Cheap oil is a factor of peace in Transcaucasia
The Armed Forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan were formed during the Karabakh conflict. Baku lost not only almost the entire NKR, but also significant territories beyond that. For two decades, Azerbaijan has been preparing for a new war for Karabakh.
Since the Armenian side has the advantage of the defender in well-fortified and equipped positions, the attacker needs to achieve significant superiority in strength to count on victory. Therefore, the country is carrying out massive purchases of military equipment in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Israel, Turkey, South Africa. In fact, its own defense industry complex was created from scratch, which is engaged in licensed assembly of armored vehicles and MLRS, and the production of small arms.
On the ground
Ground forces in the main territory of Azerbaijan include four army corps: 1st (headquarters in the city of Barda), 2nd (Beylagan), 3rd (Shamkir), 4th (Baku). They include 130, 161, 171, 172, 181, 190, 193, 701st (aka 1st), 702nd (2nd), 703rd (3rd), 706th (6th), 707th (7th), 708th (8th), 712th (12th), 888th motorized rifle, 191st mountain rifle brigade, 777th special forces regiment. In the enclave Nakhichevan Autonomous Region, a Special Separate Combined Arms Army is deployed as part of three motorized rifle brigades.
In service there are 12 launchers TR "Tochka". The tank fleet includes 100 of the latest Russian T-90S and 379 T-72s. 98 obsolete T-55s were decommissioned, their further fate is unclear. Azerbaijan is closely cooperating in the military sphere with Israel, so it is likely that the Azerbaijani T-55s will turn into heavy infantry fighting vehicles such as the Israeli "Akhzarit". There are 88 BRDM-2, 20 BMD-1, 63 BMP-1 and 21 BRM-1, 186 BMP-2, 101 BMP-3. The number of armored personnel carriers and armored vehicles is approaching a thousand - 3 Ukrainian BTR-3U (Azerbaijan refused further purchases), 40 BTR-60, from 179 to 239 BTR-70, 33 BTR-80 and 70 BTR-80A, 11 BTR-D, 55 South African "Matador" and 85 "Marauder" (produced under license in Azerbaijan itself), at least 35 Turkish "Cobra", 393 MTLB. More than half of all this equipment is listed not in the Armed Forces, but in the Internal Troops and Border Troops.
The artillery includes more than 150 self-propelled guns - 25 2S9, 18 2S31, 66 2S1, 16 2S3, 18 2S19, 5 Israeli ATMOS-2000, 15 2S7. It is planned to purchase 36 Turkish T-155 self-propelled guns. Towed guns - 199 D-30, 36 M-46, 16 2A36, 24 D-20. Mortars - 400 2B14, 107 PM-38, 85 M-43, 10 Israeli CARDOM. Much attention is paid to the development of rocket artillery, without which successful offensive actions against powerful Armenian fortifications are impossible. There are 44 Soviet MLRS BM-21 and 20 Turkish T-122, 30 Turkish T-107 and 20 TR-300, 18 Russian TOS-1A, 30 Smerch, 6 Israeli multi-caliber Lynx. There are 10 Ukrainian ATGM "Skif", 100 Russian "Kornet", 150 Soviet "Baby", 100 "Fagot", 20 "Konkurs", 10 "Metis". Anti-tank guns: 72 D-44, 72 MT-12.
The military air defense includes 3 battalions of the Buk-M1 air defense system and the Belarusian Buk-MB (18 launchers), a division of the Israeli Barak-8 air defense system (9 launchers) and the obsolete Soviet Krug air defense system (27 launchers), 150 air defense systems short-range (80 "Wasp", 8 Belarusian-Ukrainian "Tetrahedrons", 54 "Strela-10", 8 newest "Tor"), 300 MANPADS "Igla" and 18 "Strela-3", 40 ZSU-23-4 " Shilka ".
In the sky
The Air Force includes the 843rd mixed aviation regiment (VVB "Kala"), 416th fighter-bomber (Kurdamir), 408th fighter (Zeynalabdin-Nasosny), 422nd reconnaissance (Dallar), 115th training (Sangachaly) and transport (Zeynalabdin-Pump) squadron. In service with up to 5 Su-24 bombers, 33 Su-25 attack aircraft (including 4 combat training Su-25UB) and up to 5 Su-17 (1 Su-17U), 15 MiG-29 fighters (2 UB) and up to 4 MiG-21 (1 more in storage), 32 MiG-25 interceptors. Only the MiG-29 and Su-25 are relatively modern, 6 MiG-25PD interceptors and 4 MiG-25RB reconnaissance aircraft have been modernized. The combat effectiveness of the remaining aircraft is questionable. Probably all Su-24, Su-17, MiG-21 and most MiG-25s have been withdrawn from the Air Force with no chance of returning. The Air Force includes 2 transport Il-76 (1 more in storage), up to 23 training L-39, more than 50 combat (27 Mi-24, 24 newest Mi-35M) and about 100 multipurpose and transport helicopters (up to 82 Mi-17 and Mi-8, 7 Mi-2, 6 Ka-27 and Ka-32).
Ground-based air defense includes 2 divisions of S-300PMU2 air defense systems (16 launchers), 1 division of S-200 air defense systems (4 launchers), up to 13 divisions (54 launchers) of C-125 air defense systems.
And at sea
The Azerbaijani Navy consists of ships and boats inherited from the Soviet Caspian Flotilla, supplemented by Turkish and American patrol boats. The largest is the extremely outdated Project 159A patrol (frigate). The entire fleet is very outdated, does not have any missile weapons, therefore, at the moment it is the weakest in the Caspian (for more details - "Museum on the High Seas"). Perhaps the construction of 6 patrol ships according to the Israeli project OPV-62, which will be equipped with the universal Spike-NLOS missiles, will partially change the situation.
But in general, from the point of view of the quantity and quality of military equipment, the pace of its renewal, Azerbaijan clearly seeks to enter the top three in the post-Soviet space. However, Baku's plans in the field of military construction may change dramatically due to the fall in oil prices.
From junior to senior
It is more than obvious that the Karabakh problem is not resolved peacefully because of the mutually exclusive positions of the parties. At the same time, the existing status quo suits everyone except Azerbaijan. It is extremely difficult to assume that he spends such significant funds on strengthening the Armed Forces for something other than changing the situation by military means. Moreover, the purchased equipment (tanks T-90, self-propelled guns "Msta", MLRS "Smerch" and TOS-1A) is clearly intended for breaking into the Armenian defense in Karabakh. The question is at what point in Baku they will decide that they have achieved decisive superiority, and to what extent this assessment will be adequate.
Russia in this case finds itself in a delicate position: it was she who sold all offensive weapons to Azerbaijan. It is difficult to assume that Moscow did not understand what this equipment was intended for - against our closest ally in the CSTO. The situation becomes doubly difficult because many years of strange flirting with Ankara (Baku's main ally) ended in the expected failure and tough confrontation. In this regard, a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan can very easily develop into an armed confrontation between "senior comrades" - Russia and Turkey. Moreover, there remains a significant likelihood of their direct military clash over Syria.
The peculiarity of the situation is that the “elders” do not border on their “junior” allies, but they border on the “junior” opponents: Russia with Azerbaijan, Turkey with Armenia. And there is a far from zero probability that the domestic equipment we sold to Baku will fight not only against our closest ally, but also against the Russian army.
If a war breaks out between Russia and Turkey, which will involve Armenia as well, there will be a strong temptation in Baku to strike from the north on Karabakh, taking advantage of the fact that the Armenian Armed Forces are fully involved in the Turkish front. However, in this case, Azerbaijan itself has a chance to receive a blow from the north, from Russia. Moreover, there is a significant likelihood that Iran will not only sympathize with the Russian-Armenian coalition, but also fight directly on its side. Then Azerbaijan will also get from the south, which will make it zero chances not only for victory, but also for survival. Because of this, Baku will first observe the development of the situation at the front, and if it begins to develop against Turkey's favor, they will refrain from participating in the war. However, in this case, Azerbaijan can forget about Karabakh at least - for decades, at most - forever.
