The United States is poised to break into the Indian market for dual-use weapons and technology. India's challenging geopolitical situation gives Washington hope that efforts to promote defense cooperation will be crowned with success.
During his visit to Mumbai, US President Barack Obama announced the possibility of lifting all restrictions on the export of dual-use products and technologies to India. The message, carefully wrapped in intra-American talk about outsourcing in the IT industry, bears an important indication of the intensification of previously extremely limited US-Indian military-technical contacts, especially against the backdrop of previous Soviet and European successes. as well as the current Russian presence.
MUTUAL INTEREST
Many analysts associate the activation of the United States in the Indian direction, in addition to a number of purely economic issues, with the task of global opposition to China's hegemony in Asia and the Pacific. Delhi in this sense is a promising partner.
Beijing has long been guided by a strategy in the Indian Ocean region that bears the poetic name of a string of pearls. Its essence is in encircling India's zone of influence with a chain of reliable allies and, ideally, military facilities. The last steps of the Celestial Empire in the course of implementing this strategy are the expansion of its presence in Pakistani Kashmir and the construction of a transport infrastructure there to western China, as well as the creation of a naval base in Gwadar. At the same time, the PRC plans to deploy its tracking station in the Maldives (judging by a number of reports, a port capable of receiving nuclear boats with ballistic missiles may appear there), is building electronic reconnaissance stations and creating elements of port infrastructure in Burma and Sri Lanka. The countries of East Africa (traditional economic partners of Delhi) are already experiencing some pressure from the Chinese capital.
Under these conditions, Washington behaves like an experienced fisherman, carefully hooking the pecking fish. India has absolutely no intention of becoming a key element of the "anti-China front", whose contours have recently become more and more pronounced on the maps of South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a result of a series of meetings, deals and contacts of high-ranking State Department officials. However, Delhi cannot ignore the slow and methodical advance of the Celestial Empire in its vital spheres of influence, and the idea of using American leverage to counter this offensive looks extremely attractive. In addition, the sharply deteriorating relations between the United States and Washington's traditional ally Pakistan, which, incidentally, is one of Beijing's close friends, contribute to this.
The total volume of deals concluded during President Obama's visit reached $ 10 billion. They are based on agreements on the supply of civil and military transport aircraft manufactured by the Boeing Corporation to India. Under the first item, 33 passenger Boeing-737s are being purchased. In the second, 10 C-17 Globemaster III transports with the prospect of acquiring 6 more vehicles. There is also a rather interesting contract for 800 million dollars, under which India will receive more than a hundred of the latest F141 turbojet engines from General Electric (they are installed on the F / A-18E / F Super Hornet fighters).
The Americans are also active in a number of other areas of cooperation with Delhi, traditionally associated with "dual-use" technologies. Thus, the Group of Nuclear Suppliers gave permission for the transfer of nuclear materials and technologies to India, which opened up a market for the construction of nuclear power plants that is fantastic in terms of capacity. Apart from the Russian Rosatom and the French AREVA, the Japanese-American alliances GE-Hitachi and Toshiba-Westinghouse intend to take a fair share in this market. As far as can be judged, the military-technical rapprochement between Delhi and Washington, inevitable for a number of reasons, accelerated also thanks to the decision to allow Indians to advance achievements in the nuclear fuel cycle in exchange for preferences to American contractors.
BACKGROUND OF FRIENDSHIP
A very important task looms ahead of the Indian military department. For the third year, the fate of the tender for a multi-role tactical fighter for the country's air force (MMRCA program - Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) is being decided, during which a replacement for the outdated MiG-21 is to be found. Several hundred of these machines still remain in service with the Indian aviation. According to the current government decree, 126 modern aircraft must be purchased through a competition, which will cover the need for a multifunctional front-line fighter. This is the largest contract for the supply of fighters in the world in the past 20 years, and it is receiving increased attention.
Several aircraft manufacturers claim such a tasty morsel at once. First, the French concern "Dassault", which tried to push Mirage 2000-5 into India, and when it failed - Rafale (the Indian military also transparently hinted at its low chances, but "Dassault" is distinguished by a certain amount of healthy stubbornness in such matters) … Secondly, the Swedish "Saab" with the JAS-39 Gripen NG / IN, which is famous mainly for the fact that it has successfully replaced the Soviet MiG-29 of early modifications in the Czech Republic and Hungary, is no less a participant on duty in such competitions. And, finally, the main contenders: Russia with the MiG-35, the pan-European EADS with the Eurofighter Typhoon and the United States, from which Lockheed offers the F-16 Block 70, and Boeing the same F / A-18E / F Super Hornet, whose engines India has just purchased.
Recently, the American side has regularly "spud" the Indian Ministry of Defense on joining the JSF program and purchasing promising F-35 fighters, but it does not meet with understanding - the project of a "cheap" fifth-generation aircraft is becoming more expensive, and the terms of operational readiness of the first aircraft are again postponed.
SUPPORTED ON OWN FORCES
Obama's promises of a technology transfer have laid on fertile ground. It is not the first year that India has been building its strategy of military-technical cooperation "on the Chinese model": it is rigidly and consistently reducing the volume of purchased military equipment, preferring to deploy licensed production, as well as to develop its own industry relying on imported technologies.
This line was chosen during the reign of Indira Gandhi. It all started with the release of MiG-21FL fighters, which started in 1966. And by the end of the 80s, the USSR had launched industrial facilities in India for the assembly of T-72M1 tanks and MiG-27ML fighter-bombers. Similar schemes were used in relation to Delhi's western partners: in different years, the Indians manufactured under license the Franco-British SEPECAT Jaguar fighter-bombers, the German Do.228 transport aircraft of the Dornier company, French helicopters and a number of small arms models.
Now Indian factories are assembling Su-30MKI fighters in the same way and transferring the first batches of T-90S tanks to their army. And here there is not only "screwdriver assembly". The level of production goes down along the key elements of the technological chain: for example, since 2007, RD-33 engines have been assembled in India for the MiG-29 family of fighters, which includes the already mentioned MiG-35. It can be assumed with some caution that we will soon see the start of a completely legal production of the Indian version of the F141 jet engines that the United States intends to supply to India "in a box" today. Indeed, for the MMRCA competition, the requirement was chosen to increase the number of orders placed at Indian enterprises to 50% (usually this figure did not exceed 30%).
HOW TO TAKE YOUR OWN?
In these conditions, the Russian defense industry is trying to "get out", moving from the much-desired supplies of finished products (and given the financial capabilities of Delhi, the bill here could potentially go up to tens of billions of dollars) to engineering, maintenance and repair services, the supply of components and spare parts, as well as consultations on the deployment of new military production in India.
Many experts point out that the “licensed assembly - technology transfer” chain is flawed, since in the end the supplier creates a highly developed defense industry for a potential client with his own hands, which will make weapons purchases unnecessary. A similar plot is now developing in the military-technical cooperation between Russia and China: the latter is actively trying to shift the main emphasis on joint R&D (in fact, on strengthening the withdrawal of advanced Russian technologies for the needs of the Chinese military-industrial complex).
However, on the one hand, there is little choice here: if you want to be present in one of the largest arms markets in the world, you will have to play by local rules. Or finding another equally generous client, which is unlikely. On the other hand, one should also take into account the far from the richest military-industrial lobby in Russia, which at the level of final executors is interested in preserving the financial flow (albeit short-term) from close international contacts, at least in the form of consultations and technology transfer.
A compromise will have to be found in this logic. For example, the localization of part of the production of key components (in particular, RD-33 engines) suitable for Russian MiG-35s, which claim to win the competition for a multipurpose fighter, firstly, can help load domestic enterprises with a potentially largest export order for military aircraft. and secondly, it meets the internal task of developing the Indian defense industry and intensifying technological transfer.
Apparently, it is the search for such points of cooperation that is the most productive for Russia and India in the conditions when Washington is interested in Delhi as a counterbalance to Beijing in the Eurasian space, and the lifting of sanctions opens the Indian subcontinent markets for American arms manufacturers.
