The widely announced offensive of government forces on Palmyra can hardly be called an offensive. The maximum advance per day does not exceed hundreds of meters - and so it has been for almost a month. The Syrian army makes extensive use of helicopter support, as well as barrel artillery, but it fails to gain a foothold in the bare desert without any natural cover.
The suggested operation based on the landing behind ISIS lines - at several key points on the way to Palmyra - turned out to be impossible due to the banal lack of units prepared for this kind of action. In addition, an increasing number of troops and militias are diverted to encircle numerous enclaves of jihadists after their front actually collapsed in the provinces of Hama and Homs.
The history of the city of Madaya has become widely known, which the Syrian opposition presents as a humanitarian tragedy. In particular, one of the opposition leaders Riyadh (Riyaz) Hijab, who came to Paris for talks with French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, especially emphasized the situation in this 40-thousandth city located near the Syrian-Lebanese border. The city has been under siege by government forces for almost six months, but local jihadist and so-called moderate opposition groups refuse to surrender.
Riyadh Farid Hijab is the highest-ranking (in the past) “refugee” from Bashar al-Assad’s entourage, appointed to identify with himself these very still not really identified “moderate forces”. In 2011, he even headed the anti-government suppression committee and came under personal sanctions from the US Treasury Department. In the summer of 2012, he managed to work as a prime minister of Syria for a month, but apparently failed, he was dismissed, after which he fled with his family to Jordan, where from a representative of Bashar al-Assad's inner circle he turned into the largest puppet figure among the “moderates”.
In Paris, Riyadh Hijab brought down on Fabius all the usual humanitarian pathos in such cases about the need for urgent assistance to the civilian population, which is starving the bloody regime. The humanitarian problem in Madai is indeed obvious, but it could have been solved a long time ago if the local Islamist leaders had agreed to the "displacement" that had already become a routine matter. They, however, resisted, providing the liberal world community with an excellent reason to re-accuse Assad of unconventional methods of warfare. In parallel, Riyadh Hijab actually forced the head of the French Foreign Ministry to accuse Russia of waging a war against civilians. As a result, Fabius demanded that the SAR government end the siege of Madai and "other cities", which does not really fit with the idea of military cooperation in the fight against terrorism.
Who is friends with whom and is at war in Syria and Iraq
The fact is that in the central part of Syria, the organized resistance of various groups of jihadists has been practically suppressed, their continuous front behind the lines of government forces has been destroyed, and only individual settlements remain, which have turned into jihadist enclaves. The former ISIS fortified area in the eastern suburbs of Damascus is in about the same condition. But if there are periodically carried out cleansing and "resettlement", a stalemate has been created in a number of settlements like Madai. The troops are not going to storm the city because of the possibility of large losses, including among civilians, and lifting the siege means giving the jihadists a new advantage. The prolongation of the siege does lead to humanitarian problems, which are trying to be solved with the help of humanitarian convoys. But the opposition, especially the "moderate", uses these cases to wage a propaganda war. Among Ukrainian-oriented bloggers, the term "Madai Holodomor" has already flashed.
At the same time, government forces with the 66th Brigade of the 11th Panzer Division, supported by Russian aviation, launched a major offensive against the city of Taxis in the province of Hama. Earlier in the same region, about 30 settlements were liberated on the way to Taxis, which is considered the key to the Ar-Rastan valley and the Al-Asi river. While battles are going on along the northern perimeter of Taxis.
At the same time, the 4th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard, supported by the 137th Artillery Brigade of the 17th Reserve Division, began the offensive. These forces are moving south of Deir ez-Zor with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces. By January 11, they managed to take over the At-Tayyem oil fields, which were holding a large ISIS force. According to a number of data, government forces finally occupied At-Tayyem only after a four-hour clash. ISIS set up by-pass routes around the settlement to supply extremist forces in the area of the Deir ez-Zor military airfield, a military base and an old cemetery. The al-Nishan oil field and several blocks in the immediate vicinity of the city still remain in the hands of the Islamists. The 104th Airborne Brigade, with the support of Shiite units, attempted to move the front line away from the airport, but only advanced 200 meters, and clashes from the eastern perimeter of the air base shifted to the area of the former agricultural college, which ISIS uses as a local headquarters.
In the province of Latakia, government troops, with a tenacity worthy of better use, again set out to storm the city of Salma, from which there is already little left - the fortified positions of the jihadists in the rocks around for a long time were one of the main targets for the Russian Aerospace Forces. Nevertheless, it would be naive to expect Salma's occupation in one or two days, even with the active support of Russian aviation.
In general, in the mountainous zone in the area bordering Turkey, the offensive is developing at its own pace. Government forces are gradually squeezing key points and small cities from the jihadists. At the same time, various groups in this zone receive a stable supply from Turkey, and therefore periodically make attempts to counter-offensives. This is also facilitated by a sharp deterioration in the weather in the region: in the mountainous and foothill zones, prolonged rains began, which interferes with the planned actions of aviation on reconnaissance of targets and reduces its effectiveness. Taking advantage of the situation, parts of the jihadists attacked the city of Burj al-Kasab after the New Year, but were stopped by government forces.
But in southern Syria, in the province of Deraa, the fighting took on an extremely fierce character, which, it seems, few expected. Government forces launched an offensive on the large city of Sheikh Maskin, which lies on the strategic Damas-Deraa highway. Very quickly, the fighting took on the character of a massacre, and units of the 82nd Army Brigade, relying on their own base on the outskirts of the city, several times broke through to the center, but did not have time to gain a foothold in new positions. Russian aviation also joined the operation, but the jihadists were able to bring in reinforcements and themselves began to storm the base of the 82nd brigade.
At the same time, Jabhat al-Nusra suffers colossal losses in Sheikh Maskin, along the entire highway, at Dayil and in Deraa itself, including the leadership. The jihadists do not want to give up strategic points in the Deraa province, as a result, the fighting turned into a large-scale battle with a predictable result, but with heavy losses for the Syrian army, which does not suit the command of the government forces.
The offensive in the Aleppo area is also progressing at its intended pace. The situation is more complicated in the residential areas controlled by Jabhat al-Nusra, Haraket al-Sham and other Takfiri groups. There are battles in almost every one of them. The clearing of the city threatens to be delayed, especially if you remember about the peculiar relief, the configuration of the front line and the still remaining supply from Turkey.
On the remaining sectors of the fronts, battles after the New Year were of a local nature. For example, in the vicinity of Damascus, the advancement of government forces was reduced to one-time skirmishes, the destruction of single pick-ups, "techies" and makeshift rocket launchers. But on the whole, the strategic preponderance of government forces that has emerged by the end of 2015 is making itself felt. Another thing is that now the army is encountering especially fierce resistance from both ISIS and other jihadist forces. The reason for this is the advance of the army and allies to the key points of resistance of the opposition and thereby threatening the very existence of several large centers of anti-government forces. In particular, the defeat in the province of Deraa will eliminate the supply system for jihadists from Jordan. And, say, the slow elimination of the enclave east of Damascus will finally allow the redirection of large forces towards Palmyra. And from her and to Raqqa a stone's throw.
