Recently, the Brazilian and Russian media reported about the upcoming major military-technical agreement between the two countries. According to the official statement of the Chief of the General Staff of Brazil, Jose Carlos di Nardi, in the near future the armed forces of the South American country intend to buy a number of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. In addition, the Brazilian side intends to include in the final version of the agreement several conditions, which are expected to improve relations between the two countries and facilitate further cooperation.
According to reports, the Brazilian military wants to purchase from Russia three batteries of Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile-gun systems (up to 18 vehicles with weapons plus some auxiliary equipment), as well as several dozen Igla portable anti-aircraft missile systems. The total amount of the deal is approximately one billion US dollars. An additional condition from the Brazilian side is the transfer of technological documentation for "Armor" and "Needle", with the help of which the South American country will be able to establish their production at its enterprises. It is worth noting that the factories where it is planned to assemble anti-aircraft systems and missiles are still under construction and will start working a little later, in the coming years.
As noted by the Brazilian general di Nardi, the documentation on the proposal for the transfer of technological information has already been prepared and sent for approval to the administration of the President of Brazil. A little later, after approval, it will be sent to Russia, and at the end of this February high-level negotiations will take place, during which some aspects of the upcoming contract will be considered. The Russian media provide information that earlier the Brazilians were also offered the Tor-M2E air defense system, however, based on the results of studying the characteristics and consultations with the Russian military, it was the Pantsir-C1 that was chosen.
Brazil's requirements for the transfer of documents and the organization of licensed production are understandable. Under existing conditions, such a step will save on logistics, etc. questions a lot of time and money. At the same time, the construction of new factories can completely “eat up” all the savings in production. At the same time, it should be noted that the money invested in the construction of factories will remain inside Brazil and will have a beneficial effect on economic and social processes, at least on a regional scale.
There is reason to believe that the sale of a license for the production of anti-aircraft systems will have positive consequences for Russia as well. According to the source of the Kommersant publication, the equipment produced in Brazil under license will be considered domestic products and, as a result, there will be no need for constant international tenders for the supply of air defense systems. Thus, by selling a license, Russia can get a simple and effective channel to promote its military equipment to Brazil, and then, possibly, to other countries in South America. Since the plants for licensed assembly in legal terms, most likely, will be joint ventures, then if it is necessary to purchase another equipment for the country's air defense system, the Brazilian military will be able to announce an internal tender without going to the international level. If so, they will get the equipment they need and are likely to save time and money searching for the best option out of several.
It is worth noting that the requirement to create a joint venture is nothing new. Not so long ago, Brazil and Russia agreed on the joint production of Mi-171 multipurpose helicopters. In the overwhelming majority of cases, such economic and organizational measures are taken with one goal - to raise the technical level of one of the parties to the agreement. Brazil is currently striving to become a regional leader and for this it needs its own powerful defense industry. The Brazilian military admits that their air defense is not yet fully up to world standards. Thus, one contract is capable of solving two problems at once: updating air defense and raising the capabilities of its defense industry.
Already now, before the signing of a contract for the supply of ready-made systems and technical documentation, it is possible to make certain assumptions about the future of Russian-Brazilian cooperation in the field of weapons and military equipment. Not so long ago, the Russian concern Almaz-Antey presented to the Brazilian command a project for a radical upgrade of the country's air defense system. This project involves the division of Brazilian airspace into five zones, each of which will be responsible for its own operational formation. It is planned to create a three-echelon air defense system inside each of the zones. It is noteworthy that the project provides for the use of only Russian-made systems. So Brazil's current plans for the purchase of Pantsirey-C1 may well be the first step in a large-scale re-equipment and restructuring of its air defense system.
It is quite possible that after the completion of the construction of new production facilities, the Brazilian side will buy a license for the production of other air defense systems, which will serve together with the Pantsiri. There is also a small chance that the Brazilian military will be able to negotiate with the Russian defense industry for the supply of the latest S-400 air defense systems, and this will undoubtedly increase the combat potential of their anti-aircraft formations. Thus, there is every reason to believe that in the future the total volume of Russian-Brazilian contracts will constantly grow. So, from 2008 to 2012, the South American country received weapons and military equipment worth more than $ 300 million. The upcoming contract promises to be more than three times larger.
In the future, military-technical cooperation between Russia and Brazil may expand. Not so long ago, the Brazilian military announced the cancellation of a tender for the supply of fighters worth about $ 5 billion. Some experts interpreted this as Brazil's lack of the necessary money, but it is worth taking into account the position of the country's leadership. The current President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, opposes the possible purchase of French fighters. Therefore, Russian defense officials have the opportunity to propose the creation of a joint aircraft building enterprise and introduce, as an additional condition to the contract, the purchase of a certain number of fighters, for example, the Su-35 or even future export T-50 / FGFA.
In general, the future contract looks to be mutually beneficial for both parties, but there is also cause for concern. So far, we cannot exclude the possibility that Brazil, having fully armed its army, will begin to produce "Armor" and "Needles" for export, bypassing agreements with Russia. It should be admitted that such a development of events is possible, but so far all the actions of the Brazilian military and political leadership indicate the opposite. It seems that at present this country is more interested in arming its own army than in making money on exports. Therefore, the possible risks with "pirate" production should be taken into account, but not overestimated.
And yet, the most interesting at the present time are the detailed terms of the contract for the supply of anti-aircraft systems. In addition, in view of the relatively small volume of supplies - less than two dozen missile and cannon complexes - new agreements should be expected. Perhaps the expected contract will imply the supply of only finished complexes, and Brazilian enterprises will begin assembling Russian systems in accordance with the next one, which will be signed later.
