Experts from the American Center for Strategies and Technologies at the US Air Force University prepared a report on the analysis of trends in the development of the economic and military power of the leading world states. Naturally, these studies did not bypass Russia either. American experts emphasize that if the 20th century could be called the "American century", then the current one is already the "century of Asia." In this regard, Russia, geographically located at the border between East and West, organically fits into the process of redistribution of the spheres of influence of geopolitical centers of power.
1. The future of Russia according to US Air Force analysts
Talking about the prospects for Russia by 2030, the authors of the report note that earlier US intelligence had already made a serious mistake when it underestimated the country's potential for revival in the early 2000s. Today America is forced to reckon with the fact that Russia, which has chosen its own path of development, equidistant from Asian authoritarianism and Western democracy, by 2030 will again begin to pose a serious threat to American national interests in the world.
US Air Force experts note that by 2030 Russia will be reborn as a powerful regional power, outstripping many Western countries in terms of its economic development. At the same time, the extractive industries will remain the basis of the Russian economy, as now, although other components of the Russian economy will develop.
In shaping its foreign policy, Russia will prioritize its own regional geopolitical status, concentrating on ensuring the safe access of its energy resources to the world market. Guided by this priority, key interests for Russia will be located in the CIS countries, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
If we talk about possible scenarios for the development of statehood in the country, experts believe that the most unlikely scenario is the failed state. Russia still possesses enormous economic resources of oil, gas, precious and non-ferrous metals, timber, which serve as a buffer against possible social unrest and related political changes. Even with a very high level of corruption and serious demographic problems, there are no prerequisites for the collapse of the Russian economy by 2030. The speakers especially emphasized the figure of V. Putin, who has a unique ability to select successors and pull public opinion over to his side, using social support measures for this. This, together with a powerful resource base, allows Russia to move away from the previously predicted scenario with a possible slide towards a failed state.
Experts believe that the likelihood that a democratic state will be formed in Russia is only marginally greater than the likelihood of sliding towards a failed state. In this regard, the entire multi-thousand-year history of Russia opposes the implantation of democracy in the country. Therefore, the authors of the report consider it senseless to talk about a possible democratization of Russian society even in the medium term. In this regard, the coming to power of Dmitry Medvedev did not change the situation in any way. Full democratization of the country would require a radical cultural shift among the population and a revolutionary restructuring of the political system of the entire society.
The authors of the report see the most likely form of power in the country in a nationally specific form of authoritarian rule. The most probable development of statehood in Russia in this regard is the Chinese model, in which, as in Russia, strong central government is implemented, and the economic sphere is transferred to private hands.
Rebuilding the Russian infrastructure will take a significant amount of time. In the next 3-5 years, progress in this direction will be very limited and will affect primarily only the raw materials sector. However, in 10 years, experts expect recovery in other infrastructural sectors of the economy. For Russia, these changes will be significant, although in comparison with countries such as China and India, they will seem scanty.
The growth of the economy will be reflected in the financing of defense capabilities. The ever-increasing defense spending will allow Russia to significantly increase its combat power by 2030, which, however, will remain insufficient to provide a global projection of power, which in turn will contribute to the course towards the formation of Russia as a regional center of power.
2. Russian strategy for 2030
In the past decade, the bulk of Russia's geopolitical power has been associated with nuclear capabilities and permanent membership in the UN Security Council. By 2030, Russia will also have increased economic power. In addition, state control over a large part of the economy will make it possible to "revive" the armed forces (primarily general-purpose troops), at the same time gaining the opportunity to project its military power in the regions of influence - in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Eastern Europe, which will allow Russia to strengthen as a regional power.
At the same time, even taking into account the significant progress in all components of the military reform, it is impossible to imagine that Russia will have an army equivalent in power to the army of the USSR. The modern Russian army is assigned only the role of a regional force. However, the country's inability to conduct a global projection of power does not diminish the ability to create a powerful national defense. This can only be prevented by a difficult demographic situation.
By 2030, Russia will not be able to achieve military parity with the United States, but it will still be uniquely positioned to respond asymmetrically. Russia, as now, will have an impressive nuclear arsenal and reliable means of access to outer space. By 2030, these two components will form the basis of the country's military potential.
3. The future of the Russian armed forces in 2030 will be determined by unmanned air forces, hackers and free access to space
Experts believe that Russia, using its century-old experience of "rebirth from the ashes" and all kinds of military tricks, will once again be able to teach the American army a lesson by implementing a number of unique asymmetric methods to counter the military force of the states.
So, experts believe that the deplorable state of Russia's military aviation (meaning all the components: aircraft, personnel, ground infrastructure), with the current desire of the country's leadership to develop such areas as nanotechnology and electronics, can give the country a chance to build a fundamentally new air force, the basis which will become combat unmanned platforms. Already today in Russia there is a lot for the implementation of this idea, and in the near future all the missing components can be quite easily implemented.
American experts believe that by 2030, Russian military aviation will follow the path of widespread use of UAVs. The Russian level of technology development will make it possible to produce unpretentious drones, the combat versions of which will be armed with microwave weapons and solid-state lasers - in these two areas of the development of modern airborne weapons in our country, a priority is still retained. Experts believe that by 2030, almost 70% of Russian aviation will become unmanned.
The implementation of this project will help to reduce the cost of maintaining an expensive and complex infrastructure to support the operations of traditional aircraft. In addition, the requirements for the personnel of the Air Force will be significantly reduced. This is extremely important for Russia due to the difficult demographic situation.
Thus, American experts of the US Air Force believe that by 2030 Russia is still an energy supplier, and equidistant from the East and West. The country's armed forces will focus on maintaining the role of a supplier of resources - this is the protection of deposits and their transportation routes. Russia will have strong regional power in conventional military capabilities, but substantially limited expeditionary capabilities in terms of the entire world. The Russian army will become much smaller in number, but more adapted to perform new tasks, with well-trained personnel and new technically advanced weapon systems.
In order to at least partially restore the possibility for the global projection of military power, Russia will continue to develop and improve its nuclear potential and develop the space industry. At the same time, the country will actively improve the forces and means of information warfare, which makes it possible to carry out large-scale operations in the information space.
By 2030, Russia's ability to work in space will be on par with that of the United States and much higher than that of China. Militarily, Russia will pursue an aggressive program of dominance in this area, as this makes it possible to compensate for the lack of strategic potential for the design of military force with conventional weapons.
Russia will actively develop the direction of creating mini and microsatellites (especially considering the level of investment in nanotechnology). The impetus for the development of such satellites for the country is the absence of fully acceptable launch points for heavy launch vehicles.
An important direction in the design of mini and microsatellites will be the production of anti-satellite weapons on their basis, which will allow Russia to achieve its dominance in space during the necessary period. In addition, ground-based elements will also be included in the anti-satellite defense system - most modern domestic air defense systems are designed with the possibility of using them as anti-satellite weapons to defeat low-orbit satellites of a potential enemy.
The second most important direction in the development of asymmetric means will be information warfare. At present, Russia has a significant potential for highly educated specialists in the computer field. Counteracting troop command and control systems, disrupting their work is an effective and, most importantly, a cheap way to achieve a strategic effect with minimal costs, relatively simple implementation, and a small involvement of labor resources.
American experts believe that by 2030, the means of information countermeasures in the Russian army will be on a par with the most powerful complexes of weapons and military equipment. The means of waging cyber warfare will allow the country to partially compensate for its shortcomings in the field of global projection of military power. In the matter of militarizing the information space, Russia will be in second place in the world, second only to China.
4. Russia in 2030 is a serious adversary for America
Summing up and summarizing the experts' conclusions, we can conclude that Russia will pose a serious threat to the United States. Americans are especially concerned about Russia's ability to create asymmetric responses to many emerging threats.
The existing scientific and technological potential, which by 2030 will be increased in a number of issues, will allow the country to create asymmetric responses to expensive American programs, which will make Russia's defense very effective, although not capable of carrying out expansionist projects at the global level.
