November 10, 2011: India's submarine fleet is falling apart from old age, and new boats are not going to arrive in time. It is not surprising that India's defense procurement bureaucracy has long been known to be slow, careless and stubborn, especially in an environment that requires it to operate quickly. The tangled history of belated submarines is especially painful.
According to the plan, by the end of the decade, a dozen new submarines were to be in operation. Currently, only six of them are in service. The other six can be enrolled in five years. This is difficult to be sure, as the manufacturer of the second six boats has not yet been selected. Defense bigwigs are claiming a "green street" for this project, but knowledgeable observers don't expect these officials to be quick.
India's attempts to build the first six licensed submarines (France's Scorpene) have been postponed several times, and the price has risen to $ 5 billion ($ 834 million each). Despite the threat to India of losing thousands of workers and specialists with experience in building modern submarines, defense procurement bureaucrats seem to have learned nothing. These officials have already caused numerous delays and cost overruns in negotiations to build the Scorpene diesel-electric submarines. The bureaucrats were so careless about the deal that it was almost three years behind schedule. But it is even further behind schedule when you take into account the several years of delay caused by Indian bureaucrats since its inception. Delays and mismanagement have already increased the cost of the $ 4 billion project by 25 percent. The first Scorpene is expected to be commissioned in 2015 and then one a year until all six are delivered.
There is a certain urgency because next year, five of India's 16 submarines (10 Kilo and two Foxtrot classes built by Russia, and four German Type 209s) will be decommissioned (some of them are already half decommissioned due to age and decrepitude). Two years after that, India will have only five functioning boats. India believes it needs at least 18 non-nuclear submarines to deal with Pakistan and China.
However, officials and politicians have been hesitant for nearly a decade, and until 2005, India did not sign a deal to buy six French Scorpene class boats. The delays have led the French to raise prices for some key components, and India has had some problems relocating production to itself. The first Scorpene was to be built in France and the remaining five in India. While some problems were anticipated (India has been licensed to manufacture sophisticated weapons for decades), procurement bureaucrats for the Department of Defense never fail to amaze when it comes to delaying work or simply getting in the way.
The Scorpene are similar to the French submarine Agosta 90B recently acquired by Pakistan. The first Agosta was built in France and the other two were built in Pakistan. The Scorpene purchase was seen as a response to Pakistani Agostas. The Scorpene is a later design, the result of a collaboration between French and Spanish submarine builders. Agosta has a displacement of 1,500 tons (surface), diesel-electric drive, 36 crew and four 533 mm (21 inches) torpedo tubes (20 torpedoes and / or anti-ship missiles). The Scorpene is slightly heavier (1,700 tons), has a smaller crew (32 people) and is slightly faster. It has six 533 mm torpedo tubes and carries 18 torpedoes and / or missiles. Both models can be equipped with AIP (air independent propulsion). This allows the boat to stay underwater longer, making it harder to find. The AIP system allows the submarine to be under water for more than a week, at low speed (5-10 kilometers per hour). The Pakistanis have the ability to equip the two current Agostas with AIP.
During the negotiation and signing of the Scorpene supply agreement, India was deeply concerned about the Pakistani navy, but China is currently regarded as the main adversary. Chinese submarines are not as efficient as Pakistani submarines because of less advanced technology and less trained crews. India can use its Scorpenes to counter any attempt by China to expand its naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Thus, delays and cost overruns with Scorpene are causing quite a bit of concern in India. However, at the pace that India is moving, it will take almost a decade before all six Scorpenes enter service. And then India will have about a dozen submarines (including nuclear ones under construction). China will have more than 60 ships, about 20 percent of which are nuclear.
