The logical result: the Thai army refused the contract with Ukraine for the supply of Oplot-T tanks. And if this was recognized in Ukraine, then it is a fait accompli. Although for a long time, the Ukrainian media announced all the messages that appeared on this topic as intrigues of external enemies. And Ukraine and Thailand have complete mutual understanding and agreement. You just need to understand the complexity of the situation.
And so it all started with a message on the Interfax Ukraine website with a link to the press service of the plant.
The Kharkiv state-owned enterprise "Malyshev Plant" has repeatedly disrupted the delivery dates under this contract. And Thailand's patience has run out. This was stated by Defense Minister Pravit Wongsumon.
The contract for the supply of the "Oplot" MBT was signed back in 2011. Ukraine has pledged to supply the Thai army with 49 tanks for a total of $ 241 million by the end of 2014. However, the events in Ukraine became a brake on the fulfillment of the contract. The first (and, apparently, the last) 20 cars Ukraine was able to deliver only in 2016. Nothing is known about the fate of the remaining 29. More precisely, it is not known to the general public. More on this below.
Be that as it may, Thailand was really interested in buying tanks that fully meet the requirements of its army. Moreover, the fact that the country agreed to a delay in deliveries is quite indicative. However, today the situation in the world has changed. And the situation in Ukraine too.
The fact is that today the Malyshev Plant is physically incapable of supplying high-quality tanks. In the Ukrainian press there were several reports about the press conference of the director of the information-analytical center "Third Sector" Andrey Zolotarev.
"The Thai tank contract. It took an elementary thing - to turn the ring under the shoulder strap of the turret. There are machines, money from the customer came, but there are no more people who could do the work of the highest precision."
This phrase probably expresses the state of the majority of Ukrainian enterprises. We are accustomed to the fact that "the Ukrainian industry has enormous potential." Deeply hammered into our heads "Ukraine has the most qualified engineering and workforce in the defense industry" puts pressure on the brain. However, the path of Ukraine in defense production is almost the same as that of Russia. But that's what it is - "almost."
Remember the very recent past of our defense enterprises. Yes, it seemed to work. It seems that the frames were saved. And when it was required to dramatically increase production, when the Ministry of Defense began to order equipment and weapons more actively, it turned out that the enterprises for the most part had lost qualified personnel. Indeed, there was almost no one to release new equipment. Remember the attempts to bring retirees back to the factories. Remember the happiness of directors who were able to fulfill the state defense order by the end of the year.
Even today, when many enterprises have revived their vocational schools, when universities are focused on specific orders of enterprises and are working to increase the output of specialists for such enterprises, we feel a shortage of specialists. And we will feel it for more than one year. The main thing was lost. The principle of the continuity of the profession was lost. When a young specialist on arrival at the plant fell into the hands of a mentor. Yes, such that even engineers and designers listened and consulted with him. The young specialist was proud of his profession. And the profession helped him solve all material problems.
For Ukraine today, the option of Russia is not acceptable. Universities and secondary educational institutions are no longer able to quickly solve this problem. When the politically correct took the lead instead of technically competent teachers, teaching potential was lost. To restore it is not a matter of one year. Is it possible? Scientists and designers for the most part have either left for other countries, or "retired" and lagged behind in their knowledge of the present.
It seems to me that specialists from Thailand also saw this problem. Indeed, many times the management of the Kharkov plant motivated their requests to postpone the delivery of tanks by the deterioration of the situation in the ATO zone. The plant allegedly supplied products to the front line. To fight terrorists. But, today, Thailand owns a larger fleet of Oplot tanks than the Ukrainian army. After all, only 10 of these machines have been delivered to the front line for the entire time. 10 versus 20 Thai!
I think that Ukraine's foreign friends also contributed to the preservation of the contract at such a pace of its implementation. More precisely, overseas. American politicians, led by Obama, had a lot of "leverage". And it seems that they have used these "levers" more than once. How else can you explain such a "docility" of the government? No penalties, etc. In business, and selling tanks is primarily a business, such things are punished mercilessly.
And the second fact that speaks in favor of this version is the quick reaction of the Thai Ministry of Defense to the changing political situation inside the United States. While the situation with the elections and the subsequent fuss was not clear, the Ministry of Defense of Thailand peacefully sat on chairs, waiting. But as soon as it became clear that Trump was a fact, and for a long time, the work proceeded at such a pace that even cunning European businessmen were dizzy.
The Thai Army Committee, which is responsible for the procurement of weapons and equipment, quickly decides to cut Ukrainian supplies and search for new suppliers. The Minister of Defense immediately leaves for a visit to China. Note that he does not study price lists for the sale of tanks, but travels to a specific country for a specific purpose. How long does it take just to prepare such a visit?
So what is next? Further, it is generally incredible for the eastern markets. Wongsumon signs a contract for the supply of 28 Chinese VT-4 tanks. Moreover, China is becoming a consultant for Thailand on the investment in tank building and the use of machines! And this means complete control over the market of this country. Ukraine must quickly forget about this country now.
Today on the official website of the "Malyshev Plant" published a sluggish attempt to refute the termination of the contract. Officially, Thailand has not sent any alerts on this matter. So there is hope. So, in theory, the contract is still in force. Moreover, the director of the plant informs about the delivery of a new batch of "Oplots" to receivers from Thailand in the near future.
In fact, even if the contract is fulfilled in some part, Thailand will not lose anything. It is clear that Ukraine will not be able to deliver 29 cars. But let him give out five to ten cars with great tension. In addition to the 20 already available, this is a pretty decent unit. And Chinese tanks will be supplied for other parts. Plus, the help of the Chinese in creating their own tank building.
Thailand in any case perfectly "got out" of the hole into which it was pushed by the Ukrainian contract. But Ukraine can already draw conclusions. And not about Thailand. And about the support of "the whole world with us" and "all civilized mankind." Once again I am convinced of the truth, simple and as old as the world. As long as you are strong and able to strike back, you are respected. Or at least they are afraid.
But as soon as you turn into nothing, they even forget to say hello to you. Who will pay attention to the empty space?
Not a bad "information for thought", it is clear for whom.
