Just a couple of weeks ago, in the article "Losses of the Ukrainian Air Force: On the Brink of Catastrophe," we examined the successes of the LPR and DPR militias in destroying Ukrainian military aircraft. Since then, the fighting has not stopped and the Ukrainian Air Force continues to suffer losses. Consider the latest losses of Ukrainian aviation, incurred since the publication of the previous article.
We will again use the Aviation Safety Network database as our main source of information. Let us recall that the task of this project is to collect and classify information about various aviation accidents around the world. Two databases operate within the framework of the project: the main ASN Aviation Safety Database and the auxiliary ASN Aviation Safety WikiBase. The first includes incidents confirmed by several sources, and a team of service editors is responsible for its replenishment. The ASN Aviation Safety WikiBase database is edited and updated by everyone. Some records from it, having passed the check, fall into the main one.
Admittedly, the last two weeks have been relatively successful for the Ukrainian Air Force. Over the past few days, the main ASN Aviation Safety Database has been replenished with only one entry. On July 14, near the village of Izvarino (LPR), an An-26 military transport aircraft, tail number 19 blue, was shot down. The crew of eight escaped, but some of the pilots were captured by the militia. According to official Ukrainian data, the plane flew at an altitude of 6,500 meters and was hit by an anti-aircraft missile. The type of anti-aircraft system that shot down the plane remains unknown. Probably it was the Buk air defense missile system at the disposal of the militia. At the same time, there are no certificates confirming the flight at the indicated altitude.
It is noteworthy that the record of the downed An-26 first appeared in the ASN Aviation Safety WikiBase and later, after a corresponding check, was entered into the ASN Aviation Safety Database. It should also be noted that since the publication of the previous article, only one entry has appeared in both databases of the Aviation Safety Network. In both cases, this is the destruction of the transport An-26. There are no other incidents in the database.
However, the militias of the unrecognized republics report other cases of the destruction of enemy aircraft. For example, on July 11, the press service of the Luhansk People's Republic announced the destruction of the Su-25 attack aircraft. On the same day, the militia of the Donetsk People's Republic over the city of Dzerzhinsk shot down another Ukrainian attack aircraft. On July 14, two Su-25 aircraft were shot down over the village of Gorlovka. However, in all these cases, there was no acceptable evidence. For example, both attack aircraft shot down over Horlivka fell on the territory occupied by the Ukrainian armed forces, which is why the militias were unable to provide photographic and video materials testifying to their successes.
On 7 July, the militia scored a notable aviation victory. According to the Minister of Defense of the LPR Igor Plotnitsky, on that day, the Su-25 attack aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force, damaged by fire from the ground, made an emergency landing at one of the airfields of the Luhansk republic. The Ukrainian pilot surrendered to the militia, and the plane became a trophy. Thanks to this, the unrecognized republics got their first combat aircraft. The attack aircraft was quickly restored. On July 11, the first combat flight of the first attack aircraft of the LPR took place. Su-25 struck at the positions of the Ukrainian troops near the city of Aleksandrovsk.
A few hours after the fall of the An-26 aircraft, the leadership of the "anti-terrorist operation" was forced to issue a new order. In connection with the "crash of the An-26 military transport aircraft," aviation flights were suspended until further notice. Such an order can be considered a major victory for the militia. The fighters of the LPR and DPR, who did not have good weapons and equipment, managed to inflict such heavy damage on the enemy that he was forced to “withdraw from the game” not a separate unit, but a whole branch of the armed forces, even if temporarily. The lack of air support can seriously affect the combat effectiveness of the ground units of the armed forces and the National Guard of Ukraine.
In the context of the temporary cessation of military aviation flights, it is necessary to recall the calculations made in the previous article. According to the data available at that time, the Ukrainian Air Force had only 10 helicopters and no more than 30-35 aircraft of all types capable of performing their tasks. Even if the repair factories succeed in returning the damaged equipment to service relatively quickly, the total number of aircraft and helicopters will remain at an unacceptably low level.
The lack of technology can be considered one of the main reasons for the announced suspension of flights. Also, the Ukrainian Air Force may experience a serious shortage of experienced pilots. This factor can be aggravated by the fact that some of the pilots have already died or taken prisoner. It is unlikely that such a fate of pilots can be a good motivation for their colleagues. In addition, representatives of the DPR express a different version related to money. The publication "Vzglyad" quotes the words of the Deputy Prime Minister of the Donetsk Republic Andrei Purgin. In his opinion, it is difficult for the Kiev authorities to find pilots willing to participate in the "anti-terrorist operation." Even promises of large monetary rewards do not help.
Another possible reason for the appearance of an order to terminate flights may be associated not only with a small amount of equipment and insufficient number of flight personnel, but also with tactical issues. It is not the first month that the DPR and LPR militias have been successfully opposing Ukrainian aviation, using various barrel and missile systems. Since the end of April, two dozen aircraft and helicopters of various types have been seriously damaged or destroyed, which shows the level of weapons and training of the militia.
To reduce losses, the aviation of Ukraine must plan its actions taking into account the situation in the battle area and the enemy's weapons. Judging by the events of recent months, the tactics of the actions of the Ukrainian Air Force, if changed, did not change significantly, and also did not take into account the appearance of anti-aircraft weapons in the militia. It is possible that the Ukrainian command finally realized the threat posed by the weapons available to the militia, and began to study the situation, as well as create new tactics.
The Ukrainian Air Force at any time can be again involved in the performance of combat missions within the framework of the "anti-terrorist operation". Pilots can receive new instructions and begin to fly combat missions taking into account the real situation. Nevertheless, even in this case, the situation of the Ukrainian military aviation remains unenviable - in fact, a real no-fly zone has appeared on the territory of the LPR and DPR, in which all flights are currently terminated, and further flights will be associated with great risk. The events of recent days, the appearance of its own aircraft at the LPR and the successful use of the Buk air defense missile system again allows us to draw the same conclusion as in the previous article: the militias are able not only to seriously complicate the situation of the Ukrainian military aviation, but also to completely destroy the fleet of equipment, still capable of performing combat missions.
