In the event of a conflict between Russia and Turkey, Armenia is at the forefront
The Armed Forces of Armenia today have the highest level of combat and moral-psychological training of personnel among the three armies of the Transcaucasian countries, but they are the smallest in terms of the number of military equipment. True, the latter applies only to the "official" Armed Forces. The army of Nagorno-Karabakh is integrated with the Armenian army, while its exact size seems to be unknown.
The Armed Forces of Armenia were formed in the war for Karabakh. Since then, however, the landlocked country that does not border Russia has remained in a transport blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey. There is almost no transit through Georgia either. As a result, the bulk of cargo from the main ally - Russia - goes in a roundabout way through Iran. The support of the Shiite state for Orthodox Armenia looks somewhat paradoxical. This is explained by the fact that Azerbaijan's main ally, Turkey, is Iran's main geopolitical adversary in the region.
Enemies all around
Armenia is a member of the CSTO and formally sent a company to the CRRF. However, due to the above-mentioned peculiarities of the geographical location, Yerevan cannot take real participation in the activities of the organization. The actual connection with the CSTO is carried out by the Russian 102nd military base.
The ground forces of Armenia include five army corps.
The 1st AK (headquarters in the city of Goris) includes the 2nd motorized rifle brigade (Goris, part of the units are stationed in Karakhanbeyli, in the controlled territory of Azerbaijan), 522th (Sisian) and 539th (Agarak) motorized rifle regiments, tank, reconnaissance, MTO battalions.
2nd AK (Karchakhbyur) - 555th motorized rifle regiment, tank and reconnaissance battalions, artillery battalion.
3rd AK (Vanadzor) - 3rd (Vanadzor), 246th (Ijevan), 543rd (Noyamberian) and 549th (Chambarak) motorized rifle regiments, tank, communications, MTO and reconnaissance battalions, rocket and artillery divisions.
4th AK (Yeghegnadzor) - 527th motorized rifle regiment (Vaik), self-propelled artillery battalion, communications battalion.
5th AK (Nubarashen) - 9th fortified area, 4th (Yerevan) and 545th (Nurabashen) motorized rifle regiments.
In addition, the ground forces include the 535th training (Berd), 23rd special forces, missile, artillery, anti-aircraft missile, radio technical brigades, motorized rifle, self-propelled artillery, anti-tank artillery, 531 anti-aircraft missile, communications, engineering sapper, MTO regiments, as well as the 7th fortified area (Gyumri). On the territory of the NKR and adjacent Azerbaijani regions under Armenian control, apart from the units of the 2nd MSBR, the 83rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (Dashkesan) and the 538th Motorized Rifle Regiment (Aghdaban) are stationed.
In service with 8 PU OTR R-17 (32 missiles), at least 2 PU "Tochka". The tank park consists of 137 T-72s and 8 T-55s. There are 120 BRDM-2, 12 BRM-1K, 10 BMD-1, 159 BMP-1 and 8 BMP-1K, 5 BMP-2, as well as more than 200 armored personnel carriers - 6 BTR-152, 19 BTR-60, 54 BTR- 70, 114 BTR-80, up to 40 MTLB. A significant part of the BRM-1K, BMP-1, BTR-152/60/70 is listed not in the Armed Forces, but in the Interior Ministry's Internal Troops and Border Troops, but in case of war they will be automatically transferred to the Land Forces. Artillery includes 38 self-propelled guns - 10 2S1, 28 2S3, 147 towed guns - 85 D-30, 26 2A36, 34 D-20, 2 D-1, about 80 mortars - 19 PM38, up to 62 M-43, 51 MLRS - 47 BM-21, 4 WM-80 (Armenia is the only country besides China itself that has this MLRS in service). In the near future, the Smerch and TOS-1A MLRS will be purchased in Russia.
In service is from 9 to 20 ATGM "Baby", 12 "Fagots", 10 "Competitions", 27 self-propelled "Shturm-S", 71 anti-tank guns - 35 D-44, 36 MT-12. The military air defense system has from 6 to 9 Osa air defense systems, 48 Strela-10, 30 Strela-1, up to 200 Strela-2 and 90 Igla MANPADS, 48 Shilka air defense systems. There is an agreement with Russia on the supply of additional Igla-S MANPADS.
The Armenian Air Force and Air Defense have three air bases ("Gyumri", "Arzni", "Erebuni"), one squadron, the 96th anti-aircraft missile brigade, and two anti-aircraft missile regiments. In service there are 15 Su-25 attack aircraft (including 2 combat training Su-25UB) and, possibly, 1 MiG-25PD interceptor. Transport aircraft: 3 Il-76, 3-6 An-2 and, possibly, one An-24 and An-32 each. Training: 6 L-39, 10-14 Yak-52, 1 Yak-55, up to 5 Yak-18T. Attack helicopters: 12 Mi-24 (8 Mi-24V / P, 2 Mi-24RA, 2 Mi-24K). Multipurpose: 11–20 Mi-8/17, 8–9 Mi-2. Helicopters - airborne command post: 2 Mi-9. Ground-based air defense includes 3 divisions (36 launchers) of S-300PT air defense systems and 2 divisions (24 launchers) S-300PS, 1 division of C-75 air defense systems (6 launchers), 5 C-125 divisions (20 launchers), 3 Krug air defense systems (27 PU).
Factor "Karabakh"
The size of the NKR ground forces is known by estimates. Most likely, they include 140 T-72 tanks and up to 34 T-55, 5 BRM-1K, 80 BMP-1, 153 BMP-2, 9 BTR-70, 12 2S1 and 2S3 self-propelled guns, up to 100 M guns -30 and D-30, 16 D-1, approximately 50 D-20 and 2A36 each, 24 MLRS BM-21, at least 6 self-propelled ATGM "Shturm-S" and BRDM-2 with ATGM "Konkurs", not less than 6 SAM "Osa" and ZSU "Shilka", several SAM "Strela-10".
As part of the NKR Air Force and Air Defense (presumably), one division of the S-300PS air defense system and the Cube air defense system, 5-6 batteries (15-18 launchers) of the Krug air defense system, 2 Su-25 attack aircraft, 3 combat Mi-24s and 5 Mi-8. It is likely that a significant part of the above-mentioned divisions of the S-75, S-125 and "Circle" air defense systems of Armenia was transferred to the NKR air defense.
In general, the total potential of the Armed Forces of Armenia and the NKR, taking into account the existing fortifications and high combat qualities of the personnel, so far ensures the repulsion of a possible strike from the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan. However, the trends are unfavorable. Azerbaijan has much higher economic opportunities. It already has overwhelming air superiority, which is so far compensated by the strong ground air defense of Armenia and Karabakh.
Hand of Moscow
On the territory of Armenia (in Gyumri) there is, as mentioned above, the 102nd military base of the RF Armed Forces. It includes the 123rd, 124th, 128th motorized rifle, 992th artillery and 988th anti-aircraft missile regiments, 3624th airbase (at the Erebuni airfield), and other units. In service - about 100 T-72 tanks, about 150 BMP-1/2 and BTR-70/80, 18 2S1 self-propelled guns and D-30 howitzers, 27 BM-37 mortars, 18 BM-21 Grad MLRS and BM-30 "Smerch", 12 self-propelled ATGM "Konkurs" (on BRDM-2) and PTO MT-12, 1 division of SAM S-300V and SAM "Buk-M1", 6 SAM "Strela-10", 6 ZSU "Shilka", 18 MiG-29 fighters (including 2 MiG-29UB), 8 Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters.
Photo: gisher.ru
Throughout almost the entire period of independence, a socio-political discussion has been going on in Armenia over whether the country needs a Russian base and whether it is better to seek support from NATO. The events of the past eight years show that an alliance with Russia provides a rebuff from external aggression, reliance on the North Atlantic Alliance guarantees a complete lack of protection, but for some reason only a few are able to accept the obvious. For Russia, the withdrawal of the 102nd base will be a certain nuisance, for Armenia it will be a disaster.
It is not a fact that the 102nd WB will help defend Karabakh, but it will definitely fight on the side of Yerevan in the event of an attack by Azerbaijan or Turkey on Armenia itself.
Now new geopolitical circumstances have arisen, which, however, should have been expected. Moscow's long-term romance with Ankara ended with the expected breakup. Belief in the Marxist dogma of the primacy of economics over politics did not help. The political interests of Russia and Turkey have always been not just different, but diametrically opposed, which was revealed in Syria. A direct military clash, which could easily go beyond its borders, cannot be ruled out. And if Russia attacks Turkey from its own territory (from the Crimea and the North Caucasus), then the 102nd base, located near the Armenian-Turkish border, will be at the forefront. If Turkey attacks this base first, Armenia will also have to fight, because its territory will undergo aggression. If Ankara does not want to open the northeastern front itself, a difficult dilemma will arise for Moscow and Yerevan - whether to use the 102nd WB and the Armed Forces of Armenia. Even their joint potential is significantly inferior to the Turkish one, but in this case Ankara will have to fight in all azimuths, which will become an extremely serious problem.
Armenia will be opposed by a much stronger adversary in the presence of a threat also from the north - from Azerbaijan. There is a danger of a complete military defeat with the occupation of the entire country and, of course, the irrevocable loss of Karabakh. On the other hand, by directly taking the side of Russia, Yerevan gains a reputation as the only real, and not in words, an ally of Moscow, while at the same time it has a good chance of getting rid of the main threat (Turkish) for at least a long time. Moreover, in the event of a serious military defeat for Turkey, Baku will definitely not dare to take the forceful option of returning Karabakh in any foreseeable future (especially since the fall in oil prices will greatly slow down the development of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces). The choice for Yerevan will be extremely difficult, but it will not be possible to evade it.
Realities
There are more than 30 defense industry enterprises in Armenia that produce various devices and equipment, but not weapons and equipment in their final form. During the post-Soviet period, some new models of small arms were created here, a light N-2 system for firing rocket-propelled grenades, as well as the Krunk drone. On the whole, the country is completely dependent on the import of weapons.
