At all times and all eras, people wanted to know the future and their destiny. The world seemed huge and terrible, full of hostile forces, and the theme of death runs like a black thread throughout the entire history of mankind.
What will happen to the Motherland and to us?
The question in the title, inadvertently posed by Y. Shevchuk in one of the songs, is no less burning than the notorious "main questions" of Russian history: "Who is to blame?", "What is to be done?", "Who lives well in Russia?" But it is even more universal, since the answer to it for the British, Belgians, Ukrainians, Syrians or Afghans is no less interesting than the Russians.
Nothing human was alien to all kinds of rulers of different countries (whatever they were called), politicians and generals, and they often turned for predictions to the specialists at hand. Sometimes they didn't really want to, but they had to: either a comet will arrive, then a solar or lunar eclipse will scare everyone, "false suns", pillars and even crosses in the sky (halo) will appear, the aurora will illuminate the night where it and have never seen - just have time to "decipher".
Voice of Heaven
Much to the regret of today's prophets, science has deprived them of the ability to interpret various astronomical and atmospheric phenomena. And now you will not frighten anyone with the prediction of a solar eclipse and will not pass off some fiery column in the sky for the will of heaven. Whether it was before! Christopher Columbus on the island of Jamaica, having "stolen" the Taino Luna from the Taino Indians (eclipsed on February 29, 1504), was able to force them to supply their crew with food free of charge.
In 312, the army of Constantine the Great, which opposed Maxentius, saw a fiery cross in the sky. This halo was of great importance for the future of the whole world religion - Christianity. Because in the battle at the Mulvian bridge, Constantine was victorious.
Another emperor, but no longer Byzantine, but German, Charles V, was so impressed by the appearance of a halo with false suns over the besieged Magdeburg (in 1551) that he allowed himself to be convinced that this city was under the protection of heaven.
However, there are examples of more rational behavior. You probably remember that the "black sun" blocked the path of Igor Svyatoslavich's squad, going on a campaign against the Polovtsians.
The Putivl prince looked at the sky and said:
“My brothers and squad! The mysteries of God are inscrutable, and no one can know its definition. He does what he wants, good or evil. If he wants, he will punish without a sign. And who knows - for us this is a sign or for someone else, because an eclipse is visible in all lands and peoples"
(Ipatiev Chronicle.)
Or maybe it was in vain that Igor neglected the "will of heaven"? No, after the first victory he, the most experienced of the princes, called the others home, but they did not go: they said that the horses were tired. And the next day they saw in front of them the huge forces of the Polovtsians. And their appearance did not depend on the solar eclipse. These Polovtsians, as Igor rightly noted, also saw the eclipse and could also, if desired, scare themselves and refuse to fight with the Russian squads.
In the same way, the beginning of the implementation of the Barbarossa plan, prepared by the German General Staff for a long time, did not depend at all on the opening of the tomb of Tamerlane in Samarkand.
But what were the results of the work of all kinds of pythias, augurs, haruspics, magi, astrologers and other "magicians"?
Since this article is intended specifically for the "Military Review", we are now not going to talk about the prophecies received by "civilians", even if they are very famous and famous. We will restrict ourselves to people related to politics and military affairs. And we will give some recommendations to those of the readers who, perhaps, someday wish to set foot on the thorny road of the prophets. Let's try to remove some of the heaviest "boulders" from this road.
Choice of specialty
First of all, you need to decide on a specialty. Try to choose one that, at the very least, is not very difficult to maintain a serious facial expression while performing professional duties.
After all, you probably read about the ancient Roman priests who interpreted the will of the gods according to the flight and cries of birds, and you know that they were called augurs. Have you ever heard the expression "augur's smile"? This phrase was made winged by Mark Thulius Cicero, who wrote in his book "On Fortune-telling" that the augurs who deceived various simpletons in such an unpretentious way, when meeting with colleagues, could hardly refrain from laughing.
In the novel by M. Lermontov "A Hero of Our Time" (chapter "Princess Mary") you can read:
“We often … talked about abstract subjects very seriously, until we both noticed that we were fooling each other. Then, looking significantly into each other's eyes, as the Roman augurs did, we began to laugh."
And here is what is written about this in the "General history, processed by" Satyricon "":
“The priests-augurs … were distinguished by the fact that when they met, they could not look at each other without a smile. Seeing their cheerful faces, the rest of the priests snorted into their sleeves. The parishioners, who had seen something in Greek tricks, were dying with laughter, looking at this whole company. Pontifex Maximus himself, looking at one of his subordinates, only waved his hand powerlessly and shook with flabby old age laughter. The vestals also giggled. It goes without saying that from this eternal cackle, the Roman religion quickly weakened and fell into decay."
It is also advisable to refrain from fortune telling by the internal organs of sacrificial animals: the people now are not like in the Etruscan state and in the ancient Roman republic, flimsy, nervous and impressionable: some lady will faint when you are her as a haruspex, the liver killed on her You will show the eyes of a sheep - why do you need these problems? Again, my hands are covered in blood, no aesthetics.
The work of a pythia will probably seem to some not too difficult and very promising.
All in all, it’s business: find something that remotely resembles a tripod, sit on it and, after chewing a bay leaf, inhale “substances” (“cherished vapors” in the original source), retelling your “cartoons” to clients. And let them figure out what exactly Heaven wanted to say. But such activities are harmful to health, and the salon of the "seer" can be mistaken for a drug den. The same applies to some shamanic practices associated with the use of a certain type of mushroom.
But astrologers who try to make individual predictions on such a shaky basis as the movement of planets and stars infinitely far from Earth are still thriving. They are not at all embarrassed by the fact that the world is full of people who were born or were conceived at the same hour or even minute - and none of them, for some reason, repeats the fate of the other.
In 1958, an interesting experiment was conducted to compare the fate of the "astrological twins", in which the professional astrologer Jeffrey Dean took part. Astrological charts of more than two thousand people born at the same time were compared with their character, state of health, abilities and chosen profession, marital status and some other parameters. No significant coincidences were found between their twins' fates.
In 1971, a study was conducted at the University of Michigan in the USA to verify the well-known statement of compatibility (or incompatibility) of spouses born under different signs of the zodiac. Data were collected on the birth of men and women in 3,500 couples. Several professional astrologers, independently of each other, were asked to "guess" which of these marriages were happy, which ended in divorce. Almost all of the astrologers' conclusions turned out to be false.
The only study in which the stars "did not disappoint" astrologers was carried out in the 50s of the twentieth century by Michel Gauquelin, who stated that his analysis of the performance of more than 2 thousand athletes revealed that the best of them were born in a certain position of Mars. When the astrological charts of the same people were re-examined by independent experts, the results of the experiment were refuted, and Gauquelin was accused of rigging the facts. This circumstance does not prevent astrology fans from still referring to his experiment.
Recently, all kinds of sorcerers, numerologists, fortunetellers on Tarot cards and other disrespectful public have also cheered up. By the way, those who use "magic" balls can sacredly believe in their predictions: with a long gaze at them, a person with a rich imagination can do anything.
Choice of wording
The second mandatory rule of a novice diviner is the ambiguity and maximum obscurity of his predictions. The works of Greek and Roman historians are full of stories about seemingly favorable prophecies received by kings, generals and heroes, and explanations why these prophecies were not fulfilled or were fulfilled exactly the opposite. And W. Churchill once said:
“A politician must be able to predict what will happen tomorrow, in a week, in a month and in a year. And then explain why this did not happen."
Note that Sir Winston put politicians on a par with haruspics and augurs. Therefore, do not take seriously either their speeches or their promises.
The cautionary tale of Orvar Odd
Stories about misunderstood diviners are found not only among ancient authors. In the "Orvar-Odd saga", for example, it tells about the prediction of the Norman leader, suspiciously similar to our Prophetic Oleg.
Even in his youth, to Orvar Oddu, a certain prophetess Heydr predicted that he would live longer than others, become a great warrior, perform many feats, become famous in distant countries, but die at home because of the beloved horse of his adoptive father Ingiald. Do you think Odd started jumping to the ceiling for joy? You are mistaken, this young man was very offended by the witch, because the best death for a Viking was considered death in battle. He even hit her out of excess of feelings, and for this Ingiald had to pay Geidr a big virus. But Orvar didn't care. That very night, he and Ingiald's son Asmund killed an innocent horse (even his name is called - Faxi, that is, "Mane") and fled from home.
Years passed, Orvar Odd became a great warrior, became famous, and then trouble came to the hero, from where no one expected - nostalgia tortured him. Since this time he was “getting ready” not for a “new campaign”, but with a courtesy visit, he took with him quite a few soldiers - 80 people, but the best: veterans tested in many battles, each of whom was worth a dozen different. It was not worth taking more, so as not to frighten fellow countrymen, but less could not be taken to such a respected person - they will not understand. And Odd went with this small (but very fierce and terrible, for those who will not show due respect) squad to his small homeland - the now abandoned settlement of Beruriod on the island of Hrafnista (this is the north of Norway, the modern region of Halogaland).
You already guessed that there he was stung by a snake that crawled out of a horse's skull?
Why do we know about this story? Before his death, Orvar Odd divided his people into two parts: the first 40 people prepared a mound for him, others listened and remembered the story of his life. Since there are no other versions of the death of this king, apparently, we will have to admit that the Norse warriors at that time had a good memory. And the Scandinavian notions of honor did not allow lying to self-respecting Vikings.
In the first Novgorod chronicle, by the way, it is said about the death of Prophetic Oleg:
“Ide Oleg to Novgorod and from there to Ladoga. Friends say, as if I am going to him across the sea and will bite the serpent in his leg and from then on I will die.
And it adds:
"There is a grave of him in Ladoz."
And there were also Oleg's graves in Kiev - on Mount Schekovitsa (as stated in the "Tale of Bygone Years") and at the Zhidovskiye Gates. One should not be surprised at this, because in Russia it was not the burial itself that was called "grave", but the hill piled up for the funeral. Famous and respected people could have several "graves": as many funerals, so many mounds.
But back to the soothsayer Heydr: was it impossible for her to tell Odd directly that it would not be a living horse that would destroy him, but a skull? Apparently, it is impossible, corporate ethics did not allow. But horses do not live as long as it was predicted to you, dear Orvar Odd, or whatever they called you. And you had absolutely no reason to wiggle the peacefully lying horse skull with a spear.
Pythias as an example to follow
Note that even in ancient times no one usually reproached the soothsayers for the ambiguity and impenetrable darkness of their forecasts - they were not responsible for the stupidity of the client.
Here you have to learn from the Pythias, they were high-level professionals, and it was almost impossible to understand them correctly. The most famous example, of course, is the Lydian king Croesus, who did not understand that the kingdom that he would destroy in the event of war was not someone else's, but his own.
The Macedonian king Philip turned out to be a great optimist, who received the following oracle:
“You see, the calf is crowned and its end is near. So the sacrificer follows after him."
He decided that the calf was Persia, which he had to crush in the upcoming campaign. But, after Philip was killed by his own bodyguard Pausanias, it became clear to everyone that the oracle had been misunderstood. Who's to blame? Clearly not a pythia. After all, another riddle - about the "silver spears" that should be used in the storming of cities, this tsar guessed.
Alexander the great method
Philip's son Alexander was an intelligent man (it was not for nothing that he learned from Aristotle) and therefore decided to determine for himself what is a prophecy and what is not.
In 334 BC. e., before the campaign against the Persians, he traditionally arrived in Delphi, but got there in the so-called unfortunate days, when the Pythias did not give prophecies: they lost their "astral connection" with Apollo. Great things awaited Alexander, so he himself had no time to wait. For this, you see, a very compelling and valid reason, he simply took the pythia "in an armful" and dragged him to the tripod. The indignant priestess inadvertently said: "Yes, you are invincible, my son!"
These words as a prophecy of Alexander were quite satisfied - he did not want to hear others.
In the winter of 334/333 BC. BC, in the glorious Phrygian city of Gordion, Alexander saw in a local temple a golden chariot, which, according to legend, was installed there 500 years ago by King Midas, the son of Gordius.
Have you guessed why the chariot, which, according to legend, was previously made of wood, became gold? And why did this Midas have "such big ears" (donkey ears), also remember?
The belts of this chariot were connected by a very complex knot of dogwood bast - so that even the ends could not be found. And the prophecy to Alexander was very necessary: if you untie the knot, you will have all of Asia. Alexander solved the problem with a sword - not entirely honest, of course, but who would dare to tell him about it? Let the other students of Aristotle be upset. "Scored and played."
Nothing personal
The third rule of a successful diviner is to avoid predicting your own destiny, because those in power may have a bad desire to test your qualifications. For example, in 1071 in Novgorod, a rebellious people, a sorcerer, declared to the head of the local administration (Prince Gleb Svyatoslavich, brother of Oleg “Gorislavich”) that he “knew everything”. Further events in the "Tale of Bygone Years" are described as follows:
“And Gleb said:“Do you know what will happen to you today?”
"I will create great miracles," he said.
Gleb, taking out an ax, cut the sorcerer, and he fell dead."
And if there is a direct question and it is impossible to get away from it, follow the example of the resourceful astrologer of the French king Louis XI. This astrologer inadvertently predicted the imminent death of the king's favorite Marguerite de Sassenage (grandmother of the famous Diane de Poitiers), and she suddenly, in fact, died after 2 weeks.
For some reason, Louis did not appreciate the astrologer's efforts, and decided to execute him out of harm's way - suddenly, he would drive some metressa into the coffin with his predictions. But he wanted to do it "beautifully", disgracing at last - he asked: do you know, oh, the wisest, how long you have to live personally? The astrologer realized what was happening and answered: "Sir, the stars have revealed to me that I will die three days before you."
For some reason, the king did not want to check this prediction.
Set the required date yourself
The next rule is no binding to specific dates. Here, as an example, we can cite the famous quatrain of Michel Nostradamus:
“How a miracle - such a crossing over the Alps:
The great commander outflanked the enemy.
The gunfire fell silent in the distance, The soldier is not afraid of blue snows."
You understand that the cunning Frenchman did not risk anything: someday, if not after a hundred years, then after two or three hundred years, some commander will surely lead his army through the Alps. And the necessary quatrain - here it is, has been lying for a long time, waiting for the hero. And when Nostradamus tried to indicate the date (14 quatrains contain an indication of the time of the fulfillment of the prophecy), the percentage of hits turned out to be zero. Here is the most famous example of a publicized prophet's fiasco:
In the year 1999 and the 7th month
The great King of terror / terror / will come from the sky, Resurrect the great King of Angoulême.
Before and after Mars will reign happily."
As we know, nothing terrible happened in July 1999.
The prediction of an attack by "Russians and Muslims" on Western Europe between 1982 and 1988 did not come true. Another quatrain reported that at the end of the sixth month of 2006, the king of Spain would cross the Pyrenees with his army. His legions will win the battle in the heart of Europe and reclaim the Holy Grail.
It was impossible to expect anything like this from King Juan Carlos I of Spain, so they decided that it was about predicting the victory of the Spanish national team at the World Cup. Alas, the Roja Fury let down both Nostradamus and their fans - they lost to the French national team in the 1/8 finals with a score of 1-3.
It is currently estimated that out of 449 Nostradamus predictions 18 are clearly incorrect, 41 can be considered fulfilled, 390 - it is still impossible to identify with any event. Only 9% of guesses - the result is simply negligible.
The son of Nostradamus, also an astrologer, stepped on the same "rake", indicating the exact date of the fire in the city of Pusen. When he saw that nothing was on fire on the indicated date, he decided that the stars needed "help" and tried to set fire to this city himself, for which he was executed in 1575.
In the 16th century, another famous scientist lived in Italy - the physician and mathematician Gerolamo Cardano.
He was the first to publish a drawing of a hinge mechanism (later called a cardan shaft), and it is claimed that he even implemented this mechanism in 1541, when he proposed to equip the carriage of the Spanish King Charles V entering Milan with a suspension of two interconnected shafts. He also became the author of the idea of the combination lock, invented the encryption device known as the Cardano Lattice, left the first detailed description of typhus and suggested that the cause of infectious diseases are living things invisible due to their small size. He also "dabbled" in astrology and somehow risked drawing up a horoscope of Jesus Christ, for which he ended up in prison, in which he spent several months. To the English king Edward VI (who became the hero of M. Twain's novel "The Prince and the Pauper"), he predicted life to the debt, and he took it and died after 9 months. Well, he did not deprive himself of a prediction either. According to legend, feeling that he was not going to die on his own specified day of death, he committed suicide. In fact, Cardano did not try to "help the stars" and lived quietly for another three years.
