Zhuhai, China - A year after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the cash-strapped Kremlin sold to China much of its vast military arsenal, including the pride of the Russian Air Force, the Su-27.
Over the next 15 years, Russia became China's largest arms supplier, supplying the country with $ 20 billion to $ 30 billion in fighters, destroyers, submarines, tanks and missiles. It even sold Beijing a license to manufacture the Su-27 fighter from imported Russian parts.
But today this gold mine has dried up for Russia, and for China it is just beginning.
After years of work to copy Russian weapons, China has reached a turning point. It can now independently manufacture many weapons systems, including the most advanced fighters such as the Su-27. He is also about to build his own aircraft carrier.
Chinese engineers not only cloned the avionics and the Su-27 radar. They are also equipping their plane with the final piece of this technical puzzle - a Chinese-built jet engine.
Over the past two years, Beijing has not placed a single large order in Russia.
And now China is also beginning to export a significant part of its weapons, undermining Russia's position in the developing world, which could lead to a change in the balance of power in a number of hot spots on our planet.
Such an epoch-making change could literally be physically felt in the Russian pavilion during the air show held in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai in November. Russia used to be the star of the show, enthralling audiences with performances by its Russian Knights aerobatic team, displaying fighters, helicopters and transport aircraft, and winning billions of dollars in contracts.
She didn't bring a single real plane to the show this year - just a handful of plastic models, looked after by dozens of bored salespeople.
China, unlike Russia, has put on public display and for sale the largest consignment of its military equipment. And almost all of it is based on Russian technologies and production secrets.
Pakistani pilots from the Sherdils aerobatic team were guests of honor at this air show. They flew on aircraft of Russian origin, which are currently produced by Pakistan and China.
“We were senior partners in this relationship - and now we have become junior partners,” says Ruslan Pukhov, who is a member of the Public Council under the Ministry of Defense, a civilian advisory body of the military department.
Russia's predicament is a reflection of the situation with many foreign companies. China begins to compete on the world market, offering its modern trains, power equipment and other civilian products, which are based on technologies obtained in the West.
But in this case, there is an additional aspect related to security. China is developing weapons systems, including aircraft carriers and carrier-based aircraft, that can threaten Taiwan and challenge American control of the western Pacific.
The export of fighters and other modern weapons from China also threatens to change the military balance in southern Asia, Sudan and Iran.
In terms of its military power, China still lags far behind the United States, which is far ahead of all other countries in the production and export of weapons. From 2005 to 2009, China accounted for 2% of global arms sales, and Beijing was the world's ninth largest exporter. Such data are cited by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
But since the defeat of Japan in 1945, no Asian country has attempted to project its military power.
China's rapid assimilation of Russian technology raises questions about US cooperation with civilians in the Chinese military industry.
China Aviation Company Aviation Industry Corp. (AVIC), for example, builds fighters. But it also builds new passenger aircraft with the help of General Electric and other US aerospace companies. A General Electric spokesman says his company has worked in partnership with overseas engine manufacturers for decades and has created "strong protections" over that time to ensure that its intellectual property is preserved.
Unpleasant complications could arise for the American weapons program. Last year, the Pentagon decided to cut funding for the F-22, currently the world's most advanced fighter jet. This was partly due to the fact that China will not have such aircraft for at least another 15 years.
But after that, the deputy commander of the Chinese Air Force, General He Weirong (He Weirong) announced that in the near future will begin flight tests of the Chinese version of such aircraft, which will enter service "in 8-10 years."
The US Defense Intelligence Agency now says it will take China "about 10 years" to adopt "significant numbers" of fighters using stealth technology.
In the meantime, the dispute between Moscow and Beijing over intellectual property rights for such weapons systems could be a real test for their efforts to overcome historical rivalries and move to a new era of friendly relations.
"In the past, we did not pay enough attention to our intellectual property," said a spokesman for the Russian military industry, "and now China is even creating competition for us in the international market."
This is most clearly demonstrated by the Chinese J-11B fighter, which, according to Russian officials, is a direct copy of the single-seat Su-27 fighter developed by the Soviets in the 70s and 80s in order to create a machine equivalent to the American F-15 and F. -16.
Until the early 90s, Moscow did not supply weapons to China due to the ideological split that occurred in 1956. This split even led to brief border skirmishes in 1969.
But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Kremlin desperately needed hard currency. In 1992, China became the first country outside the post-Soviet space to purchase 24 Su-27 aircraft and pay $ 1 billion for them.
This deal was a huge success for China, which in its military plans abandoned an attack on Soviet lands and now wanted to realize territorial claims to Taiwan and territories located in the South China and East China Seas.
Efforts to modernize China's air force and navy have been thwarted by the US and EU arms embargo following the crackdown on Tiananmen Square protests.
According to Western military officials, the Chinese realized the urgent need for a program to modernize their army after the first Gulf War, when the United States demonstrated its overwhelming fire and strike power.
A breakthrough in Beijing's efforts came in 1996 when it paid Russia $ 2.5 billion for a license to assemble another 200 Su-27s at Shenyang Aircraft Company facilities.
The agreement stipulated that this aircraft, dubbed the J-11, would use avionics, radar stations and engines imported from Russia and would not be exported.
But, having built 105 such aircraft, China in 2004 unexpectedly canceled this contract, stating that the aircraft no longer meets its requirements. Russian officials and experts from the military industry are talking about this.
Three years later, Russian fears were confirmed when China aired its own version of the fighter on state television, dubbed the J-11B.
“When we sold the license, everyone knew they would do that. It was a risk, and we took it,”says Vasily Kashin, a Russian expert on the Chinese army. "It was a matter of survival at the time."
The J-11B is nearly identical to the Su-27, but Beijing has stated that it is 90% Chinese and uses more advanced Chinese avionics and radar. There is only a Russian engine, the Chinese said.
And now the plane is equipped with Chinese engines, as said by the deputy president of AVIC Zhang Xinguo (Shenyang Aircraft is part of this corporation).
“This is not to say that this is just a copy,” he says. - Mobile phones all look the same. But technology is advancing very quickly. Even if on the outside everything looks the same, on the inside, not everything is the same."
The J-11B presented Russia with a difficult choice - to continue selling weapons to China at the risk of being cloned, or to cut off supplies and lose its share of the highly profitable market.
Initially, Russia wanted to end negotiations to sell a Su-33 folding-wing fighter jet to China that could be used on aircraft carriers.
But then she resumed negotiations, although she rejected the Chinese offer to purchase only two cars, and insisted on the supply of a larger batch.
The official position of the Sukhoi holding company is that it is confident in its business in China.
Indeed, many aviation experts believe that AVIC is having trouble building a Chinese engine for the J-11B with the same thrust and durability as the original Russian engine.
Sukhoi believes that China will have to purchase the Su-33 on Russian terms, as Beijing will find it difficult to build its own carrier-based fighter in time by the time the first Chinese aircraft carriers are launched in 2011 or 2012.
The company also hopes to sell China a more modern version of the Su-27, the Su-35, if the J-11B lacks performance.
“We just hope that our plane will be better,” says Sergey Sergeev, deputy general director of Sukhoi. "It's one thing to make a good quality copy of a spoon, and quite another to make a copy of an airplane."
The governments of Russia and China refuse to comment on this matter.
But privately, Russian officials are expressing fears that China will soon begin mass production and export of modern fighters - without Russian help. From 2001 to 2008, China purchased $ 16 billion worth of Russian weapons, which is 40% of total Russian sales.
Photos have recently been posted on Chinese military websites showing the engines installed on the J-11B and its modified version, the J-15, which will be used on aircraft carriers.
This further heightened Russian fears that China had simply copied the Su-33, which it acquired in 2001 from Ukraine. This information was shared by Russian experts in the military industry.
At last year's Dubai Air Show, China unveiled its L-15 trainer for the first time. In June, China made its debut at the Eurosatory arms exhibition held in France.
In July, China demonstrated its JF-17 fighter jointly with Pakistan overseas for the first time. It happened at the British Farnborough Air Show.
In September, China had one of the largest pavilions at the Cape Town arms show.
"They show up at arms shows they've never participated in before," says Siemon T. Wezeman, an arms dealer at SIPRI. "If 15 years ago they had nothing at all, today they offer tolerable equipment at reasonable prices."
China is of particular interest to developing countries. In particular, they are interested in the relatively inexpensive Russian-powered JF-17 fighter.
The Kremlin agreed to re-export this engine to Pakistan, since it did not deal with the arms trade there.
But last year he flew into a rage when the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan began negotiations to acquire the JF-17, according to people familiar with the situation.
Also last year, Chinese JF-17s and Russian MiG-29s competed in a tender in Myanmar, which ultimately chose the Russians, but paid less than they wanted.
This year, two countries are participating in the tender in Egypt. There, China offered the JF-17 at $ 10 million less than Russia for its $ 30 million MiG-29.
This prompted Mikhail Poghosyan, who heads Sukhoi and the MiG company, to come up with a proposal that the Kremlin stop supplying Russia with JF-17 engines to China.
So far, the Kremlin has not done so, but Russian officials are privately talking about the possibility of legal action in the event that China increases the export of modern aircraft like the J-11B.
Last month, the Russian government launched a new legislative initiative to include provisions on intellectual property rights in agreements on the supply of weapons to foreign states.
According to people familiar with this situation, President Dmitry Medvedev also raised this issue during his visit to China in October.
“Of course we are concerned. But we also realize that there is almost nothing we can do,”says Pukhov of the Defense Ministry's Public Council.
Asked what advice he would give to Western aerospace companies, Sukhoi's Sergeev said: “They should be mindful of whether they are selling civilian or dual-use products. And it is extremely important to prepare the contractual documentation very carefully”.
If Russia is concerned about the issue of intellectual property, then other countries are concerned about security issues. The weapons programs initiated by China 20-30 years ago are beginning to bear fruit, which could have serious implications for the regional as well as the global balance of military forces.
It is expected that the J-11B will be used by the Chinese Navy as a front-line fighter capable of conducting long-term combat operations over the entire waters of the South China and East China Seas.
Aircraft carriers and J-15 fighters will further strengthen the PRC's combat capabilities to deny American intervention in the conflict over Taiwan, as well as challenge American control over the western Pacific.
Chinese arms exports can have an impact on conflict areas around the world. Pakistan adopted the first squadron of Chinese-made fighters in February, which could change the balance of power with India.
Other potential buyers of Chinese JF-17 fighters include Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Venezuela, Nigeria, Morocco and Turkey. Earlier, China sold a batch of fighters to Sudan.
Of the potential buyers of Chinese weapons, the United States is most concerned about Iran. According to the Russian Center for the Analysis of World Arms Trade, between 2002 and 2009, Iran purchased arms from China for a total of about $ 260 million.
In June, the PRC came out for UN sanctions against Iran, including for the introduction of an arms embargo. However, Tehran is still trying to get deals for the sale of Chinese fighters and other weapons systems.
