FAILURE "INDIAN START"
As the long-term practice of close military-technical cooperation has shown, India, being a strategic segment of the Asian arms market for Russia, was not included in the list of states with which there is a positive dynamics of interaction in all areas of the defense industry without exception. Having brought the combat potential of its armed forces to the level of a powerful regional superpower (which was achieved mainly due to the development of Russian, American, French and British technologies back in the XX century), the leadership of Indian defense departments and organizations "descended" to outright "jumps", unreasonable whims and intrigues in already ongoing joint programs. Without a doubt, the most legendary and rich in inadequate events can be considered the ambitious program for the development of the 5th generation FGFA stealth multirole fighter. At the beginning of 2017, the Indian Ministry of Defense, as well as the management of Hindustan Aeronautics, participating in the Russian-Indian project, announced the suspension of work pending confirmation by Rosoboronexport and Sukhoi Design Bureau that they were ready to transfer all technologies for the promising heavy fighter.
Not only is New Delhi more and more openly integrated into the "anti-China axis" with the United States, Australia and Japan in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region (because of which India cannot be considered a priori a reliable strategic ally of Russia), it is also the latest technological developments in the field of aviation demanded. Among more than 40 technological points requested for transfer to the Indian Ministry of Defense, we met: the latest modification of the turbofan of the second stage "Product 30", a full-fledged version of the Sh-121 onboard radar complex as part of the main radar with AFAR N036 "Belka", 2 BO stations N036B-1- 01L / B and 2 wing stations Н036L-1-01 operating in the decimeter L-band. Such requests look more than strange, given that the Indians are well aware of the value of the above elements for the Russian PAK FA project and the impossibility of acquainting themselves with the specifics of their serial production in the current military-political situation. A more or less good trend is observed only under the program of further modernization of the Su-30MKI to the "Super Suhoi" version, which has a lower radar signature and an updated avionics.
The long-suffering Indian tender MMRCA, which provided for the purchase of 126 medium fighters of the 4 ++ generation for the Indian Air Force, also ended in a rather unfavorable way. According to its results, the expensive Rafale became the favorites, which is inferior to our MiG-35 in maximum speed, as well as in maneuverability, especially if the engines of the latter are equipped with nozzles with an all-aspect KLIVT thrust vector deflection system. Moreover, in the near future, the MiG-35 can be equipped with an airborne radar with an AFAR "Zhuk-AME", the transmit-receive modules of which are placed on a substrate made using the LTCC low-temperature co-fired ceramic technology. After the appearance of this station, the operational resource and reliability of the MiG radar missile systems will increase dramatically, and in the eyes of the customer, the machine will become many times preferable to the Rafals, Typhoons and Gripenov, given that the price of our fighter is about 2 times cheaper. But the Indians did not understand this. The Rafali were purchased, the onboard electronic equipment of which does not have interchangeable elements either with the deck MiG-29K, or with their more advanced two-seater versions of the MiG-29KUB, of which the Indian fleet has 45 units under the terms of the contract. The final choice of Delhi in favor of Rafal in the MMRCA tender completely contradicts the creation of a unified technological base and a simplified service scheme for Russian-made tactical fighters (recall that the total MiG-29UB / UPG / K / KUB fleet of the Indian Navy and Air Force is 107 fighters).
Nevertheless, the light did not converge on India's preferences alone. The true export capabilities of the MiG-29M line were embodied in the Egyptian contract signed in May 2015, under which Cairo receives 46 single-seat multi-role MiG-29M fighters (Product 9-61) and 6-8 two-seat MiG-29M2 fighters (MiG -35D, "Product 9-67"), as well as missile weapons for them. The contract is valued at $ 2 billion. The architecture of the onboard radio-electronic equipment of these machines is based on the MIL-STD-1553B data bus, due to which they will be able to go through several stages of modernization within 2-3 decades, including replacing the onboard radar with the promising Zhuk-AME, installing a vector deflection system thrust, as well as equipping the lower (NS-OAR) and upper (VS-OAR) hemispheres with a detection system for attacking missiles. The Egyptian MiG-29M / M2, in the process of deep improvement, will become the most advanced medium fighters in the Middle East and Western Asia. For example, in terms of the information awareness of the crew exclusively at the expense of their own on-board facilities (SOAP, Zhuk-AME, SOLO, OLS-K), the MiG-35 optical-electronic and electronic intelligence services will significantly surpass the Israeli F-16Is, as well as those purchased by Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia F / A-18E / F, F-15SA and F-15QA, and therefore it is quite possible to expect additional contracts both with Egypt and with states such as Iran or Iraq.
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However, the Egyptians got an excellent opportunity to compare the combat characteristics of the purchased MiG-29M with the French Rafale-EM / DM, the third batch of which was delivered to the North African state the previous week. It is known that Cairo signed a contract with Dassault Aviation for the purchase of 24 Rafale F3 transitional multi-role fighters back in February 2015; its cost amounted to $ 3.8 billion, excluding a large set of missile and bomb equipment, with which the deal is estimated at almost $ 6 billion.
UNIQUE PERSPECTIVES OF THE MIG-29M FAMILY IN THE SOUTH AMERICAN ARMS MARKET
The Middle East and Western Asia arms markets can be considered the so-called "launch asset" for JSC RAC MiG in its ambitious program of promoting foreign customers on the markets. South American countries, whose Air Forces are in a state of crisis and need urgent rearmament or replenishment of their fleets, can become a real "strategic asset". As you know, this list includes 4 states: Peru, Uruguay, Argentina and Venezuela. Most of the tactical fighters in service with the air forces of these states have either almost exhausted their operational resource or do not correspond to the network-centric conditions of modern wars.
Take Peru, for example. Despite the fact that Lima established fairly stable relations with all its neighbors, there was a rather serious territorial conflict with neighboring Ecuador over the ownership of a large plot in the Cenepa Valley (east of the Cordillera del Condor ridge), which Ecuador had been claiming since 1960. immediately after the denunciation of the border treaty signed in 1941.
This conflict, which took place from January 21 to February 28, 1995, is known to us as the "war of Alto Senepa". In that confrontation, almost all types of armored vehicles, tactical aviation, Grads, etc. were used. Mutual exchanges of armies and attempts at local offensive operations in the Senepa River valley continued until February 28, the day of the signing of the Montevideo Declaration of Peace, which proclaimed the end of the war. Everything would be fine, but the outcome of the conflict turned out to be far from in favor of the Ecuadorian side, since the demarcation carried out on May 13, 1999, established a clear border along the Cordelier del Condor ridge, which threw Ecuador onto its western slopes. No one can rule out that after another change of government, the official Quito will decide once again to revise the borders in the disputed valley of the river. Senepa.
Highly suspicious developments are also taking place in bilateral relations between Peru and Chile. For example, in March 2015, members of the Peruvian Navy were declassified who were selling important tactical information in Santiago. At the same time, the Chilean defense department carefully concealed what was happening for a long time. The goals of conducting intelligence activities in the structure of the Peruvian Navy are still unknown, but they may well be positioned as an indicator of future conflict situations.
The Peruvian Air Force is armed with 11 light MFI "Mirage-2000P / DP", 2 combat training MiG-29UB, 6 multipurpose MiG-29SE and 7 more advanced MiG-29SMT. Attack aviation is represented by 8 Su-25UBK and 10 Su-25K. Among them, only Mirages and MiG-29SE / SMT in the amount of 25 fighters belong to the most combat-ready fleet, capable of carrying out air superiority and strikes against ground targets. This is quite enough to contain 25 Ecuadorian "Kfirs", but very little to confront 42 Chilean F-16A / B / C / D. Today, the Chilean Air Force has not only a significant numerical advantage over the Peruvian Air Force, but also a technological one. In particular, the Chilean F-16C Block 50 can be "charged" with the penultimate long-range modification of the AIM-120C-7 missile, capable of striking Peruvian fighters at a distance of 120 km. An equally important argument in favor of Santiago can be considered the IAI Phalcon long-range radar detection and control aircraft purchased from Israel, capable of detecting MiGs and Mirages of the Peruvian Air Force at a distance of 350-380 km.
Consequently, Peru needs to update the fighter component of the Air Force, and RSK MiG is ready to offer Lima the most profitable and effective options for such an update. To achieve a technical condition of the Peruvian Air Force on par with Chile, it is necessary to purchase about 2 squadrons (24 vehicles) of the "Egyptian version" MiG-29M2 multipurpose fighters equipped with R-27ER and RVV-AE missiles, as well as high-precision weapons to destroy ground targets (X -29T, X-59M). Such a deal will amount to approximately 50% of Peru's annual budget for 2017 (about $ 1 billion). To increase the combat potential of the Peruvian Air Force with a "reserve" of at least one decade, it is also possible to provide an export credit for the purchase of even more MiG-29M2. For better information coverage of fighter crews and proper coordination in the implementation of air operations, Peru will need at least one AWACS aircraft, the best candidate for the role of which can be considered the Chinese ZDK-03, previously supplied by the Pakistan Air Force.
The next potential buyer of the MiG-29M fighters is Argentina, and here the situation is even more complicated than with Peru. Official Buenos Aires is still full of optimism in the idea of regaining control over the Falkland Islands, but Argentina has practically no military tactical tools for this. The Mirage multipurpose fighters have been completely withdrawn from the Air Force, and the fleet is represented by only 19 IA-63 "Pampa" (AT-63) combat training aircraft unsuitable for modern air operations. Only light tactical missiles "Martin Pescador" with a range of 9 km have been adapted to the avionics of these aircraft. Not only will it not be possible to get close to any modern "Daring" class EM of the British Navy at such a distance, the missile also has a radio command guidance system that can be easily suppressed by shipborne electronic warfare systems. There is no information about the placement of the first versions of close air combat and self-defense missiles of the AIM-9 “Sidewinder” family on the Pumps.
The only combat-ready modification can be the IA-63 "Pampa-III". This vehicle can receive an AN / APG-67 airborne radar with a fighter-type target detection range of 80 km and the hardware capability of using AIM-120C AMRAAM missiles. The Pampa modernization work is being carried out by the Argentinean company FAdeA with the support of Lockheed Martin specialists. The AN / APG-67 radar can allow the Pampa-III not only to conduct aerial combat beyond visual visibility, but also to work on surface / ground targets, including the synthetic aperture scanning (SAR) mode and the GMTI tracking mode for mobile ground targets. Nevertheless, even a few dozen subsonic "Pumps" with a maximum combat load of 1200 kg and a speed of 0.7 - 0.75M cannot be opposed to a pair of links of modern British Typhoons, deployed to the Malvinas Islands.
Russian MiGs are quite capable of restoring the high potential of the operational-tactical echelon of the Argentine Air Force, which has plunged into decline. Taking into account territorial claims to London, Buenos Aires will need from 80 to 100 multipurpose MiG-29M2 fighters with further modernization of the on-board radar system due to the installation of the Zhuk-AE / AME radar, because very soon the British Typhoons will begin to receive new Captor radars. -E , the characteristics of which do not lag behind AN / APG-81; and you shouldn't forget about the F-35Bs purchased by London.
The next Latin American customer for multi-role tactical fighters may be tiny Uruguay. The state, located between Argentina and the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, is only one and a half times larger in area than Bulgaria and has a military budget of $ 170 million. An important feature of Uruguay is a very close economic and cultural relationship with the Russian Federation and Armenia, and the latter has a huge community in the Latin American state, which often influences the politics of Montevideo. After all, it is known that Uruguay was the first to condemn Turkey for the Armenian genocide, and then supported Yerevan in the foreign policy arena in the issue of protecting the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. It is quite logical that today the military department of Uruguay is studying the possibility of buying fighters of the MiG-29 family, which are known to the Uruguayans for their service on the western air borders of Armenia as part of the Russian Aerospace Forces at the Eribuni airbase. At the moment, Montevideo does not have territorial disputes and other conflicts with neighboring states, and therefore one can expect only a small contract for the purchase of a MiG-29M2 link, or a squadron of simpler MiG-29S vehicles, taken from the reserve, which is quite enough for occasional patrolling of air borders and maintaining minimal flight crew training. Such a deal will amount to about $ 90-120 million, which is 7-30 times less than with any other South American state.
They need partial replenishment of the combat aircraft fleet and the Venezuelan Air Force. In Colombia, a bloody half-century conflict between the country's leadership and the FARC partisan Marxist movement, an almost full-fledged army formation armed with small arms, large-caliber machine guns, RPGs, antipersonnel mines, etc., is moving towards an end. The number of the group reaches almost 20 thousand people. The main goal of the FARC is the socialist revolution, achieved by a Maoist insurgency. Meanwhile, the latter has already led to 220 thousand victims.
But the story with the FARC was not limited to the confrontation within the borders of Colombia. In July 2010, the Colombian government managed to accuse Caracas of harboring a large formation of the Colombian rebel organization FARC in Venezuela. The accusation was made at an extraordinary meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS) in Washington, which led to the severance of diplomatic relations between states. Two years earlier, there was another incident that almost led to a military confrontation between Colombia and Venezuela's coalition with Ecuador. Units of the government forces of Colombia invaded Ecuador without permission during an operation to suppress one of the FARC cells. Ecuadorian President Rafael Carrera and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez regarded this action as an encroachment on territorial integrity. Armored units of the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan forces moved urgently to the areas bordering Colombia, and preparations for combat duty of tactical aviation began at the air bases. Later, the degree of tension decreased, but the historical fact of the aggressive actions of the Colombians towards neighboring states did not evaporate anywhere.
I also recall the fact that the crews of Russian strategic missile-carrying bombers were groundlessly accused of violating Colombian airspace by Juan Manuel Santos. This happened in November 2013, during a visit by "strategists" to friendly Venezuela and Nicaragua. While the flight of the White Swans took place strictly over the neutral waters of the Caribbean Sea, the command of the Colombian Air Force received an order from the country's leadership to send Israeli-made Kfir C.10 / 12 multipurpose fighters for escort and possible interception. Consequently, Venezuela, Ecuador and Russia are regarded by Bogota as opponents. Moreover, in the event of a military-political crisis, Colombia will be supported by the current White House regime. This is confirmed by the participation of the Colombian "Kfir C.10" in the exercise "Red Flag 12-4" (in 2012), as well as in a similar exercise in 2015, held at Nellis airbase.
The modern Air Force and Air Defense of Venezuela are the strongest in the region: they are armed with 2 squadrons of 23 heavy multipurpose Su-30MKV fighters. Technologically, they are head and shoulders above the existing fleet of the Colombian "Kfirs". There is also 1 squadron of 12 multi-role fighters of the early version of the F-16A Block 15, which consolidates the power of Caracas against the backdrop of Bogotá. But such an alignment will be observed only before intervention in possible conflicts on the side of Colombia by the tactical aviation of the US Air Force, or the carrier-based aircraft of the US Navy. It is in this moment that Venezuela's need for a large number of new modifications of fighters of the MiG-29 and Su-30 families lies. The desire of Caracas to purchase an additional number of Su-30 became known from the statement of the Deputy Director General of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of Russia Anatoly Punchuk, who oversees the Russian delegation at the 11th Latin American Exhibition and Conference on Aerospace and Defense Technologies "LAAD-2017". At the same time, Pinchuk focused on the huge socio-economic problems that could become a serious obstacle in concluding a contract for the supply of additional Su-30s. The situation in the country is indeed very "explosive", and the problems here are not only economic.
The fact is that following the results of the 2015 parliamentary elections, the victory was won by the extremely oppositional Bloc of Democratic Unity (BDU) of Venezuela, which at the beginning of the 4th quarter of the year completely stopped interaction and consultations with the executive branch of the South American state. In early 2017, the Venezuelan National Assembly (Parliament), led by the BDE, tried to remove Nicolas Maduro from the post of President, starting an impeachment process, but the Supreme Court declared the process invalid. The crisis was provoked both by rather bad trends in the socio-economic sector, and by solid "feeding" of opposition forces from Washington, which intends to achieve the earliest possible removal of Maduro from the presidency, including both legal instruments and the traditional instrument for the states - a coup d'etat. In October of the previous year, during an attempt to disperse a demonstration in the state of Miranda, the use of firearms against the police by adherents of the opposition Bloc of Democratic Unity was noted. All these events are almost identical to the “maydanut orange plague” that led to the decline and persistent manifestations of fascism in the Ukrainian elite. In the current situation of destabilization, military intervention in the internal conflict of Venezuela by the US Armed Forces looks very plausible, especially since Caracas can become an excellent springboard for deploying an early warning system and a Russian naval base to control the Atlantic and airspace over the east coast of the United States.
In such a situation, Venezuela will no longer need the Su-30MKV, which have the outdated N001VE airborne radar, but the new export Su-30SME equipped with the Bars. But the defense budget of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is not dimensionless and amounts to about 12-13.5 billion dollars. For this reason, it is much more expedient for Caracas to purchase two more squadrons of Su-30SME in the amount of 24 vehicles with a set of weapons (such a contract can be estimated at 2.5 billion dollars) and about 70 MiG-29M2 for another 4 billion dollars with weapons. In such numbers, these vehicles are quite capable of creating good defensive lines over the southern part of the Caribbean Sea, especially since the ground air defense component of Venezuela is also the strongest in the region: strategic objects are covered by 12 Buk-M2E battalions and 2 S-300VM Antey battalions -2500 ". At the same time, the Air Force of Venezuela did not get rid of the "disease" inherent in the majority of the air forces of South American states - the lack of radar patrol and guidance aircraft.
As you can see, at least 4 South American states, whose defense officials were present at LAAD-2017 in Rio de Janeiro, showed a serious interest in the products of OKB MiG, and such interest will most likely lead to contracts worth 4 or more billion dollars. Argentina and Venezuela are the most promising customers for Russian tactical fighters on the South American "weapons marketplace". In the future, contracts may also be considered concerning the purchase of modern surface ships of the "frigate" class, diesel-electric submarines and air defense systems. Here you can isolate the Armed Forces of Argentina, which generally lack a more or less modern fleet and ground-based air defense systems.
BANGLADESH AND IRAN - ASIAN ARMS MARKET SPARE OPTIONS
Despite the fact that Egypt has acquired more than 50 MiG-29M / M2 fighters, this state cannot be considered the main zone of prospects for RSK MiG, because Cairo wants to "grab" everywhere: "Rafali" are purchased, M1A1 "Abrams" are produced, and in general, the ruling entourage of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi continues to look strictly in the western direction, adhering to the military-political vector of the "Arabian coalition" and other Central Asian satellites of the United States. An example of this can be considered the absolutely neutral position of official Cairo regarding a massive missile attack by the American TFR BGM-109 "Tomahawk" on the Syrian airbase Shayrat. Egypt's Foreign Ministry only "expressed concern about the dangerous development of events." In this situation, it is rather difficult to talk about any far-reaching plans for a strategic partnership between Moscow and Cairo. Iran is another matter.
Tehran and Moscow operate in the Syrian theater of military operations practically together, absolutely without regard to the opinion of Washington and its henchmen. Iranian air defense and radio engineering units are more than 50% equipped with Russian equipment or radio-electronic element base of Russian or Chinese origin. The only component of the Air Force that needs updating today is the fighter fleet. We have reviewed it more than once: 43 F-14A "Tomcat" fighter-interceptors (with the AN / AWG-9 airborne radar, which unified anti-aircraft missiles of the MIM-23B "Hawk" family, which have a range of 90 - 110 km due to the high-altitude launch), 36 MiG-29A / U / UB, 64 F-4E / D Phantom-II, 30 Su-24MK, 10 Su-25 attack aircraft, 10 Mirage F1 light multipurpose fighters and 24 extremely outdated Chinese F- 7M (Chinese copy of the MiG-21). In such conditions, Iran will not be able to withstand even the current Qatar Air Force, which is armed with only F-15QA as many as 72 units. And "at the gates" of the Arabian Coalition Air Force and Hel Haavir with their 1000 multifunctional fighters! The only way out for Iran is the acquisition of several hundred MiG-35S, capable in the full sense of this, to fight for dominance in the Middle East sky. A future deal with the Iranian Defense Ministry for these vehicles could exceed $ 4 billion.
Bangladesh is another Asian country interested in the magnificent Fulcrum-F. The fighter aircraft fleet of the Air Force of this state is represented by 32 Chinese F-7MG / MP, as well as 8 MiG-29A / UB, which are not capable of withstanding any modern fighter squadron in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. India has taken up the issue of financing the renewed Bangladesh Air Force, with which Dhaka will soon sign a strategic agreement on military-technical cooperation for 25 years. Financial support to Bangladesh from Delhi is carried out at the expense of an open credit line for the purchase of Russian weapons and spare parts worth $ 600 million. It is reported that Bangladesh may purchase 8 multipurpose MiG-35 fighters as part of a tender announced by the general director of Bangladesh for defense procurement. Among other contenders, the Su-30SME and Su-35S are considered, but given the geographical location and the length of the borders of Bangladesh, success is on the side of the brainchild of RSK MiG.
While this material was being prepared, the outstanding flight, technical and combat qualities of the MiG-29 fighters were once again confirmed by the example of the tricks of the Indian side. Having ignored our cars in the MMRCA tender, the real interest of the Indians in the "Falkrums" did not disappear at all. As it became known from the Malaysian media with reference to the Prime Minister of the monarchy Datuk Seri Najib Razak, the Indian Ministry of Defense has shown interest in 10 single-seat MiG-29N and 2 two-seat MiG-29NUB. As you know, in the ongoing Malaysian tender for the modernization of the country's air force, the French "Rafale" is in the lead, after the adoption of which the "29th" will be written off. But this is not the end of their service. Obviously, these multipurpose fighters will end up in the HAL workshops, where they will be upgraded to the level of the MiG-29UPG: full-fledged air-to-surface modes will appear, as well as anti-ship and anti-radar capabilities. The upgrade may be carried out prior to shipment to India by the Airod Aerospace Technology Systems Corporation's technical center in Kuantan. After work on updating the airframe, the machine's resource should reach 6000 hours, which will allow the machines to serve until about 2030. To date, the export potential and modernization reserve of Falkrums has practically no visible limits.
