The armed forces of India and Pakistan again clashed in the disputed regions, and the current events may turn into a stage of a full-scale armed conflict. In anticipation of such a development of events, it is worth considering and evaluating the armed forces of the two countries and drawing conclusions about their potential. Obviously, such a review is unlikely to give a 100% guarantee, but it will allow us to present the balance of forces and predict the most likely scenario for the development of an open conflict, as well as understand the chances of the parties to win.
General indicators
According to the Global Firepower rating, the latest version of which was released last fall, India and Pakistan differ significantly in their military capabilities. In the latest ranking, the Indian army ranks fourth with a score of 0, 1417, behind only the United States, Russia and China. Pakistan received a score of 0, 3689, which did not allow it to rise above 17th place.
Test launch of the Indian MRBM Agni III. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of India / indianarmy.nic.in
Recall that the GFP rating takes into account fifty different indicators of a military and economic nature and, using a complex formula, deduces an estimate from them. The smaller the resulting number, the better developed the army and related economic sectors. As we can see, the gap between India and Pakistan - both in terms of assessment and in terms of occupation - is significant, and in itself allows us to draw understandable conclusions.
First of all, India's advantage is determined by superiority in human resources. With a population of about 1282 million people, 489.6 million are suitable for service. The army now serves 1, 362 million people and 2, 845 million are in the reserve. The population of Pakistan is slightly less than 205 million people, of which 73.5 million can serve. 637 thousand serve in the army, 282 thousand in the reserve. India's advantages are clear.
Pakistani MRBM Shaheen-2. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of Pakistan / pakistanarmy.gov.pk
India has a stronger economy, logistics and industry, according to the GFP. Labor reserves amount to almost 522 million people; there is a developed network of highways and railways, as well as large ports and a developed merchant fleet. The military budget reaches $ 47 billion. Pakistan is inferior in all respects: labor reserves do not exceed 64 million, and the defense budget is only $ 7 billion. The total length of roads is shorter, but this is due to the size of the countries.
Nuclear forces
The two conflicting countries have nuclear forces of limited potential. According to known data, India and Pakistan have so far been able to create only low-power nuclear charges - no more than 50-60 kt. According to various estimates, India has no more than 100-120 warheads for use with different delivery vehicles. Pakistan's arsenals are slightly larger - up to 150-160 units. Pakistani nuclear forces are also distinguished by their application doctrine. Islamabad reserves the right to first strike in the event of aggressive actions by third countries. New Delhi, in turn, promises only to respond to other people's blows.
Indian tanks T-90S. Photo by the Ministry of Defense of India / indianarmy.nic.in
So far, India has managed to build a kind of nuclear triad with limited capabilities. The ground component has ballistic missiles of various classes, from operational tactical to medium-range systems, both in stationary and mobile equipment. Deployed at least 300 launchers for six types of missiles; at the same time, missiles on duty can carry not only a special, but also a conventional warhead. The fleet has only one ballistic missile submarine, the INS Arihant (SSBN 80). In the future, new carriers of SLBMs should appear. The air component of the triad is based on front-line aircraft capable of carrying tactical nuclear bombs.
Pakistan also has 150-160 deployed ballistic missiles of a number of types. In terms of launch ranges, Pakistani missiles are close to Indian ones. Pakistanis can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. The Pakistani Air Force can provide front-line aircraft for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the form of bombs or guided missiles. The offshore component is still missing, although over the past decades, Pakistani industry has been trying to resolve this issue.
Ground troops
The Indian army has about 1.2 million people. Management is carried out by the main headquarters and six regional commands. They are subordinate to 15 army corps, as well as separate infantry, tank and artillery divisions and an airborne brigade. The main strike means of the army are 3 armored divisions and 8 separate tank brigades. There are 6 motorized infantry divisions and 2 brigades, as well as 16 light infantry divisions and 7 similar brigades.
MBT "Al-Zarrar" of the Pakistani army. Photo Wikimedia Commons
The combat units have more than 3 thousand tanks. The basis of the armored forces is made up of vehicles of the T-72M1 type (over 1900 units) and T-90S (over 1100 units). There are 2,500 infantry fighting vehicles of a number of types in operation, more than 330 armored personnel carriers and various auxiliary equipment. The total number of artillery exceeds 9600 units. Almost 3 thousand of them are towed systems. Self-propelled artillery - about 200 vehicles of several types. There are a similar number of jet systems. The ground forces have a developed air defense system, which includes both outdated barrel and modern missile systems: about 2,400 anti-aircraft guns and about 800 air defense systems.
The Pakistani army of 560 thousand people includes 9 corps, as well as air defense and strategic command. The armored units are divided into 2 divisions and 7 separate brigades. Motorized infantry - in 2 divisions and 1 separate brigade. There are auxiliary units, army aviation and air defense.
Demonstration performances of Indian artillerymen. Photo Wikimedia Commons
There are 2,500 tanks of various types in operation, both modern and obsolete. The most widespread is the Chinese-made Type 59 medium tank. The newest vehicles are 350 Al-Khalid tanks of joint development. The main armored personnel carrier - M113 in the amount of 3280 units. In terms of the total number of artillery systems, Pakistan is inferior to India - less than 4500 units. At the same time, it is the leader in the number of self-propelled guns - 375 pieces. The number of MLRS is less than 100 units. The bulk of the artillery are towed systems and mortars of all main calibers.
Army aviation has 110 training and transport aircraft. There are more than 40 attack helicopters AH-1F / S and Mi-35M. Transport tasks are assigned to a fleet of 200 vehicles of different types. Remain in service about 2 thousand anti-aircraft guns. Several dozen foreign air defense systems are also used. Of particular importance are MANPADS in the amount of 2200-2300 units.
Naval forces
The Indian Navy operates 17 submarines with torpedo and missile weapons received from third countries. The surface fleet includes one aircraft carrier with MiG-29K aircraft and Ka-28 and Ka-31 helicopters, 14 destroyers of several projects with anti-ship missiles, as well as 13 frigates with missile and artillery weapons. Coastal protection is assigned to 108 ships and boats, from corvettes to patrol boats. The amphibious fleet has about 20 pennants. The Navy has its own transport vessels for various purposes.
An improvised Pakistani air defense system based on the M113 armored personnel carrier and RBS-70 MANPADS. Photo Wikimedia Commons
The Marine Corps consists of one brigade and one special forces squad. The total number of this type of troops is 1, 2 thousand people with the possibility of strengthening by 1 thousand.
The Indian Navy has 69 combat aircraft of a number of types. The basis of these forces is MiG-29K fighters (2 squadrons, 45 units). There are 13 anti-submarine aircraft Il-38SD and P-8I; Together with them, 47 helicopters of a similar purpose of Russian and American production solve the tasks. Naval aviation has its own fleet of training and transport aircraft.
Pakistan has eight foreign-built diesel-electric submarines with torpedo and missile weapons. The main forces of the fleet include 10 frigates of obsolete foreign types and 17 combat units for work near the coast. Landing forces - 8 boats. The latter are able to provide the work of the Marine Corps, which includes several units with a total strength of 3, 2 thousand people.
Fighter Su-30MKI of the Indian Air Force. Photo by US Air Force
The main aircraft of Pakistani naval aviation is the anti-submarine P-3 Orion. 12 helicopters are performing the same tasks. There is a small (10-12 units) fleet of transport aircraft and helicopters.
Air Force
The Indian Air Force is controlled by a main headquarters and five regional commands. Two more commands are responsible for personnel training and supply. They control 35 squadrons with combat aircraft and helicopters, as well as several dozen auxiliary units. There are 850 aircraft in total. Average flight hours - 180 hours per year.
The Indian Air Force has various types of aircraft, including obsolete ones. At the same time, the most massive representative of front-line aviation is the modern Su-30MKI (over 250). Their work should be supported by 4 AWACS aircraft and 6 Il-76 tankers. The transport units use 240 aircraft. The Air Force's helicopter fleet includes 19 Mi-24/35 attack vehicles and about 400 transport vehicles. UAVs are used in limited quantities.
Aircraft Mirage III Pakistan. Photo by US Air Force
The Pakistani Air Force is operated by three regional commands. There are 15 "combat" squadrons and more than 20 auxiliary ones. The total number of aircraft is 425 units. About 380 - fighters and fighter-bombers of various types. Pakistan purchased combat aircraft from the United States, France and China. The most widespread type is still the French Mirage III (about 70). The Air Force has reconnaissance aircraft, AWACS, tankers, transports and training vehicles. There are no attack helicopters in the Air Force; there are less than 20 multipurpose. The development of unmanned systems is underway.
Some results
Even a cursory study of the armed forces of India and Pakistan, based on the available aggregate numbers, gives an idea of their condition, strength and potential in the context of a possible conflict. It is easy to see that in terms of demographic, economic and partly military indicators, Pakistan is losing to its neighbor. In the field of the armed forces, there is also a serious lag in quality: a fair amount of Pakistani weapons and equipment cannot be called modern.
Indian paratroopers. Photo Wikimedia Commons
Thus, in a hypothetical war, the advantage remains with the armed forces of India. They are larger in number, better armed, and can count on better supplies. "On paper" the war may end with a victory for India, but for Pakistan it will result in heavy losses. Defeat in a war, in turn, can lead to very unpleasant political consequences.
However, the hypothetical conflict will not be painless for the Indian side. Pakistan is quite capable of inflicting significant damage on the enemy or even, given certain paths of development of the situation, of reducing the war to peace negotiations with the receipt of certain benefits. However, he cannot count on victory, if only because of factors of a numerical nature.
American frigates during the transfer to the Pakistani Navy, 1986. Photo US Department of Defense / dodmedia.osd.mil
The presence of nuclear weapons in the two countries may affect the situation, but such an influence will not necessarily be decisive. Both armies have nuclear warheads and their delivery vehicles, with Pakistan leading the way and India having more delivery vehicles. However, Pakistan has a specific application doctrine that allows it to strike first, while India pledges to use nuclear weapons only in response. This fact can influence the situation and serve as a deterrent.
An exchange of nuclear missile or bomb strikes can lead to a sharp increase in the loss of personnel and equipment, but is unlikely to have an impact on the overall course of the conflict. Nuclear weapons will not allow Pakistan to compensate for the gap in conventional weapons - all the more so in the absence of decisive advantages in special weapons.
Russian-Indian BrahMos coastal missile systems. Photo Wikimedia Commons
Considering the military potential of countries, one should keep in mind the issues of strategy and organization, as well as the human factor. Competent planning and command and control of troops can seriously affect the outcome of battles. Rash actions, in turn, should have different consequences and lead to increased losses. Unfortunately, open data does not yet allow a full assessment of the literacy of the Indian and Pakistani leadership.
It is obvious that New Delhi and Islamabad are well aware of all the possible consequences of a full-scale conflict, and they do not suit either side. The acquired benefits are unlikely to be able to recoup all the losses of a military, economic and political nature. Therefore, one should not expect that full-scale armed clashes will begin on the Indian-Pakistani border. However, this does not exclude the continuation of minor skirmishes and even relatively large battles of the type of the latter.
