In just a few months, the military department and the defense industry will begin implementing the new State Arms Program for 2018-2025. Fulfilling the new plans of the Ministry of Defense, many enterprises will build and manufacture a lot of models of equipment and weapons of new models, and the army, having received them, will significantly update its material part. At the same time, the new State Program is still at the development stage and has not yet been approved. The required signatures for this document will appear only in the foreseeable future.
As has been repeatedly noted over the past few months, the development of the new State Program has been going on since the end of last year. This process should be completed shortly. According to the latest data, the program will be approved in the fall. Thus, no later than November, it will become clear exactly how the military and political leadership intends to modernize the armed forces over the next few years.
The new State Program has not yet been approved and published. However, individual messages received in the recent past, as well as certain known data, make it possible to imagine exactly how the further modernization of the army will take place. In addition, there is already certain information about the cost of the required work. All this data can be used to draw up a rough picture. In the future, as new information appears, it will be replenished and corrected.
The new state program will be implemented until the middle of the next decade. At the same time, already in the first years of its operation, it is planned to solve one of the main tasks of the current rearmament. Back in the early tenths, it was announced that by 2020 the share of new weapons and equipment in the army should be 70%. To date, this problem has been partially solved, and over the remaining several years it is required to bring the share of new products to the required level.
The implementation of such plans is expectedly associated with fairly large spending. Having analyzed the needs and plans, the Ministry of Defense initially demanded 30 trillion rubles for the new State Program. Subsequently, the government announced its intention to cut military spending, and the estimate for rearmament was reduced to 22 trillion. At the moment, even smaller figures are relevant - 17 trillion rubles. As follows from the available data, the new State Program is being drawn up with such funding in mind.
The main costs under the State Program will be associated with financing the development of promising projects and the purchase of new weapons, equipment and other military products. The Ministry of Defense has previously managed to announce plans for certain projects, which makes it possible to get a rough idea of future purchases of one kind or another.
For obvious reasons, a special place in the new program should be occupied by the renewal of the armament of the strategic nuclear forces. The procurement of new equipment for all of their components is already being carried out within the framework of the current program, and will not stop even after its completion. Until 2025, the new materiel will have to receive strategic missile forces, the naval component of the strategic nuclear forces and long-range aviation.
According to available data, at the very end of this decade, silo-based R-36M intercontinental ballistic missiles will begin to be replaced by the new RS-28 Sarmat products. If all existing plans are fulfilled, such missiles by the mid-twenties will be built in a fairly large series and will become an important element of the containment system. In the early twenties, the process of decommissioning the RT-2PM2 Topol-M complexes may start, the replacement of which will be carried out using the RS-24 Yars systems. According to various estimates, the first samples of the Barguzin railway complex may be built by 2025.
During the execution of the current State Program for 2011-2020, several strategic submarine cruisers of projects 955 and 955A "Borey" were laid down. Five of these ships are currently at various stages of construction. All of them will be completed and handed over to the customer during the period of the new State Program. However, according to available data, all financing of this construction will be carried out within the framework of the current program. Serial production of R-30 Bulava missiles for these submarines has already begun and is likely to continue from 2018 to 2025.
The air component of the strategic nuclear forces will be replenished primarily through the construction of new Tu-160 aircraft. At the moment, it is planned to build fifty such machines, and the first representatives of the new series will be assembled precisely during the future State program. New types of weapons for strategic aviation have already been created, which will have to be produced at least by the end of this decade. In addition, it cannot be ruled out that in the twenties, new missiles of one class or another will enter service.
Not so long ago it became known how the modernization of the fleet of equipment of the ground forces will be carried out. So, until the beginning of the next decade, the Ministry of Defense plans to continue modernizing existing tanks according to current projects. At the same time, by 2020, the army will receive a hundred promising T-14 Armata tanks. After the start of the new State Program, it is expected to start serial production of armored combat vehicles on the new Kurganets-25 and Boomerang platforms. According to some reports, in the course of the future program, the entire personnel of the ground forces will receive "Ratnik" equipment.
The next program will have to provide for the purchase of a large number of aircraft of existing and advanced types. Strategic aviation will receive upgraded and new aircraft of several types. The tactical link will be replenished with Su-30SM, Su-35S, MiG-29 fighters of the latest modifications, etc. It can be expected that in 2018-2025, the Aerospace Forces will receive a noticeable number of the latest Su-57 (T-50 / PAK FA). It should also be assumed that during the indicated period, deliveries of various helicopters, transport aircraft, UAVs, etc. will be carried out. It cannot be ruled out that fundamentally new systems will appear in the field of unmanned aircraft.
The situation should be similar when updating air defense units from the ground forces and aerospace forces. In parallel with the production of already existing complexes of the S-400 "Triumph" or "Pantsir-S1" type, new systems will have to go into series. The most anticipated novelty in this area is the promising S-500 air defense system.
The renewal of the fleet, planned for implementation in 2018-2025, is of great interest. Several costly and ambitious programs are currently being implemented in this area, which are of particular importance to the Navy. According to the available schedules, by 2020 the fleet will receive several multipurpose and strategic nuclear submarines. It can be assumed that the completion of the current construction of the new "Ash" and "Boreyev" will allow the armed forces to place new orders for equipment of this kind.
A serious renewal of the surface fleet should be expected. The shipbuilding industry has already reached a serious pace and regularly delivers new ships of different classes to the customer. During the period under review, these trends will continue. At the same time, it is possible to build ships of new projects. So, by the middle of the twenties, the construction of a universal amphibious assault ship of the new project "Avalanche" or "Priboy", the lead destroyer of the "Leader" type, may start. Also, according to some statements of responsible persons, in the foreseeable future, the launch of the construction of a new aircraft carrier is not ruled out.
Obviously, the new State Program will also touch upon the issue of naval armaments. It is during this period that the promising Zircon anti-ship missile, capable of significantly increasing the combat potential of ships and submarines, will have to enter service. In parallel with such products, the industry will be able to produce missiles of existing types.
From a certain point of view, the new State Armaments Program, designed for 2018-2025, will be similar to the current State Program, which is planned to be completed by 2020. For some time, the industry will have to continue producing older types of products, but at some point it will be supplemented with completely new products and designs. By the end of the program, the proportion of new samples will naturally increase and lead to understandable consequences for the state of the material part of the armed forces.
One of the main goals of the current state program, which ends in 2020, is to bring the share of modern weapons and equipment to 70%. Part of the work in this direction will also go into a new program that will start next year. Due to the partial overlap of the two programs, the modernization process will continue and ultimately give the desired results.
According to known data, during the formation of the program, the required financing of the State program was noticeably reduced. Instead of the 30 trillion rubles initially required by the Ministry of Defense, the treasury will be able to allocate only 17 trillion. Nevertheless, such expenditures will make it possible to significantly update the material part, although some projects, apparently, may undergo one or another reduction. However, despite the existing restrictions, the military department may find opportunities to implement the most ambitious projects, such as the construction of a new aircraft carrier.
According to known data, at present, specialists from several structures are engaged in the formation of the final version of the new State Program. These works should be completed as soon as possible. By the end of autumn, the program will be approved and accepted for execution. The first works in accordance with this document will start at the beginning of next 2018. It cannot be ruled out that by this time the Ministry of Defense will publish certain details of its new plans. Subsequent messages in the context of the State Program will also be of great interest.
