Over the past decades, the United States has managed to build a large, developed and echeloned strategic missile defense system necessary to protect against ballistic missiles of a potential adversary. Realizing the limited capabilities of its missile defense system in its current form and observing the development of foreign means of attack, the United States continues to build and modernize defense systems.
Defense echelons
Currently, the US strategic missile defense system consists of four main components designed to solve different problems. The ABM Agency is in charge of ground-based GBM systems, land / sea systems Aegis BMD, as well as land THAAD and Patriot PAC-3. The latter complex was created to combat operational-tactical missiles, while the other three must destroy missiles of all other classes with a greater firing range.
The largest US missile defense system is the GBM (Ground-Based Midcourse Defense) complex. It includes launchers at two West Coast bases, as well as various radars, satellites, etc. GBM surveillance equipment provides coverage equivalent to 15 time zones. Currently, 44 GBI missiles with EKV kinetic interceptors are on duty at two bases.
Complexes of the Aegis family play an important role in missile defense. First of all, these are the Aegis BMD ship systems. Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Arleigh Burke destroyers carry the necessary radar and electronic equipment, as well as SM-3 interceptor missiles. Currently, about 33-35 ships have such capabilities.
The construction of the land version of the Aegis BMD - the Aegis Ashore complexes - continues. The first such facility began operations in Romania in 2016. About two years later, a complex was commissioned in Poland. Construction of two complexes has begun in Japan. It should be recalled that the deployment of Aegis Ashore has been a source of constant controversy in the international arena.
Since the end of the last decade, the deployment of the THAAD ground complex with a kinetic intercept missile has continued. To date, about a dozen batteries of this system have been put on duty. They are deployed both at US overseas bases and on the territory of third countries. A few weeks ago, another THAAD battery went on duty in Romania - during the repair and modernization of the existing Aegis Ashore complex.
The ABM Agency also deals with the deployment and use of the Patriot air defense system of the PAC-3 modification, capable of intercepting operational-tactical missiles. The US Army has more than 400-450 of these complexes located at different bases. Also "Patriots" of the latest version serve in foreign armies, and cooperation in the field of missile defense is not ruled out.
Near future
The ABM Agency has already announced its plans for the coming years. So far, it is planned to modernize the existing complexes and increase their number. At the same time, the development of improved products of one type or another for subsequent adoption into service will continue.
According to the document Missile Defense Review 2019, it is planned to increase the number of GBI missiles on duty. As part of the GBM complex in Alaska, 20 new launchers for such antimissiles will appear in the coming years. Until recently, the GBM complex was planned to be updated with the help of the promising kinetic interceptor RKV, but in early June it became known about the termination of this project. The command intends to study the available possibilities and find an alternative to the EKV and RKV products.
In 2015, a fundamental decision was made to gradually strengthen the maritime component of the strategic missile defense. Over the next three decades, until the mid-forties, it is proposed to increase the number of ships with the Aegis BMD system, capable of carrying watch and intercepting enemy missiles. In 2043-45. their number should reach the level of 80-100 units.
In parallel, the SM-3 interceptor missiles will be modernized. The SM-3 Block IIA product is currently under development. By the end of 2020, the ABM Agency plans to test such an anti-missile missile with the destruction of a simulated ICBM target. The deployment of such weapons is scheduled for 2022-23. It should be expected that in the distant future - by the mid-forties - other versions of the SM-3 or even fundamentally new weapons of a similar purpose will be created.
Plans for the Aegis Ashore complexes are related to the construction of new facilities and the modernization of existing ones. So, a few weeks ago, the renovation of the complex at the Romanian base of Deveselu started. The required work will take several months and the improved Aegis Ashore will soon be back to work. The construction of two complexes near the Japanese cities of Akita and Hagi has also started. These systems will become operational in 2023-25.
It should be noted that the updates and upgrades of the Aegis Ashor complexes are directly related to the development of the basic shipborne version of the Aegis BMD. In the course of future repairs and updates, ground complexes will receive equipment and weapons created for ship systems.
Plans for the development of THAAD complexes are directly related to the promising THAAD-ER project, which proposes the creation of a new interceptor missile. Its development began last year, and the first results should appear in 2022-23. Due to the growth of the main characteristics of the anti-missile, it is planned to ensure an effective interception of ballistic missiles and hypersonic strike systems.
In parallel, plans are being made to deploy new batteries at various bases. Also, the United States brought the THAAD complex to the international arms market and has already received the first orders. In 2017, a contract was signed for the supply of seven batteries to Saudi Arabia. Since 2013, negotiations have continued with Oman. A little later, information appeared about a possible purchase of THAAD by Japan and Taiwan. However, contracts with eastern countries have not yet been signed, although they are expected in the near future.
Modernization results
The ABM Agency is planning an ongoing and comprehensive modernization of all available missile defense systems. It is proposed to carry out it both by increasing the quantity and by increasing the quality. In addition, an important contribution to the development of missile defense is made by attracting third countries to deploy American facilities or selling ready-made systems to them.
It should be noted that the Agency's current plans for missile defense do not provide for a radical restructuring of the existing missile defense or the introduction of fundamentally new models. The system architecture and its main components will remain the same. At the same time, more GBI missiles will be on duty, the number of ships with Aegis BMDs will increase in the seas, etc.
As a result of the implementation of all current plans, the US strategic missile defense will become more numerous and increase its characteristics. In addition, the American systems will be complemented by exported models supplied to service in third countries. It is expected that this will increase the overall combat capability of the system and, as a result, have a positive impact on national security.
However, the American missile defense system - both in its current form and that has undergone all the planned upgrades - should not be overestimated. It still retains a number of inherent problems that prevent all the desired results from being obtained. American specialists will have to seriously work on pressing issues.
The issues of timely detection and tracking of launching missiles of a potential enemy are still not fully resolved. The existing network of radar stations and reconnaissance satellites may not meet modern requirements. In recent years, the American missile defense system has had to keep an eye on not only "traditional" potential adversaries, but also a number of other countries in different parts of Eurasia, which makes new demands on the general intelligence system.
Problems also persist with the overall effectiveness of missile defense. According to calculations, for guaranteed destruction of an adversary's ICBM, at least two interceptor missiles of one type or another are required. Thus, the entire interceptor grouping is capable of intercepting only a limited number of ICBMs or warheads. Because of this, the US missile defense system at the moment can cope with the threat in the form of missiles from the DPRK or Iran, but a massive strike from China or Russia will break through the defenses and lead to certain consequences.
Apparently, the ABM Agency and the Pentagon are well aware of this and are taking the necessary measures. Construction of new missile defense facilities continues and improved weapons are being developed. Plans for the development of individual components of the strategic missile defense are planned for the next several decades, and through their implementation, the United States intends to protect itself from ballistic missiles from third countries. The latter, in turn, need to take this into account and develop their strategic forces in order not to give the potential adversary a decisive advantage in a hypothetical conflict.
