For the first time since 2008, Russia and Turkey signed a contract for the supply of military products. Earlier, Russian enterprises have repeatedly supplied various systems to the Turkish army, but such contracts have not been signed over the past few years. In addition, in the fall of 2015, in response to a treacherous attack by the Turkish Air Force, Russia temporarily ceased all military cooperation. The situation has gradually stabilized, and now the two countries are ready to resume cooperation. This was confirmed by the emergence of a new contract.
On Tuesday, September 12, the first reports in the context of the new agreement appeared in the Turkish and then in the Russian press. The media quoted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying that not so long ago a contract was signed for the supply of S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems. The head of state also noted that the first contribution has already been made under this contract. In the future, according to the Turkish president, Russia will have to issue a loan to the partner.
Soon, the press service of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation confirmed the signing of a contract for the supply of air defense systems. However, she did not specify the details of this agreement. The Service left the priority right to comment on the agreement to the customer. At the same time, she stressed that the new contract is in line with Russia's geopolitical interests.
After the first reports of the signing of the contract, some of its details were published. Thus, the Kommersant edition, using its unnamed sources in military-political circles, was able to obtain a number of additional information about the treaty. According to these sources, the contract for the supply of the S-400 systems was the result of political agreements at the highest level. Negotiations on the future agreement were led by Presidents Recep Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. The heads of state discussed this issue during their meetings this spring. It was the participation of the presidents that made it possible to solve all the problems and sign a contract within a year after the start of negotiations.
According to Kommersant, the new contract implies the supply of four divisions of the Triumph complexes. The total value of these products will exceed US $ 2 billion. Considering the cost of the contract, the publication recalls a similar agreement with China. The same four S-400 divisions cost the Chinese treasury $ 1.9 billion. Moreover, this contract was only signed after three years of negotiations.
Sources of Kommersant argue that the current situation with the export contract has several specific features. Thus, the agreement does not mention the allocation of a loan for Turkey, which leads to the need for additional negotiations on a separate agreement. In addition, the Turkish side wants not only to receive ready-made anti-aircraft systems, but also to establish their production at their enterprises. The transfer of a number of critical technologies to a NATO member state does not seem appropriate. Nevertheless, the possibility of some localization of production is not yet excluded.
The delivery dates have not yet been officially announced, but certain estimates have already appeared in this regard. According to known data, now the Almaz-Antey aerospace defense concern is engaged in the production of Triumph complexes for the Russian armed forces. The assembly of similar systems will begin next year as part of a Chinese order. The production facilities of the concern are loaded until the very end of the decade. Thus, the construction of an air defense system for Turkey can begin only in a few years.
The configuration of the export complexes ordered by Turkey has not yet been specified. The S-400 air defense system includes a significant number of various components, both ground-based and anti-aircraft guided missiles. What kind of products and in what quantities will be sent to a foreign customer is not reported.
Quite quickly, the Russian-Turkish agreement was criticized by third countries. The United States was the first to respond to such news. The spokesman for the US military department Johnny Michael said that Washington has already conveyed to Ankara its concerns about the new contract. In addition, he noted that the best option for Turkey would be an anti-aircraft system that meets NATO standards.
The answer was not long in coming. Soon R. T. Erdogan in a harsh manner commented on the position of the Pentagon. He said that Turkey intends to independently make important decisions, and will do so in the future. “We ourselves are the masters of our house,” the Turkish president concluded his comment. The US has not yet responded.
The new contract for the supply of the S-400 Triumph air defense system is of interest for a number of reasons. As noted, this is the first time since 2008 that Turkey has ordered Russian weapons and equipment. In addition, the S-400s have not yet become a mass export product. At the moment, only Russia has these complexes, and in the foreseeable future, China will also. Turkey, in turn, will become the world's third operator of the "Triumph", as well as the first among the NATO countries.
The Russian-Turkish agreement can also be considered a point in the protracted history of Ankara's purchase of anti-aircraft systems. For a long time, the Turkish armed forces wished to purchase modern foreign-made air defense systems. Over the next few years, a potential customer got acquainted with commercial offers and chose the most profitable one. This was not without political problems.
From a certain time, Turkey began to lean towards Russian and Chinese-made systems, but this was immediately followed by a reaction from overseas. Washington warned Ankara against such a choice, threatening with possible technical and organizational problems. Turkey offered to get out of this situation with the help of supplies of American Patriot air defense systems, but this option did not suit foreign partners.
In 2013, the Turkish army selected the winner of the competition. In accordance with its decision, in the very near future a contract was to appear for the supply of Chinese HQ-9 systems, partly reminiscent of the Russian S-300P complexes. The decisive competitive advantage of the HQ-9 air defense system was the relatively low price and China's willingness to transfer technology for assembling equipment in Turkey. However, a firm contract was never signed, which forced the Turkish authorities to choose a supplier again.
In the middle of last year, new negotiations started, during which Russia acted as a potential supplier. The subject of a future contract was to be the latest S-400 complexes, the export of which was allowed only a few years ago. The negotiations were carried out at the highest level, which made it possible to speed up the necessary processes. As a result, the supply agreement was signed less than a year after the start of the consultations. This can be considered a real record.
It should be noted that negotiations on a new contract started immediately after the improvement of relations between the two countries. Let us remind you that after a Turkish fighter attack on a Russian bomber, which ended in the death of one of our pilots, Moscow curtailed all cooperation with Ankara in the military field. As a result of the well-known internal and external political events of the recent past, Turkey was forced to do everything possible to restore cooperation. To date, her actions have led to the emergence of a contract for the supply of anti-aircraft systems.
Information published in recent days shows that the new deal is beneficial to the Russian side for a number of reasons. First of all, this is another replenishment of the order portfolio, bringing money to the industry and the state. It is noteworthy that the "Turkish" contract is much more expensive than the previous "Chinese" one, and in addition, Turkey will buy equipment on credit. The economic benefits of this are understandable.
The political side of the agreement raises certain questions. Not long ago, Turkey forced Russia to take a series of harsh measures, but now the situation has changed, and relations between the countries have returned to normal. And yet, since the first information about the possible sale of the S-400 appeared, various fears have been regularly expressed, directly related to the unreliability of Ankara as a military-political partner.
Nevertheless, as noted by the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, the signed contract fully meets the interests of Russia. This means that even before the start of negotiations, the Russian side assessed all the consequences of a possible deal and drew conclusions. The Turkish authorities did not receive a refusal, which indicates that there are no risks to Russian interests.
The preconditions for the emergence of a new Russian-Turkish contract and its consequences will be a topic of discussion and controversy for a long time to come. You should also expect different estimates and assumptions in the context of lead times, technical aspects, etc. And only one fact, directly following from the availability of the Turkish order, is beyond doubt. Russia maintains a leading position in the international market for air defense systems and is not going to give up its positions. The next order - especially one received from a NATO country - will only strengthen the position of the Russian industry, as well as serve as an advertisement addressed to potential customers.
