It will take $ 1 trillion to support them
The Monterey Institute of International Studies and The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies conducted a study on the cost allocation of keeping US strategic nuclear forces (SNF) operational in over the next 30 years. During this period, the Americans plan to spend about one trillion dollars for these purposes, which is supposed to be spent on the purchase of new carriers of nuclear weapons, the improvement of aviation nuclear weapons and warheads of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in service.
Purchases of new carriers and warheads (BB) for them will peak within four to six years after 2020, from about 2024 to 2029, when the Ministry of Defense (MoD) plans to acquire five strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs), 72 long-range strategic bomber and 240 ICBMs. If the plans are implemented, the United States plans to spend three percent of its annual defense budget on the purchase of new strategic systems, which is comparable to the cost of purchasing new strategic systems in the 1980s, during the reign of Ronald Reagan.
Prior to the sequestration of the defense budget, the Obama administration planned to replace in-service systems at a faster rate. Analysts point out that the new procurement schedule carries significant risks and is likely to result in even higher costs, lower combat capabilities and a slower deployment of replaceable nuclear force components.
The projected cost of technical support for the systems in service, taking into account programs to extend the life cycle of nuclear weapons, as well as the necessary replacements in each of the components of the US nuclear triad, will range from $ 872 billion to $ 1.082 trillion in the coming 30th anniversary (Table 1) …
US Strategic Nuclear Forces in the Next Thirty Years
According to the table, the estimated annual cost of maintenance of components of the strategic nuclear forces will be $ 8-9 billion. At the same time, according to the data of the Budgetary and Financial Department of the Congress, the United States will spend 12 billion dollars annually to maintain the strategic nuclear forces. According to experts, $ 12 billion will be spent on next-generation systems that will replace the components of the nuclear triad that are currently in service. At the same time, about $ 8 billion in the budgets of the US Navy and Air Force will be required for the maintenance of modern strategic nuclear forces (Table 2).
US Strategic Nuclear Forces in the Next Thirty Years
SSBN
The United States has 14 Ohio-class SSBNs in its strategic nuclear forces, each of which has 24 launch silos for launching Trident II D5 SLBMs with W76 or W88 warheads. These boats are based in Bangor, Washington and Kings Bay, Georgia.
In accordance with the new Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START), the United States plans to maintain the combat capability of all 14 Ohio-class SSBNs with 240 SLBMs deployed on them, with the simultaneous conversion or complete removal of four silos on each submarine.
The annual cost of supporting the naval component of the strategic nuclear forces for the period of the implementation of the promising MO FYDP (Future Years Defense Program) program ranges from $ 2.9 to $ 3 billion, or $ 14.6 billion for the entire period under review. These costs include technical support for SSBNs and SLBMs excluding personnel costs, the long-term costs of decommissioning and decommissioning the reactor, pensions and medical costs for retiring military personnel.
US Strategic Nuclear Forces in the Next Thirty Years
In accordance with the plans of the Ministry of Defense, the Ohio SSBN is scheduled to be decommissioned from the fleet from 2027 to 2042. Removal of SSBNs from service will occur at a rate of one boat per year. The US Navy is going to replace the existing SSBNs with promising SSBN (X) boats in the amount of 12 units. Ongoing SSBN (X) funding is focused on technology development, including a unified missile bay and full electric propulsion system.
The purchase of the first (lead) SSBN (X) SSBN has been postponed from 2019 to 2021 for financial and other reasons. As a result, the Navy now plans to operate with less than 12 SSBNs from 2029 to 2041, reducing their number to 10.
The total cost of replacing SSBNs with SSBN (X) type submarines is estimated at $ 77-102 billion, with the cost of one boat being $ 7.2 billion. The Navy is targeting annual operating and maintenance costs for each SSBN (X) at $ 124 million, or nearly $ 1.5 billion for 12 boats. At the same time, the Navy hopes to reduce the cost of both the boat itself and the costs of its operation and support. It is planned to allocate $ 6 billion for R&D under the FYDP program, as well as $ 1.6 billion for advance purchases.
US Strategic Nuclear Forces in the Next Thirty Years
The cost of the SSBN (X) program does not include the cost of replacing the D5 SLBM. These missiles will be in service until 2042, in connection with which R&D, testing and evaluation of a new SLBM may begin no earlier than 2030. While there are no cost projections for this promising SLBM, the DoD budget indicates annual requests in the range of $ 1.2 billion over the entire FYDP period for the annual purchase of 24 D5 SLBMs.
These costs can be viewed as a rough estimate of the cost of a promising SLBM and are included in the SSBN procurement item. Relatively recently, representatives of the Navy began to hint that the high price of the promising SSBN (X) SLBM and the insufficiently flexible schedule for replacing the Trident missiles with it would have an adverse effect on other important shipbuilding programs. In September 2013, a number of reports mentioned that the Navy was planning to make a request for a special additional allocation of funds for the purchase of Trident SLBMs for replacement SSBNs.
Strategic bombers
The aviation component of the strategic nuclear forces includes 94 heavy strategic bombers with nuclear weapons, including 76 B-52H (Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana and Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota) and 18 B-2A (Whiteman Air Force Base in the state Missouri). Under the terms of the new START Treaty, the United States intends to maintain the combat readiness of 60 bombers.
The annual costs for this aircraft fleet will be $ 3.5 billion during 2014-2018, or $ 16.5 billion.
US Strategic Nuclear Forces in the Next Thirty Years
The US Air Force intends to maintain the operation of the B-52H and B-2A fleet at least until 2040 and 2050, respectively. According to the existing plans to strengthen or replace the composition of the aviation component of the strategic nuclear forces, the United States plans to adopt the LRS-B (Long Range Strike-Bomber) long-range strike bomber. It is unclear how long this aircraft will take to develop, as the details of the program are classified. At the same time, according to the Air Force budget, this program will require $ 10 billion over the next five years.
Published in 2012, a 30-year plan for annual financing of the Air Force and the acquisition of aircraft equipment is allocated $ 55 billion for purchases and this service plans to acquire 80-100 new bombers. These estimates do not take into account R&D, while independent analysts estimate costs for this expense item between $ 20 billion and $ 45 billion. Taking into account the data set forth in a study by the US Congressional Budget Office from 2006, the total cost of the promising long-range subsonic bomber program will be $ 92 billion, of which $ 61 billion will be purchased for the purchase, and 31 billion for R&D.
ICBM
As part of the ground component of the strategic nuclear forces, the United States has 450 mine-based Minuteman III ICBMs. These missiles are deployed in three wings, 150 missiles each, at Warren, Wyoming, Minot, North Dakota, and Malmstrom, Montana. Under the terms of the new START Treaty, the United States plans to leave in service with up to 420 ICBMs. During the period of implementation of the promising program of the Ministry of Defense FYDP, the annual cost of supporting the fleet of ICBMs will amount to $ 1, 7-1, 9 billion, and a total of $ 8, 9 billion. The Air Force intends to maintain the combat readiness of the Minuteman III ICBM fleet until 2030 and recently completed a program to extend their life cycle.
At the end of 2013, the Air Force began to analyze the AoA (Analysis of Alternatives) alternatives to determine the concept of a promising ICBM, but to date, the plan for replacing the ground component of the strategic nuclear forces has not been determined. This will only happen after the completion of the AoA study planned for the current year.
There are no cost estimates for the promising ICBM program, which will replace Minuteman III. According to the report, in 2013 and 2014, less than $ 0.1 billion were allocated for conceptual studies of a promising ICBM.
The latest ICBM procurement program was initiated in the United States in the 1980s and included the acquisition of MX / Peacekeeper ICBMs and the Midgetman small ICBM. Based on the cost of the Piskiper ICBM and the projected price of the mine-based Midgetman ICBM, the ground component of the strategic nuclear forces with 400 promising ICBMs will cost $ 20-70 billion excluding the basing method, which has not yet been determined.
A certain part of the expenditures for the provision of strategic nuclear forces in the next 30 years will be spent on work to maintain the service life of nuclear warheads, carried out by the administrative bodies to ensure nuclear safety. This work is being carried out as part of the Life Extension Program (LEP) and will cost between $ 70 billion and $ 80 billion.
In general, as noted in the report, the United States will spend about one trillion dollars from 2013 to 2042 on the maintenance of strategic nuclear forces and the purchase of a new generation of bombers - carriers of nuclear weapons, SSBNs, SLBMs and ICBMs, which are gradually being introduced into the strategic nuclear forces.
