History is an interesting thing, but historical examples quite well allow us to look at quite modern events today. Let it be through the prism of time, but the result is funny.
So, the main message is this: we will not soon see the full-fledged combat use of "miracle weapons" in the old way and "having no analogue in the world", if in a new way. This applies to both the Su-57 and "Armata", and the F-22, F-35 and other products of the genius of foreign designers.
"Wonder weapon" is an attribute of peacetime. An indispensable participant in parades, window dressing, thorough examination, analysis, comparisons, computer modeling. But not more. To fully apply all the innovations of the defense-offensive plan, two things will not give.
To understand the first, let's go 75 years in the past. During the Second World War. Among the participating countries were two powers (thank God, not on our side), which seriously developed the theme of this very "miracle weapon". Without regard to labor costs. As a result, it turned out to be a complete zilch. Moreover, in the case of Japan, the zilch turned out to be quite epic.
Speech, as knowledgeable people have already understood, is about "Musashi" and "Yamato". Huge ships that no battleship in the world really could match. Perhaps with a huge combat potential.
However, the lack of the proper infrastructure for the actions of these ships (air defense cruisers and aircraft carriers with fighters) put a very thick point at the very beginning. Moreover, the price paid by the Americans for the sinking of these ships is generally ludicrous: 28 aircraft.
Explosion "Yamato"
28 planes against two huge ships. If we even roughly estimate the cost and add human losses on both ships, it becomes obvious: it would be cheaper to simply flood superlinkers by opening the kingstones. Or not build at all.
"Musashi" today
Yes, and here it is necessary to mention about 6 torpedoes from the American submarine "Archer-Fish" in "Shinano", the sister ship of the sunken battleships, converted into an aircraft carrier. Absolutely the same inglorious death for nothing.
It is worth recalling here that it’s not that bad with minerals in Japan, they are simply not there. And how the Japanese economy was straining, building these three miracle troughs, must also be taken into account. Definitely, they did not recover soon.
So we look at the price tag.
Second example from a second participant, Germany. In 1944-45, when the Allied industry did not bother at all, building thousands of conventional fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, which successfully finished off the Luftwaffe in the sky and the Wehrmacht on the ground, the Germans built jet aircraft.
"Messerschmitt" Me-262. The world's first turbojet fighter to take part in hostilities.
"Arado" Ar-234. The world's first turbojet bomber to take part in hostilities.
The idea was good, and the planes, to be honest, were very, very good. But 210 units "Arado-234" and 1433 "Messerschmitt-262" did not make the weather and did not show themselves in anything special. Again, due to the fact that there was no proper infrastructure for them. And most of the jets were sentenced on the ground, where they stood without fuel or repairs.
And the planes were built. Again, look at the price tag …
Returning to our time, speaking of the price, it is worth remembering March 27, 1999 and the guys of Zoltan Dani. And also the Soviet radars P-12 "Yenisei" and P-18 "Terek", coupled with the Soviet air defense system S-125 "Neva".
Antiquity, however, they "dropped" the F-117A quite normally. For the entire $ 111 million. To smithereens.
Here, speaking of the price tag, is the essence.
Not a single country, not even the United States, today will afford such expenses as the loss of samples of the latest technology in combat conditions. There is both money and prestige here.
Of course, someone will immediately say that the F-22 was doing something there in Syria. Yes, I did. Escorted bombers, indicated targets. Fortunately, it can. In conditions when everyone was confident in the complete absence of opposition. And where does it come from, opposition, and even the 5th generation aircraft?
The same goes for Israeli F-35s. Naturally, they will do something in the Golan. Again, because there, unlike places less hospitable, they are not in danger.
Accordingly, after the Su-34, Su-35 and Su-33, there is a small likelihood of the appearance in Syria and the Su-57. But very small. For so far there is no proper infrastructure and trained personnel for this aircraft. And at what pace is the war going on, by the time it appears, everything will be over.
The same is true for "Armata". Yes, the tank is promising, but, firstly, expensive, and secondly, it also needs a whole host of specialists. And, what is also important, trained crews that will be able to cope with any problem on their own, without the help of factory specialists. From cranking up a stalled engine to adjusting the flabby electronics that the tank is stuffed with.
Well, or in each part there should be such specialists.
So all wars and conflicts that will occur in the near future (and they will occur) will be conducted according to the principles laid down in the Second World War. The one who has more and cheaper wins.
Was the Tiger tank beautiful? Without a doubt. An excellent fighting vehicle. A class higher than the T-34-85, which was our main tank of the war. But 1354 "Tigers", albeit heavy, with an excellent cannon and good armor, could not do anything. Yes, they covered themselves with glory as excellent tanks from the losing side.
But more than 30 thousand T-34-85 plus 3,000 IS-2 proved to be a more weighty argument.
And yes, “if there’s a war tomorrow,” not the “Armata” will go on the campaign, even if they are available. The Armata is a peacetime tank. And he will be like that for another 10 years, not less, until all "childhood diseases" are overcome, crews, technicians, and electronics engineers are trained. Maybe more.
And the "tanks of war" will go on a campaign. All the same "eternally faulty", but ready for battle T-72. Not T-90, not T-80. T-80 was tried in the first Chechen one. And in the second, they did not even smell in those places. Some of the T-72, if you believe the participants-tankers.
And the same is true for the "probable" ones. Note that the Americans don't bother with tanks at all. They are modernizing the Abrams, and they don't have a headache. Even the Az do not put, let the negro-charging the tank flog. And they will modernize it until the end of time. It is more profitable than coming up with something new, because you can fight the Papuans on the Abrash too, especially when the air is yours.
And the picture is the same with air. The F-35 and F-22 are a bogeyman for us and the Chinese. The main force "if something happens" is all the same F-15 and F-16 in the land and F / A-18 in the Navy. Those who are even older than our MiG-29 and Su-27 will be. And nothing, no one is particularly confused.
And no one in their right mind would send planes worth $ 90 million a piece (in the case of the 35th) to Russian missiles. What if the S-400s are really as good as they say?
We look at the price tag. Plus a loss of prestige.
Actually, no matter how much the good half of the world likes today's Russia, no one will even twitch at us. No matter what. The moment is missed, whatever one may say. And here it is not about the "Armats" and the planes. The point is that nightmare, which, if something happens, will fly out of the mines and containers. And the light of God will definitely cease to be the light.
Looking at the price tag? Not worth it, and so everything is clear. "The whole world is in dust."
And everyone wants to live. Especially those who go to bed first. That is, it will go downwind as ash.
Therefore, there is more than enough to buy, to replace rulers with more accommodating ones, who are ready to lead us again to a bright democracy. Supplemented, yes, but not as often as we would like.
But don't fight. A war with Russia is indeed a highly dubious prospect. With a very incomprehensible ending.
Moreover, everything that is needed for the answer is available.
And all these "Woodwuffs", "who have no analogues in the world" let them be. They are not only good for parades. It is also a demonstration of what we can. We can develop, we can produce, we can apply. The latter - with a certain degree of probability.
Like the Ka-50 in Chechnya.
It is simply frivolous to rely on a "miracle weapon" as on a kladenets sword. 200, 300, or whatever "Armata" is there will not do anything against the NATO tank armada. If you imagine a hypothetical polygon (for example, in Europe), where this can happen. Like 100 Su-57s against the entire shock of the US Air Force. Again, hypothetically.
The Germans and the Japanese proved in their time that the "miracle weapon" hits their own budget more strongly than the enemy. No, it's great that they came up with "Armata". It's good that she is. But there are also several thousand T-72s, which will allow you to calmly debug, put into production and prepare everything that is needed in order for the T-50 to enter the troops normally.
Yes, it will definitely not be tomorrow. And it is not needed tomorrow, at least until there is no queue to measure organelles in terms of length and durability.
Moreover, we will be destroyed by completely different methods.
