Russia continues to confidently occupy the second place in the volume of arms exports in the world. Such data are cited, among other things, by authoritative Western sources.
For example, according to a research group at the US Congress, in 2014, the revenue of Russian companies from foreign sales amounted to $ 10.2 billion, maintaining approximately the same level as in 2013. The first place went to the United States, which was able to increase sales from $ 26.7 billion to $ 36.2 billion. The rise is attributed to heightened tensions in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula, with South Korea, Qatar and Saudi Arabia making new purchases. The creation of the myth of the "Russian threat" was not without results - even some European countries (especially the Baltic and Scandinavian ones) increased their purchases of foreign weapons, including American ones. Now the United States controls up to 50% of the world arms market. Similar figures are given by the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
A logical question arises: what are the prospects for Russian military exports and can we, like the Americans, noticeably increase sales, taking advantage of the current instability in the world?
To begin with, Russia's arms export portfolio has reached a record size - more than $ 55 billion, according to the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation. Previously, this figure fluctuated between $ 45-50 billion. In the machine-building field, only Rosatom was able to “collect” a portfolio of export orders larger than the military-industrial complex - it exceeded 110 billion dollars.
At the same time, most of the technology that is popular and exported abroad is the modernization of the well-known and well-proven Soviet weapons. In this, in general, there is nothing surprising or reprehensible - this practice also exists in the same USA: successful products can be produced and modernized for more than a dozen years. A good example is the lightweight F-16 fighter, which has been in operation since 1979 and will be in production until at least 2017 (more than 4,500 aircraft of various modifications have been produced so far). Nevertheless, sooner or later the time comes when the modernization potential of the machines comes to an end and the development of a new basic model is required.
For a more detailed consideration of the issue, it is better to talk about separate categories of military equipment.
Su-35 will be the main export fighter before the serial production of the PAK FA?
In the post-Soviet period, fighters based on the Su-27 enjoyed the greatest success on the world arms market. Just what is the Indian "contract of the century" for the supply of 272 two-seater Su-30MKI (the customer has already received more than 200 machines). Another example is the delivery of 130 Su-27 and 98 Su-30 fighters to China (the Chinese refused to buy another 100 Su-27s, having copied everything except the aircraft engines). Nevertheless, the time of the 4th generation fighters is running out - no matter how deep their upgrades may be. One of the last to enter the market is the most modern modification of the Su-27 - the Su-35. The first export contract for these aircraft was signed with China on November 19, 2015 - 24 Russian multifunctional fighters will be sent to China. In December 2015, it became known about the purchase of twelve Su-35s by Indonesia.
Thus, there is still interest in this aircraft, and it is still likely to be exported until the mid-2020s. As for the line of light fighters based on the MiG-29, things are going worse here - the MiG-35 has not yet justified the hopes for it: it lost a large tender in India to the French fighter Rafale (the Russian aircraft was not even seriously considered at the tender), and the Ministry of Defense Each time the Russian Federation postpones the signing of a contract for the supply of these machines, since they do not yet correspond to the declared characteristics.
In any case, the priority for the Russian military-industrial complex should be the 5th generation PAK FA (T-50) fighter and its export version FGFA (Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft). The start of serial production of the aircraft is scheduled for 2017. For successful advancement on the world arms market, the key point should be a contract for the supply of a two-seat modification of the FGFA of the Indian Air Force. So far, the signing of the final agreement has been constantly postponed, despite occasional rumors that a $ 35 billion contract for the supply of 154 fighters is imminent. At the same time, information appears in the Indian media about the doubts of the military regarding the compliance of the aircraft with the declared characteristics and dissatisfaction with its high price. Nevertheless, it is imperative to promote the deal, since in the future, other large markets may open up for the new car, for example, the same Chinese one.
Multipurpose transport aircraft MTA - on the verge of failure
The development of the MTA (Multirole Transport Aircraft), which is being carried out jointly with India, faces even greater challenges than the FGFA. According to local media reports, the Indian military is almost on the verge of withdrawing from the project, and even the meeting of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Russian President Vladimir Putin did not resolve the existing contradictions. They consist in the fact that the Russian side considers it necessary to install on the plane a new modification of the existing PS-90 engine (used on the Il-76 military transport aircraft), and the Indians want to see a car with a completely new engine. At the same time, the management of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) believes that the Indian side provided the requirements for the engine too late, and is going to develop the aircraft in any case - even if India withdraws from the project. Nevertheless, on January 13, the director of the Il company, Sergei Velmozhkin, even announced that the project had been frozen. In his words, the pause was taken to "adjust the program and to clarify the mutual conditions."
MTA should replace the aging An-12, An-26 and An-72 in the Russian army. Nevertheless, India's refusal to purchase an aircraft may somewhat spoil its reputation and prevent the MTA from entering the international arms market, or even bury the project altogether - everything will depend on the decision of the Russian Ministry of Defense: whether or not to purchase the Il-214 (another name for the MTA). Thus, the prospects for this project are very vague.
Interest in the Su-34 bomber is the result of successful use in Syria
Quite recently it became known that Algeria had sent Rosoboronexport an application for the supply of 12 front-line bombers Su-32 (this is not a mistake - this is the name of the export version of the Su-34), local sources even reported about the already signed contract. According to rumors, the purchase amount will be about $ 500 million, and up to 40 aircraft may be ordered by 2022, including modifications of the electronic warfare (EW) aircraft. This deal may become a landmark and be the first step towards popularity in the global arms market. In addition, it became known that Nigeria and, possibly, Uganda are also showing substantive interest in the Su-32. In any case, the spectacular appearance and baptism of fire of the machine in Syria was not in vain - the plane does not “leave” the pages of the world media and proves its high efficiency in carrying out high-precision strikes against ground targets. In addition, the Su-34 is also attractive in that it can perform the functions of a fighter (which is especially important for not the richest countries), since it was also created on the basis of the Su-27 fighter.
Thus, the Su-34 can take its rightful place in the export portfolio in the coming years. The main markets are the countries of Africa, Asia and, possibly, our partners from the CSTO (for example, Kazakhstan, which has already purchased Su-30SM fighters).
Air defense - the transition to a new generation is almost painless
Russian air defense systems have always enjoyed great success abroad. This is especially true of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system (SAM), which was purchased and is still being purchased in large quantities by various countries. For example, China, according to various sources, since 1993 has acquired from 24 to 40 (according to Chinese sources) divisions of this air defense system in various modifications - S-300PMU, S-300PMU-1 and S-300PMU-2. The S-300 was acquired even by a NATO member country - Greece (initially the system was purchased by Cyprus, but after a diplomatic scandal involving Turkey, the air defense missile system was transferred to Greece).
The popularity of the S-300 is due to its excellent tactical and technical characteristics. As for the latest modification, it allows you to fire simultaneously up to 36 targets at a maximum distance of 200 km. At the same time, the system can also be used as a means of anti-missile defense (against operational-tactical missiles and short-range ballistic missiles).
Iran may become the last buyer of the S-300PMU-2 - deliveries of the systems began in January 2015, after an agreement was reached on the Iranian nuclear project. Initially, Iran, having acquired the Tor-M1 short-range air defense system, entered into a contract in 2007 for the supply of S-300, but the deal was frozen, and Iran filed a claim against the Russian Federation in the Geneva Arbitration Court for $ 4 billion. This claim has now been withdrawn.
In the future, more advanced air defense systems S-400 "Triumph" and a cheaper, simplified S-350 "Vityaz" will be exported. The prospects for the former are especially good - the S-400 is noticeably superior to all its competitors in most indicators. A contract has already been signed for the supply of at least six divisions of the Triumphs to China (the amount of the deal is more than $ 3 billion). The Indian leadership approved the purchase of the same S-400, and the signing of the contract can be expected in the foreseeable future. We can talk about the purchase of 10 divisions, worth about $ 6 billion. Probably, other interested persons will appear soon - the Almaz-Antey Concern of the East Kazakhstan region has only recently reached sufficient production capacity to simultaneously supply S-400s both to the Russian troops and abroad.
As for other air defense systems - small and medium-range, they are also in good demand - especially the Tor air defense system and the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft cannon-artillery complex. The results of the Buk medium-range air defense system are slightly worse.
Ground vehicles: "Armata", "Kurganets-25", "Boomerang" and "Coalition-SV" - future "stars"?
With regard to land technology, “generational change” is especially relevant. For example, such a popular model of a tank as the T-90 abroad has actually exhausted its modernization potential - the tank is a deep modernization of the Soviet T-72, which has been produced since 1973, which means more than 40 years. For comparison, the American M1A1 Abrams went on the assembly line seven years later, and the German Leopard 2 six years later. The British Challenger 2 tank and the French Leclerc have been in production since 1983 and 1990, respectively. This is one of the reasons why Russia began to create a new generation of armored vehicles first. As for the T-90, its last modification, apparently, will be the T-90AM (SM in export modification).
As for the existing export prospects of the T-90, they are coming to an end. It is possible to sign several more contracts for the T-90SM with the Middle Eastern countries, but this course of events is somewhat complicated by the existing foreign policy situation (in Syria, Russia actually opposes the interests of the main buyers - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which, oddly enough, does not prevent the parties from negotiating large deliveries). On the other hand, the Iranian market becomes open. The T-90 itself turned out to be a "gold mine" for Uralvagonzavod - licensed production of the tank has been established in India, the Indian army already has more than 800 tanks of this model, by 2020 their number should be close to 2000. In any case, the beginning of 2020 is x is likely to be the moment when the T-90 saturates the arms market and requires a new platform. The same applies to such armored vehicles as BMP-3 and BTR-82A, etc. New modifications of the aforementioned armored vehicles can still be sold for several years, but great prospects after 2020 are unlikely to await them.
Therefore, it is very important, in spite of any difficulties, to bring the equipment of the new generation demonstrated at the Victory Parade 2015 in Moscow to mass production, while achieving the declared tactical and technical characteristics. The T-14 tank and the T-15 heavy infantry fighting vehicle, created on the Armata heavy tracked platform, can be especially interesting proposals. The main feature of the T-15 is an uninhabited turret; at the moment it is the only tank in the world that has such an arrangement, which, along with an active protection system, should protect the crew as much as possible. The concept of a heavy infantry fighting vehicle with protection almost equal to a tank should be in demand in modern urban battles, when opponents have an abundance of anti-tank weapons that can easily defeat conventional armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.
Created on a modular basis, medium BMPs and armored personnel carriers on the Kurganets-25 tracked platform also have noticeably better protection compared to the BMP-3 and BTR-82A. This also applies to the light wheeled armored personnel carrier "Boomerang". The self-propelled artillery unit (SAU) of 152 mm caliber "Coalition-SV" should "press out" the German 155-mm ACS PzH-2000, which is considered the best.
It has been repeatedly stated that all of the above equipment will first go to the Russian troops, and only then for export (like, for example, the S-400 air defense system). Thus, the first foreign contracts should be expected closer to 2025.
Conclusion: "generational change" is inevitable
As we can see, in the Russian arms export, and in the military-industrial complex, the most important moment of the generational change is coming: the departure from the modernized Soviet models of equipment to the newly created Russian ones. This process was / is easiest in the field of air defense, and the most difficult in aviation. As for armored vehicles, it is too early to talk about the success of the “generational change” - this process will begin closer to 2020, but it is inevitable, and one must approach it ready. If we talk about the export of marine equipment, this topic is very extensive, especially in connection with the problems that arose against the background of anti-Russian Western sanctions, and its consideration requires a separate analysis.
Another problem is the rise in the cost of new technology in comparison with Soviet and modernized Soviet ones. Thus, competition with Western manufacturers becomes possible in the “quality” plane, and it will be more and more difficult to attract customers with a much cheaper price tag.
A lot depends on the success or failure in the development and successful export of new military equipment, including the combat capability of the Russian army, since the huge funds received from foreign buyers make it possible to actively develop the domestic military-industrial complex and create more and more advanced weapons.
Journal "New defense order. Strategies" №1 (38), 2016
