For the past couple of years, the main topic concerning the Russian armed forces has been the upcoming rearmament. In 2011, a corresponding State Program was launched (the so-called GPV-2020), during which 20 trillion rubles are planned to be allocated for new weapons and military equipment. This huge figure is in fact the sum of all planned allocations over several years. It is quite obvious that the amount of financing for the purchase of new weapons may not be the same for each year in the period from 2011 to 2020. This has been said many times, and more accurate figures have appeared the other day.
Currently, the State Duma is considering a draft federal budget for 2013-15, which takes into account, among other things, previous plans to increase funding for the army. So, by the end of the planned period - in 2015 - defense spending will have crossed the mark of three trillion rubles a year. Thus, according to the calculations of the authors of the draft budget, all military spending will increase in relation to the gross domestic product, from the current three percent to 3.7%. At first glance, the increase is not too large, but in practice this will entail a tangible improvement in the state of the material part and the social sphere.
Such details of the course of GPV-2020 became known from the chairman of the Duma Defense Committee V. Komoedov. The former commander of the Black Sea Fleet noted that the upcoming increase in funding for the army marks a transition from discussions and conversations to the full-scale implementation of the State Rearmament Program. Also worthy of attention are one more words of the deputy. Komoedov said that due to the nature of his service, he often has to visit defense enterprises, and during these visits he noticed a very pleasant tendency: it often turns out that the customer of the product, represented by the Ministry of Defense, not only does not delay payment, but is even ahead of the financing schedule.
It is possible that this trend will continue in the future. Specific figures on the financing of defense allow us to assume such a development of events. In the current 2012 for these purposes 1, 9 trillion rubles have been allocated from the federal budget. In the next 2013, allocations will increase by 200 billion. For 2014, it is planned to increase funding to 2.5 trillion and, finally, in 2015, the country's military budget will exceed three trillion. The dynamics of the “specific growth” in the amount of money allocated for defense is as follows. This year, the military received funding in the amount of 3% of the country's GDP, next year they will receive 3.2%, in 2014 - 3.4%, and by the end of the period planned by the new budget, defense spending will reach the already mentioned level of 3, 7 %.
If the upward trend in investment in defense continues, then it is quite possible that by the end of the period allocated for GPV-2020, the military budget will rise to the level of 5.5-6 percent of the gross domestic product. In this case, its share will be approximately equal to that of the Soviet military budget in the late seventies and early eighties. Perhaps this fact will cause an ambiguous reaction in the form of regular talks about the resumption of the Cold War. A comparison of the shares of military funding in the GDP of Russia and the United States can add fuel to the fire. So, in recent years, American defense spending has been kept at about 3.5-3.7 percent of the country's GDP. Thus, in terms of the share of defense funding, we will soon be able to catch up with the Americans. However, only in terms of share - in absolute terms, the American state budget, as well as the military one, is several times larger than the Russian one.
Nevertheless, the increase in the absolute and relative values of defense financing, regardless of comparison with the economic data of other countries, clearly shows Russia's plans to increase the power of its armed forces. Due to the economic situation of the previous years, especially the last decade of the last century, the Russian army found itself in a far from the best position. According to various estimates, in order to maintain the armed forces in good condition, our country needs to spend at least three percent of its GDP per year on them. To improve the situation, in turn, you need to increase this indicator. Thus, already this year, our military budget has reached the required level and will continue to grow in the future. It should be noted that a significant excess of the optimal funding value of 3% is a kind of compensation for previous years. Since the past twenty-odd years have been very difficult for the army in monetary terms, in the near future it will be necessary to compensate for all the losses that had accumulated earlier. At the same time, it will be necessary to simultaneously develop and produce new weapons and equipment.
Among other areas, V. Komoedov noted the development of nuclear weapons. Funding for this research and development will gradually increase, with the total investment planned for the next three years nearly four times the amount allocated for 2012. In 2015, total spending on military nuclear technology will reach 38 billion rubles. It is noticeable that the cost of nuclear weapons will grow disproportionately to the entire funding of the army. In the light of recent reports on the resumption of non-nuclear explosive tests on Novaya Zemlya, this suggests the idea of an upcoming cardinal renewal of Russia's nuclear forces. In addition, the other day there was another news about the project of a promising intercontinental ballistic missile of a heavy class. It is quite possible that in the current plans for the development of nuclear weapons there is a point about the development of completely new warheads for missiles of the near future.
And yet, positive news is "flavored" with unpleasant ones. So, in connection with the latest proposals to reduce the funding of the army, including those included in the draft budget, next year it will be possible to increase the number of contract servicemen not by 50 thousand, as previously planned, but only by 30. In the future, it is still planned reach the planned level of increasing contract vacancies, but there is reason to doubt the success of this undertaking. The other negative news is in some way related to the image of the military created by the defense-owned media. It became known that the military budget for the next year does not provide funding for the television channel "Zvezda", as well as other mass media under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense. This step is a further development of measures taken to reduce costs by saving on non-core assets. In the field of the media, such savings do not look particularly large (in 2012, one and a half billion rubles were provided for these purposes), but in practice even these amounts may be useful in other areas of defense.
Summing up, we can say the following: financing of the army in the course of the state rearmament program is gaining momentum. At the same time, in order to “optimize” expenses, it is necessary to revise the budgets of different levels. So, to improve the financial condition of the armed forces in the coming years, the size of the country's military budget, expressed as a share of GDP, will grow by about a quarter, and the absolute size of appropriations - by almost a third. At the same time, priorities in the development of various directions are forcing military economists to plan the redirection of cash flows and draw up plans to reduce certain expenses. In principle, this is not surprising. It was clear from the very beginning that GPV 2020 would not be easy, and last year's disputes around it, including with the participation of top-level officials, only proved this once again. Hopefully, the economic situation in the country will allow not only fulfilling all current plans, but also abandoning decisions regarding savings in one direction or another.
