The increase in the range of use of aviation ammunition, in conjunction with the development of cruise missiles and methods of increasing the survival rate for combat aircraft, led to a sharp weakening of air defense systems.
Over the past 35 years, all the results of the combat use of anti-aircraft missile systems have demonstrated the extremely low effectiveness of this type of weapon (on the verge of uselessness). In 100% of cases, anti-aircraft gunners not only failed to protect the airspace, but were not even able to provide significant resistance to aviation. Despite the fact that we are talking about very complex and expensive systems with promised high capabilities, where the cost of one antenna post is comparable to the cost of a fighter link.
And what is the result?
Bombers and air attack weapons (START) “rolled” over the positions of the air defense missile system with a red-hot roller, destroying objects with impunity, which seemed to be protected by the most powerful and modern air defense system.
In response, representatives of the ground group and the air defense command shrugged their shoulders as usual, referring to the interference, hilly terrain and curvature of the earth. Radars do not see targets over the horizon - this is an off-design mode. However, the problem is that this "mode" is calculated when planning attacks using cruise missiles and fourth-generation multipurpose fighters, which are capable of flying at ultra-low altitudes, attacking with precision weapons, for the use of which they do not even need to fly directly over the target. In such conditions, victorious reports about the “unique properties” of anti-aircraft systems, which by their very presence “inspire fear” and “force the aggressors to abandon the attack,” are unconfirmed chatter.
The question is not even about "unique capabilities", but about the justification for investing in the development of such expensive weapons that will guaranteed destroyed in the first minutes of the war.
You won't have to look for examples for a long time
Operation "Medvedka-19", 1982
Number 19 - according to the number of air defense missile systems in East Lebanon.
15 divisions of mobile Kvadrat air defense systems, two divisions of stationary air defense systems S-75 and S-125, supplemented by fifty "Shilok", 17 anti-aircraft artillery batteries and 47 sections of MANPADS "Strela-2". The highest density of anti-aircraft weapons ever encountered in military conflicts.
Despite the threefold mutual cover, the "invincible" air defense grouping ceased to exist on the very first day of the war, without noticeable losses to enemy aircraft.
Operation Eldorado Canyon, 1986
The airspace over Tripoli was covered by 60 French-made Crotal air defense systems, seven C-75 divisions (42 launchers), twelve C-125 complexes designed to combat low-flying targets (48 launchers), three divisions of mobile Kvadrat air defense systems (this is another 48 launchers), 16 mobile Osa air defense systems, not counting the long-range S-200 Vega anti-aircraft systems deployed in the country (24 launchers).
A strike group of 40 aircraft broke through to all designated targets, losing only one bomber to anti-aircraft fire (at least no other wreckage or evidence of large losses was found over the past 30 years).
The accuracy of the night strikes was low. But something else is surprising. An armada of 40 aircraft flew all night in the sky over the capital, waking residents up with explosions and the roar of aircraft turbines. Insolently and with impunity, as if the Libyans had no air defense at all.
Operation Desert Storm, 1991
Briefly about the main thing - the aviation of the multinational forces bombed whoever they wanted, when they wanted and as much as they wanted, despite the fact that Iraq had a full range of Soviet-made air defense systems, supplemented by French radars and the Roland air defense system. In quantities that most of the most developed countries in the world could envy. According to the American command, the Iraqi air defense system was distinguished by a high organization and a complex radar detection system, covering the most important cities and objects on the territory of the country.
Naturally, on the very first night, all this was broken to zero.
In the days that followed, the Allied aircraft did whatever they wanted in the sky. The remnants of the Iraqi air defense - just what they could. They were able to do a little. In just six weeks of "supersonic war" during episodic incidents, 46 combat aircraft were shot down, most of which fell victims not to the formidable "Squares", but to large-caliber machine guns and MANPADS.
The USSR Ministry of Defense gave other figures - 68 losses (including those shot down in air battles).
In any case, this gives less than one thousandth of a percent of the 144,000 sorties of the MNF aviation. A suspiciously weak result for the air defense of an entire country, which, militarily, was one of the five strongest states in the world.
Operation Allied Force, bombing of Serbia, 1999
The FRY was armed with 32 anti-aircraft missile systems (20 outdated S-125 and 12 quite modern “Kub-M”), as well as about 100 mobile systems “Strela-1” and “Strela-10”, MANPADS and anti-aircraft artillery systems.
Of course, all this was not useful to the Serbs.
The only high-profile incident happened on the third day of the war: the "invisible" F-117 collapsed near Belgrade. The event greatly encouraged air defense personnel around the world. However, it had no effect on the course of the operation and the results of the conflict. The Yankees and their henchmen bombed whatever they wanted.
According to the NATO command, their planes carried out 10,484 bombing strikes.
Why did the Serbs manage to shoot down the "stealth", but failed to shoot down the rest of the "simpler" and numerous targets such as "F-15 & F-16"? The answer about stealth is as simple as the question: accidental success.
The second and last confirmed trophy of the Serbian air defense was the F-16 Block 40, which took off from the Aviano airbase. The tails of both vehicles are on display at the Belgrade Aviation Museum.
No more visible debris was found. A twisted Tomahawk missile and a couple of light UAVs. That's the whole result for thirty-two air defense divisions.
The complexes were not the newest? Well then! NATO aviation also did not consist of only the latest "stealth". Among the opponents were a lot of “old men”, the same age as the “Cube” air defense system.
For example, the Dutch flew the F-16A (1 air victory), the earliest modification of the Falcon with a lot of shortcomings. The downed F-16 "Block 40" was also considered by that time an obsolete machine. And the Italian Air Force even attracted such "dinosaurs" as the F-104 Starfighter to participate in the operation.
* * *
With the end of the bombing of Serbia, there was a long 15-year hiatus in the history of air defense. All offensive campaigns at the beginning of the 2000s were conducted in the absence of opposition from the ground. During this time, many legends have been written about how valiant anti-aircraft gunners "brought down" dozens of planes on Iraq and Yugoslavia, the main of which was the story of the downed "stealth".
And now - welcome to a new era. The era of fantastic aviation systems, smarter missiles "Tactical Tomahawk", planning for tens of kilometers of guided bombs and new methods of air warfare.
In response, a new generation air defense system was threateningly aimed from the surface. With high automation and new, expanded capabilities. Impenetrable "Armor" and unparalleled S-400, capable of shooting down everyone at once at distances of hundreds of kilometers.
The first round unexpectedly ended with the victory of the air defense systems. A domestic anti-aircraft complex "Pantsir S-1" delivered to Syria shot down a Turkish reconnaissance "Phantom". They sent the old man to the scrap.
Further confrontation between air defense and aviation did not cause optimism. Not a month goes by without news of another strike by the Western coalition air force and Israel on Syrian territory. They fly and bomb whatever they want. Despite the presence of "impenetrable Armor" and the S-400, whose index hints at the possibility of control over half of the Middle East.
Unpunished airstrikes cause derision among countries with zero success on their own; it remains only to scoff at others. But the domestic approach is also good: for a good ten years, the media daily described the outstanding properties of "Shells" and "Triumphs". The military demonstrated them at parades, promising to shoot down everything that comes close to 400 (now 500) kilometers to the positions of the air defense missile system.
You can just as well assure your coworkers that you have telepathy, knowing that at the first opportunity the facts will show the opposite and you will be laughed at.
The “X-hour” was a missile attack on the Shayrat airbase. In an effort to protect shoulder straps and reputation, they justified themselves in different ways. Someone referred to the lack of an order. Others honestly wrote about the lack of technical ability to intercept. In that situation, the presence or absence of an order no longer mattered.
Our S-400 air defense system, which is deployed in Syria, at the Khmeimim airbase, would not technically have been able to shoot down American Tomahawks. The Syrian airbase Shayrat, which was attacked by the Americans, is about 100 km from Khmeimim. However, for air defense systems there is a restrictive concept of the radio horizon.
Yes, the maximum range of destruction of the S-400 is 400 km. But you need to understand: this is the reach of air targets that operate at medium and high altitudes. Cruise missiles, which operate at altitudes of 30-50 meters, are not visible from such a distance, simply because the Earth is "curved" - spherical. In short, the American Tomahawks were outside the S-400 radio horizon. (Retired Colonel, member of the Expert Council of the Collegium of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation Viktor Murakhovsky.)
If you subject the statement to a logical analysis, it turns out that any, the most advanced air defense system is powerless against low-flying aircraft and missiles.
Modern aircraft do not even need to fly close to the target to strike. This makes it almost impossible to repel an attack by means of ground air defense.
On the side of aviation - physics and the laws of nature.
40 years ago
The last indisputable triumph of air defense was the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Well, as if it were a triumph, they still missed it. But nonetheless. The point is different.
The most modern anti-aircraft systems with crews manned by Soviet "advisers and military specialists" inflicted simply insulting losses on the "invincible" Hal Haavir (Israeli Air Force).
100-150 destroyed planes and helicopters (according to the Syrian side - more than 200), incl. shot down in aerial battles and lost for inevitable technical reasons. A quarter of Israel's military fleet is expensed.
The reason is the low percentage of precision weapons. Israeli "Mirages" and "Phantoms" armed with "cast iron" were forced to use anti-aircraft missiles, for which they paid.
How does this example relate to our time? Yes, no. With the same success, one can refer to the actions of the air defense in Vietnam.
The differences between the wars of the middle and the end of the 20th century were told at the very beginning:
The increase in the range of use of aviation ammunition, in conjunction with the development of cruise missiles and methods of increasing the survival rate for combat aircraft, led to a sharp weakening of air defense systems.
Why is aviation winning?
The highest mobility among all existing weapons systems. Initiative. The ability to quickly group forces and choose the time, place and unexpected direction for an attack. Supersonic breakthroughs at low altitudes.
A wide range of "traps", "surprises" and special equipment, allowing you to "lead by the nose" of the best anti-aircraft systems.
For example, MALD, air target simulators, massively launched into the air defense coverage area. For ground-based radars, they are practically indistinguishable from fighters and especially cruise missiles, simulating simple maneuvers and radio communications of crews. They fly hundreds of kilometers.
The task of these "dummies" is to scatter and divert the attention of anti-aircraft crews from their real targets. Force to activate the radars, through which the PRR is "banged".
What is RRP? These are anti-radar missiles aimed at radar radiation.
At the moment, they have evolved a lot, turning into “heavenly mines”. Airplanes do not even need to constantly be in dangerous proximity to the enemy's air defense system - it is enough to "hang" in the sky a dozen of such surprises.
The rockets soar skyward and slowly descend from the stratosphere on parachutes (tens of minutes). As soon as the aiming head detects the inclusion of the radar, the parachute fires back, ALARM again turns into a supersonic rocket, falling by a meteorite on the position of the air defense missile system.
Accuracy is not perfect, but a couple of volleys of such "toys" is a guaranteed end to any air defense.
Apart from the less complex and fanciful PRR AGM-88 HARM, produced in the direction of working radars. Suspecting something was wrong and urgently turning off the radar, the calculation is still doomed - it is enough for HARM to see the target once. Having lost the guiding signal, the modern PRR flies in the direction from which the signal was last recorded.
This does not negate the likelihood that the dull PRR instead of the radar attacks the microwave. Just consumable ammunition. One missed, the second will. The pilots risk nothing - they are a hundred kilometers away, below the radio horizon of ground-based radars.
Towed traps, airborne anti-radar mines and conventional anti-radar missiles, electronic warfare systems, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, electronic reconnaissance aircraft capable of tracking radar operation from distances of hundreds of kilometers (from the airspace of a neighboring country).
In such conditions, the situation with the air defense resembles the story of the impassable Maginot Line, which could not withstand the collision with the realities of a new war.
In Western armies, air defense systems are paid an order of magnitude less attention, the same "Patriots" are never considered as the main means of protecting the airspace. They are in second (if not third) roles, after fighters. Only aviation can fight aviation (of course, comparable in quantity and quality of equipment and l / s).
Western air defense systems, Aegis, THAAD and Iron Dome are increasingly turning into missile defense systems. For shooting at radio-contrast targets at high altitudes, when the crews still have time to detect and intercept the target.
