Currently, very interesting phenomena are observed on the market for commercial spacecraft launches. One of the relatively young private commercial organizations has not only brought its rocket and space technology to operation, but is also showing the most serious results. Its share in commercial launches is constantly increasing, while established market leaders have to make room. Old and experienced organizations will need to take action to cope with the competition and avoid losing their launch share.
The main threat to the commercial performance of older market entrants in recent years has been US-based private company SpaceX. With a certain financial, organizational and technological support, this organization was able to develop new models of rocket and space technology and then bring it to the stage of practical use. The introduction of non-standard solutions and lucrative commercial offers, complemented by an aggressive advertising campaign, led to the existing results.
Since the beginning of 2017, SpaceX has completed 12 launches of Falcon 9 launch vehicles with payload on board. By the end of the year, it is planned to launch 11 more missiles of this type. Three launches this year were carried out in the interests of NASA. Another missile carried a military payload. The customers for the remaining launches were various commercial organizations from different countries. The situation is similar with the upcoming launches, which will mainly be carried out in the interests of private companies in various industries.
Falcon 9 launch vehicle
For comparison, the Russian space industry has completed 11 launches to date, including 2 from the launch site in French Guiana. 11 more starts are planned for autumn and winter. This year, Russian launch vehicles have launched 3 military vehicles, 4 spacecraft for the International Space Station and one scientific payload into orbit. Two more launches were carried out with the participation of the Arianespace organization. Only one launch was carried out by Russia at the request of a commercial organization.
Not so long ago, SpaceX announced its plans for the near future. Its experts believe that by the end of 2017, Falcon 9 rockets will manage to occupy 45% of the international commercial launch market. The European Space Agency is given 40% in this analysis, Russia - only 15%. Next year, American merchants intend to increase their market share to 60-65%. European launches will not exceed 30% of the total, Russian launches - up to 10%.
Financial indicators of the rocket and space sector are of no less interest. So, last year, companies around the world made a total of $ 2.5 billion from commercial launches. The increase in comparison with the previous year amounted to 300 million. American enterprises earned $ 1, 185 billion on such services, European - $ 1, 152 billion. Commercial rocket launches have brought Russia only $ 130 million. At the same time, private SpaceX alone earned about three times more than the entire Russian space industry.
It should be noted that the rocket and space industry is not limited to commercial launches alone. Payload for military, scientific or other non-commercial purposes still has a large share in the overall structure of launches, and therefore, in a known way, affects the rocket and space sector. However, one should not forget the fact that commercial launches, as opposed to "state" ones, allow companies and countries to make serious money on advanced technologies.
Thus, in the current situation, recognized market leaders need to take certain measures aimed at maintaining a favorable situation for themselves and obtaining the maximum possible market share. In doing so, it is necessary to take into account the recent successes of SpaceX merchants claiming leadership positions. Taking into account the peculiarities of the work of this company, as well as the current trends in the development of the market, one can imagine which projects should be developed and which areas should be given special attention.
As events of recent years show, operators of commercial spacecraft are interested in medium-class launch vehicles capable of launching up to 5-10 tons into low-earth orbit. At the same time, an important factor influencing the choice of a contractor is the cost of launch. American specialists involved in the implementation of the ideas of the return of individual units have already managed to obtain certain results in this area, which has become a clear competitive advantage.
Over the next few years, Russia will have to use several types of launch vehicles that it already has. This technique has already shown itself in a good way, and therefore can remain in operation. Nevertheless, the events of recent years may show that the existing Russian missiles are far from fully meeting the requirements of potential customers, and there is a need to create new models.
The principle of building missiles Proton Medium and Proton Light
Russian organizations are currently developing several projects of promising launch vehicles at once, suitable for solving several basic tasks. Thanks to their appearance, Russia will be able not only to ensure the existence of a constellation of spacecraft or conduct various scientific programs, but also count on an increase in its share of the world market for commercial launches.
Back in 2015, the leaders of the rocket and space industry announced the launch of the Soyuz-5 project, which should result in the emergence of a promising medium launch vehicle. Subsequently, the main Russian enterprises were busy forming the general appearance of the rocket and the technical specifications for it. At the same time, approaches to the implementation of the project were determined with a certain participation of foreign countries, and the approximate deadlines for completing the main stages of the project were announced.
Just a couple of weeks ago it became known that the Soyuz-5 project had entered the preliminary design stage. In the course of this work, it is planned to develop a version of the rocket equipped with one RD-171M engine in the first stage and two RD-0124 engines in the second. It was reported that the preliminary design will be ready in November this year. Apparently, after that the industry will be able to start a full-fledged design and preparation of all the necessary documentation.
According to existing plans, at the very beginning of the next decade, the modernization of one of the launches will begin at the Baikonur cosmodrome, after which it will be able to ensure the operation of the Soyuz-5 rockets. The first start will take place no earlier than 2022-23. One of the first payloads for a promising rocket will be the Federation spacecraft. No earlier than the mid-twenties, the rocket will be taken into full operation. It can be launched from both Baikonur and Vostochny. Having received such a launch vehicle, Russian specialists will be able to send up to 15-17 tons of cargo of one kind or another into low-earth orbit.
A little over a year ago, the leadership of the State Space Research and Production Center (GKNPTs) named after M. V. Khrunicheva spoke about plans to create promising launch vehicles, originally intended for commercial use. New missiles of domestic development will have to compete with foreign counterparts in the field of launching five-ton geostationary artificial earth satellites. It is noteworthy that, commenting on new projects, the leaders of the Center spoke directly about creating a response to SpaceX's developments.
GKNPTs them. M. V. Khrunicheva and International Launch Services talked about the development of two projects at once, designated as "Variations of the Proton rocket". These developments were given the working names Proton Medium and Proton Light. As it is clear from the names of the projects, their goal is the creators of the light and middle class, capable of solving problems in different market niches. To simplify and reduce the cost of the project, it was proposed to use the components and assemblies of the serial Proton-M rockets that are currently in operation in the widest possible way.
According to the information of 2016, the "Proton" medium "was supposed to represent the basic" Proton-M "without a standard second stage. Its own two stages will have to be complemented by the Breeze-M upper stage. As part of the "light" project, it was proposed to redesign the design of the serial first stage. Instead of six motors installed in the side hull units, only four should be used, which will result in a corresponding change in the main characteristics. A middle-class rocket, according to calculations, will be able to send up to 5.5 tons of payload into a geostationary orbit, and a light class - up to 4.17 tons.
Comparison of new missiles of the "Proton" family with foreign counterparts
A year ago, it was reported that the first Proton Medium rocket will be able to go into space for the first time in 2018. It was supposed to be launched from site No. 24 of the Baikonur cosmodrome. The first launch of Proton Light was supposed to be performed in 2019. Such a quick implementation of a bold project should have been facilitated by the widest use of ready-made components and assemblies. As a rebuilt Proton-M, the new "rocket variations" did not need a significant number of specially designed parts. The development of the required new devices, in turn, should not have taken long.
According to the latest reports received at the end of August, at the moment, the middle version of the updated Proton was chosen for implementation. At the same time, the timing of the project was changed. So, the first flight of Proton Medium was postponed to the beginning of 2019. The timing of the start of assembly and launches of the "light" launch vehicle has not yet been specified. As part of the new project, the Center. Khrunicheva plans to use the principle of the so-called. dispatching. Thus, a specific person will be responsible for internal and external cooperation, as well as for the technological chain.
The modernization projects for the Proton-M rocket are still under development and the new technology is not yet ready for operation. However, their first commercial successes are already known. International Launch Services, which will organize the operation of Proton Light and Proton Medium rockets, announced that it has received an order from Eutelsat Communications. One of the largest satellite communications operators intends to launch its new device into orbit with the help of a promising Russian rocket.
Over the past several years, very interesting trends have been observed in the international market for commercial spacecraft launches. Not so long ago, private development companies were simply not taken seriously, but now the situation has changed radically. The businessmen not only managed to bring new models of equipment to the market, but also showed very remarkable results. For several years, the most successful company, using some assistance from third organizations, managed to win a significant part of the market.
It is too early to say how long this market redistribution will last, and what results it will lead to. However, it is already clear that recognized industry leaders, whose positions are threatened by the activities of new participants, will take all the necessary steps and try to maintain the most advantageous situation for themselves. This means that in the very near future, new information about the plans of the rocket and space industry and its new developments of various kinds may be made public.
