Automated military systems are a reality of modern wars and a rapidly growing business. Kommersant analyzed the state of the world market for combat robots and the state of affairs in Russia.
What are fighting robots
Today, military robotic technology in a broad sense includes:
- guided ("smart") ammunition;
- space satellites for military or dual use;
- unmanned aerial vehicles or drones (UAVs or UAS, unmanned aerial vehicles, UAV);
- autonomous ground systems (unmanned ground vehicles, UGV);
- remotely operated vehicles (ROV);
- unmanned surface vessels (USV) and autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV).
Systems of these categories, in turn, are divided by performance characteristics into light, medium and heavy, and by functionality - into combat, rear, engineering robots and reconnaissance robots.
Another important characteristic is the degree of autonomy. Modern military robots are either remotely controlled, remotely guided, or remotely controlled. Fully autonomous systems remain a challenge for the future, but not so far - in the 15–20 year range.
UAVs have become the most massive and effective segment of military robotics. Ten years ago, drones were in service with only three countries - Russia, the United States and Israel. Now, according to the London International Institute for Strategic Studies, the number of countries operating unmanned aerial systems has exceeded 70. The number of combat drones used by the United States has grown from 162 in 2004 to more than 10 thousand as of 2013. According to the current "roadmap" for the development of robotic systems for military purposes, the American armed forces in 2014-2018 should spend $ 23.8 billion on them, including $ 21.7 billion on UAVs (expenses include R&D, procurement, maintenance and repair).
It is believed that the first ground robots that were used in real combat were the American Autonomous Ground Systems (UGV) Hermes, Professor, Thing and Fester equipped with 12 video cameras (the last two were named after the characters of the popular television series The Addams Family). This happened in July 2002 in Afghanistan, when the 82nd Airborne Division of the US Army was combing a complex of underground tunnels and caves in the Kikai area. The robots were sent in search of caches and possible hideouts ahead of the military. In total, during the American operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, about 12 thousand UGV systems were used.
Where is the robot fighting market heading?
The military robot market, in general, is one of the fastest growing high-tech industries in the world economy. According to estimates by WinterGreen Research and MarketsandMarkets, its volume grew from $ 831 million in 2009 to $ 13.5 billion in 2015. By 2020, it should reach $ 21.11 billion. The compound annual growth rate in 2015–2020 is projected at over 9%.
According to other data, for example, the consulting company Teal Group, in the UAV segment alone, the annual turnover reaches $ 6.4 billion with a projected increase to $ 11.5 billion by 2024 ($ 91 billion over ten years). At the same time, the share of military UAVs over the same period of time in the total volume will decrease from 89% to 86%.
The International Federation of Robotics (IFR), in turn, predicts that 58.8 thousand units of military robots will be sold in 2015-2018. This is 40% of the total $ 19.6 billion market for professional robotic systems. The lion's share of sales will go to transatlantic defense concerns such as Northrop Grumman or Lockheed Martin.
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But in one form or another, almost all companies involved in robotics are engaged in military development. For example, the manufacturer of robotic vacuum cleaners, iRobot, received its first large orders in the 1990s from the US Department of Defense, winning a contract to create a multi-purpose ground robot (now PackBot). In early 2016, it sold its defense division to the Arlington Capital Partner investment fund for $ 45 million, deciding to focus on purely civilian products.
What is the place of Russia in the world market
Back in the 1930s, the USSR began testing several modifications of remotely controlled tanks (the so-called teletanks). In the Soviet-Finnish war of 1939-1940, TT-26 teletanks were first used in hostilities, but turned out to be ineffective. Experimental work in the pre-war period was also carried out on projects of remotely controlled pillboxes and even armored trains.
The Soviet military-industrial complex has achieved much greater success in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles. The first remotely controlled supersonic reconnaissance aircraft Tu-123 "Yastreb" was put into service back in 1964.
In 2014, the Russian Ministry of Defense officially adopted the concept of development and combat use of robotic systems for the period up to 2025. In accordance with it, in ten years, the share of robotic systems in the overall structure of weapons and military equipment should be 30%. It was planned to make 2017-2018 milestone in terms of development and supplies to the troops. In February 2016, Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov announced his intention to create separate units from combat combat robots that would be able to independently operate on the battlefield.
Robotics and complex automated systems were assigned to the priorities of the developed State Arms Program for 2016–2025. In 2015, the approval of the new GPV period was postponed to 2018. The work on the document has not yet been completed, but serious financial constraints are already evident, which must be taken into account when planning the costs for the new version.
Rosoboronexport considers such samples as the Uran-9 multifunctional robotic reconnaissance and fire support complex produced by the 766 Office of Production and Technological Procurement as promising for entering the world market. It is equipped with a 2A72 automatic cannon and a 7.62 mm machine gun paired with it, and Ataka anti-tank guided missiles. In September 2016, it became known that by the end of the year, the Russian armed forces should receive five Uran-9 complexes, consisting of four combat vehicles: a reconnaissance robot or a fire support robot, one mobile control center and two tractors, although the end of state tests products have not been officially reported.
The operation in Syria is practically officially regarded as one of the most effective ways to promote domestic weapons and military equipment to the world market. Despite the abundance of absolutely fantastic rumors, the real participation of robotic systems in hostilities is insignificant. It was reported that the Uran-9 systems were present at the Victory Parade at the Khmeimim airbase on May 9, 2016, but there is no reliable information about their combat use.
The Russian light UAS "Orlan-10E" and "Eleron-3SV", as well as the tactical UAV "Forpost" are definitely used. In particular, it was with the help of the UAV that the navigator of the Su-24 shot down by the Turkish Air Force, Konstantin Murakhtin, was discovered and subsequently rescued. The drone operator received a state award for this.
The future of military robots lies in the field of further autonomization and hybridization (new materials, integral biosystems, cognitive technologies, etc.), as well as expanding the scope for new types of weapons, including strategic ones. This is causing a particularly heated debate and allusions to films about a nuclear war provoked by robots. We are talking, for example, about developments capable of carrying nuclear weapons. For example, the Russian underwater robotic multipurpose system "Status-6" or the European unmanned bomber Dassault nEUROn.
