One of the main defense news in 2018 was the entry into service of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) of the Kinzhal hypersonic complex. The X-47M "Dagger" hypersonic aviation system is based on the Iskander ground-based missile system. The complex includes a missile redesigned for aviation use and a MIG-31 aircraft (MIG-31K modification) upgraded for its use.
The appearance of the "Dagger" complex has caused heated debate. First of all, the questions related to the concept of "hypersonic", regarding the missile of the "Dagger" complex. Usually "hypersonic" is the name given to aircraft that maintain a high speed (above Mach five) for most of the flight path. In this case, a hypersonic ramjet engine is used. An example is the American prototype X-51 missile.
Also, the promising Russian anti-ship missile "Zircon" can most likely be attributed to the classic hypersonic aircraft (reliable data on this missile are not yet available).
Based on this, it would be more correct to say that the Dagger missile is aeroballistic, like the Kh-15 missiles developed by the USSR. On the other hand, the classification of an aircraft as a hypersonic weapon based on the power plant is not a dogma, more importantly which part of the trajectory is overcome at hypersonic speed. If most of the trajectory of the "Dagger" missile complex passes at a speed of more than Mach 5, then the developers' claims to "hypersound" are quite justified.
The second unknown quantity of the "Dagger" complex is the targeting system. If the inertial navigation system (INS) in combination with positioning by GLONASS satellites is quite enough to hit stationary objects, then the declared possibility of hitting mobile targets of the "ship" type raises questions. If the missile of the "Dagger" complex hits the target at hypersonic speed, then the question arises of how optical or radar guidance works through a plasma cocoon that appears around the missile when moving at high speeds due to temperature heating. If, when reaching the target, the speed of the missile is reduced to ensure the operation of the guidance means, then the question arises of how vulnerable the Dagger missile becomes for the enemy's air defense.
On the other hand, if the developer did not cheat, meaning by the defeat of ships stationary objects at the pier, then perhaps some solution to the problem of the permeability of the plasma cocoon has been found. Perhaps the task of control and guidance through the plasma cocoon was solved during the development of the Zircon hypersonic missile, and its solution was used to create the Dagger missile complex.
According to some reports, the missile of the "Dagger" complex is equipped with an optical homing target in the final section with a resolution of one meter. In this case, the question arises which channels are used in the optical seeker - visible range, thermal, or a combination of both.
The flight time of the "Dagger" missile, when launched from a distance of 1000 km and an average flight speed of Mach 5, will be approximately 10 minutes. If we assume that target designation was issued at the time of launch, then during this time the ship can move a maximum of 10 km., I.e.the search area will be a circle with a diameter of 20 km. If the target's speed is lower, or the missile is not detected immediately, but at a distance of, for example, 500 km, then the search area will decrease to 8-10 km. If the average missile speed of the "Dagger" complex is higher than Mach five, the target search area will be further reduced.
Regardless of whether the Kinzhal missile is completely hypersonic, and whether it is capable of hitting moving targets, it is safe to say that the Dagger complex, like its ground prototype Iskander complex, is formidable and effective weapons, at least for hitting stationary ground targets. Of the advantages over the existing air-launched cruise missiles, one can name a significantly shorter time required to hit a target, due to the high speed of the "Dagger" missile complex.
The modernized MIG-31K interceptor became the first carrier of the "Dagger" missile complex. To reduce the weight of the MIG-31K, part of the equipment was dismantled, including the radar station. The plane carries one missile of the "Dagger" complex. Due to the dismantling of the equipment, the use of the MIG-31K, upgraded for the "Dagger", as an interceptor, becomes impossible.
Whether such a reshuffle is expedient given the shortage of fighters and interceptors in Russia is a difficult question. Perhaps the leadership of the armed forces is so confident in the effectiveness of the Dagger complex that they are ready to donate some of the interceptors for this. At the moment, ten MIG-31K are on duty in the Southern Military District. The exact number of interceptors planned for modernization is unknown, numbers were called up to 100 pieces. If this figure is collected by aircraft from storage (there are about 250 pieces of MIG-31 in storage), then this will be a good solution, but if the MIG-31 aircraft, which are currently used as interceptors, are converted, then the last armed forces will practically not remain …
In my opinion, the MiG-31 is interesting primarily as an interceptor. In the near future, many high-speed high-altitude targets may appear, including hypersonic missiles of a potential enemy. By upgrading the MIG-31 radar with an active phased antenna array (AFAR) and appropriate weapons, it is possible to obtain a complex capable of dealing with such threats at distant approaches.
The modernized supersonic bomber-missile carrier Tu-22M3M is named as another promising carrier of missiles of the "Dagger" complex.
According to media reports, it is planned to deploy up to four missiles of the "Dagger" complex. The maximum payload of the Tu-22M3M is 24 tons. The armament of the Tu-22M3 with three X-22 missiles weighing about six tons each was considered to be loaded "into overload", which was reflected in a decrease in the range and speed of flight. Similarly, the suspension of four missiles of the "Dagger" complex will most likely affect the flight characteristics of the Tu-22M3M, and to obtain the maximum range of action, the missile-carrying bomber will be armed with two missiles.
It should be noted that the use of the Tu-22M3M bomber-missile carrier as a carrier is more expedient than the MIG-31K, since in this case the armed forces do not lose the interceptors so necessary for the country, and the range and combat load of the aircraft + missile complex significantly increase. Until 2020, it is planned to upgrade thirty missile-carrying bombers to the Tu-22M3M version.
Can the Dagger complex be adapted for other carriers? Perhaps the option of equipping Sukhoi aircraft with the Dagger, for example, Su-30, Su-34 or Su-35, will be considered. However, this can hardly be considered an effective solution. With all its merits, a fighter can carry a maximum of one missile, while completely losing its maneuverable characteristics. Their modernization is better directed towards equipping radars with AFAR and modern air-to-air missiles. The service life of the Su-24 front-line bombers is coming to an end, and it hardly makes sense to equip them with such modern weapons.
Thus, only the Tu-95MS / MSM and Tu-160M strategic missile-carrying bombers remain as candidates for modernization.
It can be argued that these machines are a constituent element of the nuclear triad, and it is inappropriate to "distract" them for other tasks. It must be admitted that the role of missile bombers in the nuclear triad is minimal. Aircraft scattered across the airfield represent an excellent target for both nuclear and conventional weapons. The only way to preserve the aviation component of the nuclear triad in the event of a surprise strike is to keep the aircraft in 10-15 minute readiness for launch, or even better on duty in the air. But no one will do this because of the enormous cost of each hour of flight and the rapid deterioration of the resource of the "strategists".
Moreover, even during the local conflict in Syria, strategic bombers were occasionally involved. Of course, the goal was more likely to demonstrate weapons, and improve the skills of the pilots, but the fact remains. And the presence in the arsenal of the Tu-95MS / MSM and Tu-160M non-nuclear long-range cruise missiles such as the Kh-555 and Kh-101 clearly indicates the possibility of their use in non-nuclear conflicts. In the event of a local conflict with a technically advanced enemy, the capabilities of strategic aviation will come in handy.
It can be concluded that the use of strategic missile-carrying bombers in local conflicts is fully justified. Yes, and it is stupid to let such firepower stand idle, waiting for a nuclear apocalypse, when local wars are already underway, and the losses in them are quite real.
Let's go back directly to the planes. Currently, the Russian Aerospace Forces is armed with 46 Tu-95MS and 14 Tu-95MSM. The decommissioned modification of the Tu-95K-22 could carry three X-22 missiles, two on an external sling and one in a semi-submerged state in the fuselage. As with the Tu-22M3, the loading of three missiles exceeds the mass of the normal combat load of the Tu-95 and reduces the range of the aircraft. Moreover, the mass of the Kh-22 missile exceeds the mass of the Kinzhal missile complex, i.e. theoretically, it turns out that such a modernization is possible.
On the other hand, the altitude and flight speed of the Tu-95MS / MSM are significantly inferior to the capabilities of the MIG-31K and Tu-22M3M aircraft. If there is a certain minimum threshold of the height and speed of the carrier required to launch the Dagger missile and achieve the declared characteristics, and the flight data of the Tu-95MS / MSM do not meet these requirements, then the placement of the Dagger missile on this aircraft becomes impossible … Otherwise, everything depends on the complexity and cost of such modernization, i.e. cost / efficiency criterion. It should be borne in mind that, taking into account the low flight speed of the Tu-95MS / MSM, the total time of the combat mission by the airplane + missile complex will noticeably increase, while the huge EPR of the Tu-95MS / MSM airframe will make it an easy prey for the aviation of a potential enemy.
There remains only one candidate - the Tu-160M / M2 strategic bomber-missile carrier. The Russian Aerospace Forces is armed with 17 Tu-160s, all aircraft are planned to be upgraded to the Tu-160M version. Also, another 50 aircraft of the Tu-160M2 modification are planned for construction.
The altitude and flight speed of the Tu-160M / M2 are comparable to those of the MIG-31K and Tu-22M3M. At the same time, the radius of action and the combat load are significantly greater.
An extract from the flight characteristics of the Tu-160:
Air defense breakthrough at speed:
- high height (Hi) - 1, 9M;
- at low altitude (Lo) with automatic rounding of the terrain - up to 1 M.
Practical ceiling - 15,000 m (18,000 m according to other sources).
Flight range (without refueling):
- Hi-Hi-Hi mode, speed <1M, PN weight 9000 kg - 14000-16000 km;
- Hi-Lo-Hi mode (including 2000 km at an altitude of 50-200 m) or at a speed> 1M - 12000-13000 km;
- Hi-Hi-Hi mode, PN weight 22400 kg with maximum takeoff weight - 12300 km;
- with a maximum payload - 10,500 km.
Operating range with one refueling in Lo-Lo-Lo or Hi-Lo-Hi mode - 7300 km;
The radius of action at a cruising speed of 1.5M, without refueling - 2000 km.
From the above characteristics, it can be seen that the capabilities of the Tu-160M / M2 make it possible to implement a wide variety of scenarios of its use when departing from the Engels airbase (Saratov region).
With the fastest approach to the target with a cruising speed of 1.5M, the total radius of destruction of the "Dagger" complex will be 3000-3500 km. This mode will provide a minimum response time to a threat and will allow you to act in the interests of the three fleets. The maximum time, from the moment of takeoff (excluding the preparation time of the aircraft for departure), to the moment the target is hit at a distance of 3000-3500 km, in this mode will be approximately 2-2.5 hours.
In the most economical mode, when flying at subsonic speed at high altitude, the radius of damage will be 7000-7500 km. This mode will allow using the Tu-160M / M2 with the Dagger complex in the interests of all four fleets.
When using air refueling, the range of the Tu-160M / M2 "+" Dagger "bundle will increase significantly.
Thus, the use of the "Dagger" complex as part of the Tu-160M / M2 aircraft will create a threat to the fleets and ground bases of a potential enemy at a great distance from the borders of the Russian Federation. The significant range allows the creation of a flight route for the Tu-160M / M2, bypassing the enemy's air defense and fighter aviation zones.
How difficult is the technical integration of the Dagger complex with the Tu-160M / M2? The Tu-160M / M2 armament currently used is smaller and lighter than the Dagger missiles. Theoretically, the size of the weapons compartment allows placing 3-4 missiles of the "Dagger" complex, but the question of compatibility with the MKU-6-5U drum launcher remains. If dismantling or significant modernization of the launcher is required, then the feasibility of integrating the Dagger complex may be questionable.
Another factor against the integration of the "Dagger" and the Tu-160M / M2 "is the potentially early adoption of the (hopefully) Zircon hypersonic missile. Perhaps the tactical and technical characteristics will make it more attractive for integration with the Tu-160M / M2 than the integration of the Dagger complex. If the declared possibility of launching the Zircon rocket from standard UVP is real, then its mass and size characteristics should be comparable to the missiles of the Caliber complex (diameter 533 mm), and Kh-101/102 (diameter 740 mm), which will allow them to be placed in six units in one Tu-160M / M2 armament compartment, the full ammunition load will be twelve Zircon missiles.
On the other hand, it is necessary to take into account the cost of the Zircon and Dagger missiles. If the "Zircon" missiles are "gold", then this will not allow them to be in service in significant quantities, while the "Dagger" missile should be comparable in cost to the "Iskander" missile, which is mass-produced. The ammunition load of the "Dagger" missiles on the Tu-160M / M "will most likely be no more than six units.
The question of target designation remains relevant. In the absence of effective means of external target designation, the development of any weapon systems intended for use outside the detection zone of the carrier's reconnaissance means is meaningless. This is equally true for the Aerospace Forces, the Navy, and the ground forces.
The effectiveness of the "Dagger" complex on a moving target remains in question. In order to dispel doubts, the military could conduct a demonstration of tests of the "Dagger" on the decommissioned ship. I do not think that such a demonstration can reveal any global secrets, but doubts about the effectiveness of the Dagger complex will largely remove.
It is not the first time for the Russian Navy to use aircraft of the "strategic bomber" class for solving its tasks. Apart from the aforementioned Tu-95K-22, the long-range anti-submarine aircraft Tu-142, created on the basis of the Tu-95, has been actively used and is in service to this day. Currently, the Russian Navy is armed with 12 Tu-142MK / MZ (anti-submarine version) and 10 Tu-142MR (repeater aircraft). At the same time, all Tu-22M3 aircraft were withdrawn from the Navy and transferred to the Russian Aerospace Forces.
It is possible that, taking into account the construction of a large series of Tu-160M2 (50 units), it is advisable to use some of them in the interests of the Navy. If the integration of the Dagger complex does not require significant modifications to the Tu-160M / M2, then all aircraft can be adapted for its use: both modernized and newly built ones.
