A number of European countries have already become concerned with the issue of protecting themselves and their allies from a hypothetical nuclear missile strike. European states have already deployed the means of a unified Euro-Atlantic missile defense system, and the construction of new facilities is expected. Relatively recently, Norway announced its desire to have its own missile defense system. Now she is busy with research work, the results of which will form plans for the construction of the desired systems.
In the distant past, the armed forces of Norway had foreign-made anti-missile systems that could fight some of the missiles of a potential enemy. After the end of the Cold War, such weapons were abandoned, and over the past decades, the Norwegian territory had only air defense without significant anti-missile capabilities. In connection with the latest events in the international arena and current political trends, the Norwegian command decided to revive its own missile defense system.
The issue of building a new missile defense system has been repeatedly raised in recent years, but until a certain time everything stopped at the stage of discussions. Only at the beginning of 2017 did Norway get down to real business. It was announced about the imminent conduct of research work, according to the results of which the appearance of the required missile defense system will be formed. It was supposed to study the main threats, as well as determine the available possibilities, and then propose the most successful version of antimissile defense, corresponding to the peculiarities of a hypothetical theater of military operations.
The State Defense Institute Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI) and the American Missile Defense Agency were entrusted with the study of the possibilities for the construction of new means of protection. Together, the two organizations were to consider a number of existing and promising projects, and then determine which ones are suitable for the rearmament of the Norwegian army. According to the plans of the beginning of last year, the design of the missile defense system should have been completed in about a year.
FFI and the ABM Agency have been asked several basic questions. They had to study the existing Norwegian infrastructure and find out its potential in the context of the deployment of missile defense, as well as determine the need for the construction of new facilities. It was also necessary to consider the situation on the international market and evaluate foreign missile defense systems, including in terms of cost and procurement opportunities. The following items of the assignment for the researchers included an assessment of the financial and operational features of the future missile defense. Finally, experts had to predict the possible reaction of Russia to the deployment of anti-missile systems in Norway.
It should be noted that assessing the reaction of a large neighboring country turned out to be the easiest task. Quite quickly, the Russian foreign policy department condemned the proposal of the Norwegian leadership and warned it against rash steps that could negatively affect the strategic situation in the region. For the rest of the items, the FFI and the ABM Agency had to work independently.
Soon after the announcement of the plans to build a missile defense system, various assessments and statements appeared in the Norwegian and foreign press, suggesting various ways of implementing the existing plans. In particular, it was proposed to simply join the Euro-Atlantic missile defense system under construction and use the same elements of the complexes that are being deployed on the territory of other countries. The possibility of building an anti-missile defense using F-35 fighters was also mentioned. It was argued that such aircraft with air-to-air missiles AIM-120D AMRAAM would be able to shoot down ballistic missiles in the initial stages of the trajectory.
According to information from the beginning of last year, by 2018, research participants had to submit a full package of documents describing the situation and suggesting ways to implement existing plans. However, this did not happen. Until the end of 2017, the country's leadership did not receive the desired documents; they were not passed on in the first weeks of the new 2018 either. Only a few days ago, the postponement of the completion of the studies was announced. In addition, his reasons were announced.
According to the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, the research required quite complex work with numerous calculations, simulations, etc. The mathematical part of the research turned out to be more difficult than initially expected. Because of this, the work has been delayed and has not yet been completed. According to recent reports, the FFI and the Missile Defense Agency will continue their current work over the next several months. The end of 2018 is now named as the completion date for research.
According to the Norwegian media, future documents will provide data on various ground, air and sea-based anti-missile systems. In particular, it is known about the completion of the evaluation of the Norwegian Fridjof Nansen-class frigates as carriers of interceptor missiles. However, it has not yet been specified what conclusions the Norwegian and American experts came to.
The postponement of the report on the prospects for the construction of antimissile defense entailed a shift in the timing of the rest of the required work. Having received the required documents at the end of the year, the Ministry of Defense and the government plan to discuss all the necessary issues, which will take almost the whole of 2019. If no new problems arise, then in 2020 a contract may appear for the supply of specific types of equipment and weapons. The first samples ordered will not be delivered until the middle of the next decade.
According to various estimates, Norway, first of all, will have to choose an approach to the construction of an anti-missile defense. It can acquire any systems and build its own missile defense system, or join the deployed Euro-Atlantic system. In the latter case, objects similar to those in Poland or Romania may appear on Norwegian territory. Control over these facilities will be entrusted to NATO's command and control systems.
What approach the military and political leadership of Norway will take is anyone's guess. Both approaches have their pros and cons in terms of technique, fighting ability, and even politics. In addition, politicians and the military will have to take into account not only the tactical and technical features of promising complexes, but also the political consequences, relations with third countries, etc.
Since the announcement of the future construction of the Norwegian missile defense system, various assumptions and assessments have been regularly expressed regarding its technical appearance. Experts try to predict not only the main approaches to construction, but also specific components, on the basis of which the entire required system will be created. For obvious reasons, there are a variety of assumptions and estimates, often contradicting each other. At the same time, in the existing assessments, it is possible to track some general trends that have certain grounds.
According to the overwhelming majority of assessments, Norway - regardless of the degree of independence of the future system - will not order the development of promising complexes. On the contrary, it will acquire and deploy complexes of existing types offered by foreign companies. It follows from the situation in this sector of the international arms market that the contract will most likely be signed with one of the American companies. In the catalogs of industrial products in other countries, there are simply no products that can interest the Norwegian military.
In this case, the purchase of any of the three "topical" anti-missile systems offered by the United States looks most likely. The Patriot complex, which has certain anti-missile capabilities, can become an addition to the existing anti-aircraft systems. If we take into account the peculiarities of the existing Norwegian air defense, then this choice looks quite interesting.
The specialized anti-missile complex THAAD can become an alternative to the Patriot. Such complexes have already entered service with several foreign countries, and they do not always work as part of a large integrated missile defense system. Moreover, if such a decision is made, they can be used with other means of the Euro-Atlantic missile defense system.
The most complex and expensive, but capable of showing the highest performance, is the Aegis Ashore complex. Ground-based versions of ship systems have already been deployed at several bases in Eastern Europe; there are plans to build several more such facilities. It is quite possible that the next complex of this kind will appear in Norway.
All three of these complexes have their own characteristics, which, depending on the customer's requirements, can be considered both advantages and disadvantages. For example, the THAAD and Aegis Ashore systems are distinguished by increased combat characteristics, but the Patriot complex is noticeably cheaper. In addition, the Norwegian industry has established ties with the developer of the latter, Raytheon. When choosing the desired missile defense systems, the Norwegian command can put both characteristics and cost at the forefront.
In the context of combat capabilities, the so-called objectives of the planned construction should also be taken into account. The Norwegian Ministry of Defense and NATO, responding to criticism from Russia, argue that the new missile defense system is not aimed against Russian missiles, but is designed to combat weapons from other countries. For elementary geographic reasons, the main threat to Norway in this case is Iranian missiles. The shortest distance between Iran and Norway is more than 3,200 km, indicating a hypothetical use of medium-range ballistic missiles. This places special demands on the means of protection.
In accordance with current trends in European international politics, the Russian Iskander or Caliber missiles can also be viewed as a threat. The latter, belonging to the category of cruise missiles, are targets for air defense. Quasi-ballistic missiles of the Iskander complex, despite all the statements of the Norwegian command, may be one of the reasons for the deployment of missile defense.
However, so far we are only talking about assumptions and versions. They are based only on known data and do not take into account the results of the current research work, which is planned to be completed only by the end of the year. It is not known what conclusions the specialists of Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt and the ABM Agency will come to. Also, future recommendations regarding approaches to construction and the choice of specific types of equipment remain unknown.
The latest news about the future Norwegian missile defense program shows one curious moment, which is quite capable of becoming a reason for specific conclusions. According to the initial plans, the specialists of the FFI and the ABM Agency should have completed the necessary studies a few months ago, at the end of 2017. However, they did not cope with their work on time, and they were given another year. As a result, the process of creating a full-fledged project moved to 2019, and the signing of the necessary contracts to 2020. Construction of the desired system, which is of particular importance for the country, will begin no earlier than 2025 - in seven years or later.
The topic of building our own Norwegian missile defense has been discussed for many years, and only last year it reached the start of real research work. Plans in this context are scheduled until the middle of the next decade. At first glance, all this looks reasonable and logical, but you can find certain reasons for criticism.
Long before the start of real work, the Norwegian missile defense system was called strategically important; it was argued that in order to ensure the country's security, it should be built and put on duty as soon as possible. However, the first studies began only in 2017, and the first real results can be seen no earlier than 2025. Such a work schedule looks ambiguous, and does not fully confirm the declared priority of the project. Why the Norwegian command treats the issues of rearmament and the construction of a strategic "shield" in such a way - only it knows itself.
One way or another, after long senseless conversations and loud statements without consequences, Norway began to study the issue of building an anti-missile defense. Scientists of the two countries were unable to complete the formation of the appearance of such a system within the established time frame, but over the next few months, these works will be completed. Thus, over the next few years, the Norwegian command will be able to determine its plans and begin to implement them. New messages on the progress of the project should be expected towards the end of the year.
