According to various sources, the leading countries of the world are currently developing advanced types of weapons using the so-called. new physical principles. Certain successes have already been achieved in certain areas, and in addition, new weapons are becoming a cause for serious concern on the part of the military or analysts. For example, in recent days, at the suggestion of the American press, in different countries they started talking about the danger in the form of promising electromagnetic weapons being created in Russia, China and other countries.
The main provisions of the concept of weapons using an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) should be recalled. Such a weapon is a generator of a short-term powerful pulse and is intended to combat enemy electronic systems. A powerful EMP should create pickups in the electrical circuits of enemy equipment and literally burn it. After a successful attack with the use of EMP, in theory, the enemy is deprived of the opportunity to use communication and control equipment, locators and even onboard systems of equipment.
"Lighthouse" and report
A wave of concern this time was caused by another article in the American edition of The Washington Free Beacon. On January 24, regular contributor Bill Hertz published an article entitled “China, Russia Building Super-EMP Bombs for‘Blackout Warfare’” - “China and Russia are creating a super-EMP bomb for the“blackout war”. The reason for the appearance of this article was the publication of the report "Nuclear EMP Attack Scenarios and Combined-arms Cyber Warfare".
This 2017 report was prepared for the recently disbanded Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attack. The document cited a number of facts and assumptions regarding EMP weapons and their possible impact on the situation in the world. The report was authored by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry.
In his article, B. Hertz cited the most interesting quotes from the report. First of all, he was interested in the capabilities of different countries in the context of EMP systems, as well as the scope of the latter and the results of such attacks. According to a report for a non-governmental organization, several "unreliable" countries are currently developing their electromagnetic weapons, and in the future they are able to use them to solve their military-political problems. The targets for EMP charges can be objects in Europe, North America, as well as in the Middle and Far East.
P. V. Pry points out that EMP weapons are being developed in Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Such developments are considered in the context of "sixth generation warfare", implying an attack on military and civilian objects in cyberspace, as well as using electromagnetic pulses. In connection with the possible impact on the energy networks of the enemy, such ideas are also called "blackout war" (Blackout War).
It is proposed to use nuclear weapons as a source of "combat" EMP. In this case, different ways of using them with different effect are possible. Thus, the detonation of a nuclear charge at a low altitude reduces the radius of destruction of the EMP, but increases the power of the impact on the enemy. An increase in the height of the blast leads to the opposite results: an increase in the radius and a decrease in power. In this case, it is possible to obtain outstanding results. Thus, the detonation of a nuclear charge of unnamed power at an altitude of 30 km, according to the calculations of the author of the report, can lead to disastrous consequences for the infrastructure of North America.
The report "Nuclear EMP Attack Scenarios and Combined-arms Cyber Warfare" also suggested possible scenarios for hypothetical armed conflicts using EMP weapons. According to the authors, Russia can use its systems of this kind against the NATO contingent in Europe; there is also a threat to the continental part of the United States. China can allegedly hit Taiwan's infrastructure with an electromagnetic pulse. Taiwan and Japan are designated targets for North Korean weapons. Iran is capable of using EMP against Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Further in the lecture, even more interesting estimates are given, which are also quoted by B. Hertz. Terrorists from the Islamic State group (banned in Russia) can allegedly acquire EMP charges from the DPRK, as well as receive short-range missiles from Iran. Then missiles with an unusual warhead can be used to strike at Mediterranean countries. P. V. Pry also suggests that Pyongyang is able to sell its weapons to other terrorist organizations, and this will also lead to a strike on third countries.
For obvious reasons, Free Beacon cites in particular the part of the report devoted to possible EMP strikes on the territory of North America and the United States in particular. In particular, data on the quantitative features of a hypothetical attack are presented. So, only 14 nuclear warheads (power not specified) detonated at an altitude of 60 miles with their electromagnetic pulses are capable of disabling key US infrastructure. The second series of such strikes renders useless the main objects of the army, including the strategic nuclear forces.
The report indicates that the threat to the United States is posed by the activities of several "dictatorial regimes" at once. American targets can be hit by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, not counting terrorist organizations. At the same time, there are sufficiently detailed and plausible information about some projects of this kind. For example, the Russian military and officials have repeatedly talked about the development of weapons based on an electromagnetic pulse.
An article by Free Beacon based on a report by P. V. Praia, attracted the attention of readers and became the reason for a number of new publications in various media. For several days now, discussions have been going on about electromagnetic weapons, their capabilities and potential impact on the situation in the world.
The oddities of the report
B. Gertz from The Washington Free Beacon cited only a few quotes from the report "Nuclear EMP Attack Scenarios and Combined-arms Cyber Warfare". The document itself includes 65 pages and simply will not fit into a small-format article. In this regard, a lot of interesting information remained outside the article in Free Beacon. For example, it only mentioned the theses of the report directly related to the use of EMP weapons, while the original document also considered threats in cyberspace, nuclear weapons, etc. Also, the report had some features that do not allow you to show special confidence in it.
Contrary to various reprints in the media in different countries, the 2017 report is not directly related to the Pentagon or the US Congress. It was prepared by a "private" expert for a non-governmental organization, which, moreover, has recently stopped its activities. These circumstances show the level of the document and its potential in the context of influencing the military policy of the United States. Perhaps the congressmen could familiarize themselves with the report and learn from it some facts (or fiction), but they would hardly have taken it seriously.
The document also contains very bold estimates and extremely interesting assumptions. Some of them are based on too loose assumptions that are hardly admissible for a serious report. However, P. V. Pry recalls some of the events of the past, takes into account the current political agenda, and then draws conclusions based on them. His fabrications and assumptions may at least raise questions, but at the same time they are "politically correct" and meet the interests of some circles in the United States and other countries.
For example, the events of twenty years ago are cited as one of the evidence in favor of Russia's ability and desire to use its hypothetical EMP weapon (p. 3). In May 1999, a Russia-NATO meeting was held in Vienna on the current events in the Balkans. During this event, the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Lukin, made an interesting statement. He offered to present a picture of the events in which Russia really wants to harm the United States and interfere with NATO's combat work and the solution of the political tasks of the Alliance. In this case, the Russian side can launch an intercontinental missile and detonate its warhead at a high altitude over the United States. The resulting electromagnetic pulse could disable the main infrastructure of the state. Another Russian delegate noted that if one missile fails, another will follow.
On the basis of these statements, the author of the report to the EMP Commission draws far-reaching conclusions. In addition, he tends to trust not the best sources and take their information on faith. So, considering threats in cyberspace (p. 11), P. V. Pry, citing foreign sources, writes that in December 2015 and December 2016. Russia launched information attacks. The consequence of such cyberattacks was power outages in the western regions of Ukraine and in Kiev.
Supposed scenarios for the use of EMP weapons may seem plausible or overly daring. However, some of them look extremely strange. For example, a hypothetical situation is seriously considered in which Middle Eastern terrorists launch a missile attack on Italy and disable its facilities using an electromagnetic pulse (p. 45). Iran and North Korea are indicated as sources of weapons and materiel for such an operation. How and why Pyongyang and Tehran should start cooperating with the Islamic State is not specified.
In general, the report "Nuclear EMP Attack Scenarios and Combined-arms Cyber Warfare" looks very strange. Realistic fears and assessments in it are accompanied by controversial theses and overly arbitrary assumptions. All this drastically reduces its value. In addition, the value of the report is negatively affected by the fact that it is positioned in the media as an official Pentagon document presented to Congress. It is unlikely that a serious document needs such a false "advertisement".
The document, which attracted the attention of The Washingtin Free Beacon, and then other media, raises a lot of doubts and suspicions. Apparently, we are talking about some kind of paper "for internal consumption" associated with the interests and tasks of a particular political group in the United States. At the same time, despite the constant mention of third countries, the report is not directly related to them. Foreign developments - both real and imagined - turn out to be just a pretext for frightening statements and predictions. In addition, for some unknown reason, the report from mid-2017 began to be discussed only in January 2019.
A bit of reality
It should be recalled that electromagnetic weapons are indeed being developed by several states and may well enter service. However, for obvious reasons, the developers of such systems are in no hurry to disclose all the details, which contributes to the emergence of various versions, assumptions and rumors. It is known that research and development work on the subject of EMP weapons is being carried out in our country as well.
Several years ago, information appeared in the domestic press about the development of a promising missile system with a warhead in the form of an electromagnetic warhead. This product became known as "Alabuga". However, later, officials denied the development of such a missile system. At the same time, it was clarified that the code "Alabuga" refers to research work on the study of the prospects for EMP weapons. In the fall of 2017, it became known that a number of domestic enterprises are now working on the creation of promising weapons suitable for use in practice, and this project uses the results of the research work "Alabuga". In the future, various rumors appeared again, but official reports on this matter were no longer received.
Currently, the leading countries are really showing interest in weapons that can destroy enemy targets using a powerful electromagnetic pulse. There is some information about the development of such systems and their imminent entry into service. Thus, in the short or medium term, the leading countries of the world will indeed be able to obtain fundamentally new weapons with special capabilities. This means that the year before last year's report for the Commission on EMP Threats and the latest publications in the foreign press still have some relevance to real events. However, the realism of individual forecasts is not a worthy justification for overly bold assumptions and implausible scenarios.
