The following abbreviations are used in the article: GSh - General base, RM - intelligence materials, USA - North American United States.
In the previous part, it was shown that, in accordance with the instructions of the Wehrmacht High Command, the German special services depicted the accumulation of large military groups on the southern flank of the Soviet Union border: on the territory of southern Poland, Slovakia, Carpathian Ukraine and Romania. The movement and real locations of tank and motorized troops were deliberately distorted and carefully hidden. Therefore, the RM about the presence of enemy troops at the border, received from intelligence services from 1940 to the beginning of the war to the leadership of the Red Army and the USSR, were unreliable.
In the new part, we will try to find an answer to the question: "Which country could manipulate other countries to a greater extent in order to unleash the First World War?" This was the time when the First World War was called the Great War.
The situation in Europe on the eve of the Great War
In 1879, the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy) was concluded, in contrast to which the union of Russia and France was formed in 1891-1894. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, France was obliged to deploy armed forces of 1.3 million people, and Russia - 0.7–0.8 million. Both countries were supposed to exchange RM on the countries of the Triple Alliance.
In 1904, an Anglo-French agreement was concluded, which eliminated the contradictions in matters of centennial colonial rivalry between these countries.
1.01.1907 E. Crowe (Assistant to the Deputy Foreign Secretary of England) drew up a memorandum "On the current state of Britain's relations with France and Germany." The document said:
On August 18, 1907, the Anglo-Russian agreement was concluded. Russia recognized the British protectorate over Afghanistan. Both powers recognized China's sovereignty over Tibet and agreed to the division of Persia into spheres of influence: Russian in the north, English in the south and neutral (free for Germany) in the center of the country.
Thus, England eliminated the main contradictions with the two countries, which she decided to use in the future in her own interests to fight Germany. In 1907, the Alliance of the Entente (Russia, France and England) was formed. It should be noted that England specifically signed only the naval component of the concept. Therefore, its participation in military ground operations in Europe was uncertain.
In February 1914, P. N. Durnovo (the leader of the right-wing group in the upper chamber, who participated in the meetings of the State Council) submitted a note to Emperor Nicholas II:
The note also noted:
- with the rapprochement of Russia and Japan, the rapprochement of Russia with England is of no real benefit to us did not bring;
- from the moment of rapprochement with England [involved - approx. auth.];
- the most negative consequences of rapprochement with England and a fundamental divergence with Germany affected the Middle East;
- Russian-English rapprochement for Turkey is tantamount to England's refusal to its traditional closure policy for us the Dardanelles. The formation, under the auspices of Russia, of the Balkan Union was a direct threat to the further existence of Turkey as a European state;
- Anglo-Russian rapprochement is nothing really useful for us until now did not bring … In the future, it inevitably promises us armed confrontation with Germany.
The note also reflected the main findings:
– main burden war will fall to the lot of Russia;
- vital interests of Germany and Russia nowhere do not face;
- in the field of economic interests, Russian benefits and needs do not contradict Germanic;
- even a victory over Germany promises Russia extremely unfavorable prospects;
- Russia will be plunged into hopeless anarchythe outcome of which is difficult to foresee;
- Germany, in case of defeat, will have to endure no less social upheaval than Russia;
– the peaceful cohabitation of cultural nations is most of all threatened by the desire of England to maintain its eluding dominance over the seas.
PN Durnovo correctly noted a country that would benefit from a future war. A country that will fight with someone else's hands, and his predictions were confirmed.
Having such a note and entering the Great War, Emperor Nicholas II made his greatest mistake, for which he paid with his life and the lives of his family members. Because of his mistake, a huge grief has affected almost all families living in Russia.
Thus, there was a super-goal of Foggy Albion and smaller goals of other countries participating in the future war. England wanted to eliminate its main rival - Germany, weaken Austria-Hungary, Russia and France, take away the oil-rich lands from Turkey, and reaffirm its role as the sole leader in world politics.
France wanted to return back its lands, torn away by Germany during the war of 1870-1871, and to clean up the Saar coal basin.
Russia dreamed of establishing control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. In the course of the war, France was inclined to offer England not to surrender the said straits to Russia.
Austria-Hungary wanted to settle territorial disputes with Serbia, Montenegro, Romania and Russia, as well as disperse the movement, which had a national liberation character.
Germany wanted to gain a foothold in the straits (Bosphorus and Dardanelles), weaken Russia and France. England was not dangerous for Germany, since due to the growth of the economy, she had already overtaken her in development. The figure below shows the shares of industry of different countries in world production.
The USA significantly surpassed all major countries in industrial development, had a weak army and were clearly not going to participate directly in a future world war. In 1913, Germany ranked second in terms of development, leaving behind its competitor. The French industry was almost 2, 5 times inferior to the German industry and was not a competitor to it.
Before the war, Germany mined and consumed iron ore, smelted iron and steel 1, 6–1, 7 times more than England. In 1900, the export of German capital abroad (to the countries of South-Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South America, etc.) amounted to 15 billion marks. In 1914, German capital abroad reached 35 billion marks and amounted to about 1/2 British and more than 2/3 French. On the eve of the Great War, Germany occupied a leading position in world trade in a number of industries. For example, it held the 1st place in the world for the export of products of the electrical industry.
Germany and without war easily bypassed England in all positions, and she did not need a war with this country. This war was not needed and Austria-Hungary with Russia. Therefore, England remained the only country interested in a world war.
Performances in Europe before the Great War
In Russia in the first half of 1914, about 1.5 million people took part in strikes and strikes.
In Germany for the period 1910-1913. 11,533 workers' performances took place, in which about 1.5 million people took part. In the occupied territories (Alsace and Lorraine) in the fall of 1913, a wave of anti-Prussian demonstrations swept through.
In England: in 1911 about 1 million people went on strike, and in 1912 - up to 1.5 million.
In France, 7,260 strikes took place in the six pre-war years. On the eve of the war in France, a strike movement developed in all branches of industry.
Revolutionary actions brought significant losses. Therefore, it was necessary to get rid of them.
And why is the war not a reason to divert the attention of the population to the image of a dangerous enemy?
On the eve of the great war
The assassination of Archduke F. Ferdinand on June 28, 1914 was the reason for the start of the Great War. Austria-Hungary presented an ultimatum to Serbia, in which one point was not accepted by the Serbs. This was the reason for Austria-Hungary on June 28 to declare war on Serbia.
The murder was prepared by the Serbian nationalist group "Black Hand", which, according to some sources, allegedly contacted the Serbian military intelligence. Almost every inhabitant knew about the impending assassination attempt in Belgrade, and this is very strange …
Reports even from the Serbian government came to Vienna about the impending assassination attempt. The special services of Austria-Hungary also received information about the impending assassination attempt, but security measures were not increased, and the visit of the Archduke was not canceled …
The emperor of Austria-Hungary disliked his heir. The heir did not enjoy the love of fellow citizens.
Archduke Ferdinand believed that Austria-Hungary would not survive the war with Russia. Therefore, he opposed the "war party", which included the head of the General Staff. The members of this party were sure that the war would be local: only against Serbia or Italy. Therefore, the death of the archduke could have been the interest of the ruling circles of his country.
According to the recollections of the wife of the archduke's nephew during the trip:
“The heir to the throne said:
"I must tell you one thing … I will be killed!"
There is a version that the Russian ambassador, who left on the eve of the assassination attempt, could have influenced the Serbian intelligence, but this is unlikely, since Russia knew that it could follow the start of the war with Austria-Hungary. In this case, the prospect for Russia loomed unfavorable …
It is still unknown who pushed the Serbs to the idea of killing the Archduke. After all, Ferdinand was already inclined to the idea of granting autonomy to the southern Slavs and tried to find a common language on this issue with Emperor Nicholas II.
Ferdinand did not like Russians, but said:
I AM never I will not wage a war against Russia. I will sacrifice everything to avoid this, because the war between Austria and Russia would end with the overthrow of the Romanovs, or the overthrow of the Habsburgs, or perhaps the overthrow of both dynasties … If we do something against Serbia, Russia will take its side …
Many people knew about these statements of F. Ferdinand, and such a figure as the heir or monarch of Austria-Hungary should not suit the real provocateurs of a future war.
No trace of Foggy Albion was found in this assassination attempt, but all subsequent events show that England could be interested in this murder.
6 july British Foreign Minister Lord Gray, at a meeting with the German ambassador, promised assistance and mutual understanding between the Entente and the Triple Alliance.
July 8 Gray, at a meeting with the Russian ambassador, announced the likelihood of a move by Austria-Hungary against Serbia. Simultaneously he denied the assumption of the Russian ambassador that Wilhelm II does not want war and pointed out the hostility of Germany towards Russia. Gray understood that the ambassador would report the content of the conversation to the government, which would notify Nicholas II.
July 9 another meeting of Gray with the German ambassador took place. Gray stated that England is not tied with Russia and France any allied obligations. She intends to maintain complete freedom of action. in case of continental difficulties.
July 20-22 a visit to Russia of the French President and Chairman of the Council of Ministers, who assuredthat in the event of a war with Germany France will fulfill their allied obligations.
July 24 The Austrian ambassador officially conveyed the text of the ultimatum to Serbia to the British government, hoping that it would fulfill the promised mediation mission.
Gray, during a meeting with the German ambassador, pointed out the possibility (of Russia, Austria-Hungary, Germany and France), without specifying at the same time, whose side will England support and will support generally.
A meeting of the Council of Ministers of Russia was held, at which it was decided to propose to Serbia not to resist in the event of an Austrian invasion, but to seek help from the great powers. It was decided to prepare for the mobilization of the fleet and four military districts: Kiev, Odessa, Moscow and Kazan.
July 25 the Russian and French governments asked Gray to condemn Austrian policies. Russian Foreign Minister Sazonov told the British ambassador that a clear statement by England about its position could have a decisive influence on German policy and prevent war in Europe.
After the end of the war, S. D. Sazonov wrote:
If England … took a firm position next to Russia and France, there would be no war, and vice versa, if England did not support us at this moment, streams of blood would flow, and, in the end, she would still be involved in the war …
The misfortune was that Germany was convinced that she could count on England's neutrality.…
26 July English King George V assured Prince Henry (brother of the German Kaiser) that England.
July 28th The German government turned to Austria-Hungary with a proposal to confine itself to the occupation of Belgrade in quality and begin negotiations with Serbia.
Sazonov met with the ambassadors of England, France, Germany and Austria-Hungary. Before the meeting, the British Ambassador warned his French counterpart that it was necessary.
After the meeting, the British ambassador told Gray that he intended to fight if Austria attacked Serbia.
July 29 Gray told the German ambassador that the British government.
In the evening, Nicholas II sent a telegram to William II with a proposal.
On the night of July 29-30, a telegram from Nicholas II arrived in Berlin, in which he mentioned the undertaken in Russia since July 25 and partial mobilization against Austria-Hungary. Nikolai tried to be open to Wilhelm.
Wilhelm wrote on the telegram:
"The tsar … already 5 days ago took military measures, which" are now in force "against Austria and against us … I can no longer engage in mediation, because the tsar who called for him is secretly mobilizing behind my back."
July 30th Wilhelm sent a return telegram in which he noted that a mobilization against Austria had been announced in Russia. Therefore, he placed the responsibility for making the final decision in favor of peace or war on the Russian emperor.
In turn, the German Chancellor replied to the Ambassador in St. Petersburg that.
The Russian Ambassador to Germany told Sazonov by telegraph that the decree on the mobilization of the German army had been signed.
S. D. Sazonov:
Around noon on July 30, a separate issue of the German officialdom Lokal Anzeiger appeared in Berlin, in which it was reported about the mobilization of the German armies and navy …
Soon after sending the telegram, the Russian ambassador was summoned to the telephone and heard the refutation of the news of the German mobilization …
The Russian ambassador sent the new telegram to the telegraph, but it was detained somewhere and came to the addressee with a significant delay. At this time, in St. Petersburg, on the basis of information received from Berlin, a decision was made on a general mobilization, the first day of which was scheduled for July 31st. Of course, they learned about it in Berlin …
King George V of England wrote to Berlin:
My government is doing everything possible to invite Russia and France to suspend further military preparations if Austria agrees to be content with the occupation of Belgrade and neighboring Serbian territory as a pledge to satisfy its demands. Other countries, meanwhile, will suspend their military preparations.
Hopefully Wilhelm uses his immense influence to persuade Austria to accept this offer, thereby proving that Germany and England work togetherto prevent an international catastrophe …
Partial mobilization began in France.
31 july Austria-Hungary announced the beginning of a general mobilization.
Germany issued an ultimatum to Russia: stop mobilization or Germany will declare war on Russia.
S. D. Sazonov:
The German ambassador handed me an ultimatum in which Germany demanded that we demobilize the reserve ranks called up against Austria and Germany within 12 hours. This requirement was not technically feasible.…
[German intelligence was obliged to know about this - Approx. auth.]
In return for the dissolution of our troops, we were not promised a uniform measure on the part of our adversaries. Austria at that time had already completed its mobilization, and Germany began it …
The British Foreign Minister clarified with Germany and France: the French ambassador gave an affirmative answer.
The German ambassador asked Gray a counter-question:
August 1 Gray refused to make such a commitment.
France and Germany announced the beginning of a general mobilization.
Germany has declared war on Russia.
Gray told the German ambassador that in the event of a war between Germany and Russia, England could remain neutral, provided that France was not attacked.
Germany agreed to accept these conditions, but in the evening of the same day, George V wrote to William that Gray's proposals were.
German troops invaded Luxembourg.
August 2 Belgium put forward an ultimatum on the passage of the German armies to the border with France. 12 hours were given for reflection.
August 3rd Belgium refused the ultimatum to Germany. Germany declared war on France, accusing her of and in.
4 august without declaring war, German troops invaded Belgium. England presented an ultimatum to Germany, demanding the observance of the neutrality of Belgium, after which it declared war.
In the German press after that conspiracy accusations rained down on British politicscunningly prepared for the destruction of Germany.
The USA has declared its neutrality.
Austria-Hungary did not want to fight with Russia, but Germany, confident in the neutrality of England, pushed it to war. Under German pressure, Austria-Hungary declared war on Russia only 6 august.
S. D. Sazonov:
Russian government … until the last minute invasion of German troops in Belgium [was - Approx. ed.] in alarming uncertainty about the intentions of the London cabinet.
Persistent convictions addressed by me to the English government, declare about the solidarity of his interests with the interests of Russia and France and thus open the eyes of the German government to the terrible danger of the path, on which he was put by the self-confidence of the Berlin General Staff and the German statesmen, had no success in London …
It can be seen that the provocative position of England did not allow to avoid the outbreak of the Great War.
Hitler thought the same when he sent a letter in August 1939 to Prime Minister Chamberlain.
In response to the message, Chamberlain replied (1939-22-08):
« It was pointed out that if His Majesty's government had made its position clearer in 1914, a great catastrophe would have been averted.…»
The Great War began, during which more than 21.5 million people died and about 19 million were wounded. It turned out that the death and injury of tens of millions of people did not matter for the provocateur country … fell to the lot of Russia.
Reading about the events on the Western Front in 1914-1916, one cannot say that the Allied forces (France and England) successfully smashed the German troops. Allied losses exceeded German losses.
For example, in the battles of 1916, the allied forces lost about 1375 thousand people, and the losses of Germany amounted to 925 thousand and another 105 thousand prisoners. The war turned out to be not so easy and victorious as it seemed earlier. She greatly wore down the economies of all the belligerent countries.
In November-December 1916, Germany and its allies offered peace, but the Entente rejected the offer. Such a peace would not have allowed England to achieve its goals in the war.
Since 1915, during the conduct of submarine warfare by Germany, American citizens have been killed on ships carrying out transportation to England. In early 1917, Germany agreed to end submarine warfare after President Wilson threatened to take the most drastic measures. The figure below shows data on GDP and the rate of change in GDP of the USA on the eve of and during the Great War.
The figure shows that the GDP growth rate at the end of 1916 became negative and, possibly, this factor influenced President Wilson's statement about submarine warfare. The following year, shipments of goods to England and France increased, leading to an increase in production in the USA.
The USA was in no hurry to enter the war, playing, according to Wilson, a role. But once it was necessary to enter a war in order to be among the winners and to participate in deciding the fate of the losing countries. It was also required to diminish the appetites of the victorious countries. A good reason was needed to enter the war, since the number of opponents and supporters of entering the war in Congress was comparable.
In late 1916, German Foreign Minister Zimmermann drew up a plan to bring Mexico to the side of Germany if the USA entered the war. On January 17, 1917, he sent a telegram to the German ambassador in the USA.
The telegram said:
We intend to start a merciless submarine war on February 1. In spite of everything, we will try to keep the USA in a state of neutrality. However, in case of failure, we will propose to Mexico: to wage war together and to make peace together. From our side, we will provide Mexico with financial assistance and assure that after the end of the war it will receive back the territories it lost in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona …
The ambassador was instructed to contact the President of Mexico to find out his opinion on joining the war on the side of the Triple Alliance.
As the war on the western front came to a positional impasse, Germany decided to influence the British government through a naval blockade and on February 1 resumed unrestricted submarine warfare, which caused civilian casualties, including American passengers. In February 1917, the USS Housatonic and California ships were sunk by German submarines. At the end of March, President Wilson proposed that Congress strengthen the armament of American ships so that they could withstand attacks from German submarines.
The deaths of American citizens during the introduction of submarine warfare could not help much to enter the war for the USA. This follows indirectly from a fragment of a telegram from 1940-21-05 by a German diplomat in Washington, who was in charge of the Abwehr:
“The year 1917 shows that American public opinion on the question of entering the war in a significant lesser degree was fueled by Germany's submarine war rather than by imaginary or actual acts of sabotage."
President Wilson had an idea about the leading role of the United States in the world, which could be achieved with a powerful economy and being in the group of countries that won the Great War. It would be better if the rest of the winners were in strong debt dependence … The future President F. Roosevelt was also a supporter of the idea of the leading role of the United States in the world.
Zimmermann's telegram was intercepted by British intelligence, deciphered and on February 19 shown to the secretary of the US Embassy in London. But he considered it a ploy of British intelligence.
On February 20, a copy of this telegram was unofficially sent to the Ambassador of the USA, who retold its contents to President Wilson, and again the telegram was perceived as a fake.
On March 29, the German Foreign Minister made a grave mistake in confirming the text of the telegram. He was fired on the same day.
On April 2, 1917, Wilson raised the issue of declaring war on Germany before Congress.
On April 6, Congress agreed, and the USA entered the Great War. After the entry of the USA into the Great War, the fate of the countries of the Triple Alliance was decided. The first American divisions arrived on the western front in October 1917. Allied deliveries increased in the spring of 1917.
In the spring of 1917 (April 16 - May 9), France and England conducted a new offensive operation, but again they did not achieve much success. The Allies lost about 340 thousand people (including wounded), and Germany - 163 thousand (including 29 thousand prisoners). Rebellions broke out in the French army and the soldiers refused to obey. A wave of strikes also swept through the military factories.
The USA from December 1916 to June 1919 provided huge loans to the Allies. The total debt of the allies (including interest) amounted to $ 24.262 billion.
In January 1918, the American president presented to Congress a general declaration of the country's goals in the war. In October of the same year, the countries of the Triple Alliance turned directly to Wilson with a proposal for peace. After Germany agreed to conclude peace on the basis of Wilson's proposals, an envoy went to Europe to communicate with the countries participating in the war.
During the war years, the USA turned from a debtor to a creditor. From the moment of its formation to the beginning of the war, capital was imported into the country from Europe. In 1914, foreign investment in American securities exceeded $ 5.5 billion, and the debt was $ 2.5-3 billion. US foreign trade surplus in 1915-1920. amounted to $ 17.5 billion. The Federal Reserve System, which appeared in December 1913, after the end of the Great War, became not only an intra-American financial regulator, but actually eliminated the dominance of London in economic terms, which had lasted for many decades.
After the war, the USA became the leader of the great powers. Among the great countries, Austria-Hungary, Germany and Russia disappeared. France and England achieved their goals in the war, but they became major debtors.
For England, the victory turned out to be "Pyrrhic."
It was clear that this would not suit the gentlemen. And once they had to try to return England to the role of leader …
