The Pentagon is exploring the possibility of creating space-based interceptor missiles and new tracking spacecraft to counter the growing threats from the Russian Federation and China in the field of "high-speed missile attacks," said Deputy Defense Minister for Research and Development Michael Griffin.
Writes about this informed American journalist Bill Hertz from the conservative edition of The Washington Free Beacon. What is it and what is the threat - we will now figure it out with you.
The Pentagon and the American administration do not learn from bad previous experience. Apparently, the saying "a clever learns from other people's mistakes, a fool learns from his own" - not about them, they do not learn from their own. And the "success" of withdrawing from the ABM Treaty did not teach, which did not allow the creation of at least some really workable missile defense system of the country's territory. After all, neither GBI nor SM-3 are capable of intercepting SLBMs and ICBMs under any conditions, even rigged interceptions of such missiles were not carried out, and the interception of all other missiles by them is unlikely in the face of countermeasures by modern means of overcoming missile defense. But the shackles fell from the hands of our developers of missile defense systems, which led to the final stage of work on the creation of a strategic missile defense system A-235 with stationary and mobile components, as well as a universal air defense system of long-range interception S-500, capable of effectively hitting ICBMs. / SLBMs, and low-orbit satellites, and a variety of aerodynamic targets, including, in some cases, hypersonic ones. Nor did I teach the outcome of the "hypersonic race" that had begun, when instead of a "quick global strike" the "probable partner number one" ended up with a bunch of closed programs for creating demonstrators, a bunch of open ROCs and practically no real successes, and the Russians were no longer on stream. the first hypersonic system, and several more are on the way. And even China, and it has taken the technology from nowhere (strikingly similar in places to the solutions of the past decades that were recognized as unpromising in our country) and is catching up with America. But Russia warned about the grave consequences of torpedoing the ABM Treaty and about a "quick global strike". And with the INF Treaty, too, it will turn out exactly the same. But I also wanted to worsen my positions in space, and proceeding from the same desire to improve them, gaining an advantage over the enemy - that is, Russia. But back to Michael Griffin and what he said again.
In fact, the personality of Griffin is quite curious, for those who are interested in all sorts of slippery types. Michael Griffin in narrow circles is a legendary person in his own way. At one time, this figure was engaged in the development of the budget under the "SOI" program, which in itself was one big cut without the slightest possibility of implementation. Then the Americans portrayed the case in such a way that SDI, they say, was a chimera invented for the Politburo, and they believed in it and were frightened. And they were so "frightened" that the measures taken on the 4th generation Strategic Missile Forces (Voevoda, Molodets, Topol, for example) effectively neutralized this never-realized threat. ("Topol-M", "Yars") and there is nothing to say.
Then Griffin came out with an open letter against the participation of the Russians in the ISS project, but Clinton did not understand this demarche, and Michael flew out of work. Then he settled down in the CIA-roofed non-profit office In-Q-Tel and so lived up to the presidency of Bush Jr., who appointed a useful cadre to lead NASA, where he turned around.
Let's not remember the petty pranks and sins of youth like the story of Griffin's dissertation. But let us recall how he proposed instead of the Shuttles to create a bundle of ILV SSME and the CEV spacecraft, where the rocket was a Frankenstein from the accelerators of the Shuttle program and other things that were found in the warehouse, the flight scheme was two-launch, and so on. And where is this wonderful system, you ask?
In general, if it were not for Elon Musk, Griffin could claim the dubious title of "rocket and space Mavrodi number one." However, such Masks and the very chimera of "effective" supposedly private astronautics were embodied precisely because of people like him.
At one time, when he was the director of NASA, Griffin actively promoted the idea of giving back launches of space rockets to private hands, and in fact, the transition to a budget drank by lured private offices with supposedly ingenious and completely private (here are no technologies from the outside) developments, all the salt of which in aggressive PR.
But we were not going to engage in applied maskology here, otherwise crowds of believers would run into the holy "Tesla" and the Reverend "Falcon", and so on. And the current speech of Griffin, who is now dealing with missile defense and anti-missile defense issues, shows that the old budget saw also has gasoline in his chainsaw.
Griffin first complained about aggressive Russia and China, saying that the Chinese allegedly "carried out dozens of tests of hypersonic weapons" (which is a lie, there are much fewer of them, especially successful ones), and the Russians are "rapidly advancing in this area." Well, yes, they just put into service the 15A35-71 DBK with the Avangard 15Y71 AGBO, the Dagger hypersonic aeroballistic missile, with several more systems on the way, in particular, the Sarmat DBK with the same Avangard as an option. And since, they say, such things, then it is necessary, it is imperative to have means of detecting such missiles, said Griffin.
The fact is that geostationary and highly elliptical spacecraft (SC) missile attack warning systems (SPRN, although in the domestic literature this is the name of our system, and the American one is HIDDEN, but this is from a series of our scouts and foreign spies) such as DSP or SBIRS are incapable issue target designation to missile defense systems, they only detect threats. And the control units were supposed to be issued by low-orbit spacecraft of the SBIRS-Low system (SBIRS high-elliptical was then called SBIRS-High), which, in the course of "successful" development at the beginning of the millennium, was transformed into STSS, and then, when tests of demonstrators showed its worthlessness, into the PTSS system, which, allegedly due to budgetary constraints, was quietly slaughtered in a dark alley in 2013. And now Griffin suggests once again, as they say in an on the verge of decency, but a funny anecdote, to "dig up a flight attendant" named PTSS, referring to new technical advances, promising that it will work. This time, for sure, just believe me and give me money.
In reality, the PTSS could not solve the tasks assigned to it in the same way, therefore it was stabbed to death. As the Los Angels Times wrote at the time:
Supporters of this system, which was planned to include from 9 to 12 satellites orbiting high above the equator, promised that it would read missile launches and track the flight of warheads with high accuracy and identify real and false targets. And all this should have been much cheaper than alternative approaches.
“Based on these promises, the Obama administration and Congress invested more than $ 230 million in the development and technical design of the PTSS, which began in 2009. Four years later, the government quietly shut down the program without waiting for a single satellite to be launched,” the author said. The US announced that PTSS had fallen victim to budgetary constraints. In fact, her whole concept was hopelessly flawed, and the promises of her defenders were wrong. She was the latest in a string of costly missile agency failures."
PTSS satellites in their equatorial orbits would not see BB flying over the Arctic, that is, flying from Russia to the United States, or from the DPRK (although it is easier for northerners to shoot across the Pacific Ocean). A system equipped with a maximum of 12 satellites could not provide continuous tracking even in the northern hemisphere, as promised. This requires at least twice as many satellites, and the Americans could not afford them, and will not be able to now. PTSS, as expected, was unable to solve the main task - to distinguish BB from decoys. This is even without taking into account the latest KSP missile defense system, a complex of means to overcome missile defense, which was created in Russia around those years, then tested and adopted into service and continues to be improved. He makes such a task unsolvable in the medium term by any means.
Well, as usual, the estimated cost presented by the ABM Agency - $ 10 billion over 20 years, turned out to be "slightly" underestimated, by about 2.5 times, and then, they say, these are only initial estimates of the Congress commission. But, given the unsolvability of the main problem, the system was simply not needed, everything else and existing ground and space means can at least do it. The Americans are shooting anti-missile missiles on tests at the control center with a ground-based radar - and sometimes they even get hit, although this is not a great achievement. You would think that a missile defense system without this component is useless, even if it were functional - it was not built for combat work. "Monya, you don't have to wear these trousers - you have to earn money on them," as the old Odessa tailor taught the young.
Here are a couple more views over the PTSS coffin:
"This is an example of a failed defense procurement: huge sums of money can be wasted by paying for what should not have advanced further than research," said physicist David C. Barton, who was on the National Academy of Sciences commission that oversaw US missile defense programs.
Philip E. Coyle III, a former Pentagon director of operational testing, argued that the program fiasco could have been avoided if the concept had been carefully crafted from the outset. "It could even be done on a napkin," Coyle said. "You just had to bring the pencil to the paper."
That is, it was necessary to figure it out on a napkin and immediately forget it, like a bad dream, and burn the napkin in an ashtray. But Michael Griffin, apparently, decided that 5-6 years is a sufficient time for the failure to be forgotten and it was possible to take a shovel and dig up a corpse. In addition, the country has a new president who forgets what he tweeted yesterday and who sincerely believes that under him "America's nuclear power has grown to unprecedented heights." By the way, I really want to read the new report of the US Department of Energy sometime at the end of the year or early next - we will find out how many warheads there was a negative growth this year.
Mr. Griffin is an experienced salesman and knows how to sell old goods to ordinary consumers, he would have to work in a "shop on the couch". Using the manner of presentation familiar to such establishments - only today you will receive not only PTSS in a new wrapper, the same "workable" as before (it is unlikely that the fundamental flaws of the system can be overcome with a new element base and other achievements of this decade), but you will get it cheaper !!! You get it for just $ 20 billion, Griffin promises. This is now, when prices for a decade in the military-industrial complex of America have grown exponentially, when a transport plane and even a heavy helicopter costs as much as a frigate did not long ago! And he promises the system is cheaper than it would have cost before, and, most likely, several times.
Moreover, he promises not only her for this money. Griffin is in favor of placing 1000 (!) Missile defense interceptor missiles on satellites, they say, without them hypersonic missile defense systems and Avangard-type systems will not be able to resist. And all - for a ridiculous 20 billion. Call now!
Griffin's calculations are phenomenal. In his opinion, an estimate of the deployment of space interceptors could be estimated at $ 20,000 per kilogram, the cost of sending materials into low Earth orbit. Where did the cost of the rockets and carrier satellites and satellites of the new iteration of the PTSS go, he forgot to say. Why go into such little things?
But seriously, 1,000 missiles will require dozens, if not hundreds, of satellites. And to hit them flying on flat trajectories and unpredictably maneuvering "Vanguards" and similar systems (recently we announced the development of the next AGBO "Anchar-RV") - it is impossible. The Americans already at one time developed the concept of a spacecraft with interceptor missiles on board, and within SDI, and a little later, when there was the same, equally "real" Brilliant Pebbles program, nothing came of it. Why should it work now? Moreover, for the ridiculous 20 billion portraits of long-rotted presidents.
In fact, everything is much simpler. The main thing is to open the topic so that funding can go. Then the client can be milked, promising that he has to pay more, and more, and more - and then there will be a result. Until he gets bored and the list of unsuccessful programs will not be replenished with more lines. At the same time, you can be sure that the list of prisoners in US federal prisons will definitely not be supplemented by the names of either Griffin or the figures from Congress or the US Defense Ministry associated with him.
