At the end of April, the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published its next annual report on the country's spending on defense last year. This document announces a number of interesting figures, and also shows the key trends currently observed in the military and political sphere.
General indicators
Reportedly, global military spending last year totaled $ 1,917 billion. This is 2.2% of world GDP - $ 249 per capita. Compared to 2018, expenses increased by 3.6%. Compared to 2010, the growth was 7.2%. SIPRI notes that the highest absolute and relative indicators are now observed since the 2008 crisis. It is likely that these are also peak values, and then a decline will begin.
62% of spending falls on just five countries - the United States, China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia. "Top 40" states provided 92% of world spending. The absolute record for spending again remains with the United States with its military budget of $ 732 billion (an increase of 5.3%). Other leaders of the rating show similar growth rates.
The sustainable growth of budgets is observed only in the developed countries of Europe, North America and Asia. In other regions, the existing indicators are maintained or even reduced. For example, South America continues to finance defense in the same amounts, the average indicators for Africa are growing slightly, and there is a decrease in the Middle East.
Power confrontation
Only a few large countries make the main contribution to the overall growth of world spending, and their list has not undergone any significant changes over several years. The reason for the constant buildup of military budgets in their case is the need to confront other countries with comparable or higher military potential.
This trend is best demonstrated by the United States with its 732 billion in spending. They have developed armed forces, which are quite expensive to maintain. In addition, Washington is openly opposing China and Russia, which requires additional costs.
China and Russia respond symmetrically - by increasing their spending. The Chinese military budget for the year increased by 5.1% and reached $ 261 billion. Russia spent $ 65.1 billion on defense in 2019 - an increase of 4.5%. SIPRI notes that Russia is one of the European leaders in terms of the share of military spending in the budget. They account for 3.9% of the country's GDP.
It should be noted that China is not only opposing the United States, and this is also reflected in the statistics from SIPRI. China's main regional competitor is India, which also has to compete with Pakistan. The confrontation with two neighboring countries last year led to an increase in the budget to $ 71.7 billion - by 6.8% and raised the country to third place in the overall rating. It is noteworthy that in terms of growth rates, India has overtaken China, but is several times inferior to it in absolute numbers.
In connection with the activity of China and the DPRK, South Korea is increasing its expenses. With spending of 43.9 billion dollars and an increase of 7.5%, it ranks tenth in the general list of countries. Japan is located above it. It spent $ 47.6 billion on defense, but this is 0.1% less than in 2018.
Interesting trends are observed in Europe. The confrontation between Russia and NATO with allies continues in the region, which leads to certain consequences. Some of the main NATO countries maintain the same level of spending. Thus, Great Britain again spent 48.7 billion dollars (growth of 0%, 7th place in terms of expenditures), while France increased its budget by only 1.6% to 50.1 billion and remained in sixth place in the general list.
Between the UK and France, Germany is in the Top 10 with 49.3 billion in spending and a significant 10% growth. Ukraine showed a similar growth of 9.3%, but it spent only 5.2 billion dollars. Similar trends are observed in some other countries. For example, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Romania increased spending by 12, 12 and 17 percent. respectively - but in absolute numbers they spent only 12, 1 billion, 5, 2 billion and 4, 9 billion dollars.
War costs
A number of countries in the world are now forced to fight terrorism in the framework of full-fledged military operations. In other states, there is at least political instability that threatens to turn into a civil war. Circumstances like these can stimulate an increase in defense spending - which is observed in some regions.
In 2019, the military spending of Iraq, which continues to fight international terrorists, increased by 17% and reached $ 7.6 billion. SIPRI does not have data on Syria, which is in a similar situation. The budget of Burkina Faso showed a high growth of 22%, however, even after that, expenditures amount to only 358 million dollars. A similar situation with Afghanistan - 20% growth and only 227 million in absolute numbers.
In other countries, the opposite processes are observed. A weakened economy can no longer maintain defense spending at the same level. Niger cut the budget by 20% to $ 172 million. Nigeria - by 8.2% to $ 1.86 billion. Chad began to spend 5.1% less.
Peculiar records
In the SIPRI data, attention is drawn to the performance of individual countries showing record growth or decline. Such processes can be based on a variety of factors, mostly obvious and expected.
A record increase in military spending of 127% last year was shown by Bulgaria, which spent $ 2.17 billion. Two-thirds of this spending, approx. $ 1.25 billion went to pay for the only contract - eight F-16 fighters were ordered from the United States, as well as spare parts, weapons and personnel training. Until 2018 inclusive, the Bulgarian military budget was much more modest. It is very likely that by the end of 2020, spending will return to the previous level.
Among the "record holders" we can mention Zimbabwe. This state has been unable to cope with the economic crisis for many years, and its costs are constantly falling. It became the leader in reductions last year, cutting the military budget by 50%. After that, only $ 547 million was spent on defense. Most likely, this trend will continue in the foreseeable future.
Trends and phenomena
It is easy to see that in terms of the main phenomena and trends, 2019 is almost the same as in several previous years. According to SIPRI, there was a decrease in overall military spending from 2011 to 2014. Since 2015, the reverse process has been recorded - military expenditures both in individual countries and in total on the planet are constantly growing. So far, these trends persist, while the specific numbers, percentages and places of states in the aggregate ratings are changing.
2019 can be considered as confirmation of the long-known laws of the military-political sphere. The deterioration of relations between countries leads to military risks and confrontation, which entails an increase in defense spending. The belligerent country has to speed up these processes and dramatically increase costs. At the same time, a weak economy can simply overstrain - after which, despite the continuation of the fighting, the indicators begin to fall.
Actual statistics can be interesting from the point of view of the market for military products. The increase in spending speaks of the readiness and ability of countries to develop their defenses. One of the methods of this is the purchase of certain products. If the developed countries - the leaders in the ratings from SIPRI - independently provide themselves with the necessary products, then other countries are forced to purchase imported products. This fact should be taken into account by manufacturers of weapons and other military products, incl. Russia, which is one of the leaders in the world market.
It should be noted that right now the world economy is going through hard times, and already now it affects all major areas, including defense and security. The economic crisis associated with the pandemic could significantly change the defense budgets of countries. SIPRI will be monitoring such developments and will present a new report next spring.
