Just recently, we discussed the prospects of our new developments to our heart's content. And really, God loves a trinity: information about PAK YES has come.
Actually, there is nothing surprising in it. Another fairy tale did not come true. In principle, there is nothing surprising after the "news" that the T-14 Armata tank will be built in quantities necessary to equip one regiment, and the Su-57 is not needed at all, since there is a Su-35S, which is "no worse ".
It's time to deal with the so-called PAK YES.
No, no one says that developments are being phased out for any reason. Developments in the Tupolev Design Bureau are going on as usual. And sometime, in the foreseeable future, they will be finished. And the time will come to transform the PAK DA, following the example of the PAK FA, into something more acceptable. Tu-360, for example.
Let's take a serious look at the problems of our DA (Long-Range Aviation) in the light of today's searchlights.
To begin with, let's just see what our YES is. As of 2017 (I don’t think that something has changed dramatically there), our strategic aviation consisted of 15 Tu-160 units (11 - Tu-160 and 4 - Tu-160M) and 60 Tu-95 units of all modifications, from MS to MSM.
A little, let's face it.
For comparison: in the USA, YES looks a little more impressive. В1В - 64 units, В-2 - 19 units, В-52 - 62 units.
Not strong, but better. Considering that their B-52 is, in principle, the same flying aviaraty as our Tu-95, then they can not even be considered. But - they will fly until the gliders have developed their resource completely. Both ours and American ones. A strategist is an expensive business.
As for something new, I want to note only one thing: our 16 Tu-160s will not make any difference. Yes, the plane is just fine, but 16 bombers against the American shield of almost 1000 aircraft carrier-based aircraft, which quite by accident can be moved to the launch line of Tu-160 missiles … And considering that we really have nothing to cover them with …
In general, 16 "White Swans" will not do the weather at all.
Means what? Need more? Necessary. To have a chance to break through the American defenses, the Tu-160 must be an order of magnitude larger. At least a hundred.
The question arises: where to get it?
There is only one answer: in Kazan. And the answer is absolutely correct.
And the Kazan aircraft plant is now trying with all its might to implement two programs at once.
The first is to bring up the existing Tu-160 at least to the state of the Tu-160M. It is difficult, it is replacing virtually all electronics and avionics from analog to digital.
If anyone looked closely, they did not even talk about upgrading to the M2 level. It turned out to be easier to build a new plane.
Second program. Direct construction of the Tu-160M2. What was said at the time by both the president and the prime minister.
Attention, question. Where will the work on the construction of the PAK DA take place?
The main problem is that there is nowhere to produce PAK YES. And this is the most important nuance. Yes, there is our wonderful Kazan aircraft plant capable of producing aircraft of this class. But…
To begin with, the plant will first have to deal with the Tu-160. And this is not so easy.
Now the first Tu-160M2 is being built at the Kazan aircraft plant. It should make its first flight in 2021. That is, after 3 years. Considering that the Ministry of Defense has announced the need for 50 aircraft, even taking into account the line production, we get that such a number of aircraft will be built for more than a dozen years.
I am sure that something like that will creep out. The money will run out, the workers will not keep up … It is understandable, it is one thing to work hard at 40-50 years, another - at 60-65.
Delivery directly to the Tu-160M2 unit is expected to be expected in the late 1920s or a little later. "A little" is even more likely.
It's funny, but according to the plans voiced dozens of times, which have not yet been canceled, PAK DA should come to the VKS at about the same time. And this, against the background of the "Armata" and the Su-57, is not something that is hard to believe, I do not believe at all.
It will not be possible to create, build and master the PAK DA flight and technical personnel against the background of the modernization of the Tu-160 and the construction of the Tu-160M2. For two reasons.
The second reason: the Kazan aircraft plant will not be able to. You can list the points for a long time in support of this, but I would prefer to leave it that way, because there is also the first reason. Will not be able to drag the release of two different planes.
The first reason: it will not stand the budget. Strategic bomber, sorry, this is not a tank. It is more difficult and more expensive. And if we couldn’t get into the “Armata” and the Su-57, then it’s not even worth starting to talk about more expensive things.
The alignment is so-so, to be honest.
The most unpleasant thing about it is that 50 missile carriers will not do any weather. Simply because if we look towards a potential adversary in the person of the United States / NATO, then it becomes clear: the chances of these 50 Tu-160s reaching the launch point are very few. They simply will not be allowed to do this by the US planes and the aviation of the allies.
And further. I repeat again that it is worth taking a closer look at the concept of the use of their offensive forces by the Americans.
Yes, they also have ICBMs, albeit worse than ours. But there is. Yes, they have strategic bombers worse than the Tu-160M2, but there are more of them.
But the main emphasis in the attack (I hope no one will argue that ICBMs and DAs are not defensive weapons) in the United States is placed on the navy.
The fleet is a significant factor in delivering combat arguments to the enemy. If only because it can provide (unlike missiles and bombers) active resistance when trying to neutralize it.
Aircraft carriers and their retinues in the form of air defense cruisers, URO frigates and other ships will not only be able to move more missiles into the reach zone than strategic bombers, but the ships are able to make it as difficult as possible for the enemy to disrupt this task.
This is to be serious, and not to shout in the style of a kindergarten that "we will sink all nuclear warheads!" The enemy also has them, if that. And a flock of "Axes" in 2-3 thousand pieces will destroy more and more effectively than several dozen "Caliber", no matter how better the latter.
We do not have a far-field fleet, and it is obvious that we will not. We don't know how to build big ships. We have forgotten how to do with the loss of Ukrainian factories, and this is a fact that cannot be avoided.
And the situation is only getting worse. On the website of the Ministry of Industry and Trade (I will give a link at the end) in June this year, the "Strategy for the development of the shipbuilding industry until 2035" was published.
The strategy has a priority in the construction of small displacement ships for warfare in coastal areas. Yes, the same "mosquito fleet", the invention of the famous pirate Madame Wong.
This strategy was recently adopted by Ukraine and we had a lot of fun. And now we have grown up to her.
No, in terms of defense, the RACs (missile and artillery ships / boats) are quite good. But if we talk about the oceanic zone, where work may be required to ensure the actions of YES - sorry, guys, you yourself will get out on the "carcasses", according to your skills.
It is difficult, to be honest, to imagine how the air group of "Admiral Kuznetsov" will be able to oppose at least something to the guys from "Bush". 3 to 1 is not in our favor, no matter how good the Su-30 is against the F-15.
Considering that ours never learned how to take off from the Kuzi with a full load. And in any case, our only aircraft carrying aircraft still stood up for ten years, no less. It is not so much a matter of modernization as of overhaul of all systems, which in the best times were not distinguished by their reliability and accurate work.
And during that time, the Americans will build a couple more atomic troughs for 200-300 aircraft, and the very existence of "Admiral Kuznetsov" will be simply an aircraft-carrying absurdity. Not really capable of anything.
But we continue to look at the United States.
Are the Americans so stupid that they do not trust their strategic bombers to deliver nuclear weapons to the enemy?
Today, the United States uses long-range aircraft armed with conventional missiles and bombs in strikes outside its mainland. Considering who they are fighting with, everything is justified.
However, if a "normal" conflict breaks out, what will change?
And absolutely nothing.
The entire US strategic flying gang will strike at best with "conventional" free-fall nuclear bombs. They do not have missiles today, at least similar to our Kh-55. But they don’t need it.
Both B-1B and B-2 mainly operate with bombs. I am silent about the veteran B-52. Yes, the Americans had an AGM-129ACM missile with a nuclear warhead, which had a range of 3,700 km. It was, but has long been removed from service. It was to be replaced by AGM-131, which was simply not completed. As unnecessary.
And at the moment, American strategists will only drag free-falling nuclear bombs in the compartments. If dragged. Most likely no. In the event of a conflict of the highest level, a bomber will have to get into the air defense zone. Whether Russian or Chinese, there is no difference and no chance.
This means that something or someone must provide countermeasures to this air defense. Well, that's it, back to the beginning. Where it was said that the fleet is a more profitable delivery of missiles to the launch point.
Well, we don't seem to have much choice. Without the presence of the fleet at distant lines, the effectiveness of long-range aviation operations is significantly reduced, since there is a significant likelihood of neutralizing aviation.
And since one frigate with a missile weapon, not to mention a cruiser, has a significantly greater striking power than a link of strategic bombers, is it worth it to rely at all on a rather small number of attack aircraft?
An ambiguous situation, right?
Veterans of Tu-95MS will soon have to be sent on a well-deserved rest. Simply because their operation would be unsafe. The Tu-160, although it is the most powerful bomber in the world today, its avionics and electronics date back to yesterday, if not the day before yesterday. This can be partially eliminated in the modification of the Tu-160M. But - partially.
Well, hope that the Tu-160M2 in the number of ordered 50 units will be built. There are also considerable doubts about this.
And what about PAK YES?
But nothing. Maybe in a couple of years a model will be shown at the next forum "ARMY-20.."
And in terms of the fact that the work has been going on for 10 years, but we do not know anything about the plane. Well, besides the fact that it will be subsonic, unobtrusive and assembled according to the "flying wing" scheme.
The description is very similar … to the B-2 Spirit!
And this is weird. Surprisingly strange. After all, the concept of using the B-2 was developed in the late 70s, when everything was different. When, for example, there were no S-400 and S-500, electronic warfare systems capable of causing a serious headache for the crew. And - most importantly - who do not give a damn whether it is an unobtrusive plane or not. Will work in any case.
Of course, if such strategic bombers are used against the Papuans or terrorists there, then yes. The situation is simplified. And if not? If a "cool batch"? Questions…
It is known that each Tu-160M2 costs 15 billion rubles. This is four times cheaper than the B-2, which costs a billion dollars. But no forecasts were ever made regarding the cost of PAK DA, and no figures were given. Even approximate.
One can optimistically and patriotically hope that the PAK DA will become an effective bomber. Sometime later. In twenty years.
Honestly, I have suspicions that a certain document is about to appear, similar to the strategy for the development of the fleet, the "sentence" of the Su-57 and "Armata", which will freeze all movements on the PAK DA "until better times."
"Better times" are when oil will again cost so much that it will be enough for everyone to enrich, and there will still be something left there for the country's security.
In the meantime, it is obvious that no money is foreseen for security. All that was possible was spent on an indistinct football show. And now we are already beginning to reap the benefits in the form of crumbling infrastructure in Volgograd and Nizhny Novgorod.
Like many "hawks", instead of entertaining foreign fans, I would prefer this game at my expense, five or ten Tu-160M2. But who was there when who in this country asked?
And PAK YES will not. We disperse, the fairy tale is over …
For those who love the fleet, I just recommend that you familiarize yourself with this document.
