Breaking news: the American strike group is still going to the coast of Iran. Nuclear aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln", escort ships … Unfortunately, there is no data on them, although the composition of the AUG could perfectly clarify the real goals of US politicians. If we are talking about the next projection of force, then we should expect a couple of destroyers "Arlie Burke", perhaps instead of one of them will be the missile cruiser "Ticonderoga". For a long time, the United States has not been launching full-fledged AUG with at least 5-6 escort ships, not to mention the "good old days" when the AUG could have 16-17 pennants. But if the Americans still admit the possibility of real military action, then the escort to Abraham Lincoln should be at least 5 ships of the destroyer class and above.
Of course, such news could not fail to cause very lively discussions at the "VO" and, in the light of the opinions expressed, it would be interesting to compare the potential of the Iranian Air Force with the air group of a single American aircraft carrier. Could Abraham Lincoln pose any serious threat to Iran, or is it just a paper tiger?
"Abraham Lincoln" in person
Iranian Air Force: a short and sad story
Until 1979, the Iranians were doing well with the Iranian Air Force - the Americans took patronage over them, providing the country's air forces with very sophisticated materiel, including the F-14A Tomcat heavy fighters (in fact, interceptors that can be considered the American counterpart of our MiG -25 and MiG-31), multipurpose F-4D / E "Phantoms" and light F-5E / F "Tiger". Thus, the Iranian Air Force was armed with a modern and effective line of tactical aircraft, and in addition, the United States also supplied them with P-3F Orion base patrol aircraft, C-130H Hercules military transport aircraft, transport and transport refueling aircraft. based on Boeing 707 and 747. In addition, apparently, the United States provided assistance in the training of pilots of this aircraft.
However, then the Islamic revolution came, and everything flew into tar-tarars. The Americans were quite in favor of the Shah of Iran, but still did not dare to defend him by force of arms, since the latter was too obviously violating human rights - in fact, in those years, the opposition to the Shah did not have any such rights at all. But, of course, no one in the United States would have thought of being "friends" with the Islamist revolutionaries, so Iran immediately fell under American sanctions.
The result was the following. Iran still possessed a significant fleet of American aviation, but, not having a somewhat developed aircraft industry, it could not, of course, provide this fleet with the necessary spare parts and qualified repairs. He also could not replenish the stocks of anti-aircraft missiles, buying them from the United States. And besides, as you know, Air Force pilots are the elite of the armed forces, and many of them were loyal to the Shah. Others held high positions under him - and this, alas, was enough for the victorious revolutionaries to consider the Air Force "politically unreliable" and staged a "big purge", thereby depriving themselves of a significant number of well-trained pilots. And, alas, there was nowhere to take the new ones.
Thus, by the beginning of the Iranian-Iraqi war, which lasted from 1980 to 1988 and became the only major conflict in which Iranian pilots participated, the country's air force met the victorious Islamic revolution far from being in the best condition. They still had several hundred combat aircraft at their disposal, but there was nowhere to repair and maintain them, and there was not enough pilots.
The result was the following. During the hostilities, the Iranian Air Force demonstrated a noticeable superiority over the Iraqi rival: the Iranians were better at air operations, and losses in air battles were significantly lower than the Iraqi ones. But with all this, the Iranians did not manage to defeat the Iraqi Air Force and ensure air supremacy, and then non-combat losses quickly began to affect: for example, by the beginning of 1983, the share of combat-ready aircraft hardly exceeded 25% of their fleet. The rest required repairs, or were "cannibalized" for parts.
Thus, by the end of 1988, the Iranian Air Force was literally "at a broken trough" - no aircraft, no pilot training system, no spare parts, no aircraft weapons - nothing. It is clear that this situation was unacceptable.
In 1990, Iran purchased from the USSR 12 Su-24MK, 18 MiG-29 and 6 MiG-29UB, in addition, a certain amount of F-7M, which is a Chinese clone of the MiG-21, was purchased from China. But then the Iranians received literally a royal gift: during the "Desert Storm" a significant part of the Iraqi Air Force, in order to avoid the destruction of the multinational forces by aviation, flew to Iranian airfields.
The Iranians did not return these aircraft, preferring to consider them an unexpected, but no less pleasant reparation for the Iran-Iraq war. True, the question remains as to whether Iran has trained pilots for these aircraft.
The current state of the Iranian Air Force
It is rather difficult to judge him, because, firstly, the numbers of aircraft at the disposal of the Air Force are somewhat different, and secondly, it is unclear which of them can take off and fight, and which exist only "for show" and today day incapable of combat. According to Colonel A. Rebrov's estimates, the share of Iran's combat-ready aircraft is:
1. F-14A Tomcat - 40%.
2. 4D / E "Phantom" - 50%.
3. F-5E / F Tiger - 60%.
The colonel does not say this directly, but based on the other figures he cites, it is most likely that Soviet and Chinese aircraft are in the best technical condition and have about 80% of the total combat readiness, which, generally speaking, is a good indicator for any country.
Based on the foregoing, we will try to determine the number of combat-ready aircraft of the Iranian Air Force
Fighter aircraft
F-14A "Tomcat" - 24 units. In total, there are, according to various sources, from 55 to 65 cars, the author took the average for the calculation - 60 cars.
MiG-29A / U / UB - 29 units. Their total number is 36, but this raises many questions. The fact is that Iran bought only 24 aircraft from the USSR, and 12 "flew" to it from Iraq - today all these aircraft are either 30 years old or have exceeded this age. As you know, today in the Russian Federation there are practically no MiG-29s of the early series, all of them have exhausted their resource, and, to tell the truth, they are hardly served better in Iran. In addition, the MiG-29A, generally speaking, was a very demanding machine for aircraft technicians, it needed up to 80 man-hours of inter-flight service for 1 hour of flight time (usually this figure ranges from 30 to 50 man-hours). In general, the author of this article has an assumption that either the MiG-29s are now completely incapable of combat, or they still have some amount of resources left, but at the same time there are no trained pilots. The logic is very simple - if the Iranians flew them, then they should have exhausted their resource, and if they did not fly, then they do not have trained pilots for these aircraft.
Dassault Mirage F1 - 5 counts although they are most likely completely incapacitated. Iran has never bought these aircraft, and its 10 aircraft are a "gift" from Iraq. It is unlikely that Iran, having no pilots, no spare parts and nothing at all for the Mirages, and even under the conditions of sanctions, was able to somehow maintain them in a combat-ready state.
HESA Azarakhsh and HESA Saeqeh - 35 units (30 and 5 units, respectively). This is the pride of the Iranian aviation industry, which has mastered the production of analogues of the F-5E / F Tiger fighters.
The Iranians, of course, claim that their counterpart is improved over the prototype. But since the aviation industry of Iran is still only taking the first steps, it can be just as successful to assume that their aircraft are not an improved, but a deteriorated version of a machine that was not bad for its time.
F-7M - 32 units. This is a Chinese copy of the MiG-21, of which Iran currently has 39 units, including combat training. Assuming that 80% of this amount is in the ranks, we get a maximum of 32 units.
And what about the weapons? Well, there is one good news here - the Iranians have purchased from us a certain amount of quite decent short-range air-to-air missile systems P-73. At one time, at the end of the last century, it could deservedly claim the title of the best short-range aircraft. Today, of course, this is far from the most modern, but still formidable weapon in air combat, capable of quite effectively shooting down any air targets.
There is no more good news.
Iran has managed to establish the production of "Fattar" - a short-range airborne missile with an infrared seeker, but what kind of missiles they are and what they can do is, alas, unknown to the author. It is possible, of course, that this is a copy of the R-73, or a product "based on", but this is fortune-telling on coffee grounds, and in any case these missiles will not be better than the R-73. In addition, it is possible that Iran still has a certain number of old Sidewinders.
The Iranians also have medium-range missiles, but which ones? This is, possibly, a certain number of surviving Sparrow and Soviet missiles of the R-27 family. Alas, both of them have long become outdated, and their performance characteristics are thoroughly known to the Americans, so it will not be difficult for them to prepare their own electronic means of countering the means of guiding such missiles. However, the Iranians also have one more, oddly enough, which has no analogues in the world, a medium-range air combat missile.
The fact is that, as you know, the Americans, complete with Tomkats, supplied Iran with a certain amount (according to some sources - 280) of long-range Phoenix air-launched missile systems. Apparently, the stocks of these missiles have long been exhausted, but the Iranians liked the idea. Therefore, they took the air defense missile system "Hawk" and … adapted it for firing with the F-14A, thereby obtaining a very original aircraft missile capable of hitting air targets at a distance of up to 42 km. Of course, one can only admire the ingenuity of the Iranian military industry, and, probably, such a weapon may well be effective against the aviation of any of the Arab countries, but still the Hawk was adopted in 1960 and today the complex as a whole, and his missiles in particular are unconditionally obsolete.
Thus, we see that formally Iranian fighters are very, very numerous: 173 aircraft, of which, probably, 125 are "on the wing". But of them, perhaps only the F-14A Tomcat, on which the Americans taught the Iranians to fly, and which they successfully used in battle, have real combat significance. And also the domestic MiG-29A, if the latter remained "on the wing" and if Iran has pilots trained to fight on them.
Such aircraft, with the most daring assumptions, the Iranians have no more than 55-60 in service, while they are equipped with outdated avionics and weapons (with the exception of the R-73) and, of course, in all respects they lose to deck-based Hornets and Superhornets. " Abraham Lincoln ".
Bomber aviation
Su-24MK - 24 units in the ranks, 30 units in stock. That is, there is a full-fledged air regiment of these aircraft, which are not the easiest to fly, but still very dangerous.
F-4D / E "Phantom" - 32 units. in the ranks, 64 units. in stock.
F-5E / F Tiger - 48 in service, 60 in stock.
Su-25 - 8 units. in service, 10 available.
Here, of course, the question may arise - why are the Phantoms and Tigers attributed not to fighters, but to bombers? I must say that both are quite capable of using air-to-air missile systems, while the Phantoms were "trained" to work with the R-27 and R-73, and the Tigers only with the R-73. Moreover, the radar station "Phantoms" has been improved - the ability to see low-flying targets has been improved.
Nevertheless, the Iranians themselves attributed them to bomber aviation. Perhaps the explanation lies in the fact that both the Phantoms and Tigers are already very old machines, produced before 1979. That is, today they serve for about 40 years or more, and at the same time they did not have the best maintenance. Therefore, it is possible that aircraft of these types, although they can take off and drop a heavier bomb on the enemy, are still incapable of conducting a maneuverable air battle with all its overloads.
We will not consider the entire range of weapons of Iranian bombers, we will only note that Iran was able to organize the production of guided bombs with television and laser seeker, as well as air-to-ground missiles with a range of up to 30 km. But the greatest danger to warships is the S-801 and S-802 anti-ship missiles, created in China.
C-802 in the foreground
The S-802 is a 715 kg subsonic missile equipped with an active radar seeker and a 165 kg warhead. The firing range is 120 km, while on the marching section, the anti-ship missile flies at an altitude of 20-30 m, and in the final section of the trajectory - 5-7 m. in flight from a ship or carrier aircraft. Chinese missiles of this type are also equipped with the GLONASS / GPS satellite navigation subsystem, but whether it is on the Iranian anti-ship missiles is unknown. The Chinese themselves assess the capabilities of the C-802 seeker very highly, believing that the AGSN of these missiles provides a 75% probability of target acquisition even in conditions of electronic countermeasures. Whether this is true or not is unknown, but, most likely, the seeker of this missile is still more perfect than that of the first generation anti-ship missiles. As for the C-801, the predecessor of the C-802, they are structurally similar in many ways, and the main difference lies in the engine: the C-801 does not have a turbojet, but a less efficient solid-fuel engine, which provides a flight range of more than 60 km.
The C-802 anti-ship missile system was created in China in 1989; at present, Iran has mastered the production of its analogue called "Nur". Thus, it can be assumed that the Iranian Air Force does not experience a shortage of missiles of this type. At the same time, both the Su-24MK and the F-4D / E Phantom have the ability to use such missiles.
In addition to the C-802, the X-58 anti-radar missiles can pose a threat to warships - having a mass of 640 kg and a warhead weight of 150 kg. It must be said that the X-58, being put into service back in 1978, has undergone numerous upgrades and therefore retains its relevance to this day, being one of the standard ammunition of the promising Su-57. Unfortunately, it is not known what kind of modification the Iranian Air Force got, but nevertheless, we note that the very first X-58s were already able to aim at the radar, which constantly changes operating frequencies.
Other aviation of Iran
As you know, intelligence and electronic warfare play a huge role today, but with this, alas, Iran is not just bad, but just a black hole. Theoretically, the Iranian Air Force has 2 AWACS aircraft, but, apparently, only one of them is serviceable, and even that is of limited use. Iran does not have electronic warfare aircraft, and, apparently, there are no modern suspended electronic warfare containers either. Of the rest of the aircraft fleet, only five Orion patrol aircraft and six Phantoms, converted into reconnaissance aircraft, are suitable for reconnaissance.
Of course, the list of Iranian Air Force aviation is not limited to this. The Iranian military also has a large number of light training transport and other non-combat aircraft and helicopters, as well as drones for various purposes, including a large number of heavy attack UAVs "Carrar", capable of carrying up to a ton of payload.
Abraham Lincoln Air Group
Unfortunately, it is not known exactly how many combat aircraft are currently on board this American aircraft carrier. It is possible that it carries a standard "reduced" wing of 48 F / A-18E / F "Super Hornet", or earlier F / A-18C "Hornet", as well as 4-5 EA aircraft supporting them. -18G "Growler" and the same number of AWACS E-2C "Hawkeye" aircraft, not counting helicopters and so on. But, if the Pentagon admits the possibility of military action, then the number of combat "Hornets" can easily be increased to 55-60 units.
conclusions
It is known that in the USSR, to destroy the AUG, it was planned to use 2 regiments of missile-carrying aviation, armed with Tu-22 aircraft under the cover of one, but better - two regiments of fighter aviation and support aircraft.
If we consider the capabilities of the Iranian Air Force, we will see that they look quite impressive. In theory, Iran can use not 4, but no less than 6 units equivalent to domestic air regiments to attack the AUG - 3 fighter units on Tomkats, MiG-29A and Iranian clones of Tigers and 3 bomber units on Su-24MK, “Phantoms” and "Tigers". At the same time, the main danger for the American air group will be 55-60 Su-24MK and Phantom aircraft, which the Iranians will be able to equip in the strike version with the C-802 and Nur anti-radar missiles, as well as anti-radar X-58.
Without a doubt, neither the Tomkats, nor the MiG-29 of the first series, are today unable to resist in the air the deck-based Hornets, which operate with the support of AWACS and electronic warfare aircraft. There is nothing to say about "Tigers" and their Iranian "clones". But, considering the option of a possible confrontation, we note that this is not required of them.
In fact, the task of the Iranian Air Force will be to organize an airstrike with the entire mass of its capable aircraft, while the Su-24MK and Phantoms will be “hidden” in the mass of Tigers, MiGs and Tomkats. Let's not forget that it will be quite difficult for American radars to correctly identify these aircraft by type. They, of course, will detect Iranian aircraft and identify them as hostile targets, but it will not be easy to understand where the MiG is and where the Su is. In other words, the American formation may find itself in a situation where it is attacked from several directions by many aircraft, the number of which, again in theory, can reach 200 - the American air defense will simply "choke" with so many targets.
In order to have at least a minimal chance of resisting such a strike, the Americans will have to bring in a maximum of combat aircraft into battle, preferably everything that is. But this will only be possible if Abraham Lincoln completely abandons strike operations and concentrates its air group to repel air attacks. But in this case, the AUG, obviously, will not be able to strike at Iranian territory except with Tomahawk cruise missiles, the ammunition of which on escort ships is very limited. And even if the Americans succeed and they can meet the Iranian Air Force with all their fighters, there will be 3-4 Iranian aircraft for each "super-hornet".
Thus, the numerical strength and performance characteristics of the aircraft and their armament of the Iranian Air Force, in principle, make it possible to defeat a single US AUG. To do this, they should:
1. Disperse the forces of their aviation. This is a classic of air war - on the eve of an enemy strike, remove aircraft from their permanent bases to civilian and military airfields prepared for this in advance.
2. Detect AUG as soon as possible. This task is not easy, but not as difficult as it might seem at first glance, because in order to strike, the US aircraft carrier must approach the Iranian coast from the Arabian Sea, or even poke into the narrowness of the Oman or Persian Gulf. These areas are characterized by very dense shipping, and by deploying a sufficient number of transports or tankers there, as well as establishing patrols with non-military aircraft, it is quite possible to detect AUG. The problem for the Americans will be that in the areas in which they have to operate, there is a very dense "traffic" of civilian ships and aircraft, so it will be extremely difficult to distinguish among them the Iranian intelligence officers.
3. Ideally, wait for an attack by US carrier-based aircraft on an Iranian object.
4. And at that moment, when significant forces of the Abraham Lincoln air wing were diverted to conduct a strike operation, raise the bulk of their aircraft and put all their strength into a single strike on the US AUG.
At the same time, the tasks of Iranian fighters of all types will be, in fact, to clarify the location of the AUG and to divert the "attention" of the American carrier-based aircraft to themselves. Iranian aircraft will be able to accomplish this task, at least at the cost of colossal losses. And then - a strike by anti-ship and anti-radar missiles from the Su-24 and "Phantoms", here it is quite possible to provide a density for 100-120 missiles, which is quite enough to disable an aircraft carrier. In addition, if it is technically possible, it would be nice to release the Carrar drones towards the AUG (specifically to the side) - they, of course, will not cause any harm to the Americans, but they will add an additional number of “targets” by overloading the air defense of the US formations.
So, the first conclusion: technically, the Iranian Air Force has the ability to destroy the AUG, at least at the cost of extremely heavy losses of its own aircraft.
But can they do it in practice? Here the author of this article has big doubts. The fact is that the action described above looks very simple on paper, but in fact it is the most complex operation of the Air Force, which cannot be carried out without extremely serious previous training and the highest professionalism of the pilots. Where can they get them from the Iranian Air Force?
Yes, they have demonstrated good results in the war against Iraq, but they are far from being as high as those achieved in the wars against the Arab countries by the Israeli Air Force. It can be assumed that at that time the Iranian Air Force was somewhere in the middle between the air forces of other Arab countries and Israel in terms of combat training, which means that it was inferior to the US Air Force. But more than 35 years have passed since then, those pilots who fought with the Iraqis, for the most part, are already retired. And could the Iranians, under the sanctions, prepare a worthy replacement for them? Does Iran have enough pilots for all the aircraft it has?
According to some reports, today the Iranians are conducting quite intensive training with forces up to a regiment of attack aircraft, including those with flights at low altitudes and real launches of anti-ship missiles. But maneuvers, in which a concentrated strike by the masses of fighters and bombers against a naval target would be practiced, were not recorded. In other words, if suddenly, by some miracle, Iranian pilots acquired the skill of warriors of naval missile-carrying aviation of the times of the USSR, then the author of this article would not doubt their success. But just where to get a wizard who would create such a miracle?
And from this follows the second conclusion: the Iranians, of course, have the technical ability to defeat a single American AUG, but it is far from the fact that the professionalism of the Iranian pilots and their commanders will allow it to do so. It is quite possible that all that the Iranian Air Force will be enough for in the event of a conflict with the United States is sporadic raids on relatively small groups of aircraft, which the Avraham Lincoln's wing can easily cope with.
Nevertheless, the author believes that the attempt to "punish" Iran with the forces of one aircraft carrier borders on insanity. In order to ensure approximate air parity with the Iranian Air Force, the Americans will need at least two aircraft carriers, three aircraft carriers will provide an advantage, and the Americans will gain overwhelming superiority by concentrating four ships of this class for the operation.
