The likelihood of a grand escalation of regional military conflicts throughout the Eurasian continent is becoming more realistic in light of the development of a large-scale arms race in the Asia-Pacific region, which has recently threatened to cover not only the states of the Far East and Southeast Asia, but also part of the countries of Central Asia. including the leading Arab states of the region. Such a disappointing forecast can be made against the backdrop of the extensive naval exercises Malabar-2015, in which, in addition to the US and Indian navies, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces again began to take part.
US Navy AUG
Trident Juncture 2015, conducting multilateral military exercises of NATO and the United States of America in the Mediterranean and Atlantic, is only a small part of the cunning American plan to maintain a unipolar system of world order in Eurasia, while Malabar is a much more far-sighted military-political strategy. The West to expand its influence in Asia and contain the main developing "small" superpowers, which are China and Iran. The consequences of such plans can be the most unpredictable, especially for those members of the "anti-Chinese coalition" who are located in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region itself. Threatening prerequisites for a sharp exacerbation of the geostrategic situation in the region, accompanying the exercises "Malabar-2015", began to be seen even from the moment of the redeployment of high-altitude strategic reconnaissance UAVs RQ-4 "Global Hawk" of the US Air Force to the Japanese airbase Misawa at the end of 2014, purchases of additional RQ-4 The Ministry of Defense of Japan, support by the US Navy of the Philippines and Vietnam in a territorial dispute with China over the ownership of the Spratly archipelago, as well as Japan in a similar dispute over the (Diaoyutai) Senkaku archipelago.
The main news was the adopted amendment to the military doctrine of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, which, since the summer of 2015, allows the Japanese army to operate outside their own state, and we know well that the modern combat potential and technological excellence of the Japanese army are quite solid and can be easily used by the United States. as a powerful military-political tool to preserve their interests in the APR.
Japanese Akizuki-class destroyer. Unlike ships with the "Aegis" system, it has pronounced low-altitude anti-missile qualities, which make it possible to defend the KUG from a massive anti-ship missile strike.
As you can see, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces have already made their significant contribution to countering any strategic threats from the APR: exercises of electronic warfare, RTR, air defense troops are regularly held in the Eastern Military District, and recently even the Air Force was held, where the main part was working off air combat with the most advanced super-maneuverable multipurpose Su-35S fighters in the Kuril Islands region. But the asymmetric actions of the Russian Armed Forces alone in this vast strategic area are completely insufficient, and the Chinese side here plays a key role as a guarantor of military and economic stability in the APR and South Asia. But is China now capable of successfully resisting the armed forces of the "anti-Chinese coalition" and what important information have we extracted from the Malabar-2015 naval exercises?
THE POWER DISTRIBUTION IS COMPLEX ENOUGH, AND DEMANDS FROM CHINA A QUICK AND DECISIVE RESPONSE, AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PLA'S STRATEGIC COMPONENT
And this need is quite obvious, since two players are opposing the Celestial Empire at once, possessing weapons that are present in China only in the form of draft designs. On the agenda of the Chinese Armed Forces is the development of proper anti-ship defense, as well as the development of promising strategic missile-carrying bombers that could be used on the most remote borders of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, because the United States, India and Japan have the most developed naval air defense / missile defense, which is now capable of withstanding even modern DF-21D medium-range anti-ship ballistic missiles, the number and range of which do not yet allow to gain superiority on the distant sea approaches to the Celestial Empire. Also, the US Air Force is armed with strategic missile carriers B-1B and B-52H, capable of carrying massive lethal MRAU from a distance of 1000 km with the most advanced stealth anti-ship missiles "LRASM", the same can be done by surface ships of the American fleet.
With regard to the war in the air, it is worth considering the weakness of the PRC Air Force in the field of "AFARization" of fighter aircraft, which, in general, can have a very negative effect on the outcome of any air collision of Chinese aircraft with the OVS of the so-called "anti-Chinese bloc". To assess what is happening, we will resort to technological analysis and comparison of the avionics of the US, Indian and Japanese Air Force fighters with the avionics of Chinese fighters.
Almost all of the US Navy carrier-based aircraft is based on the F / A-18E / F “Super Hornet” multi-role fighters, which are equipped with fairly advanced AN / APG-79 airborne radars with AFAR. The capabilities of these radars are an order of magnitude superior to the parameters of the radars that are installed on most of the fighter aircraft fleet of the Chinese Air Force. The AN / APG-79 active phased array consists of 1100 transmit-receive modules (TPM), due to which the product has a high resolution and the ability to work in the synthetic aperture mode. The radar detects typical air targets with an RCS of 3 m2 at a distance of 160 km and "captures" them at 130-140 km. The station accompanies 28 airborne objects along the aisle with the ability to "capture" 8 targets simultaneously.
The airborne radar of the Japanese Air Defense Forces has a similar potential, the main and most advanced representative of which today remains the F-2A / B multipurpose tactical fighter. The fighter is represented by single and two-seat variants, which not only incorporated all the best design aspects of the American F-16C / D, but were also modernized by introducing more lighter composite elements of the airframe, as well as by increasing the wing area by 25% (with 27, 87 to 34, 84 m2): the Japanese car became slightly more maneuverable than the American Falcon, and also reduced fuel consumption during long-distance patrols at high altitudes. An innovative part of the F-2A avionics can also be considered an airborne radar with AFAR J-APG-1, the antenna array of which consists of 800 gallium arsenide PPMs, allowing to operate within a radius of 130 - 140 km. Although this radar was developed back in the early 90s, its basic characteristics are still higher than those of the "combat" radars of most Chinese fighters.
The multipurpose fighters of the Chinese Air Force Su-30MK2, Su-30MKK are equipped with Cassegrain airborne radars N001VE, which have the parameters of the same N001 of the first versions of the Su-27, the only difference is in the introduced air-to-ground mode. These stations have no more than 4 target channels and 10 target tracking channels "on the aisle" (SNP), which does not put Chinese aircraft in a tactical advantage in long-range air combat. In addition, these radars are not distinguished by high jamming immunity in front of such sophisticated electronic warfare systems as the American F / A-18G “Growler”, which is actively being used by the US Navy carrier-based aviation anti-Chinese stance along with Japan, India and the United States.
All 220 Su-30MKI in service with the Indian Air Force are also equipped with radars with PFAR N011M Bars, which have a higher resolution, throughput and energy than the Chinese N001VE, and even more so the "Pearl" installed on light J-10A fighters … As you can see, both quantitative and qualitative superiority of fighter aircraft are now on the side of the "anti-Chinese bloc", which is why the PRC will not be able to exercise air superiority at a distance of more than 1000 km from its own airspace. Given that the US Air Force may deploy additional F-22As to airbases in Guam and Thailand, and the 5th generation ATD-X Xingxing fighter will soon enter service with Japanese fighter aircraft, China faces a serious threat.
It is for this reason that we have observed such great interest and eagerness of the PRC in the acquisition of the Russian super-maneuverable multipurpose fighter Su-35S, the only combat aircraft that will be able to really "pull out of the abyss" of the PRC Air Force in the event of military aggression from the more powerful "anti-Chinese coalition" … The Su-35S possesses the most powerful radar station in the world "Irbis-E" and a large combat radius of 1500 - 1600 km. An important emphasis in the PRC is now being placed on the development of its own radar stations with PFAR / AFAR, which could fend off the threat from the high-tech western "military machine". The success of Chinese domination in the APR and the Indian Ocean directly depends on the acceleration of the program of the 5th generation J-20 and J-31 fighters.
EXERCISES "MALABAR-2015" INDICATE ANTI-CHINESE ARMS RACE FAR BEYOND THE APR
Indeed, the naval data, previously held between the Indian and American fleets, is gradually involving more and more regional players, who are united by a solid degree of influence in both the APR and the Indian Ocean. At the same time, the economic ambitions of the Celestial Empire in the Indian Ocean are absolutely clear, which will be defended precisely by the forces of the fleet and the developing anti-submarine and strategic aviation. It is through the Indian Ocean that the key sea routes for transporting hydrocarbons from the states of the Arabian Peninsula to the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region pass, which the PRC wants to control. The price of the issue is of strategic importance, since China will be able to seriously limit the energy capabilities of its American allies in the APR, in the event of a major regional conflict, by taking control of all sea routes passing through the Indian Ocean. The West is also deeply concerned about the possible acquisition of Pakistani ports through cooperation in promising projects of the military-industrial complex, one of which can be considered the licensed production of the JF-17 “Thunder” multipurpose medium fighters by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Pakistan. Chinese CAC. Pakistan's defense capabilities, which have extremely tense relations with India, rests solely on Chinese technology.
For this reason, the "Malabar" exercises are held, which are distinguished by the use of strategic types of weapons. This year, the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier CVN-71 USS “Theodore Roosevelt”, the CG-60 USS “Normandy” missile defense and missile defense system of the Ticonderoga class, and the literal near sea zone warship LCS-3 USS “Fort Worth” took part in the exercise. Air and submarine components were represented by the long-range anti-submarine aircraft P-8A Poseidon and the Los Angeles-class multipurpose nuclear submarine. This arsenal allows the fleet to conduct almost any strike and defensive operations, especially considering the powerful missile defense system provided by Aegis destroyers / cruisers and especially the most modern Indian destroyers of the Kolkata class, which I will dwell on in a little more detail.
TODAY, THE PRC NAVAL FORCES ARE NOT ABLE TO RESIST SERIOUSLY THE OVMS OF THE "ANTI-CHINESE BLOCK"
At first glance, it may seem that the Chinese fleet is strong enough to single-handedly repulse almost any strategic enemy, including even the fleet of another superpower, however, this is not entirely true. The Chinese Navy, armed with 10 powerful EM URO of the type "052S" (6 ships) and "052D" (4 ships), are able to carry out air defense of a ship's order in fairly extensive surface spaces and some shock functions, but this functionality is greatly limited by the capabilities of the CIUS ships, as well as the parameters of anti-ship weapons. The purpose of these destroyers is to ensure the long-term stability of the Chinese naval strike forces in the far sea zone, but it is known that when designing the radar architecture of the combat information and control system, the ships “inherited” all the problems that such a “promoted” system now has. Aegis”, the tendency of Chinese designers to copy Western technologies did their job.
The most advanced destroyers of the 052D type are equipped with the Type 346 multifunctional target designation radar. It is represented by a four-way AFAR, located on the edges of the main superstructure and is a more advanced analogue of the American AN / SPY-1A PFAR radar, but the Chinese radar's active phased array absolutely does not change the copied principle of operation of this system. As on the American Arley Burke-class destroyers and the Ticonderoga cruisers, on the Chinese ships the Type 346 radar serves as an AWACS, target track tie (SNP) and target designation, while the main role of target illumination for missiles is performed by specialized so-called single-channel " radar searchlights "CM-band (X-band) (on the American" Aegis "-ships are better known as continuous radiation radar AN / SPG-62). This architecture of the radar equipment of the air defense missile system imposes serious restrictions on the performance of the shipborne air defense system HHQ-9, which is not capable of simultaneously "capturing" and hitting more than 2 targets, even with a "star raid" of enemy anti-ship missiles. Even if BIUS can hold 18-20 missiles in the air, only two single-channel illumination radars will "choke" on the rapid redistribution of illumination from 2 hit targets to the next two. The disadvantages of this method of functioning of the CIUS and KZRK make Chinese destroyers completely defenseless against the air attack weapons that the US Navy and the Indian Air Force already possess.
Already, in order to counter the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean, the Indian Air Force did not stint to allocate $ 1,100 million for the formation of a specialized reinforced anti-ship aviation regiment of 42 Su-30MKI multipurpose fighters. To this end, more than 200 BrahMos-A supersonic anti-ship missiles will be purchased in stages. Each Su-30MKI can take 3 BrahMos-A anti-ship missiles (2 missiles on the underwing suspension points and one on the ventral), i.e. Only in a one-time combat sortie, such an air regiment can use 126 missiles at once against Chinese ships flying at a speed of 2200 km / h 15-20 meters above the wave crest, and China has absolutely nothing to oppose to such a strike in the ocean.
Indian Su-30MKI, equipped with 2-flight anti-ship missiles "BrahMos-A", are capable of inflicting irreparable damage to the Chinese Navy in the event of an escalation of a major conflict in the ocean theater
The anti-ship weapons of the Chinese Navy are now represented by the rather mediocre YJ-62 (C-602) subsonic missiles developed by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. This product has a long flight range (400 km), but its low speed (about 950 km / h) and RCS of at least 0.1m2 do not give any privileges in the fight against dozens of American Aegis destroyers, especially with the support of Indian EMs project 15A of the "Kolkata" class, which, even in single use, are capable of repelling a massive blow from slow Chinese anti-ship missiles.
Ships of this class are completely different from American ships with the Aegis system on board. They are perfectly "sharpened" for solving the problems of anti-missile defense against the strikes of numerous enemy anti-ship missiles. For this, the Indians equipped Project 15A with an Israeli multifunctional radar with AFAR EL / M-2248 MF-STAR, which does not use any auxiliary continuous-radiation radar for target illumination. Detection, tracking and destruction of targets is carried out exclusively at the expense of 4 antenna arrays of the station and associated with them BIUS "EMCCA Mk4", which controls the work of the most advanced Israeli naval air defense system "Barak-8". The target destruction range is 70 km, while about a dozen complex air targets are simultaneously "captured" at ranges up to 200 km. The system is much more perfect than the narrowly focused American "Aegis" and "Standart-2/3" air defense systems, which are often used to combat ballistic targets. The presence of the Kolkata EM in the Indian Navy completely limits the strike potential of the Chinese Navy in any of its versions, and indicates the need to develop a promising stealthy supersonic anti-ship missile system for the Chinese Navy and Air Force.
IS THE PRC SUBMARINE FLEET READY FOR A REGIONAL WAR?
The main indicator of the perfection of the 21st century submarine fleet is a set of criteria such as low noise, maximum duration of being submerged, the presence of perfect anti-ship and anti-submarine weapons in conjunction with highly sensitive sonar systems. And in this regard, the Chinese Navy is far from at the top stage of development.
In most fleets of the most developed countries, much attention is now paid to projects of multipurpose non-nuclear submarines with anaerobic air-independent power plants, a vivid example of which are the Russian submarines of the Lada family (project 677), the French Scorpena, the German project 212 and the Japanese submarines Oyashio "And" I litter ". These submarines can carry out underwater duty for 20-30 days without lifting to the surface, which is one of the most important factors in a successful reconnaissance or strike operation, and Chinese submarines do not yet have such capabilities today.
One of the most advanced Chinese diesel-electric submarines is the Type 039 "Sun". Some elements of low acoustic signature are introduced into the submarine; for example, a cruciform tail and special shock-absorbing supports between the power plant unit and the hull, a fairly powerful SQR-A SJC is also installed, represented by several active-passive and passive HASs in the bow and on the sides, which are capable of simultaneously tracking up to 16 underwater and surface targets in near and far zones of marine illumination. There is also a radar detector and complex RER and electronic warfare "Type 921-A". Missile or torpedo armament is used from 6 standard 533-mm TA. The officially known submersion depth of the submarine with a displacement of 2250 tons is 300 meters, which is not a unique indicator among modern submarines. The noise of the submarine is much higher than that of the same Japanese "Soryu" and "Oyashio". Meanwhile, Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Forces alone are armed with 11 Oyashio and 5 Soryu submarines. Even the older Japanese Oyashio submarines have a number of advantages over the Chinese Sun type, for example, in the design of the surface of the hull, slopes and sharp bends of the hull form are implemented, which several times reduce the submarine's radar signature on the surface, this reduces the maximum detection range of the radar anti-submarine and tactical aviation of the enemy 2-3 times. Another distinctive feature is the richer equipment with hydroacoustic and radio-technical surveillance systems. Oyashio is equipped with AN / ZQO-5B HAS with an active-passive spherical HAS, as well as a towed AN / ZQR-1 HAS in addition to onboard conformal passive antennas. All systems and complexes are controlled by the powerful AN / ZYQ-3 BIUS, based on the American element base, the performance and throughput of which is several times higher than on the Chinese submarine.
Anaerobic DSEPL "Soryu" is an even more advanced technological unit. At the heart of its power plant is an air-independent Stirling engine that allows you to stay under water for a month. These submarines are carried out with an original drop-shaped bow, and most of the hull area is equipped with an effective anechoic coating, which will make it invisible already at a distance of 25-40 km from the enemy. Only 16 Japanese submarines of the "Oyashio" and "Soryu" class are already capable of calling into question the maritime superiority of the PRC even in a small regional conflict, not to mention a larger one, where the American "Sea Wolf" and the French "Scorpions" purchased by the Indian Navy can take part. ". The meaning of comparing the atomic components of China's submarine fleets and the "anti-China bloc" does not make any logical sense at all, since the hegemonic side is obvious here.
In the future, the situation in the Asia-Pacific region will become more complicated, the naval exercises "Malabar" are likely to be more and more large-scale, which will lead to saturation of naval weapons throughout the Indian Ocean and the nearby part of South Asia, because China will definitely not sit idly by. An arms race can cover two key economic regions at once and even involve such large "players" as Iran.
In order to turn the situation in its favor, the Celestial Empire will in any case need support from the Russian Navy, and the development of a promising MAPL project similar to our "Ash" can also play a very important role. Let me remind you that in November of the previous year, a document was signed between the Russian Federation and the PRC on the "special status" of the military-technical partnership, according to which the Celestial Empire will be able to conclude "small" contracts with Russia for the supply of promising weapons, among which the MAPL of pr.885 appeared. "Ash" and the Su-35S fighter - the equipment that the PRC needs in the first place.
The involvement of the entire South Asia in the forced militarization in the next 10 years will turn the entire continent into a conditional theater of military operations on an unprecedented scale.
