The Stockholm Peace Research Institute has published a ranking of the largest arms exporters in the world. According to him, Ukraine is no longer among the top ten merchants. The report lists the main global arms exports for the period 2014-2018. Reports of this kind are of great interest to specialists dealing with disarmament and arms control issues.
According to the report, the leader of the rating was the United States of America, which increased the volume of arms supplies by 6 percent due to the hostilities in the Middle East (the share of the United States was 36%). The second place was taken by Russia, whose share in the world market is 21%. This figure is down 6 percent from the previous one due to reduced cooperation with Venezuela and India. France closes the top three (about 7 percent of the market). The top ten arms exporters also include China, Germany, Spain, Great Britain, Israel, the Netherlands and Italy. The biggest growth in sales volume is in Israel, with sales up 60 percent over the previous five-year period.
As for Ukraine, it is currently in 12th place. The share of Ukrainian exports fell from 2.8 percent to 1.3 percent, and volumes - by 47%.
Structure of Ukrainian exports
It should be noted that there was a period of time when Ukraine was one of the five largest arms exporters. This is evidenced by the data of the State Export Control Service. In particular, for the period 2007-2013. The Ukrainian state exported 957 armored vehicles, 676 tanks, 288 units of rocket and barrel artillery (caliber more than 100 millimeters), as well as 31 helicopters (most of them Mi-24), more than 160 combat aircraft and even one warship abroad. In addition, 747 missiles and launchers were sold. The lion's share of all these weapons are Soviet-made.
Deliveries were made to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kenya, Nigeria, Congo, Ethiopia, Sudan, Thailand and Iraq. It is noteworthy that military equipment created during the period of independence was exported to Thailand and Iraq (we are talking about the Oplot and BTR-3 and BTR-4 tanks). In addition, in 2007, 100 Kh-59 aircraft were delivered to Russia.
If we talk about the last five years, then during this period, as already noted, the volume of exports decreased. At this time, 94 tanks, about 200 armored combat vehicles, about 2 dozen units of large-caliber artillery, 13 helicopters, 6 aircraft and one combat ship were sold. In addition, 63 missiles and launchers were sold.
Since the beginning of the armed conflict in Donbass, Ukraine continued to supply military equipment abroad, however, according to experts, the country fulfilled its pre-war obligations. So, in particular, in 2014-2015. 23 T-72 tanks and 12 D-30 howitzers were sold to Nigeria. In 2016, the United Arab Emirates received more than 100 armored vehicles BRDM-2, 25 T64BV-1 tanks were delivered to Congo, 34 BTR-3s to Thailand, and 5 BTR-4 armored personnel carriers to Indonesia.
In addition, Ukraine even exported aviation during this period. So, in 2014, one MiG-29 was sold to Chad, and 5 MiG-21 aircraft to Croatia. 6 Mi-8s were delivered to neighboring Belarus. The following year, 5 Mi-24 helicopters were sent to South Sudan. Since that time, according to the data of the State Export Control Service, Ukraine has not sold aviation. All supply contracts were signed before the start of the armed conflict, no new agreements were signed, and all equipment went to the troops.
Deliveries of Ukrainian products to Russia
However, there are some discrepancies between the data of the State Export Control Service and the Stockholm Institute. So, in particular, according to SIPRI, in 2014-2018. Ukraine traded with Russia. In 2016 alone, the export of Ukrainian military equipment to Russia was estimated at $ 169 million, which is even more than during the presidency of V. Yanukovych. The Ukrainian side was engaged in the supply of AI-222 turbojet engines intended for the Russian Yak-130 combat training aircraft. Representatives of Ukroboronprom emphasize that the supply contract was signed back in 2006, and the supplies were stopped after the introduction of a ban on the export of military equipment to Russia, and the Russian side could manufacture such engines on its own.
In addition to engines, according to the institute, Ukraine also supplied An-148-100E and An-140-100 aircraft, but the supplies allegedly stopped in 2014, and then Russia produced them independently under a license provided by the Antonov enterprise. According to the Ukrainian side, it was the existence of a legal agreement that was the reason why SIPRI considers the aircraft to be part of Ukrainian exports.
Also, among the products that were supplied to Russia, the institute names the shipborne gas turbine units DS-71, which are equipped with Russian frigates of project 11356. For this position, it should be noted that the experts of the Stockholm Institute determine the date of delivery of power plants and engines after the manufacture of this or that equipment and transferring them to the Russian army, and not the present moment of supplying individual spare parts and components. Therefore, according to Ukroboronprom, deliveries were made until 2014, despite the fact that they are reflected in the report in a later period.
The main reasons for Ukraine's decline in arms exports
Many experts agree that Ukraine has reduced arms exports in connection with the war in Donbas. However, besides the war, there are many other factors. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine received large stocks of weapons and military equipment. During the period of independence, almost all of these reserves have been exhausted. Ukraine's export potential remained high largely due to Soviet reserves. Ukraine sold obsolete T-80 and T-72 tanks to Africa, where they are currently being actively used.
At the same time, Ukraine does not produce much new military equipment to remain among the largest arms suppliers. And if in 2013 Ukraine was ranked 8th in the world ranking, then in 2018 it was already in 12th, having reduced export volumes by almost half.
Undoubtedly, the main reason for the decline in exports is the armed conflict in the southeast of the country. The priority of the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex is to provide for its own army, and the entire potential of the military industry has been mobilized to solve internal problems. It takes a lot of time to develop and search for spare parts and components to replace Russian counterparts.
In 2014, Ukraine continued to fulfill pre-war contracts, but practically did not sign new ones, since almost all new equipment went to the needs of the Ukrainian army. Moreover, until these needs are fully satisfied, the defense industry has no right to sell equipment abroad.
It is also important that until recently Russia was an active partner of Ukraine. The export of weapons and equipment stopped with the outbreak of events in the Donbass, and Ukraine lost most of its exports. All joint programs in the military sector were also stopped.
Another reason for the decline in the export of weapons and military equipment is the bad reputation of Ukrainian suppliers, whose reliability leaves much to be desired. In particular, we are talking about the so-called "Iraqi contract". The Ukrainian side has pledged to deliver more than 4 hundred BTR-4 to Iraq. The contract was valued at $ 2.4 billion. But of the 88 vehicles that were delivered, only 34 armored personnel carriers were serviceable. In addition, defects were found in the hulls of machinery and equipment. All responsibility for the breakdown of the agreement was shifted to officials of the Yanukovych era, but the reputation of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex was tarnished.
Another contract that was in jeopardy was the supply of tanks to Thailand. Despite the fact that the contract was signed back in 2001, it was only completed in 2018.
However, according to a number of analysts, not everything is so bad, and the Ukrainian defense industry has good prospects. Thus, according to experts, the future of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex largely depends on foreign investors. Despite the armed conflict in Donbass, they are very willing to allocate money for new developments. In particular, we are talking about Saudi Arabia, for whose money the Grom-2 missile operational-tactical complex was developed.
Since 2015, the Kharkov Institute of Electromagnetic Research has been developing high-frequency weapons that can disable optical equipment and radio electronics.
There are also new contracts - for example, deliveries to Turkey of a batch of 120-mm barrel-mounted guided tank missiles "Konus". Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan buy Ukrainian anti-tank missile systems Korsar and Stugna.
In addition, Asian countries are promising for the Ukrainian side. In these countries, there is a fairly large number of Soviet-made equipment. Almost all of it needs modernization. And this requires designers, which are available only in Russia and Ukraine.
The Ukrainian defense industry plans to finish building a plant for the production of BTR-4 and self-propelled gun mounts. Representatives of Spetstechnoexport announced the signing of contracts with 30 countries, including China, Algeria, India, Equatorial Guinea and Myanmar. Basically, we are talking about the modernization of Soviet aircraft and armored vehicles, air defense systems.
If we talk about cooperation with European states, then its share in Ukrainian exports is only a few percent. In particular, Ukraine is cooperating with Poland. In 2016, 4 dozen R-27 guided missiles were delivered there. Such missiles are available only in Ukraine and Russia. The Polish side believes that it is profitable for it to work with the Ukrainian defense industry, therefore, several joint developments of ammunition and radar equipment are underway.
The Ukrainian military export market is estimated by experts at about $ 1-2 billion. About half is the share of private companies that are ready to produce more, but they are hindered by the corruption of government officials. The state holds a monopoly on the export of weapons, so private companies cannot independently, without the mediation of officials, look for sales markets, negotiate and set prices.
Thus, at first glance, there are certain prospects for the development of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. But they will remain unfulfilled if corruption continues to flourish in the country.
