Asteroids have always been a danger to the Earth - just look at the example of the extinction of dinosaurs, but more than 60 million years have passed since then. For all the time of its existence, mankind has not faced such a problem, and, to be honest, they began to think about it for the most part only in the 20th century, when modern powerful telescopes fell into the hands of astronomers. This topic was also addressed by the program of the Ren-TV channel "Military Secret", in which the announcer in a cheerful voice told the listeners that on May 4, 2062, a global catastrophe awaits the Earth, which will be caused by the fall of the asteroid VD17. The scale of the disaster and its likelihood are clearly exaggerated, but the likelihood that humanity can repeat the fate of the dinosaurs does exist.
Currently, the number of potentially dangerous asteroids is estimated at 10 - 20 thousand pieces. But they do not pose a mortal danger to humanity. Studies by David Rabinovich and his colleagues at Yale University in the United States suggest that the estimate of large near-Earth asteroids was greatly overestimated at least twice. If earlier scientists talked about almost 2000 objects with a diameter of more than 1 km, now their number has decreased to 500-1000 pieces. This estimate of the number of celestial bodies was obtained using the NEAT asteroid tracking system, mounted on the US Air Force telescope on the top of Mount Haleakala, located in Hawaii. Currently, almost all asteroids of this weight category have been identified, the same applies to asteroids about 10 km in diameter, which are capable of destroying life on the planet. According to a number of scientists, it was the collision of the Earth with a celestial body about 10 km in diameter that led to the extinction of dinosaurs and about 70% of the planet's flora and fauna.
To date, science knows the two most dangerous asteroids - Apophis and VD17. Both asteroids were discovered back in 2004. Apophis is an asteroid 320 meters in diameter and weighing almost 100 million tons. The probability that this celestial body will collide with the earth on April 13, 2036 is estimated as 1: 5000. Until recently, this asteroid was among the leaders on the Turin scale of asteroid danger, but observation of the celestial body VD17 for 475 days made it the leader. This asteroid with a diameter of 580 meters and weighing under 1 billion tons has the highest probability of collision with the Earth known today. Its chances of colliding with our planet in 2102 are estimated at 1: 1000.
An asteroid of the size VD17, upon collision with the Earth, would form a crater 10 km in diameter and provoke an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4 on the Richter scale (in this case, about 10 thousand megatons of energy would be released, which is comparable to the entire earth's arsenal of nuclear weapons). Fortunately, we, or rather even the next generation, still have a century to take any action on this score.
If we talk about the Turin scale, then both of these celestial bodies - Apophis and VD17 - have a very small value on the hazard scale - 1 and 2 points, respectively. To demonstrate what this means, the scale itself is shown below.
Turin Asteroid Hazard Scale
Events without consequences
0 - the probability of a collision of the Earth with a cosmic body is equal to 0 or lower than the probability of a collision of the Earth with a celestial body unknown to science of comparable size in the coming decades. The same assessment is received by celestial bodies, which will simply burn up in the Earth's atmosphere.
Events that deserve careful verification
1 - The probability of a collision with the Earth is extremely low or equal to the probability of a collision of a planet with an unknown celestial object of the same size.
Astronomers' scrutiny, events of concern
2 - a celestial body will approach the Earth, but a collision will be unlikely.
3 - close enough approach to the planet with a collision probability of 1% and higher. The collision threatens the planet with local destruction.
4 - close enough approach to the planet with a collision probability of 1% and higher. Collision with the Earth threatens regional destruction.
Earth-threatening events
5 - close enough approach to the planet with a serious probability of collision, which may be accompanied by regional destruction.
6 - a close enough approach to the planet with a serious likelihood of a collision, which can provoke a global catastrophe.
7. - a sufficiently close approach to the planet with a very high probability of collision, can cause a catastrophe on a global scale.
Inevitable collisions
8 - collision of the Earth with a celestial body, causing local destruction (such events are noted once every 1000 years)
9 - collision of the Earth with a celestial body, which will cause global destruction on the planet (such events are noted once every 1000-100,000 years)
10 - collision of the Earth with a celestial body, which will lead to a global catastrophe (such events are recorded once every 100,000 years or more).
Despite such a low probability of a collision with two asteroids known to science, one should not discount other, smaller ones, with a diameter of 100 to 300 meters. The fall of such a heavenly gift to Earth may result in the loss of a major city. And in this issue, the efficiency of detecting such celestial bodies comes out on top. It is very important not to oversleep the disaster.
Funnel from the fall of an asteroid in the Arizona desert
So, the asteroid DD45 was discovered on February 28, 2009 and after three days it approached dangerously close to the Earth. Asteroid AL30 three hours after its discovery flew at an altitude of 130,000 km, that is, below the orbit of artificial earth satellites. There were cases when astronomers discovered a dangerous object after the danger. So, on March 23, 1989, astronomers discovered the 300-meter asteroid Asclepius, which crossed the orbit of our planet at a point where the Earth was only 6 hours ago. The asteroid was discovered after it flew off the Earth. Therefore, the main danger is not that an asteroid measuring 300 meters or more will collide with the Earth, it is small enough, but that it will be discovered too late.
They are working on solving this problem not only in the United States, but also in our country. The process of countering the asteroid threat includes three components: 1) regular search for new asteroids and monitoring of objects already known to scientists that pose a threat to the planet; 2) design of means for observation and active counteraction to asteroids; 3) development of accurate and reliable countermeasures.
Vladimir Degtyar - Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences - believes that at the 2nd and 3rd stages it would be possible to use the universal spacecraft "Kapkan", which is capable of either changing the orbit of a celestial body, or destroying it, and for observation and research the characteristics of the asteroid to use the reconnaissance spacecraft "Kaissa". The development of these devices in our country is underway.
The homing, high-precision strike spacecraft "Kapkan" consists of a homing head, an engine, orientation and stabilization equipment. It can be equipped with one percussion or a variable number of percussion modules detachable from the apparatus, each of which has its own propulsion system. After the detection of an asteroid approaching the Earth, the "Trap" enters a predetermined trajectory. The onboard means of the apparatus set the parameters of the motion of the celestial body and make adjustments to the trajectory of the ship's flight. Later, the separation of shock blocks occurs, the ship's equipment records the consequences of an impact on a celestial body and transmits them to Earth.
The main problem is how to make the "Trap" appear at the right time in the right place, because the smaller the size of the asteroid, the more the requirements for its detection range and interception speed increase. Prelaunch preparation should take less than two days. The task of how to deliver the "Trap" to the asteroid is planned to be solved with the help of promising launch vehicles: to asteroids with a diameter of 600-700 meters - with the help of the Rus-M rocket, to asteroids with a diameter of up to 300 meters - with the help of the Soyuz-2 rocket ".
According to the estimates of the specialists of JSC "GRTs Makeev", the amount of expenses for the creation of the necessary spacecraft and their adaptation to the rocket and space complexes will cost approximately 17 billion rubles. and will take about 10 years. The money is quite large, but it cannot be compared with the possible costs of restoring the infrastructure damaged by some accidental asteroid.
