Why the United States and Turkey are starting a new stage of hostilities in Syria
A new wave of exacerbation of the Syrian conflict is inevitable. The United States does not have any puppet regimes under its control in the region. The only chance to maintain influence is to change the government in Syria.
The Northern Army, the formation of which was made by the United States, Turkey and their allies, should become the main striking force in the operation to defeat the IS grouping in the northern part of the Aleppo and Manbij provinces, as well as to oust Jabhat al-Nusra (both of these organizations in Russia prohibited) from the Idlib area. These actions will most likely be supported by US-led coalition aircraft and Turkish artillery.
"For Russia, the defeat of the Kurds will mean an early activation of Islamic radicals in the Caucasus region."
The decision of the meeting of representatives of the United States, Turkey, Qatar, the KSA and the rebels to consider all armed opposition organizations that refused to join the Northern Army as terrorist is quite symptomatic. That is, any structure that is not part of the IS and agreed to fight (or imitate a war) against the latter as part of the "northerners" can already be considered moderate.
The basis of the anti-ISIS army, judging by open sources, should be "Akhrar ash-Sham", "Failak ash-Sham", "Jaysh ash-Sham", "Tuva Sham", "Nur ad-Din al-Zinki". To justify the war against fellow believers, a fatwa will be issued from IS, according to which such actions are considered a godly deed.
The Northern Army should receive not only weapons for the infantry, but also armored vehicles of various classes.
The transfer of weapons and military equipment and militants from Turkey began on May 14 through the Bab al-Hawa terminal. The leader of the Nur ad-Din al-Zinki organization was appointed commander of the Northern Army formations.
After the creation of a ground attack group, it is planned to launch an offensive in four directions: to Jarabus, to ar-Rai, to Azaz and from Marea to the east.
Comparing the proposed deployment areas and the objectives of the operation, it can be assumed that Azaz will be the main direction of the strike, since, on the one hand, this allows you to go directly to the largest Syrian city of Aleppo, providing reliable communication linking the main forces of the rebels with their bases in Turkey, and on the other hand, to dissect the territory, preventing the emergence of a continuous zone controlled by the Kurds. The support of the Turkish artillery means: a direct military intervention will begin. After all, it is quite obvious that the guns should appear on the territory of Syria and they cannot be introduced without covering forces - mechanized and tank units and formations.
That is, the cessation of hostilities in Syria was not even conceived as long-term. It was only a truce to regroup and rebuild the forces of the rebels controlled by Turkey and the United States, as well as to create a more acceptable image of the armed opposition for the world community. Organizations that do not fit into this system are declared terrorist - some according to their prehistory, such as IS and Jabhat al-Nusra (at the same time, the overflow of militants, including the command echelon, into the “moderates” is by no means prohibited), others - as those who refused to accept US-Turkish control, including the Syrian Kurdish militia operating in the northern regions of the country.
Ball of interests
The reasons why the United States and Turkey are resuming hostilities are clear. As a result of the failure of Operation Arab Spring, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has noticeably lost its credibility in the Arab world. At the same time, they did not have a reliable and clearly controlled regime by the United States in this critical area of the world. After planting a puppet regime in Syria, they begin to control the flow of Qatari gas to Europe, and also receive a military-strategic foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean, expelling Russia from there. After the defeat of the "Arab Spring" in Egypt with a pronounced strengthening of the Russian vector in Cairo's policy, the United States had no one left in this zone.
For Turkey, the situation in Syria at the time of the cessation of hostilities means a complete failure of the course of the ruling elite led by Erdogan. The Ottoman Empire-2 project collapses at the very beginning, while Kurdish autonomy, hostile to Ankara, is created on the southern borders. As a result, the regional position and status of Turkey are sharply deteriorating.
For Qatar, there is no hope for the creation of a strategically important gas pipeline to Syrian ports or to Turkey for further transit to Europe, displacing Russia from this market. For the United States, this is also an important project, since it deals a serious blow to Russian interests.
Saudi Arabia is also losing a lot. First of all, hopes to defeat Iran's main ally in the Arab world and thereby leave Tehran in isolation and weaken its influence in the region. The project of a new caliphate, with the idea of which the kingdom has been worn for more than a decade, will be finally buried. Maintaining the status quo in Syria for the Saudis is a serious defeat, entailing a strengthening of the role of Iran and an increase in threats to the stability of the KSA until the fall of the ruling dynasty.
For Russia, the conclusion of peace with the existing status quo in Syria means nothing more than a military victory, albeit a limited one. This leads to a significant increase in influence in the region, in particular in the Arab world, which, as you know, respects only the strong.
In Syria, the majority of the population has a positive attitude towards the incumbent president and government, as a symbol of opposition to external aggression. Even Bashar al-Assad's refusal from office (in free elections in Syria, if he participates in the presidential race, he is guaranteed a victory) will not lead to the power of US henchmen or other opposition politicians - their adventures cost the Syrians too dearly. Keeping the current government in power with the prospect of Assad's re-election means the emergence of a Russian strategic foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean, the disruption of the construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe, and the emergence of Kurdish autonomy, similar in ideology to the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), on the southern border of Turkey.
For Iran, maintaining the status quo (with the prospect of defeating IS and other organizations recognized as terrorist, the need for which is understood by all external players) and participation in the victorious coalition led by Russia means a significant strengthening of its position in the Arab and especially in the Islamic world. This is most likely to be followed by mass demonstrations of the oppressed Shiite population in the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, which Tehran will support in one way or another.
Naturally, there are wide opportunities for active introduction into the region of China, as an ally of Russia and Iran, with the economic replacement of American influence.
Therefore, a new round of armed confrontation in Syria is inevitable - the United States and its allies will seek revenge.
Two stages, two strikes
The capabilities of the Syrian army are growing due to the supply of weapons from Russia. In the battles of recent months, the Syrian army has demonstrated material (in weapons and military equipment) and moral superiority over the militants. The allies of the Syrian government are strong and well organized - Hezbollah and the Kurdish forces have proven this many times. They are fluent in the methods of guerrilla warfare, in no way inferior to the opposition fighters - neither in combat training, nor in tactical and operational training, and in many aspects they are superior. There is no reason to count on the fact that the hands of militants will be able to overthrow the legitimate government of Syria. Therefore, the Northern Army is being created, which should become the main striking force of the anti-Assad coalition. The idea of a new phase of the war seems to be similar to the one that was worked out in Afghanistan. Even the name of the army refers to the Northern Alliance. It is neutral, without an Islamic component, and looks more good-looking in the information field of the West.
As noted, the main goal of the Northern Army is to defeat IS. Is it so? And is it possible for American geopolitics to limit itself to the defeat of IS - even with the creation of a puppet state headed by the henchmen of the United States and Turkey in the territories that the Northern Army will take under control? Would they agree that even in the limited area of the seaside part of Syria, the power of the incumbent president will remain? Obviously, such an outcome does not allow achieving any of the goals that the United States and its allies set for themselves in inciting the civil war. Indeed, the Syrian government retains the most economically developed and populated areas of the country, as well as almost the entire Mediterranean coastline.
Therefore, after the defeat of IS (which, most likely, will be accompanied by an active transfer of the militants of this organization to the Northern Army), one should expect the deployment of hostilities against government forces. Accordingly, the next period of the war in Syria is the transition of the US-led coalition to open intervention. It will most likely consist of two main stages.
At the first, the tasks of defeating IS and other irregular formations (both oppositional and friendly to the Syrian government) not controlled by the United States and its allies are solved with the creation of a strategic bridgehead along the northern border of Syria from the Mediterranean Sea (areas now controlled by the Kurds) to the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan deep into it. territories up to 100-200 kilometers or more (mainly in the eastern regions of Syria, now controlled by IS). Two operations are to be expected. The first of them (already announced in the media, at least at the level of targets and probable directions of strikes) is to defeat the main forces of the jihadists, which will allow the coalition led by the United States and the controlled Northern Army to declare themselves the victors of IS as the main threat to peace.
Further, the militarized formations of the Syrian Kurds are declared a terrorist organization, for which, perhaps, the United States is organizing several terrorist attacks with a Kurdish trace in Turkey. The PKK conducts such attacks on a regular basis, and due to the ties with it, the Kurdish militias of Syria may well be officially classified as terrorists. And to defeat them, a second operation is planned - this time with the aim of establishing control over the northwestern provinces of Syria, where the Kurdish autonomy is now located.
At the second stage, the task of fighting the Syrian army and Hezbollah formations will be solved with the aim of occupying the coastal provinces of Syria that are critical for the Americans and their allies.
Turkish reinforcements
What is the feasibility of this scenario?
To conduct the first operation, a group should be created, in terms of its combat capabilities, sufficient to quickly solve the problem of defeating the main forces of IS in the northern and northeastern regions of Syria. Obviously, Turkey will not put together an army of rebels on its territory - this is a force that is too dangerous for its internal stability. In Syria, the choice of the location for the formation of a grouping will be determined by the objectives of the operation, military-geographical conditions, the combat potential of the enemy troops stationed in this area, and the presence of potentially friendly detachments in it. Taking into account the operational situation and other named factors, the likely area for the creation of the Northern Army will most likely become a zone in the triangle of the cities of Azaz, Tal Rifaat and Maare, the only bridgehead controlled by Turkey's friendly "moderate" militants. Based on the estimated composition of the participating organizations, a group of 35-40 thousand militants can be assembled here. Their main armament, most likely, will be light and heavy small arms, mortars and artillery of various calibers, mostly outdated images of Soviet and American production, a number of light armored vehicles, anti-tank systems and, possibly, MANPADS. The experience of previous hostilities in Syria shows that these forces will not be able to solve the problem of defeating IS, especially in a short time. Therefore, it must be assumed that a fairly large grouping of Turkish regular troops will join the operation. Its combat strength (in an effort to maximize it for a speedy victory) is mainly limited by the operational capacity of the area and can be estimated within the reinforced army corps with the inclusion of up to two artillery and one special-purpose brigades. That is, the number of Turkish forces can be 25-30 thousand people with 150-200 tanks, 400 various armored combat vehicles and 300-350 artillery barrels, including 100-120 long-range self-propelled guns T-155 Firtina and M107, up to 30 attack helicopters. For air support, 120-140 American and Turkish tactical aircraft are likely to be allocated.
The equipment and combat strength of the IS formations opposing these forces is approximately one and a half to two times smaller in number, and an order of magnitude inferior in military potential. It can be assumed (from the experience of actions against the ISIS of the Syrian army in cooperation with the Russian Aerospace Forces) that under favorable conditions, as in Afghanistan, within one and a half to two months, the "northerners" will be able to dislodge IS militants from the main settlements in the operation zone. However, it is unlikely that it will be possible to defeat the irregular formations: partly they will go to the southern regions of Syria, partly they will hide in mountainous areas or disperse among the population.
However, it is impossible to delay the transition to the next stage, since the Syrian Kurds will quickly understand that they will now be the target of the Northern Army's attack, and will begin intensive preparations to repel the attack. At the same time, it is quite possible that they will agree to an agreement with the legitimate government, sacrificing part of their autonomous rights. Therefore, it will be necessary to regroup the main forces of the Northern Army and the Turkish troops supporting it to fight the Kurds in the northwestern provinces of Syria. These actions will begin even before the final cleansing of the area of IS militants.
If the Kurds agree with the Syrian government and receive full support from the Russian Aerospace Forces, which can organize patrols by fighter aircraft (this will be especially effective with the support of AWACS A-50 aircraft), as well as cover this zone of the Syrian air defense, then it is likely that the second operation of the Northern Army will be disrupted during the preparation stage. It will not be possible to force Moscow and Damascus to agree to strikes against the Kurds, and the autonomous actions of the irregular units of the Northern Army without powerful support from American aviation and Turkish artillery will have no effect, leading only to heavy losses among the militants.
Even if the Kurds do not come to an agreement with the Syrian government, Russia is unlikely to calmly observe their defeat by Islamic radicals, even if they are recognized as "moderate." After all, the defeat of the Kurds will mean a quick increase in the activity of Islamic radicals in the Caucasus region. This means that the United States and Turkey will hardly succeed in achieving the goals of this second operation. Thus, the likelihood that it will come to her is not very high, and the chances of success are even less.
And the sight is on Russia
If the second operation is nevertheless launched, it will quickly become clear to the Syrian and Russian leaders that in a relatively short time after the defeat of the Kurds, the Northern Army, under the cover of the US-Turkish aviation, will reorient itself to government forces. Accordingly, measures will be taken to strengthen the Syrian Armed Forces with Russian weapons, in particular air defense systems, with the possible conclusion of a mutual assistance agreement. The beginning of hostilities by the Northern Army with the support of the United States and Turkey against Syria will mean a transition to open hostilities against Russia, which is unacceptable for everyone. The blockade of the Black Sea straits for the transit of our cargo to Syria will lead to a similar result.
That is, given the current state of affairs, the creation of the Northern Army is guaranteed to solve the only task - the defeat of one of the IS groupings, and nothing more. This will make it possible to more actively influence the political processes in Syria, including the elections of the country's leadership. However, the goals of the United States, Turkey, KSA and Qatar are not achieved by this. That is, the war is still lost.
The analysis shows that the main obstacle in the implementation of this strategic scenario is Russia. Therefore, the deployment of the Northern Army is most likely one of the elements of the geopolitical campaign, where the main theater of confrontation will not be Syria. And the only way to get Russia out of the game is to create an internal political crisis.
One of two things: either the Northern Army is created to solve the limited task of expanding the weight of the opposition in the political alignment of post-war Syria with the recognition of the failure of the policy of the United States, Turkey and the KSA in relation to this country, or it is preparing its full defeat on the assumption that Russia will not be able to significantly influence the situation being busy with internal problems, which the Western "partners" are preparing for us. The second option is more likely.
