The non-aggression pact between Germany and the Soviet Union of August 23, 1939, signed by the heads of foreign affairs agencies - V. M. Molotov and I. von Ribbentrop, has become one of the main charges brought against I. Stalin and the USSR personally. For the liberals and external enemies of the Russian people, this pact is a topic with the help of which they are trying to force Russia to repent, thereby including it among the aggressors, instigators of the Second World War.
However, in most cases, critics of this agreement do not take into account the geopolitical realities of the time when similar agreements with Germany existed in Poland, England and other states. They look at the pact from the height of our still relatively prosperous time. To understand the need for this agreement, it is necessary to imbue the spirit of 1939 and analyze several possible scenarios for the actions of the Soviet Union.
To begin with, we must remember that by 1939 there were three main forces in the world: 1) "Western democracies" - France, England, the United States and their allies; 2) Germany, Italy, Japan and their allies; 3) USSR. The inevitability of a clash was well understood in Moscow. However, Moscow had to delay as much as possible the beginning of the Union's entry into the war in order to use this time to implement the program of industrialization and rearmament of the army. The worst scenario for the USSR was a clash with the German-Italian-Japanese bloc, with the hostile position of the "countries of democracies". In addition, there was the possibility of a collision between the USSR and Britain and France, with the initial neutrality of Germany. So, during the Soviet-Finnish war, London and Paris have actually decided to go to war with the USSR, planning to help Finland by landing an expeditionary force in Scandinavia and strike at the southern borders of the USSR from the Middle East (a plan to bomb oil fields in the Baku region).
Moscow, on the other hand, pursued such a reasonable policy that initially Germany struck a blow at the Anglo-French bloc, greatly weakening its position. Only after the defeat of France, Berlin turned the Wehrmacht east. As a result, Germany and its allies found themselves at war with two forces of global significance. This predetermined the outcome of the Second World War. The Anglo-Saxons hated the USSR and dreamed of dismembering it just like the German military-political leadership (if not more), but were forced to become Moscow's allies in order to save face in case of a bad game. The masters of the United States and Great Britain received a lot of benefits from the Second World War. Still, the main goal was not achieved. The USSR not only was not destroyed and dismembered into national "bantustans" controlled by the "world community", but in the fire of war it became stronger, received the status of a superpower. The USSR continued to build a fairer world order, reinforced by the status of the winner of the "brown plague".
Options for the development of events if the USSR had not signed a non-aggression pact
Scenario one. The USSR and Germany do not sign a non-aggression pact. Soviet relations with Poland remain hostile. The military convention of the Soviet Union with Britain and France has not been signed. In this case, the Wehrmacht smashes the Polish armed forces and captures all of Poland, including Western Belarus and Western Ukraine. On the western border of Germany, a "strange war" begins, when the British and French are not dropping bombs on German troops and cities, but leaflets and commanders instead of organizing offensive operations, solving the problem of entertaining the soldiers. It is obvious that Hitler has been given "permission" to strike at the USSR.
Having reached the border of the USSR, the Wehrmacht rests against the troops of the Belorussian and Kiev districts, which are put on alert in connection with the war on the adjacent territory. Having no agreement with Moscow, given the anti-fascist statements of the Soviet leadership in the pre-war period and Hitler's statements about the need for "living space" in the east, the German military are forced to consider us enemy number one. It is clear that German troops do not immediately rush into battle, it is necessary to regroup the forces, develop an invasion plan, restore order on Polish territory, especially since they have a strip of fairly strong fortified areas in front of them.
However, the German command can almost immediately improve the strategic position of its troops - Lithuania and Latvia, which have insignificant armed forces, hang over the Byelorussian SSR from the north-west. Their capture or "voluntary" annexation made it possible to bypass our troops in Belarus from the left flank; as a result, it was no longer necessary to storm the fortified areas. The Soviet command, upon an attack from the north, would itself have withdrawn the troops from a possible encirclement ring. In addition, German troops reached the Soviet border in the Sebezh area and found themselves 550 kilometers from Moscow, where there were only two natural borders - the Lovat and the upper reaches of the Western Dvina. Berezina and the Dnieper remained in the rear, which in 1941 in the Smolensk region delayed the advance of Army Group Center on the Soviet capital for three months and forced the German command to spend 44% of its strategic reserve. As a result, the plan "Barbarossa" - a blitzkrieg, got every chance of being implemented. If we take into account the fact of the possibility of the capture of Estonia by German troops and the exit of the Wehrmacht to the line for the quick capture of Leningrad, the situation would have been catastrophic even before the outbreak of hostilities. The USSR was forced to fight in even harsher conditions than happened in reality.
There is no doubt that the USSR won a victory even in such a situation, but the losses increased many times over. France and England kept their forces and resources intact and with the support of the United States, at the end of World War II they could claim control over most of the planet.
Scenario two. In this version, Moscow was supposed to take the side of Poland, as Britain and France wanted. The problem was that the Polish leadership did not want such help. Thus, in April 1939, the Polish embassy in London informed the Charge d'Affaires of Germany in the United Kingdom, Theodor Kordt, that "Germany can be sure that Poland will never allow any soldier of Soviet Russia to enter its territory." This was a firm position that Warsaw did not change even as a result of political pressure from France. Even on August 20, 1939, three days before the signing of the Soviet-German non-aggression pact and eleven days before the outbreak of World War II, Polish Foreign Minister Jozef Beck telegraphed the Polish Ambassador to France Lukasiewicz that “Poland and the Soviets are not bound by any military treaties and the Polish government does not intend to conclude such an agreement”. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that France and England were not going to give the USSR firm guarantees and sign a military convention.
In this case, the Soviet troops have to overcome the resistance of the Polish troops, wage a war on hostile territory, since the Poles do not want us to stand up for them. France and England are waging a "strange war" on the Western Front. Having entered into combat contact with the Wehrmacht, with an approximate material and technical equality of forces and manpower, and in the absence of a surprise strike from both the one and the other side, the war will gradually acquire a protracted, positional character. True, the Germans will have the possibility of a flank attack through the Baltic. The German command may try to cut off and encircle the Soviet troops in Poland.
This scenario is also very unfavorable for Moscow. The USSR and Germany will exhaust their forces in the struggle with each other, the "countries of democracies" will remain the winners.
Scenario three. Warsaw, facing the threat of the complete elimination of Polish statehood, could break off allied relations with Britain and France, and join the German bloc. Fortunately, Warsaw already had experience of cooperation with Berlin during the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia. Actually, on August 18, Warsaw announced its readiness to transfer Danzig, hold a plebiscite in the Polish corridor and a military alliance with the Third Reich against the USSR. True, the Polish leadership made a reservation, London had to agree to this. It should be remembered that Polish politicians have long coveted Soviet lands and were not averse to taking part in the partition of the USSR, claiming Ukraine. But Warsaw wanted Germany to do all the dirty work - striking through East Prussia - the Baltic states and Romania. The Poles already wanted to share the skin of the dead bear, and not fight with it.
In this case, a blow to the USSR was struck by German-Polish troops, that is, Hitler received at his disposal 1 million Polish army (with the possibility of increasing its number). England and France remain officially neutral. By September 1, 1939, the Reich had 3 million 180 thousand people in the Wehrmacht. The Soviet Union could then deploy 2 million 118 thousand soldiers (peacetime staff, by the beginning of the Polish campaign, the number was significantly increased). It was the entire Red Army. Therefore, one should not forget that a significant grouping of Soviet troops was in the Far East - the Special Far Eastern Army. She stood there in case of a threat from the Japanese Empire. And the threat was serious - just before the start of the big war in Europe, military operations in Mongolia between the Soviet and Japanese armies were in full swing. The USSR was threatened with a war on two fronts. The Japanese leadership pondered the question of the main direction of the strike: south or north. The quick defeat of the Japanese grouping (battles at Khalkhin Gol) showed the power of the Soviet army, so Tokyo decided to go south, displacing England, the USA, Holland and France from the Asia-Pacific region. But the USSR had to keep significant forces in the east throughout the Great Patriotic War in order to secure its Far Eastern borders.
The Leningrad Military District was solving the problem of defending Leningrad from Finland; it was impossible to transfer significant forces from it to the west. The Transcaucasian region also could not use most of its forces for the war with Germany - there was a possibility of an attack by Turkey. He was backed up by the North Caucasian District. The Arkhangelsk, Odessa, Moscow, Oryol, Kharkov, North Caucasian, Volga, Ural, Central Asian military districts could help the special Western and Kiev districts. Siberian and Zabaikalsky were focused on supporting the Far Eastern Front. In addition, it was necessary to take into account the time factor - the rear districts needed a certain time to mobilize and send reinforcements.
In the Western and Kiev districts, which were supposed to withstand the first blow of the enemy, there were 617 thousand people. Thus, the balance of forces in terms of personnel came out in favor of Germany. Berlin could concentrate almost all available forces against the USSR, and expose its western borders.
We must not forget the negative attitude of the Baltic states towards the USSR. They could be occupied by the Wehrmacht, or voluntarily go over to its side - giving Berlin in case of mobilization 400-500 thousand people. Moreover, the worst thing was not these hundreds of thousands of soldiers, but the fact that the territory of the Baltic could be used as a convenient springboard for a roundabout maneuver and strike at the USSR.
Obviously, Moscow understood this no worse than you and I now (rather better). Stalin was a pragmatist and knew how to count very well. It would be very foolish to go to war with the German-Polish coalition in 1939. England and France remained neutral. Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Italy and Finland supported Germany. Having the geopolitical position that Soviet Russia inherited after the revolution and the Civil War, when Bessarabia, Poland, Western Ukraine, Western Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland were seized from our Motherland, which sharply worsened the military-strategic position on the western borders, and to engage in combat with such a powerful enemy as Germany was an unacceptable risk. Moscow understood that the non-aggression pact was temporary, and that the Third Reich, having solved its tasks in Western Europe, would again rush to the east. Therefore, in order to improve the military-strategic positions in the western direction, Stalin made efforts to rejoin Bessarabia, the Baltic states and part of Finland to Russia. When there is a question about the survival of an entire civilization, the problem of choice for the limitrophe states does not exist.
