For several years now we have been talking and writing about new Russian weapons systems, about new ships, about modernizing tanks, about all kinds of PAKs … Almost every day in various publications you can read about something that other countries do not have. Any speech by the President or the Minister of Defense deals with this topic.
It is clear that in the conditions in which Russia is today, the need for rearmament is visible to everyone. As well as the need to create completely new weapons. A weapon capable of appeasing any foreign hawk.
The majority of the population, especially after the President's famous message, got the impression that these tasks were easy to accomplish. Tomorrow, the day after tomorrow at most, we will receive "Armata" in all tank units and formations. The infantry will roll out on BMP-4 or Kurgantsy-25.
Seamen will receive dozens of the most modern vessels of various modifications. From the latest nuclear-powered military icebreakers and nuclear-powered submarines to the latest frigates and tank landing ships.
The pilots will be transferred to the cockpits of the fifth generation aircraft. The "Barguzins", terrible for the West, will be rolled out by rail. Strategic hypersonic complexes "Avangard" will be installed in mines all over the country, and mobile missile launchers "Rubezh" will be rolled out along the roads.
Here it is really appropriate to recall that very expression: not everything is so simple.
I recall the discussion of the State Armament Program for 2018-2027. How many copies were broken then? The military asked for a huge amount - 55 trillion rubles! Almost three times more than was allocated at GPV-2020, which was in effect at that time.
After discussing and agreeing on all the little things, it seems that the amount was reduced to 30 trillion. Ultimately, the GPV includes an amount of 19 trillion rubles. The government considered that this money should be enough for the necessary and sufficient rearmament of the army and navy.
It was then that the voices of our "mourners" cut through. "Chef, it's all gone!" We cannot do anything with this money! Russia is defenseless! We were betrayed! Guard!
But indeed, some short-sighted readers wondered, where is the serial release of "Armat"? Where is the promised serial production of the Su-57? Why are ships and submarines "stuck" at the shipyards? GOZ collapses …
Let's take a look at the realities of today's Russian army. What we already have. Let's look precisely from the point of view of modern types of weapons and equipment. They are trying to inspire us with the idea of lagging precisely in this parameter.
Moreover, more and more media outlets are beginning to cry, if not loudly, then moan on this topic.
Let's start with a shield that easily turns into a club. From the strategic missile forces. Oh, it turns out that today two-thirds of the weapons there have been replaced with modern ones. 66%! Few? For those wishing to give an answer to this question, I advise you to compare the indicators, for example, with the United States.
Those missiles that were in the Strategic Missile Forces before rearmament and are awaiting replacement with modern ones, fully met the requirements of the army. Another question: we need to be 100% sure of the effectiveness of our strike. And here the dog was buried. The "old" weapons did not give such confidence. Like, for example, Americans today are not confident in their own missiles.
You can shout as much as you like from the other side of the ocean about the fact that Russia is continuing the arms race. Well, we continue. So what? And the fact that we are improving our weapons where it is beneficial to us.
We know how to build rockets. Do we know how? We know how. So we are building them. The United States knows how to build aircraft carriers. Indisputably. So they build them.
Parity, however. It is understandable that one Yars, in a normal scenario, will incinerate half of any US fleet, while the Nimitz is unlikely to be able to kill Yars before launch is understandable. But these are already internal problems of the parties, as it were.
Another most important component of the modern army, as shown by modern military conflicts, is the aerospace forces. 73%! This is the share of modern weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces. Three quarters of the total. It seems to be wonderful.
Yes, of course, this is a significant step. If you do not compare quantitatively with NATO's flying arsenal.
So if we talk about the quantitative lag. Yes, the quality of our aircraft is at least better than potential aircraft. As a maximum - a cut above. The quantitative question is yes. However, there are nuances here too. And the main thing is that, unlike NATO, we hardly have to "work" at such a distance as in Syria.
Accordingly, the support of the other branches of the armed forces "if something happens" on our borders is provided.
Let's move on to the "failed", from the point of view of skeptics, units of our army.
Ground troops. Slightly less than half are rearmed. More precisely, 45%. Maybe it is necessary to shout "guard" here? Half of our landings use outdated equipment and weapons. And if you think about it?
We have a huge country. Units and formations of ground forces are located not only in "dangerous" regions, but also deep in the rear. This is a strategic necessity.
But there is no urgent need to change the "outdated" tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in the "rear" units. Obsolete does not mean unfit for action. Most of our weapons from the "old" stocks are at least as good as Western models. In hostilities in Syria, for example, both sides do an excellent job with Soviet weapons and armored vehicles.
The same is true in Ukraine, by the way.
The rearmament of the Navy is at about the same level. Today the fleet is equipped with new weapons by 47%. Here is really not enough. Yes, and these percentages were born exclusively due to small ships, boats and submarines.
And our "Soviet" ships are really old and inferior to the western ones. The reason is clear.
The destruction of the USSR fleet was a priority for the United States. The dominance of the world's oceans provided the American army with the ability to strike almost anywhere in the world. Our traitorous presidents have more than fulfilled the "US request".
In addition to the obvious betrayal of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, we also became hostages of the Soviet system of regionalization of production. The destruction of industrial contacts with Ukraine, alas, hit the shipyards hard. The ships that were at the final stage of production were left without engines …
According to open data, today the unfinished construction at Russian shipyards is huge. 12 submarines, 8 frigates of project 22350, 3 frigates of project 11356, 20 corvettes, 2 tank landing ships of project 11711.
These are the numbers of what we should have already received in the fleet. Even the advertised project 23550 icebreakers for the Arctic (2 pieces) are still stuck at the Admiralty Shipyard.
Plus modernization and overhaul.
And here it is worth noting that in GPV-2020, the fleet, together with the Aerospace Forces, was officially declared a state priority. And this is the result. What will happen next, when the interests of the now far behind in rearmament of ground forces are put in priority is generally difficult to say.
In light of the forthcoming redistribution of financial resources, which are also constantly being cut. Shoigu's department is clearly losing the battle for the budget to financiers.
And, by the way, there are not so many complaints about the latter. Is there any point in giving money if projects cannot be implemented? You can understand.
On the whole, the end in talks about the accelerated modernization of the Russian army and navy was put by the aide to President Putin, Andrei Belousov.
We have passed the peak of the cycle of saturation of the armed forces with new types of weapons and military equipment.
We translate?
Today Russia already possesses the necessary and sufficient minimum of modern weapons and equipment. Further movement will openly tear up the budget.
There is no money, but … And there won't be.
Therefore, there will be nothing from the series that many were so joyfully waving.
1. There will be no "Armata". Expensive.
2. There will be no "Kurganets" and BMPT. Expensive.
Moreover, this is indirectly confirmed by information that the BMP-1 is quite a combat vehicle. Now a new module "Berezhok" will be thrown on it and … Forward, God forbid, not to land mines.
3. There will be no Su-57. More precisely, an installation series, tests are being built, everything will stretch over many years.
4. There is no PAK YES. It is clear that it is not just that. Apparently, the horse was not lying there, and things did not go beyond the rainbow projects. Therefore, apparently, having understood the situation, Putin gave the command to modernize and build the Tu-160.
5. There will be (thank God) aircraft carriers. Here, too, everything is clear, as with the PAK YES. Complete NO. I would like to cut it off, but who would give it. Putin did not give it. Perfectly.
And actually, what kind of aircraft carriers are there, excuse me? We cannot build a frigate …
6. There will be no destroyers and frigates. Doubtful, we hope. But so far, the ships immobilized by Ukrainian sanctions have frozen at the docks.
In addition, two words about the ships. "Nakhimov" and "Lazarev" these words.
7. “Rubezh” will not be expelled from the GPV now. Instead of a mobile complex, there will now be a mine "Avangard". Both models Bolivar (in the sense of the budget) did not pull.
8. There will be no BZHRK "Barguzin". Expensive. And it seems like it is not necessary.
All work on Rubezh and Barguzin has been frozen until the end of 2027. The decision to resume these works will be made after the implementation of the current weapons program. If it is done and so on.
Actually, if you dig around, you could dig up as many more "unparalleled in the world" military developments, which were first shocked in front of the public, and then quietly removed until better times.
In fact, today we have the following: it suddenly became clear that Russia is not in a position to spend such funds on defense. It is sad. On the other hand, the military has clearly demonstrated a complete inability to absorb funds. The 55 trillion rubles requested by the Shoigu department were just a fairy tale from the cycle "Get out, shoulder, swing, arm!"
Actually, all the work from 2014 to our time has shown that there can be no talk of any 70% of new equipment for ALL types of armed forces. Not those times now.
Not in money, by the way. Here at least fill up with money, but if there is a shortage of specialists, then there is no way to get away from this.
Therefore, year after year, Shoigu lost positions to Siluanov. The money was allocated, not mastered (it is simply unrealistic to steal so much), the amounts were adjusted.
As a result, from 55 trillion rubles, there are already 17 left. Our chief optimist from the defense industry Dmitry Rogozin cheerfully and joyfully reported about this.
On the one hand, it's great that they threw out frankly insane and unviable projects like PAK DA, "Storm" and "Leader". This is how it is already with the fat, our military began to rage.
It is impossible not to kick the "aircraft carrier" concept. Build as many as three aircraft carriers, one for the Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet, and one type in reserve, in case one of the first two is repaired. It is delusional and stupid, especially in light of the fact that we cannot complete the destroyer or frigate.
And what do we have in the end? We have a final three-fold revised GPV program. Siluanov's department finally defeated Shoigu's department.
It remains only to speculate on what the "saved" trillions will be spent on. "Oil instead of guns" would be preferable to "pipelines instead of tanks." Let's see. But it is hard to believe in the implementation of the first concept in the light of the announced increases in taxes, excise taxes, and pension scammers.
