It is no secret that the volume of the international arms and military equipment market is growing every year. Some of this growth is due to the fall in the dollar, the currency in which all valuations are made, according to staff at the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Nevertheless, the economic situation allows, and the military-political events in the world force some states to pay more attention to defense problems. Moreover, in the light of the latest coups d'etat in the Middle East region, the arms market may change slightly.
First of all, it is worth noting the new government in Libya. Previously, this country purchased the bulk of weapons and military equipment from the USSR and Russia. Other suppliers are France, Italy, the former Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. During last year's civil war, mostly after NATO forces entered the hostilities, the Libyan army lost a lot of aircraft and armored equipment. The new Libyan government, despite a number of dubious features, is gradually beginning to make attempts to restore, and even increase the combat potential of its army. In the near future, we should expect the announcement of tenders for the supply of this or that weapon. At the same time, one cannot fail to note one characteristic feature of the new Libya: its ambiguous economic state. Therefore, the very fact of future purchases can already be questioned. However, if there are any, then there are certain grounds for assumptions about the supplier countries. Most likely, given the foreign "aid" during the war, the new Libyan authorities will prefer Western weapons. If, of course, the budget of the new country is enough for such purchases.
In other Arab countries - Tunisia, Egypt, etc. - Last year's "Arab Spring" passed with much less losses in military equipment. Therefore, the countries that have renewed their power are not so urgently in need of the purchase of new weapons. At the same time, one should not forget that the renewal of the material part of the armed forces should proceed constantly and systematically. In other words, in the near future these countries (naturally, with the correct leadership of the new governments) will begin competitions and order weapons. And again we can draw rough conclusions about the favorites of these tenders. Take, for example, the Egyptian Air Force: at the air bases of this country there are equipment of Soviet, American and French production. Moreover, the aircraft and helicopters made in the USA and France are the newest. It is unlikely that the new government will "inflate" the range of equipment used. Moreover, the existing "Mirages" and F-16 of various modifications with a number of reservations suit the Egyptians.
In general, a number of facts regarding the change of government in Arab countries suggest that some foreign countries will increase their share in the global arms and military equipment market. First of all, these are the United States, Great Britain and France. Obviously, the costs of the same air operation in Libya will pay off with interest. Nevertheless, any changes in the volume of military exports of European countries will not have a serious impact on the overall rating of exporters. The largest European manufacturers and suppliers of weapons and military equipment are Germany, France and Great Britain. According to the results of 2011, they were in third to fifth place in the overall ranking. At the same time, these European countries have relatively small market shares: Germany took about 9% of global supplies, France - 8%, and Great Britain limited itself to four percent. As you can see, Germany and France this year may swap places in the general list. However, they will not rise above the third place yet. First of all, for the reason that the first two places in arms sales are firmly occupied by the United States and Russia with 30% and 24%, respectively. Thus, in order to get closer to the second place, Germany must take away the market shares of both France and Great Britain combined. It is simply impossible to do this in a year, as well as in the short term.
As for the buying countries, India has been leading in their ranking for several years. As of last 2011, it bought weapons and military equipment for amounts equivalent to a tenth of the entire world market. New Delhi is going to continue this "tradition" this year and next. For 2012-13 fiscal years, the country's budget provides for the allocation of about 1.95 trillion rupees for arms purchases. This amount is approximately equal to $ 40 billion. Naturally, such plans of India attract the attention of exporting countries. It is also worth noting that in addition to the amount allocated for 2012-13, New Delhi is constantly increasing funding for its army. Thus, in comparison with the previous financial period, 17% more were allocated for the purchase of weapons and equipment. Moreover, from 2007 to 2011, India bought weapons for more than $ 12.6 billion, and now it is almost double the amount for just one year. We can only guess what volumes of contracts India will sign in 2015.
I am glad that out of the above 12.6 billion, 10.6 billion went to Russia. Most likely, the current trend will continue in the future. At the same time, foreign countries are already showing their interest in Indian contracts. A prime example of this is the recent tender for the supply of a new fighter jet, which ended with the victory of the French Dassault Rafale aircraft. This fighter bypassed the European Eurofighter Typhoon, the American F-16 and F / A-18E / F, the Swedish Gripen and the Russian MiG-35. At one time, this competition almost caused a local scandal. The exit of the domestic fighter from the competition even before the final stage of the latter caused a lot of questions and no less criticism. A little later, the Russian Mi-28N helicopter lost the tender to the American AH-64 Apache. However, in addition to these two models of aviation technology, Russia and India have a number of other "points of contact" in the military-technical field. For example, the Indian military is now choosing the most suitable light and heavy helicopters. From Russia, Ka-226T and Mi-26 participate in these competitions, respectively. If it is possible to argue with respect to the Kamov aircraft, the heavy helicopter of the Mi brand is a clear favorite in its competition - in terms of carrying capacity, the Mi-26 has no analogues in the world and the very fact of its participation in the competition transparently hints at the results.
It should be noted that an approximate list of arms suppliers for India has long been formed. New countries appear in it quite rarely. At the same time, they have some chance to break through and receive orders. First of all, this applies to countries that have experience in the area of missile defense. The fact is that a potential adversary of India - Pakistan - in recent years has been actively developing ballistic missiles capable of delivering a warhead to any point in its region. In connection with such unfriendly activity, the Indians have to take an interest in anti-missile systems. Currently, India is armed with anti-missile systems PAD and AAD. Due to the fact that these are the first Indian developments in the field of missile defense, the complexes have insufficient defeat reliability. Perhaps, in order to strengthen its strategic defense, New Delhi will soon turn to foreign countries for help. In addition, there is a small likelihood of simply ordering missile defense systems abroad.
Opportunities to expand the range of supplied products are certainly good. However, one should not allow the loss of existing and possible contracts. First of all, because of the unstable situation with other states that buy weapons from Russia. Over the past couple of years, our country has already lost enough money due to problems with supplies to Libya or Iran. Moreover, in both cases, the reasons for the disruption of supplies are explicitly or implicitly related to Russia's direct competitors in the world arms market. It is obvious that it is these competitors that can take the vacated "places" of suppliers. That is why India, which is consistently ordering new equipment and increasing funding for purchases, is such a good partner that should not be lost. In principle, this thesis applies to all countries with which military-technical cooperation is conducted. Simply because of the volume of orders from small countries, they fade into the background. In addition, not all of the countries that buy most of the weapons cooperate with Russia. So, over the past five years, the five leaders in terms of orders are as follows: India, South Korea, Pakistan, China, Singapore. Of these five countries, only India and China have established ties with Russia. Accordingly, our country needs to take care of its relations with them.
One way or another, the world arms market lives and develops. Contracts are constantly being concluded and negotiations are underway. From time to time, military and political events occur that affect the share of supplies of individual countries and the creation of new military-technical ties. However, as practice shows, most often such things do not have a significant impact on the market. Arms deliveries to purchasing countries are already generally divided between the producing states and it is rather difficult to break the existing ties. However, the Americans' planned achievement of the threshold of $ 60 billion per year is quite realistic. The increase in the Russian market share looks just as real. True, both tasks may not be as simple as they seem.
