If India has other goals in nuclear deterrence besides Pakistani "friends", first of all the PRC, and secondly, the United States, then with Pakistan it is different. For the current Islamabad, Beijing is the main ally, the United States seems to be either an ally, or a senior, or an enemy pretending to be a friend, but it is hardly a target for Pakistan's nuclear weapons even in the medium term. Russia is not an enemy for Pakistan either, despite its warm long-term relations with India and complicated relations in the past, now our relations are developing quite actively, and in the military-technical cooperation sphere too. However, the problem with Pakistan is that this country is too unstable for a nuclear power, just as its foreign policy may turn out to be unstable. So it is difficult to say what the goals of this country's nuclear missile arsenal will be later. Moreover, this instability, which causes serious concern even in Washington, where at one time they developed (and are likely to update) plans to seize nuclear weapons in this country in a crisis situation, so that they do not fall into the hands of any Salafi extremists, is not a reason for obstructing Pakistan. … That is, this "unpredictable" and "unstable" DPRK cannot have nuclear weapons. Which has never attacked anyone and which has been ruled by the Kim clan for more than 70 years, what kind of "instability" is there! And Pakistan seems to be as good as possible. And Israel can, despite its rather aggressive policy.
Of course, either of the two superpowers will "smear" Pakistan along with its nuclear arsenal without any particular problems, but its presence still needs to be taken into account. Moreover, these guys have certain ambitions (not very reasonable, like India).
First of all, Pakistan does not have a "nuclear triad", that is, it does not have a naval nuclear component in addition to its ground and aviation components. But maybe something will appear in the future. So far, their nuclear carriers are primarily ground based. That is, ballistic missile launchers from the tactical level to the IRBM level, and cruise missile launchers. And, of course, tactical aviation with nuclear bombs - they were the first carriers of Pakistani nuclear weapons since its appearance in 1998. Although in reality, most likely, later - it is unlikely that the first nuclear devices of this country could be hung in a digestible form under existing aircraft, they needed time for some miniaturization. Despite the rather high annual airborne time in the Air Force, the Pakistani aircraft fleet is much weaker and outdated than the Indian one, which has such "diamonds in the crown" as our Su-30MKI. Currently, the fleet of combat aircraft is 520 aircraft: about 100 Sino-Pakistani-Russian (our engine) light fighters JF-17A / B, 85 American light fighter-bombers F-16A / B / C / D, 80 French light fighters Mirage -3 and 85 Mirage-5 fighter-bombers and 180 Chinese F-7 (MiG-21F-13 clone) of various modifications. In their countries, the role of carriers of nuclear bombs was performed by F-16s and both types of Mirages, and the MiG-21 was also a carrier in the Soviet Air Force. But, on the other hand, the F-7 is not the MiG-21. It is believed that the first aircraft to receive the bomb was the F-16 of the old A / B modifications of the Pakistanis. They say that these machines as air fighters, in general, are not impressive, and they can deliver a bomb, although the Pakistanis had to do the corresponding equipment and its integration into the aircraft's SUV themselves. Moreover, with this they greatly angered the Americans, who knew about the nuclear ambitions of their ally back in the 80s, although they put up with them due to the war against the USSR in Afghanistan, where Islamabad played a crucial role. But the planes were sold to Islamabad precisely on condition that they were not equipped with nuclear weapons in the future. And when the United States learned that such work was underway, deliveries of more modern versions of the F-16C / D were cut off. However, already under Bush Jr., this ban was canceled, because the so-called "war on terror" was going on in Afghanistan, and again Islamabad became needed. The Pakistanis, however, also partially converted these machines into a bomb. The number of converted vehicles is unknown, but there are suggestions that, based on the defenses and bunkers erected at the air bases for the temporary storage of ammunition, the nuclear carriers are the F-16A / B of the 38th air wing in Mushaf, 160 km north-west of the second largest Pakistani city of Lahore. There are two squadrons, the 9th "Griffons" and the 11th "Arrows", which are capable of carrying one bomb each on the ventral pylon. These are 24 aircraft. Perhaps, the F-16C / D of the 39th air wing at the Shahbaz airbase can also carry a bomb, this is one of the 5th Squadron "Falcons". These aircraft appeared at the base after 2011, and before that, for 7 years, protective structures were intensively built, also hinting at the nuclear status of the airfield. However, the bombs themselves are not stored at the bases, but they are kept in Sagodha, 10 km from the Mushaf airbase, there is a nuclear arsenal (considered protected by Pakistani-Indian standards, but certainly not by ours or American ones). In general, the weak security of the nuclear arsenal, as well as the low efficiency of both deployment and use, and the insufficiently smooth, reliable and fast control of nuclear forces are the trouble of all second- to third-rate nuclear powers.
Mirages are also considered nuclear carriers, some of which are based around the largest city of Karachi. Perhaps this is one or two squadrons from the three-squadron 32nd Air Wing. In any case, the storage, which resembles a nuclear one, is located 5 km from the Masrour airbase of this wing. Also, Mirages are now a test platform for the Raad air-launched cruise missile (aka Hatf-8), with a range of up to 300 km. Perhaps they will become its carriers, if, of course, old age does not interfere. It is not known whether the Chinese "narrow-eyed clones" of the MiG-21 or the new JF-17 are carrying the bomb. As for the latter, this is very likely in the future, because the plane is going to Pakistan and they can equip it themselves, and Beijing can turn a blind eye (whether Moscow, which supplies the engines, will look is the question).
KR ground-based "Babur"
Now about cruise missiles. In Pakistan, it has been developed, tested and since about 2014. is considered to be in service with the ground-based KR "Babur" ("Hatf-7"). Tests it since 2005. produced about 12-13, the range that Pakistan claims for it is 700-750 km, however, American experts believe that it is less - no more than 350 km, while the Russian estimate the range at 450-500 km. There are three modifications of this KR - "Babur-1", "Babur-2" and "Babur-3". The first two modifications are ground-based, on a five-axle self-propelled launcher with 4 missiles (the missiles are now launched from closed TPK, and earlier they were in half-open launch frames, in the early versions of launcher development). Pakistan claims that the latest modifications of the CD have high accuracy, are equipped with a GPS / GLONASS receiver, a guidance system based on a radar map of the area and a digital image of a target, and can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads. Although it is not known whether they actually have a SBC, which can fit into a fairly small-sized one and a half-ton CD with a warhead weighing 400 kg. The Pakistanis are also testing an anti-ship version of this CD, but the effectiveness of long-range subsonic anti-ship missiles will a priori be low at ranges of more than 300-350 km, the Americans once "burned themselves out" on this with the anti-ship version of the Tomahawk. By the way, "Babur" looks very similar to the "Tomahawk", and to our X-55, and to the Chinese KR DH-10. It is believed that Pakistan created it on the basis of the early versions of the X-55 received from Ukraine. The "height" of technologies in this case can be indicated by the range, which is several times less than even the old version of the original (and the X-55MS is almost an order of magnitude).
Launch of an experimental sea-based cruise missile "Babur-3" from an underwater submersible platform
"Babur-3" is so far an experimental version of this missile launcher for launching from a submarine. So far, there have only been two successful launches in 2016 and 2018 from a submersible platform. There have not yet been launches from Agosta-90V type submarines, on which they want to place these weapons. But this variant of "Babur" is still far from being deployed. As for the ground-based Baburs, it is believed that they exist only at the Akro base near Karachi, where there are about a dozen four-missile SPUs stored in 6 relatively protected hangar shelters and an underground facility for storing the missiles themselves.
Pakistan's arsenal of ballistic missiles is quite extensive - in terms of the number of modifications, of course. The fleet of tactical and operational-tactical ballistic missiles is represented by two models created recently. These are the Nasr (Hatf-9) ballistic missiles with a range of 60 km, a solid-fuel rocket weighing 1200 kg and carrying a 400 kg warhead conventional, or, reportedly, with a capacity of less than a kiloton. This weapon is declared by the Pakistanis as a response to the Indian Cold Start strategy - a blitzkrieg with the help of mechanized armored groups deployed in peacetime, numbering up to 8-10 mechanized and tank brigades deep into Pakistani territory, the purpose of which is to reach densely populated areas of Pakistan and its nuclear facilities, with the aim of preventing the use of nuclear weapons by him, not using them, if possible, themselves. A kind of "nuclear mine clearance detachments", only not against mines, but against missiles. The Indians expect that the enemy will not use tactical nuclear weapons on their own soil (why should he not do this - it is not clear). The Pakistanis are planning to use it, but with a particularly low power. It is believed that there are 24 self-propelled launchers for missiles of this type, 4 missiles per launcher. Another OTR is "Abdali" ("Hatf-2") with a range of 180 km - also solid-fuel with a half-ton warhead and a mass of about 2 tons. It is considered to be deployed since 2017, although development and testing have been going on intermittently since 1987. There is also an older OTR "Ghaznavi" ("Hatf-3") with a range of 290 km, weighing 6 tons and carrying a 700 kg warhead, conventional or nuclear. It is also a solid-propellant ballistic missile, currently there are 16 known in service with four-axle self-propelled launchers of this complex. Until now, the oldest Pakistani OTR "Hatf-1" is also in service, initially, back in the 80s, the former NUR, and only in the early 2000s became a guided missile with a range of 100 km. But it is now considered exclusively non-nuclear.
Tactical missile system "Nasr"
The oldest of the solid-propellant ballistic missiles in service, the SBS carrier, is the Shahin-1 (Hatf-4), 750 km range, weighing 9.5 or 10 tons (in the Shahin-1A version with a range of 900 km), in service with 2003 Both options are capable of delivering to the target a conventional high-explosive or cluster warhead or SBSh weighing up to 1 ton. In service there are 16 four-axle SPUs, practically the same as for the Ghaznavi OTR deployed in three regions of Pakistan. The next "Shahin-2" ("Hatf-6") is already a two-stage solid-propellant MRBM with a mass of 25 tons and a range declared by Pakistan as 2000 km, and by Western experts estimated as 1500 km. She also carries a warhead weighing a ton, and also detachable - this is implemented on all "Shahin". Pakistani government officials and scientists also tell tales about Shahin-2 that its detachable warhead is maneuvering - but this should be treated the same way as Indian boasting on similar topics. As well as to the stories about the "surgical precision" of this rocket. But steering by aerodynamic surfaces on a detachable warhead to improve accuracy, in theory, can be implemented. As well as the presence of a seeker on some missile variants - the DPRK has similar OTR and BRMD, now Iran has it and has even been tested in combat conditions in Syria. And the Pakistanis have close ties with the DPRK, and those with Iran.
IRBM "Shahin-2"
But maneuvering on a trajectory in order to counter missile defense is a completely different thing and the Pakistanis would not be able to realize this. Just yesterday, Pakistan was redirecting Chinese export projects (BRMD M-9 and OTR M-11, which served as the basis for a number of the above-described systems) - but today, is it already putting maneuvering warheads into service, how is Russia? Of course not. The reality in general often differs from the stories of Pakistanis and Indians about their nuclear missiles, and not only theirs. But to date, this MRBM is the longest-range of Pakistan's weapons. There are about a dozen self-propelled six-axle launchers, the complex has been in service since about 2014, although this event was promised much earlier.
The pinnacle of Pakistani missile development is the Shahin-3 (Hatf-10), an MRBM with a range of 2,750 km, also a two-stage one. But so far this MRBM is under testing, while there were only two launches in 2015. and even on paper was not officially adopted. Its radius allows it to cover any targets in India from most of Pakistan's territory, however, Islamabad wished to have a missile with such a radius in order to also hit the Nicobar and Andaman Islands of India, where, in their opinion, weapons threatening Pakistan could be deployed. True, to hit these islands, missiles must be deployed in the most southeastern regions of the country, near the Indian border, which, of course, makes such a deployment dangerous, including in light of the Cold Start strategy. On the other hand, the Shahin-3 stationed in the province of Baluchistan (where it is also dangerous to place such weapons, due to the difficulties with the local population), is capable of reaching Israel, which causes concern for the latter. Nevertheless, Pakistan likes to designate itself as the "first Islamic nuclear power", and if now it does not care about Israel, then you never know what will happen in 10 years? The Pakistanis argue that for this MRBM they are developing a multiple warhead with warheads of individual guidance, but this is also, in general, propaganda - and there is no nuclear ammunition of the required degree of miniaturization, and there is no experience of such work. If they are developing, then it will be for a very, very long time. China will not share technology with them on this issue - the Chinese also do not have much to boast about, although the first MIRVs in China have been created at last. Less than 40 years later, they promised to do it.
IRBM "Shahin-3". As we can see, the design is rather primitive, in particular, the aerodynamic rudders on the first stage look archaic for a large ballistic missile.
All of the above BRs were solid fuel. But the Pakistanis also have liquid systems, of course, without encapsulating tanks and the like, these are very primitive systems that require refueling several hours before launch, capable of spending some time in a refueled state, but in general, characterized by extremely low operational efficiency and survival. However, even solid-fuel systems of such a country as China in terms of flexibility, efficiency of use, elaboration of combat patrolling issues and much mobile performance, make you smile. What can we say about the third-rate nuclear powers. But their opponent is the same.
Comparison of the appearance of their missiles with Chinese products from their Indian "friends" is very unpleasant for Pakistanis.
The fluid systems are the Ghauri-1 (Hatf-5) ballistic missile, weighing 15 tons and having a range of 1250 km, and the Ghauri-2 (Hatf-5A) MRBM, weighing 17.8 tons and having a range of up to 1800 km. Both types carry a 1200kg detachable warhead. Missiles of this type were among the first to be put into service in Pakistan, and were clearly created in case there were problems with the solid-fuel program. These missiles were created on the basis of North Korean technologies, such as the "Rodong-1" ballistic missile, which, in general, is a heavily oversized Soviet "Elbrus" R-17M. In service there are 24 self-propelled launchers located in protected shelters. But not all missiles are nuclear-armed, as in other Pakistani systems, there are conventional warheads. In total, the Pakistani fleet of self-propelled launchers for ballistic missiles of classes from tactical missiles to medium-range can be estimated at 90-100 units.
MRBM "Ghauri-2" before the first test
Of course, there is no talk of any complexes of means of overcoming missile defense in Pakistan so far, although, perhaps, on the newest "Shahin" something primitive and maybe, but the Pakistanis did not brag about it. Which is odd considering the above. There is no well-established system of combat patrol areas, with prepared hidden positions for watch, from where it is possible to launch. Of course, they did not hear about the launch from any point on the route either. But the same is the case with India - mobile carriers are mainly designed to be launched from a site near a protected shelter or tunnel. Although in a crisis period, it is likely that they can be transferred in advance to reserve positions. In general, this is a rather flawed approach (as is the system of protected tunnels, where missiles can simply be buried by the enemy), but given the approximately equal low class of opponents, they will do it anyway.
What kind of nuclear warheads are on Pakistani delivery vehicles? It is believed that Pakistan does not yet produce either tritium-enhanced nuclear charges or thermonuclear charges, and the power of its charges is limited to tens of kilotons. And in general, it mainly produces uranium charges, because it has much more highly enriched uranium than plutonium - 3100 kg of uranium highly enriched to a weapons-grade level and 190 kg of plutonium, of course, it is estimated. This is enough for 200-300 nuclear charges. But, of course, they don't have that much. There are different estimates of the size of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal - from 60-80 (American intelligence) to 90-100 charges according to our estimates, and even 130-140 (the ubiquitous H. Christensen, although his estimates are difficult to believe - he simply counted all the carriers and counted for each in charge, although a significant part has conventional warheads). There is no doubt that the Pakistanis continue to build up their arsenal, and there are different estimates of this rate - from 5 units a year to 10-15. And different assessments of the size of the arsenal that Pakistan wants to achieve in the end as sufficient for itself. This is 200 charges, and 220-240, and even more. Although, overestimated estimates are unlikely to have a real basis. Nuclear weapons, even primitive ones, are expensive, and Pakistan is much poorer than extremely poor India, and has a much smaller population. Therefore, it is very likely that Pakistan will overtake Great Britain in the "official" nuclear five countries, but neither France, let alone China, nor will it try to catch up. Yes, and a large arsenal and more difficult to protect, especially deployed on carriers. And the situation in Pakistan is complicated, including terrorism, and Islamabad understands that the loss of nuclear materials and, moreover, the charges and their falling into the hands of terrorists are unacceptable, the great nuclear powers and superpowers will not leave it that way. Even if it is unlikely that even a primitive charge could be set in motion by terrorists, this is not a Hollywood film, where this is all too often. In Pakistan or the DPRK, the attitude towards nuclear safety is quite serious.
Nor is it too much to believe in the possibility of Pakistanis "selling" nuclear weapons to the Saudis, about which there is a lot of speculation. Despite the close ties and financial support from Riyadh, the Pakistanis understand that the Saudis will have such information no longer than the water in the sieve, and this deal will pour out tears for them. And when they need it, the Pakistanis beautifully "rolled" the Saudis, for example, as was the case with the invasion of Yemen. And here the question is much more serious than the permanent long-term coalition receiving in different parts of the body from barefoot guys.
