At the end of 2016, Russia increased its military spending by 5, 9%, bringing them to 69, 2 billion dollars. This allowed the country to enter the top three world leaders in terms of defense spending, pushing Saudi Arabia into fourth place, whose military spending over the past year amounted to $ 63.7 billion. At the same time, the two first places in this ranking are still held by the United States with spending at $ 611 billion and China with spending at $ 215 billion. Such data are contained in the next report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
These are indicators in current US dollars: nominal expenditures in national currency are recalculated at the average annual market rate of the US currency. According to experts, the total military spending of all countries in the world in 2016 amounted to 1.69 trillion dollars, which is 2.2% of world GDP. Of these, Russia accounts for only 4.1% against 36% for the United States and 13% for the PRC. In nominal terms in local currency, SIPRI experts estimated Russia's military spending in 2016 at 4.44 trillion rubles. The growth compared to 2015 was 14.8%.
How the military spending of countries changed in 2016
At the end of 2016, the growth of military expenditures of countries amounted to 0.4% in real terms compared to 2015. At the same time, the United States remains the state with the highest military spending in the world. In 2016, US defense spending rose 1.7%. The rise in state military spending could spell the end of the trend of spending cuts that have been triggered by the global economic crisis and the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. At the same time, US military spending at the end of 2016 still remains 20% lower than at its peak in 2010. In the future, with a high degree of probability, they will only grow. In particular, US President Donald Trump has publicly advocated an increase in budget funding for the Pentagon by $ 54 billion.
Training of crews of army aviation and aerospace forces in Kubinka, photo: mil.ru (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)
SIPRI experts note that military spending in Western Europe has been growing for the second year in a row, starting in 2015. At the end of 2016, they grew by 2.6%. The Institute's specialists note that in 2016, an increase in military spending was recorded in all Western European countries, with the exception of three states. The most significant increase in military spending in Italy, which increased by 11% last year. The states with the largest relative increases in military spending between 2015 and 2016 are located in Central Europe. Total defense spending in this region increased by 2.4% last year. Simon Wesemann, Senior Officer of the SIPRI Arms and Military Expenditure Program, said the rise in spending in many Central European states is partly due to their perception of Russia as a country that poses an increased threat to them. Even though all Russian military spending in 2016 accounted for only 27% of the total military spending of European NATO members.
The share of military spending in GDP at the end of 2016 was the highest in the Middle East, here the average is 6.0% of GDP. The lowest average rates were recorded in the Americas - about 1.3% of GDP. At the same time, experts note a decrease in military spending in Africa; in 2016, total military spending decreased here by 1.3%. The military spending of African countries is falling for the second year in a row after 11 years of continuous growth.
Also in the press release of SIPRI it is noted that the increase in military spending by the Russian Federation in 2016 was contrary to the general trend of reducing such costs in oil-producing countries following the reduction in the cost of oil on the world market. For example, Venezuela cut its military spending by 56% at once, South Sudan - by 54%, Azerbaijan - by 36%, Iraq - by 36%, Saudi Arabia - by 30%. In addition to Russia, from states for which oil exports are of great economic importance, only Iran and Norway increased military spending, while Algeria and Kuwait were able to meet their expenses within the framework of previously approved plans. At the same time, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2016 fell by 16% compared to the average price in 2015, and the Russian Urals crude oil fell even more - by 18%.
Exercises in the South Urals (Chebarkul training ground), photo: mil.ru (RF Ministry of Defense)
In this regard, the reduction in defense spending in Saudi Arabia is noteworthy. Despite the constant participation of the state in regional wars, in 2016, the military spending of Saudi Arabia fell immediately by 30% - to $ 63.7 billion, moving the country to the 4th line of the rating. India ranks fifth in the world in terms of military spending, which in 2016 increased them by 8.5%, bringing this figure to 55.9 billion dollars.
SIPRI's military spending
There is no precise definition that would reveal the concept of "military spending". Various sources may or may not include different categories. For example, SIPRI tries to include in its estimate “all expenditures on active forces and military activities,” including expenditures on paramilitary structures, which include the Russian Guard and civilian defense personnel. Also taken into account are social benefits for military personnel and members of their families, defense development and research, military assistance to other states, military construction. At the same time, the Stockholm Institute excluded from consideration the expenditures on civil defense, which are under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Emergencies, and the current expenditures on past military activities (we are talking about benefits for veterans, the elimination of weapons, the conversion of military-industrial enterprises). Even if the latter costs are paid directly from the budget of the Ministry of Defense.
In its official press release, SIPRI points out that the institute tracks changes in military spending around the world and maintains the most comprehensive, consistent and extensive database of countries' military spending. The institute's specialists include in military spending the government's expenditures on current military forces and military activities, including salaries and benefits, operating expenses, purchases of weapons and military equipment, military construction, research and development, and command and centralized management. That is why SIPRI does not recommend the use of terms such as "arms spending" when talking about military spending, since spending on weapons and military equipment, as a rule, is only a smaller part of the total military spending of states.
Field exercises with reconnaissance units of a motorized rifle formation of the Southern Military District (Kadamovsky training ground, Rostov region), photo: mil.ru (RF Ministry of Defense)
Comments on the rating published by SIPRI
The estimate of Russian military expenditures for 2016 included expenditures in the amount of about 800 billion rubles ($ 11.8 billion), which were intended to pay off part of the debt of domestic defense enterprises to commercial banks. This was reported by RBC with reference to SIPRI Senior Researcher Simon Wiseman. These appropriations, which were unexpectedly allocated at the end of 2016, were positioned by the government as one-off. We are talking about the early repayment of the defense industry loans, which were taken in previous years under state guarantees to fulfill the state defense order. "If it were not for these one-time payments, the military spending of the Russian Federation would have decreased in 2016 compared to 2015," said Simon Wiseman.
Since most of all Russia's defense spending goes through secret (closed) budget items, it is impossible to say how much the Russian government spent on repaying the defense industry loans. Andrey Makarov, head of the budget committee of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, named the figure of 793 billion rubles. At the same time, the Accounts Chamber, in its operational report on budget execution in 2016, reported that guarantees for 975 billion rubles on loans to defense industry enterprises were terminated last year for the purpose of fulfilling the state defense order.
Thus, the one-time costs of closing the "credit scheme" of the Russian defense industry have led to the fact that the volume of the country's military spending in relation to GDP in 2016 reached a record 5.3% - this is the maximum indicator in the history of independent Russia, the SIPRI report notes. At the same time, Russia estimates its defense spending more modestly. According to current government plans, spending on the needs of the armed forces will be reduced from 4.7% of GDP in 2016 to 3% of GDP in 2018.
Tactical exercise of SOBR, OMON and private security units of the Main Directorate of the Russian Guard for the Moscow Region, photo: Vladimir Nikolaychuk, rosgvard.ru
The founder of the Military Russia Internet portal Dmitry Kornev, in an interview with Russia Today reporters, suggested that SIPRI could also take into account the costs that were smeared across other items of the Russian budget. The expert noted that in the budget of Russia, in addition to the item "National Defense" (conventionally, it is she who is considered the military budget), there is also an item of expenditures called "National Security". These are the state's expenses on the Ministry of Internal Affairs, special services and other law enforcement agencies. “Analysts, for example, could take into account the costs of the Russian Guard formed in 2016. The new Russian power structure is also responsible for the country's security, and we do not have exact data on its funding. The Stockholm Institute could roughly estimate how much money was spent on the Russian Guard, as well as the associated defense costs. All this does not mean that the institute made a serious mistake somewhere,”Dmitry Kornev noted.
Vadim Kozyulin, professor at the Academy of Military Sciences, in turn, believes that SIPRI's impressive data on the growth of military spending in Russia should not turn into a reason for accusing our country of militarization. “Against the background of the current situation in the world in general, as well as the situation around the Russian Federation in particular, they want to hang many labels on us. I wouldn't trust SIPRI statistics unconditionally. Often, the numbers can be very different from reality. Our country is cutting spending on the military sector. This is dictated by economic reasons and is felt by everyone,”said Vadim Kozyulin in an interview with RT.
Estimates of Russia's military spending by other experts
It is worth noting that the assessment of the military expenditures of states is not limited to the calculations of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. A large number of equally authoritative centers operate with other statistical data. For example, the well-known military analytical magazine Jane's Defense Weekly previously published a study, which notes that in 2016 Russia spent $ 48.5 billion on the needs of the army. As a result, Moscow dropped out of the top five countries in the world in terms of defense spending, from fifth place, according to Jane's Defense, Russia was ousted by India, whose military spending reached $ 50.7 billion. According to the forecasts of this publication, by the end of 2018, the Russian Federation will drop to the 7th line in this rating. At the same time, India, on the contrary, will rise even higher - to the third line (56.5 billion dollars), Great Britain - to the fourth - 55.4 billion dollars, and Saudi Arabia will close the top five. France will be in sixth place - $ 45.5 billion.
The first exercise of the Russian Airborne Forces with the massive use of the latest combat vehicles BMD-4M and BTR-MDM, photo: mil.ru (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)
British consulting firm IHS Markit gave similar estimates. According to her, in 2016, Russian defense spending fell by 7% - to $ 48.4 billion. In another two years, the Russian military budget will be reduced by another $ 7.3 billion - to $ 41.4 billion. Japan ($ 41 billion) and Germany ($ 37.9 billion) will breathe in the back of the Russian Federation in terms of military spending.
According to Global Firepower experts, in 2016 Russia spent $ 46.6 billion on defense, ahead of Japan ($ 40.3 billion) and India ($ 40 billion). At the same time, the United Kingdom (55 billion), Saudi Arabia (56.725 billion), China (155 billion) and the United States (581 billion) are located above Russia. It is worth noting that all three presented statistical reports are united by the fact that they estimate the Russian military budget at no more than $ 50 billion and predict its further decrease. It is possible that these analytical foreign centers took statistics from the Russian government as the basis for their calculations. So in 2016, 3.1 trillion rubles were allocated for the needs of the national defense of the Russian Federation (the amount was adjusted in favor of a decrease - to 2.886 trillion rubles). This figure at the weighted average exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar over the past two years is just about $ 50 billion.
