At the end of January, a conference of the Academy of Military Sciences (AVN) was held in Moscow. A lot of reports were read at the conference and all of them are of interest to the military and civil society, because they often concerned not only purely military aspects. Of all the speeches made at the event, in our opinion, the speeches of three responsible persons should be separately noted. These are Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Rogozin, Chief of General Staff General of the Army Nikolai Makarov and Commander of the Aerospace Defense Forces Lieutenant General Oleg Ostapenko.
D. Rogozin's opinion
At the beginning of his speech, the deputy chairman of the government urged to abandon excessive optimism. As you know, our country has the largest territory in the world, but in terms of population and, as a consequence, in terms of its density, we are far from being in the first places. The second point to pay attention to concerns resources. The Urals, Siberia and the Far East are not the poorest regions in this regard. Therefore, Rogozin believes, now or in the future, we will not have an easy life, as well as our children. Of course, those countries that would like to gain control over the aforementioned parts of Russia do not take active aggressive actions. But D. Rogozin has worked in the diplomatic field for many years, including being the representative of Russia to NATO. All this experience allows Rogozin to argue that it is still not worth suspecting the so-called partners of exceptionally good intentions.
If the former (are they the former?) Probable opponents decide to take active actions, then we will have to fight back. And here again there is no reason for optimism or even a hawkishness. Referring to General Makarov, Rogozin says that now our army has some problems with recruiting new recruits. The Deputy Prime Minister considers the events of twenty years ago to be the reason for this. At its core, it was a real revolution, and such things almost always do not go without negative consequences. One of them was the decline in the birth rate, which after 18-20 years "backfired" on the numbers of the conscription. Thus, should something happen, we will have to rely not only on the available army, but also on the reservists. Moreover, their distribution by age will clearly not be in favor of younger people.
The military-political situation in the world requires our country to resolve a number of problems as soon as possible. And no one dares to argue that all this will be easy. According to Rogozin, in order to effectively solve the existing tasks and those tasks that may arise in the future, it is necessary, first of all, to accurately predict the situation and understand what, where and how will happen. In addition to analytics, it is necessary to work out the interaction of the apparatus of the Ministry of Defense, scientific institutions of a military orientation and defense enterprises. This interaction should go in four main directions:
- Formation of the image. All of the above industries must create and develop common concepts. Both for all the armed forces as a whole, and for their individual units, up to specific types of weapons. This area also includes the formation of technical specifications for armament, organization of production, etc.;
- Strategy. The renewal of the armed forces is unthinkable without a thorough study of the methods and methods of their use in specific conditions and for specific tasks;
- Project support. Obviously, any program that is more or less significant for the country's defense should be controlled at all stages of its creation. This will make it possible to adjust the technical specifications and application concepts, and in addition, it will make it possible to avoid unnecessary expenditures of money and time, which in modern conditions is one of the highest priority needs;
- Direct participation in projects. Scientific organizations should participate in the development of new systems at all stages, from R&D to field testing.
In addition, Rogozin put forward one remarkable thesis, which, undoubtedly, can cause a lot of controversy. He believes that the Soviet defense complex was a real role model, and not only in terms of the success of projects. Another important point from the Soviet past lies in the fact that earlier the relationship between manufacturers and the customer (the Ministry of Defense) was not built on a market principle. And now, Rogozin believes, we need to return to this. The Ministry of Defense, he says, is not a casual passer-by who casually "went through the bazaar to look at some product." The military should not be the buyer of the finished product, but in full measure its customer. It is they who must form the requirements for the required equipment or weapons. Only in this case, according to Rogozin, the entire cycle of creating new products will work correctly and efficiently.
Regarding the unpleasant tendencies, Rogozin spoke as follows: it is no secret that in some areas there is a serious lag. Now, there is probably no point in trying to catch up with competitors. Perhaps at the moment we need to try to understand the current trends in the development of military equipment and weapons and try to “cut the corner”. In this case, without much loss of time, it will turn out to be more or less well integrated into the general world endeavors.
At the conference in AVN, D. Rogozin also touched upon the problem of threats that may appear in the near future. Information technologies every year occupy more and more strong positions in all spheres of human activity. In addition, there have long been various techniques that can be used to sabotage cyberspace. The most famous example is the Staksnet virus, which damaged equipment at Iranian nuclear facilities. Remarkably, no information about malfunctions was displayed on the operator consoles. Leading foreign countries a few years ago realized the full danger of such threats and seriously took up the so-called. cyber defense. Moreover, recently in NATO, a "cyber attack" is considered a sufficient reason to start a war. It turns out, Rogozin asserts, that now we cannot close our eyes to information "wars". An attack with the help of computer viruses in the long term can, at the very least, seriously disrupt the enemy's communications. It is hardly worth turning a blind eye to this area of human activity. Our country now also requires special units that will deal with the IT security of strategic areas.
General Makarov's theses
The Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, General of the Army N. Makarov, agrees with the Deputy Chairman of the Government regarding the optimistic forecasts for the future. Makarov cited Japan as an example of the complexity of Russia's geopolitical position. According to him, the Land of the Rising Sun has the same area as Lake Baikal, and its population is not much less than that of Russia. It should be noted that the general was mistaken - Japan is almost twelve times larger than Lake Baikal in area. Nevertheless, its almost 380 thousand square kilometers cannot be compared with Russia's seventeen million. On the whole, Makarov's example is not entirely successful, but it perfectly illustrates the situation.
Makarov agrees with Rogozin in assessing the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the events that followed. It is no secret that that period hit the army not only with a lack of conscripts in a few years. Due to the lack of funding, many valuable personnel were leaving the armed forces. There were also problems with the influx - according to Makarov, two-thirds of the graduates of military schools during this period, at the earliest opportunity, left for civilian life. In foreign countries at this time there was a slight slowdown in the pace of development: they considered that with the end of the Cold War, they could not invest colossal sums in their armies. However, there was no complete stop, and the former potential opponents threw the freed resources into reforming their armed forces and updating the material part. Of course, the Russian army lagged behind foreign ones, because for several years it literally had to fight for survival.
The work abroad, in particular in NATO countries, has resulted in an emphasis on the conduct of operations by the air force, the emergence of the concept of cybersecurity, as well as new "rules" of warfare. Analyzing the recent military conflicts, a clear impression is created that the initial period plays the main role in the outcome of the entire war. In addition, Makarov noted, the current wars can be divided into two stages: the short first, during which active actions are taking place, and the second, post-conflict - longer and proceeding according to its own laws. Another trend in the development of foreign armies concerns quantity and quality. On the one hand, the leading countries are reducing their armed forces, and on the other hand, new technologies, new equipment, etc. are being introduced. As a result, a smaller army has no less combat potential. The overwhelming majority of analysts believe that this is the approach that should make the army of the future out of the modern army.
The need to reform the Russian armed forces is long overdue. By the beginning of the 90s, General Makarov says, it was necessary to take some steps towards improvement. However, the events that took place at that time did not in any way contribute to the implementation of all the necessary changes. As a result, the situation has reached a critical point. At the very end of the nineties, the concept of the so-called. "Threatened period". Analysts of the Ministry of Defense have calculated that in order to preserve the defense capability of the entire state, it was necessary to invest about a trillion rubles in the defense industry and the army in just one two thousand year. It was a double-edged sword, and both were far from pleasant. Makarov recalled that the military simply did not have that kind of money (they could not even dream of such amounts), and the military-industrial complex was no longer able to ensure the successful development of a whole trillion. Describing those events, the chief of the General Staff even says that by 2000 the army was virtually powerless and unarmed.
A difficult situation, it should be said, at that time was not only in the army and the defense industry, but something had to be done before it was too late. The gradual improvement in the situation of the armed forces, according to Makarov, ultimately led to the fact that in 2008 there was finally an opportunity to begin a long-overdue reform of the entire army. It was clear that it would not be possible to do all this simply and quickly, but the work was started. Over the past three years, a lot has been done, as if not even more than in the previous 15-20 years. Almost all areas were changed, including high command and training. So, the suspension of admission to military schools helped to distribute the existing graduates to the appropriate units and remove those notorious two-thirds of the cadets who, having received lieutenant shoulder straps, did not want to continue their service. The system of the central management bodies of the Ministry of Defense was optimized - the number of their employees alone was reduced by almost four times. Makarov also refers to the introduction of outsourcing practice into army life as a serious innovation. The general considers this a very useful undertaking, because the soldiers are now busy with their direct duties, and not peeling potatoes and other economic issues. More serious structural changes were also made. Instead of six military districts, our country now has four, in which there are groupings in six main directions. Optimization of the structure of the armed forces has increased their potential, as Makarov said, more than doubled. And this is against the background of talk about the collapse of the army. A new branch of the military was created - aerospace defense. A systematic renewal of equipment is being carried out. So, over the past two years, the share of the new material part has grown from 5-6 to 16-18%. By 2015, this figure should reach 30%, and by the 20th - up to 70%.
Separately, Makarov spoke about the interaction of defense enterprises and the Ministry of Defense. There is a lot of work here and no less problems. Especially the military are annoyed by some organizations that, according to the chief of the General Staff, make "Zaporozhtsy", and the price for them is no less than that of a real Mercedes. These same "Cossacks" are poorly suited to the military, and they are in no hurry to buy them. In turn, the cunning "automobile plant" begins to shout about the dying defense industry, hungry workers, and so on. Of course, domestic producers can and should be supported by the ruble. But not at the cost of the defense capability of the whole country. General Makarov finished the topic of relations between the Ministry and enterprises as follows: “we will buy what the army and navy need”.
In strategic planning and views on the conduct of modern warfare, the Chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces considers it important to abandon the old stereotyped methods, even if they have been worked out three times. A clear example of a new method of warfare was recently demonstrated by NATO forces during the intervention in Libya. Unlike all previous operations, the ground units of the North Atlantic Alliance countries did not fight in Libya. In addition to this feature of that war, it should be noted that in addition to air attacks, active information "strikes" were inflicted on Gaddafi's forces. And, judging by the result, this method of conducting a military operation cannot be called unsuccessful - the loyalists were defeated and a tricolor flag flies over Tripoli. Another "stereotypical" point concerns weapons. Research on advanced types of weapons has been going on abroad for several years. Until the end of this decade, the United States is going to adopt the so-called. railgun, and in addition, work is underway on the topic of combat lasers. American experiments show a certain effectiveness of these types of weapons, therefore, according to Makarov, it would not hurt us to actively deal with the topic of a fundamentally new weapon.
With regard to cyber threats, our armed forces are already ready to begin their work in this area. The Russian army has the ability in the very near future to organize special units, etc. "Cyber command", which will deal with three main areas:
- Violation of enemy information systems, including the introduction of malicious software products;
- Protection of own communication systems and control systems;
- Working with domestic and foreign public opinion through the media, the Internet, etc.
But, as General N. Makarov quite rightly notes, all this will not be easy. The industry is relatively new and, therefore, there will be a lot of "talk hunters, but to do …" All the required steps must be done as quickly and efficiently as possible, because we do not have much choice. Makarov concluded his speech with a slightly pretentious, but truthful and useful thesis: “We are a country of winners. The Russian soldier was, is and will be the best soldier in the world. Every officer should know and remember about this”.
The floor to General Ostapenko
To date, in the main documents concerning the military doctrine of Russia, there are no clear definitions for the military space defense system (VKO). There are only general views on the role of these troops. Therefore, the command of the newly formed military branch as a whole and its commander, Lieutenant-General Oleg Ostapenko, will have to do a lot in the very near future.
Despite the very small "age" of the aerospace defense, there is already a general opinion regarding the tasks of these troops. They include:
- Reconnaissance of the situation in outer space, including the detection of threats of various nature (strategic missiles, spacecraft, etc.);
- Destruction of warheads of enemy strategic missiles and suppression / incapacitation / destruction of enemy spacecraft;
- Control over the airspace of Russia and its allies, warning of an air attack and other air defense tasks;
- Electronic reconnaissance of the situation, electronic protection of the aerospace defense own facilities and the protected area.
General Ostapenko believes that at the stage of gradual formation of the appearance of a new type of troops, it is necessary to work in close cooperation with the relevant scientific organizations. This will make it possible to work through all the necessary issues at the right level and with the required quality. The Aerospace Defense Forces require a thorough analysis of the current situation and accurate long-term forecasting, which, in particular, can be handled by the Academy of Military Sciences.
At the moment, in accordance with the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the Aerospace Defense Forces included two air defense-missile defense operational commands (an anti-missile defense division and three air defense brigades), the Space Command, together with the Missile Attack Warning Centers, the Main Testing Space Center, and the Plesetsk cosmodrome. … Thanks to the unification of all these structural units into one branch of the military, the defense potential in the field of air defense and missile defense has significantly improved. According to Ostapenko, in the future, the structure of the VKO will be slightly changed: now the general command and coordination of work is carried out from one command post of the VKO troops. A little later, a full-fledged three-level system of command posts will be created with the distribution of tasks into tactical, operational and strategic.
In addition to structural tasks, the VKO troops, according to their commander, have a number of purely technical problems. First of all, there are certain snags with the efficiency of work and equipment of various VKO groupings. The space echelon of the aerospace defense forces, for example, is clearly insufficiently equipped. The terrestrial material part is in the best condition, but there is still room for development. One of the highest priority areas is the completion of the creation of a low-altitude radar field along the entire length of the state border of the Russian Federation. As for the rest, everything is normal in the VKO troops so far and requires only minor improvements.
General Ostapenko singled out two "sets" of measures concerning the development of the Aerospace Defense Forces in the short and long term. The first step is to collect all the detection, engagement and communication systems at the disposal of the Aerospace Defense Forces into a single integrated complex that meets all modern requirements. After that, it will be possible to start shaping the image of the future for the East Kazakhstan region. The main directions of development for the long term, according to Ostapenko, are as follows:
- Build up the orbital constellation to better detect potential threats. For the time being, gain in the form of four spacecraft will suffice to control the planet's northern hemisphere;
- Commissioning of three new early warning and warning radar stations. Through the use of new technologies, these stations will completely close all existing gaps in the missile attack warning system;
- Modernization of existing surveillance and reconnaissance means, both for anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense, with their simultaneous unification within the limits of the possible. Next, it will be necessary to create a nomenclature of radio-electronic equipment reduced to a minimum.
In the very near future, the supply of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems will continue in the VKO unit, and by 2020 new S-500 systems will also go to the troops. In general, 2020 for the VKO troops will be the same milestone as for other branches of our armed forces. For the first few years of the remaining time until the end of the decade, the VKO command plans to focus on updating the materiel. Later, the active development of promising areas, such as new launch vehicles, will begin. At the final stage of the State Rearmament Program, while maintaining other development paths, the main efforts will be directed at integrating the command and control systems of the Aerospace Defense Forces into the overall structure of the communications and command and control systems of all the country's armed forces. According to the current plans of the VKO command, this branch of the military, as a special priority, will receive such a quantity of new equipment, thanks to which its share will grow to 90%.
