The emergence of private commercial companies has already had a significant impact on the rocket and space industry. Currently, such organizations attract attention and investment, and in addition, demonstrate competition with recognized market leaders. Such a situation cannot fail to attract the attention of specialists, the public and the press. Quite expectedly, attempts to analyze current events and forecasts of further developments appear.
On November 13, the American popular science publication Ars Technica published another material on the state of the global space industry, as well as on the relationship between its various representatives. The editor of the "space" department of the publication, Eric Berger, presented an article entitled "Russia has a plan to compete with SpaceX-but it has a flaw" - "Russia has plans to compete with SpaceX - but there are also weak points." As the name suggests, the author of the article reviewed the activities of the Russian space industry and the American company SpaceX, and also made conclusions about the impact of their work on each other.
In the subtitle of his article, E. Berger made an interesting thesis. He believes that the success of the latest Russian plans directly depends on the state of affairs in the new projects of SpaceX. In the article itself, the author revealed this thesis in more detail.
The author of Ars Technica begins his article with a reminder of the events of the recent past. Back in 2013, he writes, Russia's honored space fleet retained almost half of the launch market for commercial customers. However, then new players appeared on the market - first of all, the private American company SpaceX. The activities of new competitors have led to the fact that Russia has lost its dominant position in the rocket and space market.
In the current 2017, by the time the article appeared, the Russian rocket and space industry had carried out 17 launches of carrier rockets with various payloads in orbit. At the same time, only a third of the launches were carried out on a commercial basis - not in the interests of Russian state structures and not within the framework of ensuring the activities of the International Space Station.
During the same period, SpaceX performed 16 launches. The overwhelming majority of them - 11 launches - were carried out in order to put commercial cargo into orbit. The management of the private company believes that in 2018 this difference in the structure of launches will only increase. To obtain such results, it is planned to increase the number of launches of Falcon 9 launch vehicles.
As E. Berger points out, the Russian industry understands its far from outstanding performance, and therefore takes action. The Russian rocket and space corporation Energia is accelerating the development of a promising medium-class launch vehicle. This project was named "Soyuz-5". In the future, such a rocket can replace the Soyuz family carriers used to deliver astronauts to the ISS. In addition, it can compete with SpaceX's rockets.
E. Berger quotes the words of the Russian journalist Anatoly Zak, specializing in space issues. He claims that Russian officials have high hopes for the new project. In addition, the Kremlin regards the new Soyuz-5 launch vehicle as a domestic challenge to existing challenges in the form of foreign developments. It is seen as a new means of fighting for commercial orders, which makes this promising project more than relevant.
Too little and too late?
A. Zak believes that within the framework of the Soyuz-5 project, the Russian rocket and space industry has managed to obtain noticeable successes. Preliminary design work on this rocket should be completed in 2017. Thus, with the successful implementation of all plans, Energia Corporation will be able to bring the new carrier to the market by the end of 2021. The author mentions that, according to known data, the Soyuz-5 launch vehicle will be built according to a three-stage scheme and will receive RD-171 liquid engines using kerosene. In comparison, the Merlin engines used on Falcon 9 rockets also run on kerosene.
E. Berger points out that the Russian press seems to lack understanding of an important fact. It lies in the fact that in the coming years, SpaceX is not going to stop there, and by 2021 it plans to get new results. To understand the possible development of events, he proposes to consider the results of the American company in recent years.
So, four years ago, an American company was building the first version of the Falcon 9. This rocket could be used only once and put 10, 5 tons of cargo into low-earth orbit. Next year, according to existing plans, the fifth modification of the Falcon 9 rocket will go into flight. It will be optimized for reusable use. In addition, it is assumed that this carrier will be able to launch 23 tons into low-earth orbit.
The American author believes that the new rocket from SpaceX will be able to show some success, and in favor of this assumption, he believes, the previous activities of the company speaks. In addition, the emergence of a new version of Falcon 9 will have a certain impact on the market in general and on the Russian Soyuz-5 launch vehicle in particular.
The promising Russian rocket will debut on the international market in 2021. E. Berger believes that in this case, Soyuz-5 will not be able to compete with the latest Falcon 9. The launch of the American rocket will have to cost $ 60 million, and besides, by the beginning of the next decade it will have a definite launch history. The acceleration of the preparatory processes for re-launch, expected by the author, will further increase the potential of the Falcon 9. As a result, by 2021 SpaceX, unlike the Russian space industry, will be able to carry out commercial launches as soon as possible after receiving the order, as well as at the expected price in $ 60 million.
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Ars Technica's article “Russia has a plan to compete with SpaceX-but it has a flaw”, dedicated to the current plans of Russian and American specialists, is of certain interest, although from a certain point of view it looks very predictable. It is hardly worth reminding that in recent years new specific "traditions" have been formed around the rocket and space industry. So, for some time now it has been considered correct to admire the successes or even plans of individual private companies, but at the same time mercilessly criticize the "old" market leaders. All of this provokes controversy to a certain extent and leads to well-known results.
Given these "customs", there are some weak points in the Ars Technica article. Some of the proposed theses make you recall the notorious double standards and other not the most honest tricks. As a result, the article, despite an interesting topic and a number of curious theses, cannot be considered fully objective.
The article begins by comparing the number of launches and the portfolio structure of competing organizations. At the same time, the author does not take into account some of the features of the launches performed. Thus, SpaceX, when compared with Russian organizations in the rocket and space industry, clearly wins only in the field of launching medium-class rockets. In the category of heavy launch vehicles - despite years of promises - it has nothing to offer yet. Russia, in turn, possesses efficient and inexpensive means of transferring such a load.
Also, questions arise regarding the process of comparing the promising Russian Soyuz-5 launch vehicle and the expected new modification of the American Falcon 9. Thus, assessing the future of the two projects, Eric Berger shows clear condescension to the US-made rocket. The carrier, which does not yet exist and is not in operation, is evaluated according to the declared characteristics, which gives the most optimistic picture.
It is quite expected that the Soyuz-5 rocket, which is also at the design stage, is clearly inferior to its foreign competitor in this comparison. Moreover, as the American author points out, Russian development will give way to foreign ones immediately, already at the time of its appearance.
It is curious that the author of Ars Technica cites the reputation of SpaceX as an argument in favor of the successful completion of work on the new rocket of the Falcon 9 family. He argues that the firm's previous activities and successes indicate the possibility of a successful completion of the work. However, he denies such advantages to the Russian project. It is already known that the new Soyuz-5 launch vehicle should be based on used components and technologies of previous projects that have been repeatedly tested by practice. Nevertheless, E. Berger does not take this fact into account when assessing the prospects of the rocket.
It is hardly worth arguing that SpaceX is indeed showing significant success and having a significant impact on the commercial launch market. However, when celebrating the success of a young firm, you should stay within reasonable limits and not try to praise one organization at the expense of incorrectly criticizing others. Comparison using not the most honest methods can negatively affect the reputation of both the author and the praised projects. It is unlikely that the Falcon 9 missiles - already well-known - need such advertising.
