Nanosatellites will soon become part of combat systems along with drones
A report with a commercial forecast for the development of the world market for military satellites has been published in the United States. In 2012, this segment of the space industry was estimated at $ 11.8 billion. The authors of the report believe that it will grow by 3.9% annually. And in 2022 it will reach $ 17.3 billion.
It should be noted that long-term forecasts in the field of astronautics have always been distinguished, to put it mildly, unreliability. The development of the industry is strongly influenced by politics and economics. Often, project financing depends on the ambitions of the country's leadership. And even more often - from the state of the economy. In a crisis, they begin to save on the most expensive programs with a long-term return cycle. And the easiest way to sequester is the obscure spending on space.
But recently, a stronger influence factor has invaded astronautics - the rapid change of technological generations. Now it is no longer possible to stretch the creation of a spacecraft (AC) for 10-15 years, which was the norm before. During this time, the device manages to become outdated, without ever starting to work. A similar thing happened with heavy communication satellites at the end of the twentieth century. Fiber-optic communication lines, which in a short time entangled the whole world, made long-distance communication widely available, cheap and reliable. As a result, dozens of satellite transponders were not in demand, which resulted in heavy losses.
The rapid change of technological generations has led to the development of the main trends in the design and manufacture of spacecraft - these are miniaturization, modularity, and efficiency. Satellites are becoming smaller in size and weight, require less energy, ready-made elements and assemblies are used in the design and manufacture, which greatly reduces the production time and cost. And the cost of launching a light satellite is cheaper.
Navigation everywhere
At present, the number of space launches in the world is much lower than in the 1970s and 1980s. This is primarily due to a significant increase in the survivability of the spacecraft. The normal service life of satellites in orbit is 15–20 years. It is no longer required, since the satellite will inevitably become obsolete by this time.
Among military spacecraft, the share of communications satellites is 52.8%, intelligence and surveillance - 28.4%, navigation satellites occupy 18.8%. But it is the sector of navigation satellites that has a steady upward trend.
Currently, the orbital constellation of US navigation satellites of the NAVSTAR GPS system includes 31 spacecraft, all of which are operating as intended. Since 2015, it is planned to replace the constellation with third-generation satellites as part of the development of the system to the level of GPS III. The US Air Force plans to acquire a total of 32 GPS III spacecraft.
Roskosmos expects to reach the accuracy of determining coordinates by the GLONASS system by less than 10 cm by 2020, said the head of the department Vladimir Popovkin at a meeting of the Russian government, where the space program until 2020 was considered. “Today, the measurement accuracy is 2, 8 meters, by 2015 we will reach 1, 4 meters, by 2020 by 0, 6 meters,” said the head of Roscosmos, noting that “taking into account the additions that have been implemented today, in fact, it will be less than 10 centimeters accurate. Add-ons are ground stations for differential correction of the navigation signal. At the same time, the current GLONASS orbital constellation should be replaced with next-generation spacecraft, the number of which will be increased to 30.
The European Union is creating its navigation system together with the European Space Agency. It was planned in 2014-2016 to create a constellation of 30 spacecraft - 27 operating in the system and 3 standby ones. Due to the economic crisis, these plans may be postponed for several years.
In 2020, the PRC intends to complete the creation of the Beidou national satellite navigation system. The system was launched into commercial operation on December 27, 2012 as a regional positioning system, with an orbital constellation of 16 satellites. This provided a navigation signal in China and neighboring countries. In 2020, 5 spacecraft should be deployed in geostationary orbit and 30 satellites outside the geostationary orbit, which will allow the entire territory of the planet to be covered with a navigation signal.
In June 2013, India intends to launch the first navigation satellite of its national system IRNSS (Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System) from the Sriharikota island off the southern coast of Andhra Pradesh. The launch into orbit will be carried out by the Indian PSLV-C22 launch vehicle. The second satellite is planned to be launched into space by the end of 2013. Five more will be launched in 2014-2015. Thus, a regional navigation satellite system will be created, covering the Indian subcontinent and about 1,500 km from its borders with an accuracy of 10 m.
Japan went its own way, creating the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS, "Quasi-Zenith Satellite System") - a system for time synchronization and differential correction of the GPS navigation signal for Japan. This regional satellite system is designed to obtain a higher quality position signal when using GPS. It does not work separately. The first Michibiki satellite was launched into orbit in 2010. In the coming years, it is planned to withdraw three more. QZSS signals will cover Japan and the Western Pacific.
Mobile phone in orbit
Microelectronics is perhaps the fastest growing area of modern technology. Samsung Electronics, Apple and Google are ready to present the "smart" watch-computer literally in the coming months. Is it any wonder that spacecraft are getting smaller and smaller? New materials and nanotechnology make space devices more compact, lighter and more energy efficient. It can be considered that the era of small spacecraft has already begun. Depending on their weight, they are now divided into the following categories: up to 1 kg - "pico", up to 10 kg - "nano", up to 100 kg - "micro", up to 1000 kg - "mini". Even 10 years ago, microsatellites weighing 50-60 kg seemed to be an outstanding achievement. Now the worldwide trend is nanosatellites. More than 80 of them have already been launched into space.
Just as the production and development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is carried out in many countries that did not even think about their own aviation industry before, so the design of nanosatellites is now being carried out in many universities, laboratories and even individual amateurs. Moreover, the cost of such devices, assembled on the basis of ready-made elements, turns out to be extremely low. Sometimes the base of a nanosatellite design is an ordinary mobile phone.
A smartphone was sent into orbit from India, which was used as the basis for the Strand-1 experimental satellite within the framework of the Sat-Smartphone project. The satellite was developed in the UK jointly by the University of Surrey Space Center (SSC) and Surrey Satellite Technology (SSTL). The weight of the device is 4, 3 kg, the dimensions are 10x10x30 cm. In addition to the smartphone, the device contains the usual set of working components - power supply and control systems. At the first stage, the satellite will be controlled by a standard on-board computer, then this function will be completely taken over by a smartphone.
The Android operating system with a number of specially designed applications allows for a number of experiments. The iTesa app will record the magnetic field values as the satellite moves. With the help of another application, the built-in camera will take pictures that will be transmitted for publication on Facebook and Twitter. And this is only a small part of the research program. The mission will last six months. Return to Earth is not envisaged. Cosmonautics has ceased to be the lot of the elite.
The most important conclusion: military and space technologies are no longer the locomotive of the development of civilian industry. Quite the opposite - civil science-intensive developments allow the development of military space technology. The revenues of companies producing consumer goods are many times higher than the revenues of defense corporations. The world's electronics leaders can spend billions of dollars on new developments. And strong competition forces us to do everything in the shortest possible time.
Nanosatellites are advancing
In 2005, Russian cosmonaut Salizhan Sharipov simply threw the first Russian nanosatellite TNS-1 into space from the International Space Station. The device weighing 4.5 kg was created in just a year at the Russian Research Institute of Space Instrumentation using the company's money. In essence, what is a satellite? This is a device in space!
The cheap TNS-1 in operation turned out to be almost free of charge. He didn't need a Mission Control Center, huge transceiver antennas, telemetry analysis, and much more. It could be controlled using a laptop, sitting on a park bench. The experiment showed that with the help of mobile communications and the Internet, it is possible to control a space object. In addition, 10 new equipment assemblies have passed flight design tests. If it were not for the nanosatellite, they would have to be tested as part of the onboard equipment of one of the future spacecraft. And this is a waste of time and big risks.
TNS-1 was a major breakthrough. It could be about creating tactical space systems at the level of almost a battalion commander, like small tactical drones. An inexpensive device, assembled in the desired configuration within a few days and launched by a light rocket from a carrier aircraft, could show the commander the battlefield, provide communications and an automated control system for the tactical echelon. Such spacecraft could be of great help during the local conflict in South Ossetia and the North Caucasus.
Another important area is the elimination of the consequences of natural disasters and man-made disasters. And also their warning. Cheap nanosatellites with a validity period of several months could show the state of the ice situation in a specific region, keep records of forest fires, and track the water level during floods. For operational control, nanosatellites can be launched directly over the territory of natural disasters in order to monitor online changes in the situation. And it turned out that the RF Ministry of Emergency Situations received space images of Krymsk after the flood as charitable aid from the United States.
In the future, we should expect the introduction of nanosatellites into the combat systems of the world's leading armies, primarily the United States. Most likely not a single use, but the launch of small spacecraft in whole swarms, which will include satellites for different purposes - communications, relaying, sounding of the earth's surface in different wavelengths, electronic countermeasures, target designation, etc. This will significantly expand the possibilities of conducting contactless warfare.
If miniaturization turns out to be one of the main trends in the development of military spacecraft, the forecast for an increase in the market for military satellites will fail. On the contrary, it will decrease in monetary terms. However, aerospace corporations will try not to miss out on profits and slow down their small competitors. In Russia it succeeded. Manufacturers of heavy satellites have lobbied the RNII for space instrumentation to ban spacecraft. Only now the question of launching the TNS-2 nanosatellite, which was ready eight years ago, has been discussed again.
The demand for heavy energy-intensive spacecraft in near-earth orbits continues to decline. Moreover, the users' ground equipment is becoming more and more sensitive and economical.
Heavy satellites will mostly remain the prerogative of scientists. Space telescopes, high-resolution imaging equipment, automatic stations for planetary studies will continue to be manufactured and launched in the interests of all mankind.
National programs will focus on cheaper spacecraft suitable for mass production and operational use. The example of UAVs, which have sharply entered the combat systems of developed countries, clearly convinces of this. Literally a decade was enough for strike-reconnaissance UAVs to take their place in the US Air Force and its allies. There is no doubt that by 2020 the appearance of the orbital groupings will change just as radically. Swarms of pico and nanosatellites will appear.
Now we are talking about femto-satellites weighing up to 100 g. If computers are reduced to the size of wristwatches, then satellites of a similar dimension will soon appear.
