Today, the development of space technologies, as well as the very high dependence of the economy on space (some states) leads to an increase in confrontation outside our planet. This is the point of view that Vitaly Davydov, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Advanced Research, adheres to. According to this specialist, European countries and the United States are currently taking all possible steps in order to direct all their scientific and technological potential towards achieving advantages in space, including in the military sphere. Davydov notes that, taking into account the very high importance of space, the likelihood of confrontation in it is quite high. The specialist spoke about this at a special meeting at the Mission Control Center (MCC), which was devoted to the development of the rocket and space industry in Russia. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin chaired the meeting.
According to Vitaly Davydov, it is very important to know what exactly is happening today in near-earth orbit, which could potentially become a new theater of military operations. The expert noted that this is a task that involves doing serious work on the outer space control system, which the Federal Space Agency is currently working on. We are talking about a warning system for dangerous encounters in space. Davydov also added that it is necessary not only to know where this or that spacecraft is, but also to provide a complete understanding of what state it is currently in. Knowing this, we will be able to better understand what our potential adversary is preparing, since in today's realities, any large-scale hostilities begin with a change in the configuration or activity of a satellite constellation deployed in space.
It is worth noting that by the spring of 2014, the process of forming the United Rocket and Space Corporation (URSC) will be completed in Russia. Igor Komarov, who holds the post of deputy head of Roscosmos, has already spoken about this earlier. It is assumed that at the first stage there will be a process of corporatization of the Research Institute of Space Instrumentation, the process of transferring shares to federal ownership, after which changes will be made to the authorized capital of the URSC. All this will take time. It is assumed that the URCS will be able to be created by April 2014, Igor Komarov said in an interview with the Russian ITAR-TASS news agency. Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the development of the Russian defense industry, announced that the new corporation would include space-related enterprises that operate not only in the civilian sphere. The URCS should also include those enterprises and organizations that are working on orders from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Crisis in the Russian space industry
At the same time, the state of affairs in the space sector in Russia today cannot be called successful. Yuri Koptev, who holds the post of chairman of the scientific and technical council of the state corporation "Rostec", speaking at the expert council in the Federation Council of Russia, noted that at present the Russian space group lags behind even the space groups of China and India. According to him, the state of the Russian orbital group can be described as catastrophic. Currently, the Chinese orbital constellation is superior to the Russian one. And if we pay attention to its substantive part, we are now inferior both in civil and military units. We are inferior in meteorology, Earth sounding, in connection not only with the US and European groupings, but also with the orbital groupings of India and China.
In the materials that were distributed among the media, it is directly stated that the Russian rocket and space industry is almost uncompetitive in modern realities. The exception is a number of specific and rather narrow segments of services for launching and manned space exploration. At present, Russia is also losing its positions in the field of scientific space. Former head of Roscosmos Yuri Koptev connects many of the industry's current problems with a fairly large number of imported components. According to Koptev, there are already about 600 types of such components in the Russian cosmonautics. At the same time, Russia uses components of the Industry category, without guarantees that they will be able to withstand operating conditions in space. In addition, according to Yuri Koptev, there is simply no production of more than 500 necessary materials in Russia.
Today the catastrophic situation in which the Russian space industry is located can be seen with the naked eye. This is not only about emergency starts, which have become much more frequent in recent years. We are also talking about a real rollback in the exploration of outer space, the interruption of the development of space technology, the degradation of the space group. A year ago, the Russian Ministry of Defense refused to adopt the GLONASS satellite navigation system. Then it was said that this delay was caused by the delay in the process of processing the documents, but a whole year passed, and the documents were never completed. Currently, there is no talk of putting the group on alert, most likely, it’s not about papers, but about “hardware”.
In December 2012, Russia canceled the launch of the spacecraft, which belongs to the next generation - Glonass-K. Then we were convinced that this launch should take place in February-March 2013, but soon it will be February 2014, and Russia is still sending the Glonass-M spacecraft into orbit, which already belong to the last day. And even these devices do not always reach.
At the same time, JSC Russian Space Systems (RKS), which is the main creator of the space and ground equipment of the GLONASS system, after the expulsion from his post of General Designer Yuri Urlichich, accused and defamed with embezzlement (the size of which is legendary), was subjected to a real pogrom. A number of leading specialists of the company were dismissed from their posts, and some breakthrough developments were curtailed. At the same time, the criminal case against Urlichich collapsed, and the space company, which literally 3 years ago was considered one of the most successful in the Roscosmos system, cannot be classified as such. If in the financial report for 2011 published on the official website of "RSK" a billion-dollar profit was recorded, then the report for 2012 did not appear at all. According to rumors, the company ended 2013 with a loss of 9 billion rubles. Perhaps these rumors are grossly exaggerated, but the general trend is understandable.
Now we can already say that the short "reign" of Vladimir Popovkin in Roscosmos turned into a serious fall for the entire industry. The damage done to prestige, scientific and industrial potential will be difficult to compensate. First of all, for the reason that specialists were lost who promoted certain space technologies and space technology. Preservation of the remaining personnel and potential that has been preserved is very important in the light of the reform of Roscosmos that has begun.
The moon is one of the priorities
By the middle of the XXI century, the Moon may become a kind of seventh continent of our planet, at least as experts predict. It is assumed that humanity will be engaged in the development of the circumpolar regions of the natural satellite of the Earth, bases will be built on the Moon, while it is possible that the Moon will become a place of collision of economic interests of various states. At present, some representatives of the scientific community draw a parallel between the Arctic shelf and the Moon, believing that a real competition can unfold on the satellite. Various states will try to take possession of the regions located near the lunar poles, where the best places for the arrangement of habitable bases are located.
It was at the poles of the moon that a large amount of ice was found, from which it would be possible to obtain drinking water, oxygen for astronauts and hydrogen, i.e., rocket fuel. In addition, the Moon is rich in various useful resources, rare metals for the Earth. Their production can be established in the immediate vicinity of the orbital bases. The extraction of metals from the lunar soil and their subsequent delivery to Earth still seems to be an exorbitantly expensive task, but over time, especially against the background of the depletion of Earth's reserves, it may become in demand, which will also lead to competition.
The Outer Space Treaty, which was concluded back in 1967, proclaimed the natural satellite of the Earth to be the property of all mankind. On the moon, you can stake out a section of the surface, but this step has no legal justification. Placing various flags on the moon is also perceived only symbolically. Therefore, Vyacheslav Rodin, Deputy Director of the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes the comparison of the Arctic with the Moon is not entirely correct. In his opinion, the Moon as a storehouse of useful scientific knowledge will need to be mastered by joint efforts of countries.
In this regard, Russia's experience in conducting long-term space missions may be useful. Rodin explained that Russia is currently working on a serious program for the development of our satellite. This program envisages sending two landing and one orbiters to the Moon. The landing modules will have to land at the South and North Poles. The program is valid until 2023. According to a number of experts, its successful implementation will help Russia regain its shaken leadership in space exploration.
According to the announced plans, the launch of the Russian lander "Luna-Glob" should take place in 2015, the orbital module - in 2016. In October 2013, there were reports that the landing site of the Russian probe Luna-Resurs, which is scheduled to launch in 2019, could in the future become a site for the deployment of a Russian base on the Moon. In addition, Russia continues to show interest in Mars, participating in the ExoMars project. This two-mission project is planned for 2016 and 2018.
