The rapidly developing aircraft industry complex of the Celestial Empire presented a new light fighter with high export potential. Will this machine prove to be a competitor to the products of the Russian defense industry?
The Yemeni government is considering the purchase of Chinese fighters FC-1 Xiaolong ("Furious Dragon"). They are already being supplied to Pakistan, arousing interest in a number of Asian and African countries, and therefore in the next decade they are able to turn China into a serious player in the market of cheap multifunctional aircraft systems.
Quiet breakthrough in the secondary sector of the front
In fact, this aircraft is actually our MiG-21. More precisely, it is the ultimate that the concept of this extremely successful Soviet fighter could be squeezed out at the current technological stage with the installation of new engines and modern element base.
The creation of this machine goes back to 1986, when the Chinese collaborated with the American company "Grumman" on the deep modernization of their J-7 aircraft (this is exactly the MiG-21, which underwent "reverse engineering" and is produced at Chinese enterprises). The joint Super-7 project gave the Chinese aviation industry several original technological developments, but after the suppression of the uprising in Tiananmen Square, it was gradually phased out and by 1990 it was completely stopped. But in the 90s, many Russian specialists in the field of aviation technology were left idle, who quite actively began to advise their Chinese colleagues.
What happened at the exit? The maximum take-off weight of the vehicle does not exceed 13 tons, it is equipped with a solid avionics complex (despite the refusal of the Chinese from the Russian-developed radar), as well as modern optoelectronic systems. The layout of the aircraft is similar to its predecessor, the J-7, but creatively incorporates some of the solutions spied on by the American F-16. Seven points of suspension can carry up to 8,000 lb (3,629 kg) combat load.
Of course, the PRC Air Force will also receive the aircraft, but now their priorities are "more attractive metal" - the heavier J-10 fighter, created, among others, under the influence of the Israeli Lavi and the American F-16 with extensive borrowing of the Russian Su-27 solutions. In fact, when we talk about the FC-1, we are talking about a full-fledged light fighter designed to replace the fleet of outdated multi-functional aircraft of the second or third generations, which are in large numbers in service with poor countries and are rapidly failing for technical reasons.
This is primarily a huge pool of Soviet aircraft of the MiG-21 family, their Chinese counterparts J-7 (F-7 in export designation), as well as the American F-4 Phantom, F-5 Tiger and the French Mirages F.1. It is impossible not to mention very ancient ground support aircraft like the Chinese Q-5 Fantan - a deep modernization of the Soviet MiG-19, which has successfully taken root in the air forces of some African and Asian states, including North Korea.
The Chinese estimate the potential export market for the Dragons at 250-300 units, which is quite a lot. Some experts go further, believing that the potential for modernizing the fleets of developing countries reaches up to 400-500 fighters and the Chinese aircraft may well take the overwhelming share of this quota (which is, however, of a purely theoretical nature, primarily for financial reasons).
The wings of big politics
In the mid-90s, Pakistan became interested in the development of the FC-1, having just lost the opportunity to purchase the F-16 from the United States. Islamabad turned to its traditional military-technical lifesaver - Beijing, which is doing everything to put a spoke in the wheels of the primordial Asian rival - India. In the Pakistani contract, the Dragon became the Thunder, designated JF-17 Thunder. Moreover, in recent years in Pakistan, little by little, the "screwdriver" production of these machines for its own Air Force has begun to develop.
The story of Pakistani interest in the fighter jet worried another strong player in the regional arms market - Moscow. In early 2007, Russia blocked the export of JF-17 to third countries. The lever of influence on the Chinese arms business was the RD-93 engines, which are a version of the Russian RD-33 family (designed for MiG-29 aircraft) with changes in the assembly box layout.
According to the completely frank admission of Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, this was done for political reasons, so as not to violate mutual understanding between Moscow and Delhi. On the other hand, I really didn’t want to choose between our two most important partners in the field of military-technical cooperation. Beijing pretended nothing was happening.
As a result, less than three months have passed since the delivery of the first batch of fighters with Russian engines to Pakistan did take place. Officials of the Russian Federation did not comment on the situation, but a number of sources gave their interpretations of such behavior of Beijing as a violation of bilateral agreements.
In mid-2007, the delicate situation was legalized de jure: Vladimir Putin put his signature under a set of agreements authorizing the Russian side to re-export the RD-93 to Pakistan. For several months, our MTC specialists have been working hard to smooth things over in relations with India, which reacts very painfully to any attempts to rearm its northwestern neighbor. I had to prove to the Indians that the JF-17 is almost a "garbage" apparatus, which cannot be compared with the one supplied by Moscow to Delhi (and if the latter is true, then there is a great deal of deceit in the first statement). By the way, it was at this time that the agreement on the transfer of technologies of the same RD-33 family to India and the deployment of licensed production there came into force.
Back in the early 2000s, China began to develop its own engine, which is an analogue of the RD-33, and is now close to setting up its serial production under the designation WS-13 Taishan. Now this is an absolutely raw, unfinished piece of work, heavier than its progenitor by about 9 percent, which, according to some data, has a motor life of no more than 100-120 hours and major problems with traction. In other words, this is exactly what in 5-6 years may well become a reliable and solid engine of light fighters, the “de facto standard” of power units for inexpensive third world aviation. The Chinese technological policy (and by no means only the defense one) provides grounds for such optimism.
Troubled prospects
In July 2010, Mikhail Pogosyan, who now heads the AHK Sukhoi and RSK MiG, the leading domestic developers of fighter aircraft, sharply opposed the continuation of the practice of supplying RD-93 engines to China, believing that the JF-17 is a rival of the MiG-29 in markets of developing countries. This is actually the first direct recognition of the competitive advantages of Chinese aircraft over domestic models.
The potential Yemeni contract can be considered a very good, almost polygon illustration of the fears of our experts. The backbone of the Yemeni Air Force is made up of Soviet fighters MiG-29A and MiG-29SMT, MiG-21MF, fighter-bombers MiG-23BN, as well as American F-5E Tiger (40-45 planes of the scheduled composition, according to some estimates, are combat-ready from 10 to 20 units of each type)."Thunder" may well replace a fair amount of cars in this battered park, to a certain extent duplicating functions of each other, thereby also allowing the Yemeni government to save on spare parts and repairs.
It cannot be said that the Yemeni situation is unique. As already noted, there are quite a few poor countries in the world, which in various ways got the battered Soviet or American aircraft of previous generations, now failing both morally and in places already in physical wear and tear. The latter is especially typical for African countries, where the maintenance and operational services of the Air Force are traditionally weak.
Moreover, on the Black Continent, Beijing has an effective lever of influence on the sale of China's aircraft. In recent years, many experts have noted the active and rather assertive, as they would say in the Soviet years, "the penetration of Chinese capital" into Central and South Africa. Chinese companies receive concessions for the extraction of minerals, improve infrastructure, build roads and power plants, and invest huge sums of money in growing crops.
The "exclusive" line of military-technical cooperation also fits into the logic of developing ties with African regimes. Lending money to poor South African states for their purchase of JF-17s to replace the MiG-21s crumbling from neglect is a completely natural step.
Among the countries interested in the fighter, in addition to the already named Pakistan and Yemen, there are Nigeria and Zimbabwe, as well as Bangladesh, Egypt, Sudan and, which is typical, Iran. And in August 2010, Azerbaijan said that it was considering the possibility of purchasing 24 JF-17 fighters. At the same time, as far as is known, no consultations were held with Moscow, which is a traditional major partner of Baku in military-technical cooperation.
It is still too early to say that Mikhail Poghosyan's fears are gradually starting to come true, primarily because of the obvious dependence of the Chinese aircraft on the supply of Russian engines. But how long will this dependence play its role against the background of the development of a new power plant in the PRC, and what will happen next?
