After the adoption of GPV-2020, officials quite often talk about the rearmament of the Air Force (well, or more broadly, the supply of aviation systems to the RF Armed Forces). At the same time, the specific parameters of this rearmament and the size of the Air Force by 2020 are not directly cited. In view of this, many media outlets present their forecasts, but they are presented, as a rule, in tabular form - without arguments or a calculation system. This article is just an attempt to predict the combat strength of the RF Air Force by that date. All information was collected from open sources - from media materials. There are no claims to absolute accuracy, because the ways of the state … … defense order in Russia are inscrutable, and, often, are a secret even for those who form it.
The total strength of the Air Force
So, let's start with the main thing - with the total strength of the Air Force by 2020. This number will be formed from new-built aircraft and their modernized "senior colleagues".
In his programmatic article (https://www.rg.ru/2012/02/20/putin-armiya.html) V. V. Putin pointed out that: "… In the coming decade, the troops will receive … more than 600 modern aircraft, including fifth generation fighters, over a thousand helicopters." At the same time, the current Minister of Defense S. K. Shoigu recently cited slightly different data: "… by the end of 2020 we have to receive from industrial enterprises about two thousand new aviation complexes, including 985 helicopters." The numbers are of the same order, but there are also differences in details. What is the reason for this? For helicopters, the delivered vehicles may no longer be counted. Some changes in the parameters of GPV-2020 are also possible. But only they will require changes in funding. Theoretically, this is facilitated by the refusal to resume production of the An-124 and a slight reduction in the number of helicopter purchases.
Shoigu mentioned, in fact, no less than 700-800 aircraft (we will subtract helicopters from the total number). Article V. V. This does not contradict Putin (more than 600 planes), but “more than 600” does not really correlate with “almost 1000”. And money for "extra" 100-200 machines (even taking into account the abandonment of "Ruslans") will need to be raised additionally, especially if you buy fighters and front-line bombers an astronomical figure - up to a quarter of a trillion rubles for 200 cars, despite the fact that PAK FA or Su-35S are more expensive). Thus, an increase in purchases is most likely due to the cheaper combat training Yak-130 (all the more so that it is very necessary), attack aircraft and UAVs (it seems, according to media materials, work has intensified). Although the additional purchase of the Su-34 up to 140 units. can also take place. Now there are about 24 of them. + about 120 Su-24M. Will be - 124 pcs. But to replace front-line bombers in the 1 x 1 format, one and a half dozen more Su-34s will be required.
Based on the data presented, it seems appropriate to take the average figures of 700 aircraft and 1000 helicopters. Total - 1700 boards.
Now let's move on to the modernized technology. In general, by 2020, the share of new equipment in the Armed Forces should be 70%. But this percentage is not the same for different types and types of troops. For the Strategic Missile Forces - up to 100% (sometimes they say 90%). For the Air Force, figures were quoted in the same 70%.
I also admit that the share of new equipment will "reach" 80%, but not due to an increase in its purchases, but due to a greater write-off of old machines. However, this article uses a 70/30 ratio. Therefore, the forecast is moderately optimistic.
By simple calculations (X = 1700x30 / 70), we get (approximately) 730 upgraded sides. In other words, the number of the RF Air Force by 2020 is planned to be in the region of 2,430-2,500 aircraft and helicopters.
They seem to have figured out the total. Let's get down to specifics. Let's start with helicopters. This is the most highlighted topic, and deliveries are already in full swing.
Helicopters
For attack helicopters, it is planned to have 3 (!) Models - Ka-52 (140 units), Mi-28N (96 units), and also Mi-35M (48 units). A total of 284 units were planned. (not including some of the vehicles lost in accidents). The Mi-24 and Ka-50 will most likely be decommissioned by this time (exhaustion of the resource / lack of timely repair; in addition, the Ka-50 is presented only in the center of combat use, it is not in combat units). It is possible that a certain number of Ka-52s will be made in a ship-based version, but will they be among those 140 pieces? or not is a question. Also, it is not known whether the Mi-35 will be purchased further.
Mi-8 will also be replaced by more modern "brothers". Now the number of Mi-8s of all modifications is estimated at 350-600 aircraft. It is likely (if averaged) that there are about 450 of them. 32 new Mi-8s (in the AMT, AMTSh and MTV modifications) have already been delivered. The replacement of old modifications will continue, but the specific parameters are still unknown. However, it can be assumed that the number of Mi-8s will be somewhat reduced. Partially (where appropriate) it will be replaced by lighter Ka-60s (100 pieces announced). The main training helicopter, possibly, will be the Ansat-U. Now the contract for 10 or 30 units is being fulfilled, but the real need for training vehicles is much more (at least 100 units). In addition, the contract for 36 Ka-226 is being fulfilled. It is less suitable for the role of the main training vehicle - the coaxial scheme is not the main one for army aviation (except for the Ka-52).
The delivery of 18 heavy transport Mi-26 (new construction) is also in progress. Their total number at the moment is 30-40 pcs. It is possible that some of these machines will have an extended service life. There is no adequate alternative to it. Therefore, if the number of Mi-26s is reduced, then not by much (the conclusion is made on the basis of common sense).
Let's sum up another intermediate result. Attack helicopters (including the Mi-35) - about 284 vehicles. Combat transport (assault), transport and other helicopters (as is already known) - 198 vehicles. Total: 284 + 198 = 482 (pcs.); 1000-482 = 518 (pcs.). Of this remnant, there will obviously be several hundred (about 300 or more) Mi-8s. The remainder - about 200 aircraft, will probably be given for training and special helicopters (but the purchase of a couple of dozen Mi-26s is also possible). Let's move on to the airplanes.
Fighter aircraft
The purchases of new equipment for the Air Force have been announced in some detail. The troops received 12 new-built Su-27SM3 and 4 Su-30M2 (https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2011-03-18/7_vvs.html) 2 contracts), 48 Su-35S. An additional 48 Su-35S will probably be ordered additionally. Its exact number will depend on the success of the T-50. It was announced that the PAK FA until 2020 is planned to purchase up to 60 pieces. But this will take a maximum of 5 years, and Sukhoi is loaded with orders, and the plane is new, not modernized. But the plans are still in force. In addition, the Air Force received the "Algerian" MiG-29 SMT (28 pcs.) And MiG-29 UBT (6 pcs.).
What will be upgraded among fighters? It is known that 60 MiG-31s will be upgraded to the BM version; according to Zelin, 30-40 MiG-31s will also remain in the DZ and BS modifications (https://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/20669). The rest of the MiG-31s (about 150 units) are planned to be written off.
In addition, in recent years, a significant number (more than half of the existing) Su-27s have been modernized. (https://www.armstrade.org/includes/periodics/news/2012/0313/100511974/detail.shtml). It is planned to modernize the entire Su-27 fleet (out of 300-350 available). Unfortunately, no more precise figures could be found. It is not specified what for "the number of the aircraft fleet" and at what point. In general, the modernization of the Su-27 began in the mid-2000s. In fact, by 2020, the oldest Su-27 should be 34-36 years old. Most likely, a certain number of cars will be written off earlier - from the turn of 2015. At the same time, the presence of a successor, the Su-35S, will become noticeable, which, in principle, is logical. And the PAK FA should be on the way. Thus, it will be possible to estimate the number of modernized Su-27s in the Air Force by 2020 in the amount of 170-190 aircraft.
As far as we know, the old MiG-29 will not be modernized. Most likely, they will all be written off (about 200 pcs.). In recent years, they often wrote about problems with the glider and have already "rejected" up to 90-100 aircraft. It is too early to talk about the purchase of the MiG-35 (although the military does not exclude such a possibility). The aircraft will be able to go into production from 14-16 years. - will have time to put a few dozen. But will Poghosyan's "lobby" make it possible? Question … However, such a delivery would look logical.
"Sukhoi", as already mentioned, is very heavily loaded. MiG is the opposite. Even now, he has more orders for India than for Russia (for the Russian Federation - only 28 MiG-29K). If you place an order for at least 96 MiG-35s, we will support the manufacturer and save a little - sometimes you can get by with a lighter and cheaper front-line fighter. But these are only words so far. The MiG-35 is being tested.
Thus, if the procurement parameters do not change, the Air Force plans to have about 266 newly built fighters by 2020. About 290 more fighters of the old construction are being modernized. Total - about 556 boards (plus / minus). It is likely that about 450 aircraft will be decommissioned - up to 40% of the payroll. It is quite possible that many of these aircraft are still incapable of combat, and some will soon run out of service. In such a situation, large orders for the MiG-35 can make up for the write-off at least in some part … However, the figures for the write-off of the MiG-29 and (especially) the Su-27 are rather speculative. But several hundred cars will be written off anyway. An official reduction in the number of fighter aircraft will take place. If the MiG-35 is launched into production, the Su-27 will probably be written off in large quantities.
Army aircraft
Let's move on to the attack aircraft. The main word here is "modernization". In recent years (since 2006), several dozen Su-25s have already been upgraded to various versions of the SM. In total, about 150 - 160 of them will be modernized. (https://topwar.ru/20868-bezymyannaya-modernizaciya-gracha.html) In addition, the production of new Su-25 is also planned. But there is no specifics here yet. Taking into account the time that remains until 2020, it will be possible to produce no more than 40 cars (if there will be a large-scale production at all - it seems, a year ago, only 1 new one was delivered). Yes, and they are already thinking about the new attack aircraft, but it is a more distant prospect - like the PAK YES. Thus, by 2020, it is possible to predict the presence of about 200 attack aircraft (mostly modernized ones). Their glider is stronger, and the load is less - therefore, their write-off can be carried out in a smaller volume. Yes, and now our "operational minds" believe, basically, only in local conflicts, where attack aircraft are more in demand. One can argue here, but this is a different topic …
Frontline bombers
It is now clear that by 2020 only one type of front-line bomber will remain in service - the Su-34, the Su-24 will become history. The Su-34 should definitely arrive in a quantity of 124 units, but an additional purchase is possible, bringing the total number of vehicles to 140 units. (to replace the Su-24 with the Su-34 in 1 x 1 format).
Long-range aviation
New supplies of equipment for long-range (strategic) aviation are not expected. But all of it will be modernized. Obviously, the Tu-160 will remain in the number of 16 pieces. (in total) - they will not finish building the reserves, and PAK DA will not have time to go into production by that time. All flightworthy Tu-95SMs are also being upgraded. Their total number fluctuates in the region of 40-64 cars (I met different data). The most probable figures are in the region of exactly 40 aircraft - the development of the flight life of even such reliable aircraft cannot be ignored (64 units - this is for 2005). Also, 30 Tu-22M3 are being modernized. Now there are at least 140 of them, but, according to open data, about 45 machines are flyable. The exhaustion of the notorious flight resource and the long absence of repairs again has an impact … The rest, gradually, will be written off. By 2020, we will receive in long-range aviation, in total, about 85 aircraft (maximum). Is it a lot or a little? It is difficult to say, but the fact that they began to force the PAK DA project suggests that the decrease in the number of long-range aviation is mainly caused by the state of the aircraft fleet, and not by the desire to liquidate it.
Combat training (training) aircraft.
By 2017, the Air Force should receive 65 Yak-130s. Obviously, their purchase will continue. While maintaining the same pace, by 2020 about 20-25 more vehicles can be delivered. Total - about 90 pcs. It is difficult to speak about the number of L-39s - the author did not find the exact data, sometimes the figure of 330 is found. How accurate it is is a question. It is likely 30-40 percent lower. Over the next few years, there will be fewer of them. The need for the Air Force is estimated at 200-250 training vehicles. Thus, the L-39 should remain at least 100 pieces by 2020.
Also recently it was reported about the almost complete development of the resource of all Su-27UB. The problem will probably be solved by using the Su-30. But for the PAK FA, you still need to create your own training machine. Su-30 - for the Su-35, T-50 - a more specific vehicle in terms of flight characteristics and the concept as a whole. In addition, it is often believed that multifunctional vehicles such as the Su-30 will be able to solve all problems. The logic is that he is a training aircraft, a fighter, and a striker. Total 60 + 60 + 60 = 180 … But this is not so - only 60 per unit of time.
Military transport aviation
There is a lot of uncertainty here. Let's start with what is known. Purchase of 48 Il-476 is planned. Now there are about 200 units in the Armed Forces. IL-76 (possibly a little more). It is clearly not possible to completely replace them. But this is not such a critical moment. The resource of such machines is quite large. If desired, it can be extended to 40-45 years. According to the available information (https://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/21004/) it is possible to repair up to 12 aircraft per year. Thus, it is possible to "capitalize" (taking into account that this is already being done) up to 110-140 cars. In total, the Il 76/476 may be about 180-190 vehicles by 2020.
An-124, probably, will not go into production. But the existing ones will not be massively written off, trying to extend their resource. Now there are about 20 of them.
An-12 and An-22 (no more than 30 pcs.), Presumably, will be written off - age. But it is also possible to extend the service life of some of them until 2017-2020. An-72 (about 20 units) may also not stay for a long time.
What is being replaced? It seems that a contract has been signed for 11 An-140-100s. At the same time, everything can be limited to this quantity, because at the end of 2012, the Ministry of Defense filed quality claims against Antonov. It is quite possible that this is so, but it is possible that this is an element of the "price war" and the cars will not be abandoned. Time will tell … Negotiations on the An-70 are being conducted with varying success. So far, the matter has not significantly moved. But about 60 cars of this class are planned. It was also reported about the purchase of several Tu-214s.
In total, we can get at BTA: about 120 new cars + 160 modernized ones.
"Special" aircraft
Let's start with AWACS. All A-50s (27 units) must be upgraded to A-50U. There are no exact figures for the A-100 yet. Production will begin no earlier than 2016. It is quite possible that a certain number of A-100 is already included in the contract for the Il-476.
In addition, it is planned to replace the Il-20 - the electronic warfare and LKP Il-22 aircraft. (https://izvestia.ru/news/541859) In total, there are about 40 of them. But the planes are old. How many flightable is the question. It is also unclear whether additional contracts for their construction will be concluded or whether they will be built on account of contracts for the Il-476. But it is clear that if all Il-476s are given special vehicles, there will be nothing left for VTA.
There are up to 19 Il-78 tanker aircraft in the Air Force. A replacement is being developed for them, but so far there is no exact information (https://topwar.ru/9509-v-rossii-il-78-smenit-novyy-samolet-zapravschik.html).
Airplanes and helicopters of the VIP-class does not seem appropriate to consider.
UAV
As for the UAV, there is also no clarity. They are being developed and will be designed to replace (probably) reconnaissance aircraft and supplement the army with their strike capabilities. Their approximate number will be possible to "estimate" only after summing up other results.
Grand total
So what do we have?
New construction (maximum): 266 fighters + 40 attack aircraft + 140 front-line bombers + 90 combat training + 120 VTA or special = 656 new aircraft. Pretty close to 700 pcs. However, I would like to note that there may be 40 less of them (due to the absence of all new Su-25s, 16 Su-34s and a decrease in the number of Yak-130s). And +30 "Algerian" MiG-29s are also taken into account here. Thus, the emerging "window" of 40-100 vehicles can be filled with medium and heavy UAVs and MiG-35s. If, of course, they have time to be launched into a series.
Now let's move on to the modernized machines of the old construction: 290 fighters + 85 long-range aircraft + 100 L-39 + 190 VTA and special (estimated) = 665.
Total: 656 + 665 = 1321 aircraft + 1100 helicopters (taking into account the old Mi-26, etc.) = 2321 pcs. This is also quite close to 2430-2500 pieces calculated at the beginning of the article. The largest error, probably, falls on the Su-27, Su-25, L-39 and (especially) UAVs, possibly a slightly different number of helicopters - upwards.
This is the result. The author does not pretend to be complete and reliable - the topic still has many "blank spots". The calculations do not take into account the multiplicity of the number of aircraft and the number of squadrons. And the financial side of the issue is quite difficult to study in detail. I would be grateful if readers have clarifications and additions.
There will be many difficulties in the implementation of GPV-2020 - problems with pricing, quality, development and construction times have become traditional for the military-industrial complex. It is quite possible that everything will be fully implemented only by 2022-2025. But let's hope for the best.
Of course, many will say that the future RF Air Force "is not the same …". I do not argue that this is so when compared with the power of the USSR Air Force at the peak of their power. There were 4-5 times more planes and helicopters. Formally, there are more of them now than there will be. If you look at the "Military Balance-2010", then the current Russian Air Force is estimated at about 4,000 aircraft. Almost a twofold reduction! But this is probably not the case. The same Su-24 (of all modifications, including "regular" and MR) "Militarists" counted about 550 pieces. In reality (according to A. N. Zelin in an interview) - 124 pcs. (excluding the Su-24MR and naval aviation). A few days later, there were 123 of them (disaster). Poor maintenance, "parts cannibalism", downsizing and "optimization" in the 90s and early 2000s did their job. It is quite possible that in the ranks - about half (or maybe less) of the Military Balance data - the same 2500 aircraft. And not all of them may be in a ready state.
The Air Force update will increase the number of combat-ready aircraft per unit of time. The main thing is to create an infrastructure for their basing / storage (hangars, etc.), timely maintenance and repairs. And the rearmament of the Air Force in 2020 will not end. It is necessary to introduce the PAK FA (replacement for the modernized Su-27 and, possibly, the MiG-31 - but where to go …). In long-range aviation, the PAK DA will be put into service. This is an even more difficult task - such aircraft are even more difficult to build than fighters, and the "flying wing" layout can pose a challenge … Also, reconnaissance and strike UAVs should be developed, military aviation and specialized equipment (AWACS aircraft, tankers, etc.) should be completely updated. It will take another 7-10 years.
Well, then (from 2030-2035) everything should go on a "planned" track with a phased modernization and replacement of the combat strength. The main thing is that the country is no longer "stormy" … have already passed …
