Theses of the speech at the round table meeting
"Fighting robots in the war of the future: implications for Russia"
in the editorial office of the weekly "Independent Military Review"
Moscow, February 11, 2016
The answer to the question, "What kind of combat robots does Russia need?" Is impossible without understanding what combat robots are for, to whom, when and in what quantity. In addition, it is necessary to agree on the terms: first of all, what to call a "combat robot". Today, the official wording is from the Military Encyclopedic Dictionary "a combat robot is a multifunctional technical device with anthropomorphic (human-like) behavior, partially or completely performing human functions when solving certain combat missions." The dictionary is posted on the official website of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Mobile robotic complex for reconnaissance and fire support "Metallist"
The dictionary classifies combat robots according to the degree of their dependence, or rather independence, from a person (operator).
Fighting robots of the 1st generation are software and remote control devices capable of functioning only in an organized environment.
Fighting robots of the 2nd generation are adaptive, having a kind of "sense organs" and capable of functioning in previously unknown conditions, that is, adapting to changes in the environment.
Fighting robots of the 3rd generation are intelligent, have a control system with elements of artificial intelligence (so far created only in the form of laboratory models).
The compilers of the dictionary (including the Military Scientific Committee of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) apparently relied on the opinion of specialists from the Main Directorate of Scientific Research and Technological Support of Advanced Technologies (Innovative Research) of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (GUNID MO RF), which determines the main directions of development in the field of creating robotic systems in the interests of the Armed Forces, and the Main Research and Testing Center for Robotics of the RF Ministry of Defense, which is the head research organization of the RF Ministry of Defense in the field of robotics. Probably, the position of the Foundation for Advanced Study (FPI), with which the mentioned organizations closely cooperate on robotization issues, has not been ignored either.
For comparison, Western experts also divide robots into three categories: human-in-the-loop, human-on-the-loop, and Human-out-of-the-loop. The first category includes unmanned vehicles capable of independently detecting targets and carrying out their selection, but the decision to destroy them is made only by a human operator. The second category includes systems that are able to independently detect and select targets, as well as make decisions to destroy them, but a human operator performing the role of an observer can intervene at any time and correct or block this decision. The third category includes robots capable of detecting, selecting and destroying targets on their own without human intervention.
Today, the most common combat robots of the first generation (controlled devices) and systems of the second generation (semi-autonomous devices) are rapidly improving. To switch to the use of third-generation combat robots (autonomous devices), scientists are developing a self-learning system with artificial intelligence, which will combine the capabilities of the most advanced technologies in the field of navigation, visual recognition of objects, artificial intelligence, weapons, independent power sources, camouflage, etc. combat systems will significantly outstrip humans in the speed of recognizing the environment (in any area) and in the speed and accuracy of response to changes in the environment.
Artificial neural networks have already independently learned to recognize human faces and body parts in images. According to experts' forecasts, fully autonomous combat systems may appear in 20-30 years or even earlier. At the same time, fears are expressed that autonomous combat robots, no matter how perfect artificial intelligence they have, will not be able, as a person, to analyze the behavior of the people in front of them and, therefore, will pose a threat to the non-belligerent population.
A number of experts believe that android robots will be created that can replace a soldier in any area of hostilities: on land, on water, under water or in an aerospace environment.
Nevertheless, the issue of terminology cannot be considered resolved, since not only Western experts do not use the term "combat robot", but also the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (Article 15) refers to the characteristic features of modern military conflicts as "massive use of weapons systems and military equipment, …, information and control systems, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and autonomous maritime vehicles, guided robotic weapons and military equipment."
Representatives of the RF Ministry of Defense themselves see the robotization of weapons, military and special equipment as a priority area for the development of the Armed Forces, which implies "the creation of unmanned vehicles in the form of robotic systems and military complexes for various applications."
Based on the achievements of science and the rate of introduction of new technologies in all areas of human life, in the foreseeable future, autonomous combat systems ("combat robots") can be created capable of solving most of the combat missions and autonomous systems for logistical and technical support of troops. But what will the war be like in 10-20 years? How to prioritize the development and deployment of combat systems of varying degrees of autonomy, taking into account the financial, economic, technological, resource and other capabilities of the state?
In 2014, the military scientific complex of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, together with the military authorities, developed a concept for the use of military robotic systems for the period up to 2030, and in December 2014 the Minister of Defense approved a comprehensive target program "Creation of advanced military robotics until 2025."
Speaking on February 10, 2016 at the conference "Robotization of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation" the Head of the Main Research and Testing Center of Robotics of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Colonel S. Popov, said that "the main goals of robotization of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are to achieve a new quality of means of armed tasks and reduction of losses of servicemen ". "At the same time, special attention is paid to the rational combination of human and technological capabilities."
Answering the question before the conference "What will you proceed from when selecting certain exhibits and including them in the list of promising samples?" he said the following: “From the practical need to equip the Armed Forces with robotic systems for military purposes, which, in turn, is determined by the predictable nature of future wars and armed conflicts. Why, for example, risk the life and health of servicemen when robots can perform their combat missions? Why entrust the personnel with complex, time-consuming and demanding work that robotics can handle? By using military robots, we, most importantly, will be able to reduce combat losses, minimize harm to the life and health of military personnel in the course of professional activities, and at the same time ensure the required efficiency in performing tasks as intended."
This statement is consistent with the provision of the 2015 National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation that "the improvement of the forms and methods of using the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies provides for the timely consideration of trends in the nature of modern wars and armed conflicts, …" (Article 38) … However, the question arises as to how the planned (or rather, already begun) robotization of the Armed Forces correlates with Article 41 of the same Strategy: "Ensuring the country's defense is carried out on the basis of the principles of rational sufficiency and efficiency …"
A simple replacement by a robot of a person in battle is not just humane, it is advisable if indeed "the required efficiency of performing tasks as intended is ensured." But for this, you first need to determine what is meant by the effectiveness of tasks and to what extent this approach corresponds to the financial and economic capabilities of the country. It seems that the tasks of robotization of the RF Armed Forces should be ranked in accordance with the priorities of the general tasks of the state's military organization to ensure military security in peacetime and the tasks of the relevant power ministries and departments in wartime.
From the documents in the public domain, this is not traced, but the desire to comply with the provisions of Article 115 of the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation is obvious, which so far includes only one military "indicator necessary to assess the state of national security," namely, "the share of modern weapons, military and special equipment in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and bodies ".
The samples of robotics presented to the public can in no way be attributed to "combat robots" capable of increasing the efficiency of solving the main tasks of the armed forces - deterring and repelling possible aggression.
Although the list of military dangers and military threats set forth in the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (Articles 12, 13, 14), the main tasks of the Russian Federation in containing and preventing conflicts (Article 21) and the main tasks of the Armed Forces in peacetime (Article 32) allows you to prioritize the robotization of the Armed Forces and other troops.
"The displacement of military dangers and military threats into the information space and the internal sphere of the Russian Federation" requires, first of all, to accelerate the development of devices and systems for conducting offensive and defensive actions in cyberspace. Cyberspace is an area where artificial intelligence is already ahead of human capabilities. Moreover, a number of machines and complexes can already operate autonomously. Whether cyberspace can be considered a combat environment and, therefore, can computer robots be called "combat robots" is still an open question.
One of the tools "to counter the attempts of individual states (groups of states) to achieve military superiority by deploying strategic missile defense systems, placing weapons in outer space, deploying strategic non-nuclear precision weapons systems" could be the development of combat robots - autonomous spacecraft capable of disrupting the operation (disable) space reconnaissance, control and navigation systems of a potential enemy. At the same time, this would contribute to ensuring the aerospace defense of the Russian Federation and would be an additional incentive for Russia's main opponents to conclude an international treaty on the prevention of the deployment of any types of weapons in outer space.
A huge territory, extreme physical-geographical and weather-climatic conditions of some regions of the country, long state borders, demographic restrictions and other factors require the development and creation of remotely controlled and semi-autonomous systems of combat systems capable of solving the tasks of protecting and defending borders on land, at sea, under water and in aerospace. This would be a significant contribution to ensuring the national interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic.
Tasks such as countering terrorism; protection and defense of important state and military facilities, communications facilities; ensuring public safety; participation in the elimination of emergencies is already partially solved with the help of robotic complexes for various purposes.
Creation of robotic combat systems for conducting combat operations against the enemy, both on a "traditional battlefield" with the presence of a contact line of the parties (even if it is rapidly changing), and in an urbanized military-civilian environment with a chaotically changing situation, where the usual combat formations of troops are absent, should also be among the priorities. At the same time, it is useful to take into account the experience of other countries involved in the robotization of military affairs.
According to foreign media reports, about 40 countries, incl. The USA, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, Israel, South Korea are developing robots capable of fighting without human participation. It is believed that the market for such weapons could reach $ 20 billion. From 2005 to 2012, Israel sold unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) worth $ 4.6 billion. In total, specialists from more than 80 countries are engaged in the development of military robots.
Today, 30 states are developing and producing up to 150 types of UAVs, of which 80 have been adopted by 55 armies of the world. The leaders in this area are the USA, Israel and China. It should be noted that UAVs do not belong to classical robots, since they do not reproduce human activity, although they are considered robotic systems. According to forecasts, in 2015-2025. the share of the United States in world expenditures on UAVs will be: for R&D - 62%, for purchases - 55%.
The Military Balance 2016 yearbook of the London Institute for Strategic Studies gives the following figures for the number of heavy UAVs in the leading countries of the world: USA 540, UK - 10, France - 9, China and India - 4 each, Russia - “several units”.
During the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the United States had only a few dozen UAVs and not a single ground robot. In 2009, they already had 5,300 UAVs, and in 2013 more than 7,000. The massive use of improvised explosive devices by the rebels in Iraq caused a sharp acceleration in the development of ground-based robots by the Americans. In 2009, the US Armed Forces already had more than 12 thousand robotic ground devices.
At the end of 2010, the US Department of Defense announced the "Plan for the Development and Integration of Autonomous Systems for 2011-2036". According to this document, the number of air, ground and submarine autonomous systems will be significantly increased, and the developers are tasked with first endowing these devices with "supervised independence" (that is, their actions are controlled by a person), and ultimately - with "complete independence." At the same time, US Air Force specialists believe that promising artificial intelligence during the battle will be able to independently make decisions that do not violate the law.
However, the robotization of the armed forces has a number of serious limitations that even the richest and most developed countries have to reckon with.
In 2009. The United States has suspended the planned implementation of the Future Combat Systems program, which began in 2003.due to financial constraints and technological problems. It was planned to create a system for the US Army (ground forces), including UAVs, ground unmanned vehicles, autonomous battlefield sensors, as well as armored vehicles with crews and a control subsystem. This system was supposed to ensure the implementation of the concept of network-centric control and distribution of information in real time, the final recipient of which was to be a soldier on the battlefield.
From May 2003 to December 2006 the cost of the procurement program increased from $ 91.4 billion to $ 160.9 billion. During the same period, only 2 technologies out of 44 planned were realized. The total cost of the program in 2006 was estimated at $ 203.3-233.9 billion, then it increased to almost $ 340 billion, of which $ 125 billion was planned to be spent on R&D.
Ultimately, after spending more than $ 18 billion, the program was stopped, although according to plans, by 2015, a third of the army's combat power was to be made up of robots, or rather robotic systems.
Nevertheless, the process of robotizing the US military continues. To date, about 20 remotely controlled ground vehicles have been developed for the army. The Air Force and Navy are working on roughly the same number of air, surface and submarine systems. In July 2014, a Marine unit tested a robotic mule capable of transporting 200 kg of cargo (weapons, ammunition, food) over rough terrain in Hawaii. True, the testers had to be delivered to the place of the experiment on two flights: the robot did not fit into the Osprey together with the Marine squad.
By 2020, the United States plans to develop a robot that will accompany a serviceman, while the control will be voice and gesture. The idea of joint manning of infantry and special units with people and robots is being discussed. Another idea is to combine proven and new technologies. For example, use transport aircraft and ships as "mother platforms" for groups of air (C-17 and 50 UAVs) and marine drones, which will change the tactics of their use and cripple their capabilities.
That is, while the Americans prefer mixed systems: "man plus robot" or a robot controlled by a man. Robots are assigned to perform tasks that they perform more efficiently than humans, or those where the risk of human life exceeds acceptable limits. The aim is also to reduce the cost of weapons and military equipment. The argument is the cost of the developed samples: a fighter - $ 180 million, a bomber - $ 550 million, a destroyer - $ 3 billion.
In 2015, Chinese developers demonstrated a complex of combat robots designed to combat terrorists. It includes a reconnaissance robot that is able to find toxic and explosive substances. The second robot specializes in ammunition disposal. For the direct destruction of the terrorists, a third robot-fighter will be involved. It is equipped with small arms and a grenade launcher. The cost of a set of three cars is 235 thousand dollars.
The world experience of using robots shows that the robotization of industry is many times ahead of other areas of their use, including the military. That is, the development of robotics in civilian industries fuels its development for military purposes.
Japan is the world leader in civilian robotics. In terms of the total number of industrial robots (about 350 thousand units), Japan is significantly ahead of Germany and the United States following it. It is also the leader in the number of industrial robots per 10,000 people employed in the automotive industry, which accounts for over 40% of the world's total robot sales. In 2012, this indicator among the leaders was: Japan - 1562 units; France - 1137; Germany - 1133; USA - 1,091. China had 213 robots per 10,000 employed in the auto industry.
However, in terms of the number of industrial robots per 10,000 people employed in all industries, South Korea was in the lead with 396 units; further Japan - 332 and Germany - 273. The average world density of industrial robots by the end of 2012 was 58 units. At the same time, in Europe this figure was 80, in America - 68, in Asia - 47 units. Russia had 2 industrial robots per 10,000 employees. In 2012, 22,411 industrial robots were sold in the United States and 307 in Russia.
Apparently, taking into account these realities, the robotization of the Armed Forces, according to the Head of the Main Research and Testing Center for Robotics of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, has become "not only a new strategic line for improving weapons, military and special equipment, but also a key component of the development of industries." It is difficult to argue with this, considering that in 2012 the dependence of the Russian military-industrial complex enterprises on imported equipment in some areas reached 85%. In recent years, emergency measures have been taken to reduce the share of imported components to 10-15%.
In addition to financial problems and technical problems related to the electronic component base, power supplies, sensors, optics, navigation, protection of control channels, the development of artificial intelligence, etc., the robotization of the Armed Forces obliges to solve problems in the field of education, public consciousness and morality, and the psychology of a warrior. …
To design and create combat robots, trained people are needed: designers, mathematicians, engineers, technologists, assemblers, etc. But not only they should be prepared by the modern education system of Russia, but also those who will use and maintain them. We need those who are able to coordinate the robotization of military affairs and the evolution of war in strategies, plans, programs.
How to treat the development of cyborg fighting robots? Apparently, international and national legislation should determine the limits of the introduction of artificial intelligence in order to prevent the rebellion of machines against humans and the destruction of humanity.
The formation of a new psychology of war and warrior will be required. The state of danger is changing, not a man, but a machine goes to war. Whom to reward: a deceased robot or an "office soldier" sitting behind a monitor far from the battlefield, or even on another continent.
Of course, the robotization of military affairs is a natural process. In Russia, where the robotization of the Armed Forces is ahead of civilian industries, it can help ensure the country's national security. The main thing here is that it should contribute to the acceleration of the general development of Russia.
