Poland was considered by the Soviet military as one of the main threats to the USSR before World War II, according to unique declassified archival materials published by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
The Ministry of Defense on its website has opened a new multimedia portal "Fragile Peace on the Threshold of War", which is dedicated to the situation on the eve and the initial period of World War II. Among the documents released to the public is the memo of the Chief of the General Staff of the Red Army Boris Shaposhnikov to the People's Commissar of Defense of the USSR Kliment Voroshilov dated March 24, 1938. The document notes the threat of the possibility of war on the Western Front against Germany and Poland, as well as Italy, with the possible annexation of the limitrophes (Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Romania). In the East, there was a threat from Japan.
Shaposhnikov's report
Chief of the General Staff of the Red Army Shaposhnikov noted that the emerging political situation in Europe and the Far East "as the most probable opponents of the USSR is putting forward a fascist bloc - Germany, Italy, supported by Japan and Poland." These countries set their political goal to bring relations with the Soviet Union to an armed conflict.
However, at this time, Germany and Italy have not yet secured a quiet rear in Europe, and Japan is bound by the war in China. “Poland is in the orbit of the fascist bloc, trying to preserve the apparent independence of its foreign policy,” writes Shaposhnikov. The vacillating position of Britain and France allows the fascist bloc to come to an agreement with the Western democracies in the event of a war with the USSR and direct most of its forces against the Union. The same policy of England and France determines the position of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, as well as Turkey and Bulgaria. It is possible that these states will remain neutral, waiting for the result of the first battles, which does not exclude the possibility of their direct participation in the war on the side of the fascist bloc. Lithuania will be occupied by the Germans and Poles in the very first days of the war. Turkey and Bulgaria, even while maintaining neutrality, will allow the fleets of Germany and Italy to operate in the Black Sea. Turkey may oppose the USSR in the Caucasus.
In the Far East, Japan, on the one hand, is weakened by the use of human and material resources in the war with China and the use of part of the divisions to control the occupied territories. On the other hand, the Empire of Japan has a mobilized army, which it calmly, without hindrance, transferred to the mainland. At the same time, the Japanese continue to heavily arm themselves. Therefore, in the event of a war in Europe (an attack by a fascist bloc on the USSR), Japan may attack the USSR, since this will be the most favorable moment for Tokyo. In the future, there will be no such favorable situation in the Far East.
Thus, the chief of the USSR General Staff Shaposhnikov made a completely correct alignment of the future world war. The Soviet Union had to prepare for a war on two fronts - in Europe and in the Far East. In Europe, the main threat came from Germany and Poland, partly from Italy and the limitrophe states, in the Far East - from the Japanese Empire.
According to the Soviet General Staff, Germany could deploy 106 infantry, cavalry and motorized divisions, Poland - 65 infantry divisions, 16 cavalry brigades. Together - 161 infantry division, 13 cavalry and 5 motorized divisions. Part of the forces Germany left on the borders with France and Czechoslovakia, and Poland on the border with Czechoslovakia. However, the main forces and means were sent to the war with the USSR: 110-120 infantry and 12 cavalry divisions, 5400 tanks and tankettes, 3700 aircraft. Also, Finland, Estonia and Latvia could act against the USSR - 20 infantry divisions, 80 tanks and over 400 aircraft, Romania - up to 35 infantry divisions, 200 tanks and over 600 aircraft. In the Far East, Japan, continuing to wage war in China, could deploy its main forces against the USSR (leaving 10-15 divisions to wage war in China and to occupy occupied territories), that is, from 27 to 33 infantry divisions, 4 brigades, 1400 tanks and 1000 aircraft (excluding naval aviation).
The General Staff gave an analysis of the possible deployment of the enemy. On the Western Front, Germany and Poland could concentrate their main forces north or south of Polesie. This question was related to the situation in Europe and whether the Germans and Poles would be able to agree on the Ukrainian issue (in the end, they did not agree, and Germany "ate" Poland). Lithuania was occupied by Germans and Poles. The Germans used Latvia, Estonia and Finland for an offensive in the northern strategic direction. German troops in the north and the armies of the Baltic states were used to concentrate on Leningrad and cut off the Leningrad region from the rest of the USSR. In the North Sea, cruising operations of the German fleet and a blockade with the help of the submarine fleets of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk are possible. In the Baltic, the Germans will try to establish their dominance, as in the Black Sea, with the help of the Italian fleet.
In the Far East, judging by the construction of railways, one should expect the main attack of the Japanese army in the Primorsky and Imansky directions, as well as on Blagoveshchensk. Part of the Japanese forces will attack in Mongolia. In addition, under the dominance of a strong Japanese fleet at sea, private landing operations are possible both on the mainland and on Kamchatka and the development of an operation to capture the entire Sakhalin.
Polish predator
A myth has now been created about an innocent Polish victim who suffered from the aggression of the Third Reich and the USSR. In reality, however, the situation was reversed. The Second Rzeczpospolita (Polish Republic in 1918-1939) was itself a predator. The USSR is perceived as a great power, the winner of Hitler. But in the 1920s and 1930s, the situation was different. Poland defeated Soviet Russia in the 1919-1921 war. Captured the Western Russian regions. Warsaw also profited from the lost Second Reich. Thus, as a result of the First World War, the Russian and German empires collapsed, dramatically weakened militarily and economically. Germany was forced to limit its military capabilities to a minimum. Poland has become the most powerful military power in Eastern Europe.
The Soviet Union, weakened to the limit by the Civil War and intervention, economic devastation, all this time had to reckon with the Polish threat on its western borders. After all, Warsaw cherished plans to create a "Greater Poland" from sea to sea - from the Baltic to the Black Sea, the restoration of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth within the borders until 1772, with the capture of Lithuania and the Soviet Ukrainian Republic.
At the same time, since the 1920s, Polish politicians began to create in the West the image of Poland as a barrier to Bolshevism. So, in 1921, an alliance agreement with France was signed. At this time, Warsaw hoped that the West would again go on a "crusade" against the "red" Russia, and Poland would use this to seize Ukraine. Only later, when the Nazis seized power in Germany in 1933, the Polish nationalists saw an ally in Hitler. The Polish lords now hoped that Hitler would attack Russia, and Poland would take advantage of this war to implement its predatory plans in the east. There were real grounds under these plans - the Poles managed to profit from Czechoslovakia, when Hitler was able to convince England and France to give him the opportunity to dismember the Czechoslovak Republic.
Thus, the Polish elite was unable to give the country neither economic nor social reforms, nor prosperity in the 1920s and 1930s. At the same time, the Poles pursued a policy of colonization on the lands of occupied Western Belarus, Galicia and Volynia. The most effective way to colonize social discontent was the image of the enemy - the Russians, the Bolsheviks. And the most effective was the old slogan: "From mozha to mozha" ("from sea to sea"). In addition, the Poles had territorial claims to other neighbors. Warsaw wanted to capture Danzig, which was inhabited by the Germans and belonged to Prussia for several centuries, but by the will of the Entente it became a "free city". The Poles have repeatedly staged military and economic provocations to provoke a solution to the Danzig issue. Polish politicians openly demanded further expansion at the expense of Germany - the annexation of East Prussia and Silesia to Poland. Warsaw considered Lithuania a part of its state, had territorial claims to Czechoslovakia.
This explains the entire foreign policy of Poland in these years and its strangeness, when Warsaw itself was going to suicide, rejecting all attempts by Moscow to find a common language, to create a system of collective security in Eastern Europe. In 1932 Poland signed a non-aggression pact with the USSR, in 1934 - with Germany. But the documents did not contain a word about Poland's borders. Warsaw wanted a new big war in Europe. The First World War returned statehood to Poland, ethnic Polish lands and part of Western Russian territory (Western Belarus and Ukraine). Now the Polish elite hoped that a new big war would give Poland the new territories it had claimed. Therefore, Poland in the 1930s tried with all its might to ignite a big war, was a predator who wanted to profit at someone else's expense, and not an innocent sheep. In September 1939 Warsaw reaped the fruits of its aggressive policy.
Due to its military-economic potential, Poland could not become the main aggressor in Europe, but Jozef Pilsudski (the head of Poland in 1926-1935, actually a dictator) was no worse and no better than the same Mussolini or Mannerheim in Italy and Finland. Mussolini dreamed of restoring the Roman Empire, making the Mediterranean Sea Italian, Mannerheim - of "Great Finland" with Russian Karelia, the Kola Peninsula, Leningrad, Vologda and Arkhangelsk regions. Pilsudski and his heirs - about "Greater Poland", mainly at the expense of the Russian lands. The only question is that the Japanese, Italians and Germans at first managed to create their empires, and the Poles were stopped at the very beginning. Therefore, the Polish lords decided to be the victim of the aggressors.
In the USSR, in the 1920s and 1930s, they were well aware of the Polish threat. The memory of this was gradually erased only after the victory of 1945, when the Poles became allies from enemies, and Poland became part of the socialist camp. Then they secretly decided not to stir up the bloody past. In the first years after the Peace of Riga in 1921, the Polish border was a military one: there were constant clashes and skirmishes. Various White Guard and Petliura bandit formations were quietly located on the territory of Poland, which, with the complicity of the Polish military, periodically invaded Soviet Belarus and Ukraine. This situation is superbly shown in the Soviet feature film "State Border" 1980-1988. (second film) - "Peaceful summer of 21". Here, a Soviet border town is attacked by bandits dressed in Red Army uniforms, behind whom are Polish intelligence and White emigres.
This forced Moscow to keep large military forces on the border with Poland, not counting the NKVD troops and border guards. It is clear that this is why in the 1920s and 1930s Poland was considered a potential enemy in Moscow. This is also confirmed by Shaposhnikov's report of March 24, 1938.
