Hypersonic weapons have long taken pride of place among other types of Wunderwaffe, which are supposed to plunge the enemy into dust with lightning speed. The recent tests of the Kh-47M2 "Dagger" rocket in November 2019, when the MiG-31K from the Olenya airbase on the Kola Peninsula fired rockets at the ruins of the town of Khalmer-Yu, caused a certain uplift and heated discussion. Like, we now have …
Of course, like any other weapon, the Dagger is not irresistible at all. He needs certain conditions to achieve success.
"Dagger" can be intercepted
In stories about hypersonic missiles, there is often such an implicit, but, I think, deliberate exaggeration. The Kh-47M2 can accelerate to Mach 10-12, but this does not mean that the rocket will always have this speed. "Dagger" is a solid-fuel rocket, from which it follows that the engine does not burn for long, 15-20 seconds. It is at this time that the rocket reaches such a high speed, and then, with the engine inoperative, the rocket flies along a ballistic trajectory to the target. That is, Mach 10-12 is the peak speed shortly after the engine runs.
Further, due to the resistance of the atmosphere and the maneuvers performed by the rocket, its speed drops, and drops strongly. The falling speed of short-range ballistic missile warheads (and the Kh-47M2 is closest in design to ballistic missiles, only launched from aircraft) is 3-4 Mach, and even less guided warheads are 2-3 Mach. The creators declare the KVO "Dagger" at 1 m, that is, most likely, the speed of the warhead directly at the target will also be Mach 2-3, and hardly more.
The missile's range is declared as 1000 km from the launch point. Even if the rocket had made all this way at a speed of 12 Mach (4 km / s - more than half of the first cosmic speed or 245 km / min), the flight time would be 4 minutes. In reality, since the rocket loses speed and maneuvers, the flight time will be 6-7 minutes or even more. A typical target, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer or a Gerald F. Ford-class aircraft carrier (let me remind you that the carriers are armed with the RIM-162 ESSM air defense system), have more than enough time to capture the Dagger with radar and aim anti-missiles at it.
The Kh-47M2 can perform several maneuvers to evade anti-missile missiles (these are probably programmed maneuvers, and not a reaction to an anti-missile launch; then, after several launches, the enemy will calculate the algorithm for these evasions). But all the same, at the very last segment of the trajectory, the rocket will need to go on the collision course with the target and not turn off it anymore. If this happens 10 seconds before the collision with the target, then the distance between the missile and the target at that moment, at a speed of Mach 3, is approximately 10 km (Mach 3 is approximately 1.02 km / s). In my opinion, the capabilities of American missile defense systems are sufficient to shoot down a missile flying in a straight line under such conditions, almost like in an exercise. Shooting down a missile so close is undeniably a test for American nerves. But it is technically possible. In other words, the "Dagger" is intercepted, and this must be reckoned with.
Let's shoot him down with a cannon
Possible countermeasures are by no means limited to missile defense. A good option is to maintain a high speed and actively maneuver, changing course frequently. At 30 knots, an aircraft carrier travels 6, 3 km in 7 minutes and there may not be ships at the missile aiming point.
If, when designing a missile, the idea was laid that the enemy would be at anchor and wait for the missile in the bridge, then this is obvious stupidity. The enemy, of course, will move and maneuver, which means that someone (for example, an AWACS aircraft) must track the current location of targets and give corrective instructions.
The most important thing is that the carrier of the "Daggers", the MiG-31K, is deprived of missile armament, and, therefore, is unable to fight the enemy fighters that have appeared. Without cover, the carrier is extremely vulnerable, in fact it is a training target that American pilots can shoot down a MiG-31 with a "Dagger" not only with a rocket, but even with an onboard cannon. Knowing that Russian aviation has new missiles that can potentially cause great damage to the fleet, and if they successfully hit the elevator or the aircraft hangar of an aircraft carrier, disable it for a long time, the tactics of confrontation will undoubtedly include interception of carriers by specially selected pairs or groups. fighters.
We will not even specifically discuss the use of electronic warfare, since it is combined with all the listed options.
From all this it follows that a single MiG-31 with the "Dagger" will most likely not achieve success. And even 3-4 carriers will probably not succeed either. Simply because the enemy already has standard means and long-established countermeasures. Anyone who thinks that the "Dagger" is "one shot - one aircraft carrier" or that the "Dagger" is, well, absolutely irresistible, it must be said directly that this is self-deception.
Strike in the best conditions
Any weapon has conditions in which its use is most beneficial and most effective. The "Dagger" has such conditions, of course.
As far as can be judged, it is most profitable to use the "Daggers" either in the course of a massive attack on an aircraft carrier strike group with all available means, or immediately after it. When the radars are clogged with marks and the ammunition of the anti-aircraft missiles is already close to exhaustion, the possibilities of intercepting the Daggers are objectively reduced. In the "mess" of radar marks and in the tension of the battle, SAM operators can yawn, missing the "Dagger". It is more dangerous than, say, the P-800 "Onyx", due to the greater mass of the warhead (500 kg for the "Dagger", 300 kg for the "Onyx"). If the operators of the air defense missile system missed the "Dagger" in nuclear equipment, then this could cost them the loss of the entire aircraft carrier group.
Or there may be a finishing blow after a massive attack. Damage and fires, losses, spent anti-aircraft missiles ammunition, nervous overstrain of the enemy - all this creates much more favorable conditions for an attack with Daggers. If you still take advantage of the moment when enemy aircraft are landed on aircraft carriers, then you can achieve a more than impressive effect and very serious damage to the enemy fleet with relatively few launches.
In my opinion, "Dagger" is good as a "trump card in the sleeve", that is, a means by which you can achieve a turning point in the course of hostilities in your favor.
