The T-90 is the recognized leader of the world tank market.
After the market was oversaturated with used tanks that were sold at dumping prices in the 1990s, the armored industry is once again experiencing a kind of boom. The importance of using tanks in modern theaters of military operations was confirmed during the US military operation in Iraq.
Nevertheless, the discussion about the place and role of MBT in modern armies continues, and, above all, in the United States itself.
Previously, the United States planned to abandon the use of armored units by 2030, moving first to the Stryker combat brigade groups, and then to the new concept of Combat Systems of the Future.
Proceeding from the fact that the future US army will predominantly have an "expeditionary" character, a number of congressmen and the military believe that there will be no need to have a large number of heavy armored vehicles of the MBT type. In their opinion, despite the fact that the MBT M1A2 SEP "Abrams" is one of the most modern models of weapons of the US army, maintaining a minimum production of tanks in the conditions of the predicted tasks solved by the army of the future is economically inexpedient. In this regard, in the opinion of a number of military and influential members of the US Congress, the option of closing production lines for assembling Abrams tanks in order to save money is not ruled out in the future. However, according to most experts, the closure of production lines for the Abrams MBT is economically unprofitable, since the resumption of production (if necessary) will require 4 times more funds than the curtailment of it. Evidence that the opinion about the continuation of MBT production prevails is the fact that in July 2011 the US Army requested $ 31 million for the modernization of the next batch of M1A2 SEP Abrams tanks.
In addition, for example, ATK is continuing to develop a new M829E4 sub-caliber round under a three-year program worth $ 77 million. The M829E4 is a 120-mm depleted uranium sub-caliber projectile designed for the M1A2 SEP Abrams tank. The new round represents the fifth generation of ammunition. It provides long-range destruction of tanks with active protection.
According to TSAMTO, the US Army is likely to abandon plans to retire the main battle tanks M1A2 "Abrams" and continue the program of their further modernization to the level of M1A3 with an extension of the service life until 2050.
PLACE OF OBT IN THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD EXPORT OF ARMORED EQUIPMENT
The role of MBT in a modern theater of operations is also confirmed by large programs implemented by a number of countries to modernize and improve existing tank parks. These are both national programs and import purchases.
The high rates of production of MBT for export are confirmed by statistics. For example, over the past four-year period (2007-2010), the volume of world exports of new MBTs, according to TSAMTO, amounted to $ 7, 956 billion. According to this indicator, MBTs rank second, second only to the category of "new armored vehicles" ($ 10, 35 billion.), and is significantly ahead of the category of "new armored combat vehicles" ($ 4, 507 billion).
Moreover, it should be noted that the MBT category has the highest share (14% of the total market value) among the three types of armored vehicles for the modernization and repair of equipment, the value of which is not included in this calculation, since these programs do not pass by price parameters as new. For comparison: in the category "armored vehicles" this indicator (in terms of value) is 0.4%, for armored vehicles - 10%.
In general, in the period from 2007 to 2010, the volume of world MBT exports (taking into account the supply of new tanks, licensed programs, supplies from the Armed Forces, all modernization and repair programs) is estimated by TSAMTO at $ 9, 254 billion. the amount (also taking into account all programs) is $ 5, 012 billion, for armored vehicles - $ 10, 39 billion.
In the coming four-year period (2011-2014), if the schedules for current contracts, licensing programs and ongoing tenders are met, the volume of world exports of new MBTs will amount to $ 5.87 billion. For comparison: the forecast for the category of new AFVs for the same period is $ 9. 692 billion, armored vehicles - $ 4.11 billion. Moreover, the MBT category will retain the highest value share for supplies from the Armed Forces, modernization and repair, the value of which is not taken into account here.
In addition, in the MBT category, a number of agreements are being prepared for signing, part of the deliveries under which may be implemented in the period under review. These programs are not included in this calculation as they are still considered as intentions.
Tanks "Abrams" from the best side have proven themselves during the war in Iraq.
WORLD MARKET OF MBT IN 2007-2014
In the TSAMTO rating by the number of new main battle tanks planned for delivery in 2011-2014. Russia will take first place by a wide margin from competitors.
If the schedules for current contracts, licensing programs, declared intentions and ongoing tenders are fulfilled, the volume of MBT exports by Russia in 2011-2014. will amount to 688 units worth $ 1, 979 billion, which is mainly provided by large contracts with India for licensed assembly and production of MBT T-90S.
For comparison: in the past four-year period (2007-2010), Russia exported (including licensed programs) 603 MBT worth $ 1.879 billion.
In general, the volume of Russian exports of MBT in the period 2007-2014. is estimated at 1,291 cars worth $ 3.858 billion.
The Indian Ground Forces are the largest customer for Russian MBTs. Russia is implementing with this country a long-term program for the production of MBT T-90S. In 2006, an agreement was signed for licensed production in India by 2019 of 1000 MBT T-90S. The cost of the entire program is estimated at $ 2.5 billion.
Russia fully completed the transfer of the T-90S MBT manufacturing technology to the Indian defense industry at the end of 2008, which allows for the full production cycle of T-90S tanks in India. On August 24, 2009, the HVF (Heavy Vehicle Factory) in Avadi hosted the ceremony of handing over to the Indian Ground Forces the first batch of 10 T-90C MBTs (Indian designation Bishma), completely built in India under the license signed with Russia. agreement. The transferred tanks entered service with the 73rd regiment of the Indian Army.
According to plans, since 2010, the HVF company in Avadi must annually produce up to 100 T-90C MBTs under license. That is, Russia, even in the absence of new contracts, will dominate in this segment of the Indian market at least until 2020.
Indian tank "Arjun".
In addition to the license agreement, a number of contracts were signed for the supply of MBT T-90S. The first contract worth about $ 800 million (36, 250 billion rupees) for the supply of 310 MBT T-90S Russia signed with India in 2001 124 MBT were delivered ready-made. Another 186 tanks from this batch were assembled at the HVF enterprise from vehicle kits supplied by Uralvagonzavod. On November 30, 2007, the Indian government signed a major new contract with Russia worth 49 billion rupees ($ 1.2366 billion) for the purchase of 347 MBT T-90S, including 124 fully assembled tanks and 223 units in the form of vehicle kits. In May 2009, India signed an agreement with Russia on the additional supply of 50 MBT T-90S vehicle kits.
T-90S tanks will gradually replace obsolete models, including the T-55 and early versions of the T-72. In total, by 2020, the Indian Armed Forces plan to receive 1,700 MBT T-90S.
The purchase of tanks is being implemented as part of a plan to form 21 regiments, equipped with MBT T-90S and 40 regiments, which will be armed with the modernized T-72M1 "Ajeya". According to current plans by 2020the total number of T-90S and T-72M1 MBTs in service with the Indian Army will be about 3800 units.
Ukrainian tank "Oplot".
Further purchases of the T-90S MBT can be realized by increasing their production under the license agreement for 1000 T-90S MBTs. This is possible in the event that India has problems with the implementation of the program for the production of tanks of national production "Arjun Mk1" and "Arjun Mk2", as well as with a delay in the implementation of the program for the development of a national MBT of a new generation.
As part of a visit to Russia in March of this year, a delegation of the heavy engineering plant HVF held negotiations on the approval and signing of contract documents for the supply of components in 2011-2012. at the request of the Indian side. During the meeting, the sides discussed issues of mutual cooperation concerning the MBT T-90 program. At present, Russian specialists are assisting in the licensed production of the delivered large assemblies of T-90S products and their warranty support in the troops.
In addition to India, in the period under review, the recipients of Russian MBTs were Azerbaijan, Algeria, Venezuela, Cyprus, Syria, Turkmenistan and Uganda. According to the report submitted by Russia to the UN Register for 2010 on the supply of conventional weapons and military equipment, the delivery of 20 MBTs from India and 27 MBTs to Cyprus are declared in the category of "battle tanks".
Thus, Russia has completed deliveries to India of finished products under the 2007 contract for 347 MBT T-90S for $ 1.237 billion (in 2008 24 MBT were delivered, in 2009 - 80 units, in 2010 - 20 units). The remaining tanks, in accordance with the contract, will be produced under license in India.
The Ministry of Defense of Cyprus in 2009 signed a contract for the supply of 41 MBT T-80U / UK to the National Guard in the amount of $ 156 million. According to the report, 27 MBT were delivered in 2010. The remaining vehicles, apparently, were handed over at the beginning of this year.
In 2010, the media reported on the delivery of six T-90S MBTs to Turkmenistan, however, Russia did not submit these data to the UN Register. In May 2011, the Russian Federation delivered the first batch of 35 T-72B1 main battle tanks to Venezuela. In September 2009, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced the purchase of a total of 92 T-72 tanks from Russia.
A feature of the world MBT market in the period 2007-2014. will be a significant strengthening of China's position. At the moment, China is in the TSAMTO rating for the period 2007-2014. while it takes 4th place (298 MBT worth about $ 662, 5 million).
China's entry into the world MBT market was ensured by a joint project with Pakistan for the MBT-2000, which was also supplied to Morocco and Myanmar. There is no detailed information on the number of MBTs that Pakistan will buy in the coming years (it was previously reported about the intention to produce an additional 300 tanks under license), so so far the calculation for China has been made up to 2010 inclusive. It is noteworthy that in the period 2007-2010. In terms of the quantitative volume of MBT exports, China is in the second place after Russia in the TSAMTO rating.
T-80 tanks are exported to Cyprus.
At the moment, the second place in the TSAMTO rating for the period 2007-2014. occupied by the United States (457 cars worth $ 4, 971 billion). In 2007-2010 for export were delivered 262 MBT worth $ 2, 376 billion. In 2011-2014. the projected volume of deliveries will amount to 195 MBTs worth $ 2, 595 billion. Third place for the period 2007-2014. is occupied by Germany (348 cars worth $ 3, 487 billion). Germany achieved the greatest results in the first four-year period (2007-2010) in connection with the implementation of the licensed production of Leopard-2 tanks in Greece and Spain. In 2007-2010 for export (taking into account licensed programs), 272 MBTs were delivered to the amount of $ 2, 671 billion. For the period 2011-2014. Germany's order book is still 76 new cars worth $ 816.6 million. Fifth place for the period 2007-2014. with the delivery of the MBT PT-91M "Twarda" to Malaysia is occupied by Poland (48 tanks worth $ 368 million). This contract came as a surprise on the market for new cars and, most likely, it will remain the only achievement of Poland in this area.
It should be noted that in the category "tender" for the period 2011-2014.included the intention of the Thai Armed Forces to purchase a large batch of MBT. If the reports about winning the competition of the Ukrainian tank "Oplot" are confirmed, Ukraine will take the fourth place in terms of MBT exports in the period 2011-2014.
In further ratings, taking into account 2015 and beyond, South Korea will also be present with the start of production under license in Turkey of the new MBT K-2.
In general, in the period from 2007 to 2010. in the world were exported 2950 MBT worth $ 9, 254 billion. Of this amount, the market for new tanks amounted to 1483 units worth $ 7, 956 billion, which is 50, 27% of the total and 85, 97% of the value of global supplies.
In the coming four-year period (2011-2014), if the delivery schedules for current contracts, intentions and ongoing tenders are met, the projected sales of new tanks will amount to 1,079 units worth $ 5.87 billion.
Upgraded T-72 tanks are supplied to the Armed Forces of Venezuela.
In percentage terms, the volume of the world market for new MBTs in 2011-2014. compared to 2007-2010 will amount to 72.8% in quantitative terms and 73.8% in value. At the same time, it should be noted that the full portfolio of orders for the supply of MBT for the period 2011-2014. not yet formed. Taking into account promising contracts, the volume of the world MBT market in 2011-2014. will be almost identical to the previous four-year period.
According to the TsAMTO methodology, the “new” category includes deliveries of new tanks worth at least $ 2 million, licensed programs, as well as deliveries of MBTs from the Armed Forces of exporting countries, upgraded to the level of new vehicles with an extended service life, the price of which at the time of delivery is more than 50% of the cost of a new tank of the same type for the same period of time.
During the period under review, MBT deliveries, which are not included in the "new" category in terms of cost, were also sold by Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Great Britain, Israel, Spain, the Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Finland, Czech Republic, Chile, Switzerland and South Korea …
LARGEST EXPECTED PURCHASES IN OBT CATEGORY
Saudi Arabia. In early July this year, the German government approved the sale of Leopard-2 tanks to Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is interested in purchasing up to 250 MBT "Leopard-2". The cost of the program is estimated at 3 billion euros. In addition to the sale of tanks, the potential agreement includes training of personnel and maintenance of vehicles.
Initially, Spain began negotiations on the sale of Leopard-2 tanks to Saudi Arabia, after which Germany intervened in the negotiations as the developer of this MBT. The defense ministries of the two countries began negotiations on the possibility of selling MBT, created on the basis of the project of the Leopard-2A6 tanks produced in Spain, to Riyadh last fall. Saudi specialists were also able to familiarize themselves with the capabilities of the Leopard-2E tanks (an improved version of the Leopard-2A6) at Spanish training grounds.
According to TSAMTO, the contract will be concluded with the Spanish company General Dynamics Santa Barbara Systems, and the German Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall will act as suppliers of the main part of the components.
Egypt. The Defense Cooperation and Security Agency (DSCA) of the US Department of Defense notified Congress in July of this year about the planned sale of M1A1 Abrams MBT assembly kits to Egypt, as well as contract-related services and equipment worth $ 1.229 billion under the Foreign Military sales.
The Egyptian government has approached the United States with a request for the purchase of 125 M1A1 Abrams MBT assembly kits. The main contractor of the contract will be the American company General Dynamics. The program can be implemented at the Egyptian tank plant No. 200, where there is already an assembly plant for the production of M1A1.
Distribution of market shares for new tanks in 2007-2014
Distribution of market shares for new tanks in 2007-2010
Distribution of market shares for new tanks in 2011-2014
Egypt is the main sales market for MBTs for the United States (like the Indian market for Russia). Therefore, let us recall the history of "tank" relations between the two countries. Under the terms of the original agreement signed in 1988 between the United States and Egypt, the Egyptian army received 555 M1A1 tanks, 25 of which were assembled in the United States by General Dynamics Land Systems. The assembly was completed before 1996. In early 2000, General Dynamics Land Systems received a contract worth $ 156 million for the supply of another 100 sets of MBT M1A1, which were delivered from 2001 to 2003. In 2002, the US Army Armored Vehicles and Weapons Command signed a $ 141 million contract with General Dynamics to support the assembly in Egypt of two batches of 200 Abrams tanks each. In 2004, Egypt signed a contract for the supply of another 125 sets of MBT M1A1 "Abrams", bringing their total number to 880 units. In 2008, another batch of 125 MBTs was ordered.
Ethiopia. According to unconfirmed information, in June this year, the Ministry of Defense of Ethiopia signed a contract with Ukrspetsexport for the supply of 200 MBT T-72 (from the Ukrainian Armed Forces). The deal is valued at $ 100 million.
Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh in June this year made a decision to purchase 44 new MBT-2000 MBTs and three armored recovery vehicles in China as part of an ongoing plan to modernize the country's Armed Forces.
Argentina. The ground forces of Argentina and the Israeli company "Elbit Systems" in May this year signed an agreement on the supply of equipment for the modernization of tanks 230 TAM (Tanque Argentino Mediano - Argentine Medium Tank).
Thailand. The command of the Armed Forces of Thailand in March this year made a decision to purchase a batch of 200 "Oplot" MBTs in Ukraine. The purchase price is estimated at 7 billion baht (about $ 232 million).
Tank "Leopard-2" of the Armed Forces of Canada.
In conclusion, it should be noted that Russia, India, Turkey, South Korea and a number of other countries are working on the development of a new generation of national MBTs. A large number of countries are working on the modernization of the most modern MBT models they have in service (USA, France, Great Britain, Germany). Therefore, it seems premature to talk about the "decline" of the era of tanks.
Vladimir Yurievich SHVAREV - Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of the World Arms Trade (TsAMTO)
